updated playoff projections

[fmclonefan]

Started looking at some district standings and kinda went from there tonight. These are my best guesses as to the order of finish in each district. A couple of them have points involved. Also predicted the first round matchups. Tried to do as much interdistrict as possible, but the 2-3 matchups of districts 1 and 2 are severally pushing the 125 mile limit, but rest are well within the limit.

District 1:

1. Heelan
2. Sergeant Bluff
3. BH-RV
4. Spencer

District 2:

1. Carroll
2. Humboldt
3. Greene County
4. Webster City

District 3:

1. West Delaware
2. Waverly - Shell Rock
3. Independence
4. Charles City

District 4:

1. Xavier
2. Solon
3. Western Dubuque
4. Dubuque Wahlert

District 5:

1. Clear Creek Amana
2. Davenport Assumption
3. Washington
4. Fairfield

District 6:

1. Ballard
2. Bondurant - Farrar
3. Gilbert
4. Newton

District 7:

1. Pella
2. Carlisle
3. Norwalk
4. Knoxville

District 8:

1. Dallas Center - Grimes
2. Creston
3. Winterset
4. Adel Desoto- Minburn

4 @ 1
Spencer @ Sioux City Heelan
ADM @ Carroll
Webster City @ Ballard
Charles City @ Xavier
Dubuque Wahlert @ West Delaware
Knoxville @ Dallas Center - Grimes
Newton @ CCA
Fairfield @ Pella

3 @ 2
BH-RV @ Humboldt
Greene County @ Sergeant Bluff - Luton
Independence @ Solon
Western Dubuque @ Davenport Assumption
Gilbert @ Waverly SR
Winterset @ Bondurant - Farrar
Washington @ Carlisle
Norwalk @ Creston

 

[KidSilverhair]

Goodness gracious, this is tricky to figure. That mileage limitation for the first round is playing havoc with the potential northwest Iowa matchups. Will the state hold fast to that 125 miles? If so, the 126 miles between Humboldt and Hull could force a district rematch between Boyden Hull Rock Valley and Sergeant Bluff Luton. Likewise, Heelan may find themselves on an unmanageable island unless Harlan is able to top ADM for the last spot in District 8.

Okay, so I will strictly abide by the 125 miles with my guesses, and not a mile more. Sorry, District 1. Here's what I expect:

District 1
1- Heelan
2- Sergeant Bluff-Luton
3- Boyden Hull Rock Valley
4- Spencer (taking a 3-way tie with LeMars and Denison-Schleswig)

District 2
1- Carroll
2- Humboldt
3- Greene County
4- Webster City

District 3
There's a chance of a five-way tie at 4-2 here. If Charles City defeats Waverly Shell Rock and Decorah downs a depleted and injury-stricken West Delaware on Friday, all four plus Independence would end up 4-2. I leave it to someone else to figure out the ranking if that happens.

1- West Delaware (takes head to head over Waverly Shell Rock)
2- Waverly Shell Rock
3- Independence
4- Charles City (takes head to head over Decorah)

District 4
1- Xavier (takes title on points tiebreaker)
2- Solon (takes second on points tiebreaker)
3- Western Dubuque
4- Dubuque Wahlert

District 5
1- Clear Creek Amana
2- Winner of Davenport Assumption-Washington (Assumption, I guess)
3- Loser of Assumption-Washington (Washington)
4- Fairfield

District 6
Here's another possible five-way tie. If Grinnell beats Ballard, Grinnell could join the four teams below at 4-2. Crazy, man!

1- Ballard
2- Bondurant Farrar (takes second head to head over Gilbert and Newton)
3- Gilbert (head to head over Newton)
4- Newton

District 7
1- Pella
2- Carlisle
3- Winner of Norwalk-Knoxville (I say Norwalk)
4- Loser of Norwalk-Knoxville (Knoxville)

District 8
1- Dallas Center Grimes
2- Creston
3- Winterset
4- Winner of ADM-Harlan (let's say ADM)


First round, 4 at 1

Spencer at Heelan (district rematch; I can't find any others within 125 miles unless Harlan gets in)
ADM at Carroll
Wahlert at West Delaware
Charles City at Xavier
Newton at Clear Creek Amana
Knoxville at Ballard
Fairfield at Pella
Webster City at Dallas Center Grimes

First round, 3 at 2

BHRV at Sergeant Bluff Luton (district rematch, unless the state stretches that extra mile to Humboldt)
Winterset at Humboldt
Gilbert at Waverly Shell Rock
Independence at Solon
Western Dubuque at Davenport Assumption
Norwalk at Bondurant Farrar
Washington at Carlisle
Greene County at Creston

 

[KidSilverhair]

Upon further review, fmclonefan, we almost agree exactly right down the list. I just didn't stretch the BHRV-Humboldt travel, and we switched the Knoxville/Ballard/Webster City/DCG matches around.

I swear I didn't study your picks before I made mine. Spooky, huh?

 

[fmclonefan]

Well KidSilver, we are either both really good....or both really off....could be either! I think that this shows that the first round matchups are kinda presenting themselves this way. We both agreed on the finishes in about every district. The points are the hard part to figure out. That District 6 race is a crazy one. I had Newton previously as finishing the district first, now after last week I have them as fourth.

 

[BFBondwest]

What about BF beating Newton last night. the final score was BF 46 Newton 30. Pressure is now on Ballard to beat Grinnell for the District title. BF running back Petersen has cross the 2,000 yard mark with his 327 yards last night mainly out of the wildcat. That game was a 2pt after touchdown.their was no extra points at all. Can you figure it out here is how the iowa high school has it for this district as of 0ct 18.


Ballard
Bondurant farrar
Gilbert
Grinnell
Newton
Now as of today base on the tie break newton seem to be osut as of right now base on the Iahsaa website

 

[fmclonefan]

As the bcmoore rankings thread shows, it looks very good for B-F. They helped themselves tremendously with the win last night and the Gilbert beating of Grinnell helped them as well. Essentially, if Ballard beats Grinnell then B-F will finish second in district, but if Grinnell beats Ballard, then B-F will win the district. So, they are sitting pretty either way. Gilbert and Newton will both probably win big next week. So, the Ballard -- Grinnell game holds all the cards in the district.

 

[PNation]

To answer the question about District 3 about a 5 way tie, it would go to straight points

Currently the standings are like this

WSR +41
West Del +33
CC +30
Indee +19 (They play non district so this is their total)
Decorah +7

So for example is CC and Decorah had 13 point wins the final standings would be

CC +43
WSR +28
Decorah +20
West Delaware +20 (lose out on head to head)

and Indee would be out, so all of the TV stations saying that Indee guaranteed a playoff spot are technically not correct but it would take quite a bit for them not to get in. Waverly and West Delaware are in no matter what.

 

[screwloose]

I took a quick gander at 3A again and I think you guys have the exact 32 teams in and in the right spots. That being said, jinx. Also think you have every match-up correct, Kid...double jinx.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Thanks for the vote of confidence, screw. Although you and I have both been around long enough to know something weird always happens in Week 9 to just shake up those ironclad projections ...

 

[BFBondwest]

Bondurant farrar plays Winterset for a Non District Game. This Friday. I do not think they will play each other twice back to back.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Honestly, I don't think it matters much if they play this week. If the best travel scenario means the same two teams play again on Wednesday, they'll play again.

That said, if there's a combination of games that can send Winterset somewhere else without unduly affecting some other team's travel distance, the state might - might - take that "5 days later" rematch into account. I really don't think that's very high on their list of priorities, but I'll grant they might consider it.

But you've got Greene County having to travel somewhere, and Washington having to travel somewhere, and Waverly-Shell Rock having to host ... you start running out of options.

 

[BFBondwest]

I Listen to a interview with legg the head of the IAHSAA and he said they are going to not try to do repeat games if can.

 

[fmclonefan]

Good point BF, they could switch these games around:

Winterset @ Bondurant - Farrar
Washington @ Carlisle

So then it would be:

Winterset @ Carlisle
Washington @ Bondurant - Farrar (115 miles)

That would work.

 

[BFBondwest]

We do not know what the people at Iahsaa Will do. But that could be right. I have no clue I would pick those and maybe Norwalk and Knoxville. We won't know until the end of this week.

 

[screwloose]

I've been doing this a long time, I have a pretty good idea what they're going to do. KidSilverHair has been watching the pairings since they started the doing them in the Old Testament League about 2500 years ago. Knowing the 125-mile rule, provided they stick to it and the loose, no rematch rule, the puzzle isn't as hard to figure out as you think. There's only one or two games that could go one way or the other. But those games can only really produce two or three different scenarios provided the teams we think are going to win this Friday, in fact, do win.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Yeah, screwloose, remember when they paired Elisha and Moses in the first round, when we were so sure it was going to be Elijah instead? Oh, we laughed at ourselves so much over that playoff faux pas ...

 

[screwloose]

I do remember.

Stealing material here...how about that game when Sodom and Gamorrah ended in a 69-69 tie?

 

[BFBondwest]

I would take out Washington and replace them with Fairfield 110.5 miles on 163 1 hour and 48 minute drive.

 

[fmclonefan]

You can't make that switch as Fairfield is a #4 seed and they need to play a #1 seed. Washington is in same district as Fairfield and will likely finish #3 or #2 (if they happen to beat Assumption this Friday). So, if they finish #3, then they will be playing a #2 seed from a different district.

 

[Ford26]

Originally posted by BFBondwest:

I would take out Washington and replace them with Fairfield 110.5 miles on 163 1 hour and 48 minute drive.

i don't know if Assumption will beat Washington or not -- i kinda don't think they will, to be honest. Washington is tough against the run and is pretty versatile on offense. I would be surprised if BF would play a #4 seed. BF would be in trouble against Washington, too, I think.

 

[BFBondwest]

Let Just wait a find out what all happen the Ballard and Grinnell Game that key. Grinnell must win to get in. My friend is kind of hoping Ballard wins on one hand and the other he hoping they will lose. I have no clue Who would you pick He picking Ballard to Beat Grinnell and so am I.

 

[bigfridaynite]

Its my understanding that Washington finally is at full strength for the 1st time all year so they could be a tough draw.
I guess they'll find out Friday how good they are.

 

[PNation]

I struggle to make formal picks because there is so much that can happen in districts 3 and 6, both of these have teams that could go east or west. For example district 3 if Waverly were to get the 1 seed they would probably get Webster City but if they are the 2 seed they would probably get Western Dubuque, which in turn messes up teams like Ballard and Assumption, there are just too many variables right now.

 

[screwloose]

They certainly could send Webster City to Waverly, but I'd suspect they keep them as west as they could just in case they(WC) were needed as an opponent later on for Sioux City Heelan.

 

[Vroom_C14]

Here's the map with district possibilities...

 

[KidSilverhair]

Originally posted by PNation:
I struggle to make formal picks because there is so much that can happen in districts 3 and 6, both of these have teams that could go east or west. For example district 3 if Waverly were to get the 1 seed they would probably get Webster City but if they are the 2 seed they would probably get Western Dubuque, which in turn messes up teams like Ballard and Assumption, there are just too many variables right now.

If Waverly gets the 2 I can't see them getting Western Dubuque. The Bobcats would be almost the only #3 within range to travel to #2 Assumption (Washington doesn't count, same district). That's assuming Waverly and Assumption both in second place, which, as you say! may not necessarily happen ...

 

[Team10]

Kidsilver Dav Assumption could play Washington again. The state said they would attempt to not match up districts if possible but did not say they would not. Look at District #1. Heelan would only have Harlan and their own district team as a possible #4 to play. If Harlan does not make it they will have to play their own #4. The 125 mile is firm first and the same district is not a firm rule for first round anymore. I think we will see at least 3 -4 games of district match ups in the first round.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Um, yeah, you're not going to see three or four district rematches in the first round. There might be two, both in northwest Iowa, but that will be it. Almost certainly.

The state's top priority is limiting travel to 125 miles, that's true. But they also state definitively that they'll do everything possible to prevent district rematches, in both the first and second rounds, if they can abide by that travel limit. Look at the postseason manual. They say a team might actually travel past a closer possible opponent to play another (within that 125 miles), if playing that nearby opponent would force two other teams to play a district rematch. It's right there in black and white.

You are correct in saying if Harlan doesn't get in, Heelan will almost certainly have to play a district rematch. There just aren't any other fourth-place finishers within 125 miles of Sioux City. It also looks like Boyden-Hull-Rock Valley and Sergeant Bluff may have to play, as BHRV is 126 miles away from other possible opponent Humboldt. Those are the only two district rematches I see.

The state is simply not going to set up Assumption and Washington in the first round. If Assumption is second in D5 and Western Dubuque third in D4, that's the game we'll see. Washington can travel to Carlisle, or even Bondurant-Farrar if that works out better for other games. Look at my projected pairings - if everything shakes out Friday the way I say (which it won't, because it never does, but just go along with it for now), with the exception of those two northwest Iowa district rematches I've got cross-district games everywhere, all of them within 125 miles. The state is absolutely not going to assign any other district rematches just because they're closer. The manual, in fact, says they will do the exact opposite.

 

[screwloose]

I'm totally with you Kid.