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updated playoff thoughts

fmclonefan

Freshman
Nov 21, 2006
708
34
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Kid will do a much more thorough job of this then I will do, but I just sat down to look at the standings, the upcoming matchups, and looking at the wildcard possibilities. I am prognosticating what the final records will be. Here is what I have come up with:

D1:
1.Storm Lake 7-0
2.SB-L 5-2
3.Heelan 5-2
(SB-L wins head-to-head; 10-7 game earlier this season)

D2: sorta a crap shoot
1. Webster City 6-1
2. Boone 6-1
3. DCG 5-2
4. Gilbert 5-2

D3:
1. Xavier 7-0
2. Benton Van Horne 6-1

D4: another crap shoot
1. West Delaware 6-1
2. CCA 5-2
3. Assumption 5-2
4. Marion 5-2
(I think CCA will win the point diff avg as they are already up on that and have Central Clinton for last game which they should get the max. Marion ends with West Delaware and Assumption and already trail by a fair bit).

D5:
1. Solon 7-0
2. Oskaloosa 6-1

D6:
1. Pella 7-0
2. Norwalk 6-1
3. Carlisle 5-2

D7:
1. Creston 7-0
2. Carroll 6-1
3. Glenwood 5-2

So, this leaves the wild card contenders all at 5-2. These include:
Heelan
DCG
Gilbert
Assumption
Marion
Carlisle
Glenwood

Though it might be fun to go through the wildcard selection criteria, so let's see what happens.
Criteria: 1. None would be district champs.
2. All would be 5-2.
3. So, on to the next one which is head-to-head (district or non-district). Gilbert beat Carlisle, so they are out. Predicting Assumption beats Marion, so they are out. Predicting DCG beats Gilbert, so they are out. This leaves us:
Heelan
DCG
Assumption
Glenwood.
4.Now we go to point diff avg. Right now we have:
Assumption 9.8
Glenwood 6.0
DGC 5.0
Heelan 4.8

Glenwood probably has the easiest two games left. So they will probably be in. Other 3 all have pretty tough games, so hard to see who gets the other spot, but with Assumption up at this point will go with them. That leave DCG and Heelan out.

Wow, close call on these. But, may all change by next week anyway. I did this kinda quickly, so could be mistakes in there. I would trust Kid's info more then mine anyway.
 
CCA plays Assumption this week. No need for point differential or any tie breaker scenario. Barring any crazy finish from Marion (beating Assumption and WD) CCA or Assumption is not making the playoffs.
 
Agree with everything you have mentioned above, but will throw this out there for thought...don't sleep on WSR for a wildcard spot. Wins over South Tama and Charles City to close out the regular season leaves the GoHawks at 5-2 as well. One of those losses is by 2 points, 17 point wins over ST and CC would give them one of the better point totals of the 5-2 bunch.
 
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