Way Too early playoff predictions

[Iabeastmode]

West Sioux vs District 9 Champion
SCC vs West Lyon
DNH vs South Hamilton
Van Meter vs I-35

PC vs MEPO
West Branch vs Wilton
Regina vs Bellevue
Sum-Fred vs Cascade

Thoughts???

 

[GoEagles23]

If DNH beats Regina, the Regals are out.

Without Cook, they might lose to Williamsburg

 

[Charles86]

So they will try to avoid district matchups in first round? Lake City to Inwood is about 3 hours. That’s a darn long bus ride.

 

[Charles86]

These are mine thoughts. AP win beat out Sum-Fred for district title. But, that’ll be Sum-Fred’s only loss and South Hamilton will have at least two losses and their RPI won’t be enough. Treynor beats MV for their district title. I just don’t know if the state will have another team come up to play West Lyon or have them travel anywhere else but to a West Sioux. Usually that district has played each other immediately bc of distance. And I think there’s gonna be more teams getting in from the eastern half so I have no idea who the state will send to the west bracket. But I took a shot and tried to avoid having three teams from district 4 matching up. It’s gonna be a crazy finish to the regular season so who the heck knows what the playoff picture will look like in a month.

West Bracket

West Lyon @ West Sioux
Aplington-Parkersburg @ South Central Calhoun
Treynor @ Van Meter
I-35, Truro @ Pella Christian

East Bracket

Mediapolis @ West Branch
Cascade, Western Dubuque @ Wilton
Sumner-Fredericksburg @ Dike-New Hartford
Regina, Iowa City @ Bellevue

 

[GoEagles23]

Sign me up

 

[JoshAllen25]

I-35, Truro @ Pella Christian

This won't happen because they are in the same district actually.

 

[Charles86]

This won't happen because they are in the same district actually.

Ah true. Well damnit

 

[VanderHoops]

This won't happen because they are in the same district actually.

West Lyon and West Sioux are also same district (but mileage could make it an exception?)

D1 is still kind of a mystery:
West Sioux, West Lyon, and Western all got spanked by BH-RV (the best 2A team).
West Sioux & West Lyon beat a mediocre Sioux Center.
Western Christian lost to 4A power Heelan by a reasonable score (19-0)
Unity Christian suddenly looks surprisingly decent.

West Lyon/West Sioux winner will probably determine the D1 champ.
Western will need the 3 way tie and hope for RPI boost.
Unity as the spoiler.

 

[rc1963]

If DNH beats Regina, the Regals are out.

Without Cook, they might lose to Williamsburg

Re DNH - Probably true, unless something really unexpected happens in district play.

Re W'burg - I don't think this hinges on Cook. Arndt did a good job, and if needed the offense will gel. The W'burg game will hinge on defense. They need to minimize Hazen-Fabor's impact and make some big plays on the passing game. But a win against an 0-3 team won't move the RPI needle very far. The focus now really has to change to running the district and beating DNH. This game is a footnote.

 

[rc1963]

These are mine thoughts. AP win beat out Sum-Fred for district title. But, that’ll be Sum-Fred’s only loss and South Hamilton will have at least two losses and their RPI won’t be enough. Treynor beats MV for their district title. I just don’t know if the state will have another team come up to play West Lyon or have them travel anywhere else but to a West Sioux. Usually that district has played each other immediately bc of distance. And I think there’s gonna be more teams getting in from the eastern half so I have no idea who the state will send to the west bracket. But I took a shot and tried to avoid having three teams from district 4 matching up. It’s gonna be a crazy finish to the regular season so who the heck knows what the playoff picture will look like in a month.

West Bracket

West Lyon @ West Sioux
Aplington-Parkersburg @ South Central Calhoun
Treynor @ Van Meter
I-35, Truro @ Pella Christian

East Bracket

Mediapolis @ West Branch
Cascade, Western Dubuque @ Wilton
Sumner-Fredericksburg @ Dike-New Hartford
Regina, Iowa City @ Bellevue

So, you're picking Wilton to win D5 and MEPO to wildcard? That might go the other way around.

Still not convinced we're going to have 3 out of D4. And how do we get Bellevue and WB both with home games? Since we have 9 D's don't we end up with a champ not getting a home game? (assume maybe the one with the lowest RPI?) I suppose that could be Regina, if they actually get in.

 

[Charles86]

So, you're picking Wilton to win D5 and MEPO to wildcard? That might go the other way around.

Still not convinced we're going to have 3 out of D4. And how do we get Bellevue and WB both with home games? Since we have 9 D's don't we end up with a champ not getting a home game? (assume maybe the one with the lowest RPI?) I suppose that could be Regina, if they actually get in.

I was going off the assumption that Regina gets the last spot and Bellevue finished with one loss this season to WB. And yes, I will stick with Wilton winning the district. Of course, their game against Mediapolis is on the road so you never know how that will go. Injuries could play an important role at the point of the season. But, for now I will stay with Wilton.

 

[Charles86]

I was going off the assumption that Regina gets the last spot and Bellevue finished with one loss this season to WB. And yes, I will stick with Wilton winning the district. Of course, their game against Mediapolis is on the road so you never know how that will go. Injuries could play an important role at the point of the season. But, for now I will stay with Wilton.

Plus this is just an early look/idea of the playoff picture. No one knows how it'll turn out, but it's fun to talk about it and try to somewhat figure it out. To me, there's going to be more teams from the eastern side of the state getting, so how does the state handle that? DNH and maybe AP are close enough to I-35 that they could go west, but there's plenty more teams east of them that will get in, so how do they get figured out?

 

[Football211]

So, you're picking Wilton to win D5 and MEPO to wildcard? That might go the other way around.

Still not convinced we're going to have 3 out of D4. And how do we get Bellevue and WB both with home games? Since we have 9 D's don't we end up with a champ not getting a home game? (assume maybe the one with the lowest RPI?) I suppose that could be Regina, if they actually get in.

I was going off the assumption that Regina gets the last spot and Bellevue finished with one loss this season to WB. And yes, I will stick with Wilton winning the district. Of course, their game against Mediapolis is on the road so you never know how that will go. Injuries could play an important role at the point of the season. But, for now I will stay with Wilton.

SK could play spoiler in that District with Wilton and Mepo as well. I see them taking down one of those two most likely.

 

[MepoDawg#]

SK could play spoiler in that District with Wilton and Mepo as well. I see them taking down one of those two most likely.

SK plays @ Wilton next week and @ Mepo the last week of regular season. They lost to Pekin at home 31-12. They could play spoiler, but I don’t see it. Then Wilton plays @ Mepo the week after playing SK.

 

[Football211]

SK plays @ Wilton next week and @ Mepo the last week of regular season. They lost to Pekin at home 31-12. They could play spoiler, but I don’t see it. Then Wilton plays @ Mepo the week after playing SK.

That was without their 1000 yard back from last year crawford, who is also their best defensive player. Not saying they will, but SK is definitely big enough and physical to compete with Mepo or Wilton. More likely Wilton in my opinion though, judging by Wilton didn’t beat Mid Prairie too handily.

 

[rc1963]

OK, reluctantly, here's my early playoff prediction

West
Ogden @Van Meter
Mt Ayr @west lyon
I35 @ Treynor
W Sioux @ SCC

East
Woodward Granger @ WB (I know it's a geographic stretch)
Wilton @ DNH
Bellevue @ Sumner F'burg
PC @ MEPO

Barring injury, it's the Bear's year. WB over Van Meter in the Final.

 

[Charles86]

OK, reluctantly, here's my early playoff prediction

West
Ogden @Van Meter
Mt Ayr @west lyon
I35 @ Treynor
W Sioux @ SCC

East
Woodward Granger @ WB (I know it's a geographic stretch)
Wilton @ DNH
Bellevue @ Sumner F'burg
PC @ MEPO

Barring injury, it's the Bear's year. WB over Van Meter in the Final.

I'm not sure about Mt Ayr at West Lyon. That's almost a 5 hour bus ride. I would think that'd be too far for the state to do that. How will they decide who's home and away if two teams have same record? By the alphabet? I will say that some of these teams will be traveling a good distance, but I can see the state having West Lyon and West Sioux play one another just because of their proximity to other teams in 1A.

 

[rc1963]

I'm not sure about Mt Ayr at West Lyon. That's almost a 5 hour bus ride. I would think that'd be too far for the state to do that. How will they decide who's home and away if two teams have same record? By the alphabet? I will say that some of these teams will be traveling a good distance, but I can see the state having West Lyon and West Sioux play one another just because of their proximity to other teams in 1A.

Yeah, I made my picks based on my district champs and who I thought could maintain RPI.

For the first round I assume the District champ gets the home field (except the 9th district champ, will that be decided on record? RPI?)

So, some of the geography may not be right - I think the championship bracket, really the final 4 will be the same (again, we have a lot of football to play, a lot can happen.)

 

[Charles86]

I am going to take a crack at it. I really do think AP is going to knock off Sum-Fred at home later in the season to win the district. I am going to stick with Wilton winning the district over Mediapolis. I believe West Sioux will take the district over West Lyon, but because of distance, those two will just play one another in the first round. Treynor will win their district and get the automatic bid. Again, like rc, there is still so much football to be played. I took Cascade and Regina out of my bracket that I had posted the other week, based on how things look now. A lot left to go, but here's mine as of now. I also tried not to have any other district matchups in the first round. I-35 to SSC is just over two hours. I am going to say if AP wins their district, they would be the lowest RPI district champ and be on the road based on location. I could also maybe see them traveling to DNH the first round. Those two played in week 2 but are not in same district. If that was the case, then you could just switch SF and have them go to West Branch, which is around 2 hours.

West Bracket

West Lyon @ West Sioux
Mt. Ayr @ Treynor
I-35, Truro @ South Central Calhoun
South Hamilton @ Van Meter

East Bracket

Sumner-Fredericksburg @ Dike-New Hartford
Aplington-Parkersburg @ West Branch
Bellevue @ Wilton
Mediapolis @ Pella Christian

 

[Iabeastmode]

Most probable quarter final matchups in my opinion.

West Sioux vs South Central Calhoun
Van Meter vs Interstate 35

Dike-NH vs Bellevue
Pella Christian vs West Branch

 

[Charles86]

Most probable quarter final matchups in my opinion.

West Sioux vs South Central Calhoun
Van Meter vs Interstate 35

Dike-NH vs Bellevue
Pella Christian vs West Branch

Yeah I could see these matchups. Would be some great games on the east side. West Sioux is going to be a headache for anyone on the west side. They aren't overly huge, but so are sound and athletic. It will be a great game when they travel to West Lyon on Oct. 5.

 

[Charles86]

There wasn't any change on the west side as far as the bracket goes after the first week of district play. South Central Calhoun looks to be a major player out west, but their competition still hasn't been that great. It really won't be until the playoffs begin. West Sioux and West Lyon will settle the district title in Inwood on Oct. 9. West Branch will now be on the road during the first round, and will be an extremely tough matchup for the host. That's really the only change I see on the east side, as providing a big collpase, Bellevue should win the title. A game with Cascade looms, but I expect them to take care of business. It would be something though to have a 3 way tie if Cascade were to beat Bellevue and WB beat Cascade, but we'll pump the brakes on that for now. I'm also not sure how the state will decide home and away after the first round if two teams have same record. Will these use RPI or alphabet? The postseason manual is not out yet. For now, I'm using who is higher in the RPI. Week 5 isn't out yet, so I'm using week 4. Also, are they still doing if you played on road first round, you get to host the next round, or was that just when there were 32 teams? As district champ I would think PC would host in the quarters because of their undefeated district record, assuming they beat I-35.

Playoffs: First Round

West Bracket

West Lyon @ West Sioux
Mt. Ayr @ Treynor
I-35, Truro @ South Central Calhoun
South Hamilton @ Van Meter

East Bracket

Sumner-Fredericksburg @ Dike-New Hartford
Aplington-Parkersburg @ Bellevue
West Branch @ Wilton
Mediapolis @ Pella Christian

Playoffs: Quarterfinals

West Bracket

Treynor @ West Sioux
South Central Calhoun @ Van Meter

East Bracket

Dike-New Hartford @ Bellevue
West Branch @ Pella Christian

 

[JoshAllen25]

So how is seeding in the post season going to work this year? RPI?

 

[rc1963]

So how is seeding in the post season going to work this year? RPI?

I don't think it can follow RPI - too many travel considerations. I think they'll have to make the first round as fair as possible considering distances. The real question to me is the dome matchup, do you switch to something like RPI or at least some re-seed, or maintain the east v west?

 

[JoshAllen25]

I don't think it can follow RPI - too many travel considerations. I think they'll have to make the first round as fair as possible considering distances. The real question to me is the dome matchup, do you switch to something like RPI or at least some re-seed, or maintain the east v west?

I hope they keep it East v. West. It's always better to be able to be watching who you will play.

 

[rc1963]

I hope they keep it East v. West. It's always better to be able to be watching who you will play.

So if Van Meter and South Central Calhoun (or West Lyon, or West Sioux) end up number 1 and 2, you want them to meet in the semis rather than the final?

Arguably it's difficult to ever say who is number 1-4 coming into the dome, so not sure how that would look. Just kind of hate the pre-destined format that they could never meet.

 

[JoshAllen25]

So if Van Meter and South Central Calhoun (or West Lyon, or West Sioux) end up number 1 and 2, you want them to meet in the semis rather than the final?

Arguably it's difficult to ever say who is number 1-4 coming into the dome, so not sure how that would look. Just kind of hate the pre-destined format that they could never meet.

Yep. We could solve that by seeding them opposite before the playoffs tho. Not disagreeing, just throwing it out there.

 

[Charles86]

There has been a little shuffle because of some recent results but not much. Osage is in the drivers seat in district 3 after beating SF last night. They have a nicely balanced offense. I believe SF will get in based on RPI. South Hamilton suffered a tough defeat at home to SSC last night, but I also think they get in based on their RPI. Obviously there’s a lot of football left, so district 3 could see a couple more upsets and who knows what it’ll look like, but I’m making these pairings based on who’s at the top of the district as of now, and who will still have a high enough RPI. Treynor got a big win over Underwood last night and they will host a hard-nosed Missouri Vallet team next Friday. That should decide district 9, as they will most like get just one team in. I went with Wilton before the season started to win their district, so these pairings are on the assumption that I thought correctly. They travel to Mepo next week, so that district will be settled next Friday. I’m attending West Sioux at West Lyon next Friday and my pick is West Sioux to get a huge road win to seal district 1. West Lyon will still get in, or at least to me they should. One district champ will be on the road, and the one with the lowest RPI should be it. Hopefully the state gets the post season manual put on the website soon, so we know how pairings will go after the first round. Going by the recent RPI, I think Osage is the lowest RPI district champ. I may have to make adjustments to this when week 6 RPI comes out next week, it here’s what I’m going with for now.

West Bracket

West Lyon @ West Sioux, Hawarden
Mt. Ayr @ Treynor
I-35, Truro @ South Central Calhoun
South Hamilton @ Van Meter

East Bracket

Osage @ Dike-New Hartford
Sumner-Fredericksburg @ Bellevue
West Branch @ Wilton
Mediapolis @ Pella Christian

Again, not sure how the state plans on deciding quarterfinal games with who’s home and away. Slight adjustments made need to be made once week 6 RPI comes out, and a couple things will become much more clear in a few districts after week 7.

District 1: West Sioux @ West Lyon
District 5: Wilton @ Mediapolis
District 9: Missouri Valley @ Treynor

 

[Iabeastmode]

Post Week 6 Update.

West
Treynor at West Sioux
West Lyon at SCC

Mount Ayr at Pella Christian
I-35 at Van Meter

East

South Hamilton at Osage
Sumner-Fred at DNH

Wilton at Bellevue
West Branch at Mediapolis

 

[Charles86]

I’m just

Post Week 6 Update.

West
Treynor at West Sioux
West Lyon at SCC

Mount Ayr at Pella Christian
I-35 at Van Meter

East

South Hamilton at Osage
Sumner-Fred at DNH

Wilton at Bellevue
West Branch at Mediapolis

I’m just curious as to what the state does with the two nw iowa teams if both get in playoffs. That’s a long distance for teams to travel. I wonder if the state keeps them in the area in the first round and they play each other. If it did turn out West Lyon at SSC, I would take West Lyon in that game.

 

[Iabeastmode]

I’m just


I’m just curious as to what the state does with the two nw iowa teams if both get in playoffs. That’s a long distance for teams to travel. I wonder if the state keeps them in the area in the first round and they play each other. If it did turn out West Lyon at SSC, I would take West Lyon in that game.

The IAHSAA is very predictable, look at where SCC has gone to play in the playoffs the last few years, they always go Northwest. I’ll try and post my map with pins on each predicted playoff team and you will see why I came up with matchups. State always takes into consideration ease of travel aka interstate/4 lane highway travel.

 

[Charles86]

The IAHSAA is very predictable, look at where SCC has gone to play in the playoffs the last few years, they always go Northwest. I’ll try and post my map with pins on each predicted playoff team and you will see why I came up with matchups. State always takes into consideration ease of travel aka interstate/4 lane highway travel.

What do you think are the current playoff scenarios after week 7? About the same, or some changes?

 

[Iabeastmode]

What do you think are the current playoff scenarios after week 7? About the same, or some changes?

Good question, we are at a new way of doing things. I've lost a little confidence in my ability to guess/predict what the playoff scenario will look like. I still feel Osage and Treynor, the last rated RPI district champions (Unless DNH would lose to Regina) will not play each other in the first round of the playoffs. This to me will cause the 1A playoffs to be not done correctly based of of how the IAHSAA wants to do it. I will have a problem if Mount Ayr travels to Treynor in the first round. I do not think that either one of these teams are quarterfinal material. I strongly believe that Cascade or Regina would beat either one of these teams by 35 points. So Cascade and Regina don't get invited to the playoffs, but 1 of these teams will be in the top 8???? Makes it a joke!!!!! It's reasons like this why I hate the current 16 team playoff schedule. Everyone is worried about blowouts in 32 team playoffs, wait until you see how bad Treynor or Mount Ayr get beat in the quarterfinals. Will get a good look at Mount Ayr this week with their Van Meter game, I'm guess 35 point clock rolling at the start of the 3rd qtr. Please do not take this the wrong way, I'm not trolling Mount Ayr or Treynor I'm just saying this systems doesn't move any closer to allowing the best 16 teams into the playoffs.

 

[Charles86]

Good question, we are at a new way of doing things. I've lost a little confidence in my ability to guess/predict what the playoff scenario will look like. I still feel Osage and Treynor, the last rated RPI district champions (Unless DNH would lose to Regina) will not play each other in the first round of the playoffs. This to me will cause the 1A playoffs to be not done correctly based of of how the IAHSAA wants to do it. I will have a problem if Mount Ayr travels to Treynor in the first round. I do not think that either one of these teams are quarterfinal material. I strongly believe that Cascade or Regina would beat either one of these teams by 35 points. So Cascade and Regina don't get invited to the playoffs, but 1 of these teams will be in the top 8???? Makes it a joke!!!!! It's reasons like this why I hate the current 16 team playoff schedule. Everyone is worried about blowouts in 32 team playoffs, wait until you see how bad Treynor or Mount Ayr get beat in the quarterfinals. Will get a good look at Mount Ayr this week with their Van Meter game, I'm guess 35 point clock rolling at the start of the 3rd qtr. Please do not take this the wrong way, I'm not trolling Mount Ayr or Treynor I'm just saying this systems doesn't move any closer to allowing the best 16 teams into the playoffs.

Yeah I just can't see Treynor and Osage playing in the first round because that's a long way away. I do believe those two are facing each other to see who can get the higher RPI, because if Regina doesn't make it, one of those two will be playing on the road. Right now Treynor is like 3 spots ahead of Osage from the week 6 rankings. We will have to see how close they are when week 7 comes out. But, one of those two will be on the road, and right now it'd be Osage. I will say that Osage looks to have a very dynamic offense. Three guys over 600 yards receiving and a back approaching 800 yards. Qb has over 2,000 pass yards. I'm not sure their defense is very elite, but their offense could give people problems in the playoffs. Will be interesting to see where they end up.

 

[Charles86]

I did report that Bellevue beat North Cedar 29-6 on Saturday, but looking at the boxscore on Quikstats, and Hunter Clasen does not appear for that game. Did he get injured, or did he have a prior engagement since the game got moved to Saturday and wasn't able to play?

 

[JoshAllen25]

Any thoughts on PC's spot in the RPI? Will they move up or down and should a 5-2 team really be that high?

 

[Charles86]

Any thoughts on PC's spot in the RPI? Will they move up or down and should a 5-2 team really be that high?

It is interesting, because I think that playoffs will go by RPI on whoever gets to host in the quarterfinals. They could be 8-2 and potentially host a 10-0 team because their RPI is higher.

 

[Charles86]

It is interesting, because I think that playoffs will go by RPI on whoever gets to host in the quarterfinals. They could be 8-2 and potentially host a 10-0 team because their RPI is higher.

But they gave Oskaloosa their only loss so far, beat Regina, lost to Van Meter and PCM. So their losses are to two undefeated and top teams in their class. To say they're worthy of being ranked that high in the RPI is a fair argument as well. Because it's not like they had cupcakes in non-district so it is interesting.

 

[Iabeastmode]

Any thoughts on PC's spot in the RPI? Will they move up or down and should a 5-2 team really be that high?

PC will be very relevant come playoff time. They lost to 2 very good teams. I would argue they are among the top 6 1A teams that have a legit chance to be in the Semi-Finals. Those 6 would be (Van Meter, DNH, SCC, Bellevue, West Branch, Pella Christian).

 

[JoshAllen25]

PC will be very relevant come playoff time. They lost to 2 very good teams. I would argue they are among the top 6 1A teams that have a legit chance to be in the Semi-Finals. Those 6 would be (Van Meter, DNH, SCC, Bellevue, West Branch, Pella Christian).

Hmmm. How do you think they will match up in a Van Meter rematch or a DNH game? I think they will roll over I-35, so probably by that point they will be sitting pretty good.