Updated Playoff Guesser ver. 2.0.3

[KidSilverhair]

Quality argument, and your math checks out. For 3A, anyway. But let's dig a little deeper.

in Class 2A, your private school district records are:

Dyersville Beckman 2-1
Waterloo Columbus 0-4
West Burlington Notre Dame 0-3
Kuemper Catholic 2-1

That's a losing record in 2A, 4-9. But let's bump Beckman and Columbus up a class, sure.

In 1A (and I admit I'm guessing that Woodward Academy is private, maybe it's not):

Regina 4-0
Western Christian 2-1
Unity Christian 2-1
Pella Christian 2-1
St. Edmonds 2-2
Woodward Academy 0-4
Des Moines Christian 1-2

That's 13-11 in 1A (if Woodward doesn't count, it's 13-7, so that would be in your favor).

And Class A (again, guessing Clarinda Academy is private)

St. Albert 3-1
Gehlen Catholic 0-4
Bishop Garrigan 4-0
Bishop Newman 2-2
Clarinda Academy 0-4

Another losing record at 9-11 (or 9-7 without Clarinda). I'm sure those bullies from Garrigan and Newman would learn their lesson in 1A.

I will give you the benefit of the assumption that you wouldn't force private schools in 8-player to field an 11-player squad.

I actually agree with you that private schools have a certain advantage in the makeup of their student body. You're right, it's foolish to argue that point - it's obvious. Public schools have to take every student that enroll from their district, while private school students are self-selected, generally highly motivated, and typically have an overall higher level of family support. I agree with you on those points. I don't really agree those advantages are unfair when it comes to competitive balance, or that a multiplier is an appropriate action to take.

But yeah, that's purely a difference of opinion. I don't think there's as much of a problem as others do, that's all. I would still need to be convinced. (Plus, what do you do with Dowling? Move them into the Iowa Conference with Wartburg and Central and Simpson?)

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

I don't care if the private schools are in the highest class. The multiplier wouldn't effect the private schools already in 4A (as far as reclassification). And no, I think most states let the 8 player schools just stay 8 player. I think Woodward and Clarinda are technically private? But I really don't know, that's a special situation. Although, I did see something that one of them (Woodward) is like all boys or 90% boys or something, but since Iowa goes strictly by student body numbers, they have the advantage of having twice the number of guys to choose from. Someone was arguing that during basketball season, not quite sure if it's true.

I wouldn't have guessed the smaller private schools have losing records in those classes, but I would point out they would still be winning if you took the two academies out of the equation, 1A and A are a lot better, and then in 2A remember that West Burlington-Notre Dame is another different situation because West Burlington is public and I believe the majority of the team is West Burlington (but I'm not 100% sure).

If we evened out the classes a bit, a multiplier wouldn't bump that many teams up. But like, Xavier is way up there right now on the 3A list. They are one of the top teams and if you add the private school advantage, it becomes unfair. It's not only football but basketball is just as bad or probably worse, and then you get into the other sports and it just repeats season after season. The schools that are protected by a multiplier are like the eastern schools that are currently getting destroyed by big 3A private schools on a weekly basist. I don't have a 100% fool proof answer. I'm not suggesting like a 2.5 multiplier or a bump up for every private school. Just a simple 1.5 (or 50% addition). It's not like I'm saying Regina should be in IC West's district.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Besides the point. I was just saying I agree with him because he started to make it a political issue instead of a fairness issue.

But since someone asked for how the private schools are doing. I'll start with this year. Someone correct me if I miss a couple. I'll post their district records and point differential in district.

Xavier: 4-0 +90
Assumption: 3-0 +147
Heelan: 3-1 +65
Wahlert: 2-1 +5

If that's all of them in 3A (and I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong) that makes the private schools 12-2 so far this season with a combined point differential of +307. But obviously, those kids just happen to be way more talented and it has nothing to do with private school advantages. It's probably just this year and only in Iowa and this isn't a common occurrence.

Anyway, as I said to start this argument, it will be fun when they finally put in the multiplier (or bump them up or whatever) and even out the classes. The current system makes it fun because people can make these guesses, but I think more people are just annoyed that there are no brackets.

Let me see if I can update this for you a little bit

Xavier 5-0 +108
Heelen 5-1 +71
Assumption 4-2 +164
Wahlert 2-4 -46
16-7 +297
State Championships 5

D-C-G 5-1 +134 318 Open enrolled students in
Harlan 5-1 +166 157 Open enrolled students in
Pella 6-0 +179 109 Open enrolled students in
Gilbert 5-1 +48 198 Open enrolled students in
21-3 +527 782 Open enrolled students in
State Championships 13

I can't wait until open enrollment ends and this can go back to being fun again.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I can't wait until open enrollment ends and this can go back to being fun again.

I see what you did there.

 

[captain_sparrow]

Stand by for Playoff Guesser v. 2.1 in just a few days! Guaranteed results!

(Guarantee not valid in Iowa)

Looking forward to it. I wish I had the time to sit down and figure it out for all schools, myself. But that's a pipedream. Would be interesting to see all the possible schools within the travel limit for each school, after you've predicted where each team will finish in its district. For instance, what 4-seeds, as you've predicted, can travel to what 1-seeds, as you've predicted.

 

[makelovenotwar]

Solon vs Maquoketa

While I am pretty confident in a Solon win tonight, Maquoketa is quietly putting together a pretty good season and a win (upset that it would be) would put them into a 2 seed for the play offs.

Never would have predicted this prior to the season.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Solon vs Maquoketa

While I am pretty confident in a Solon win tonight, Maquoketa is quietly putting together a pretty good season and a win (upset that it would be) would put them into a 2 seed for the play offs.

Never would have predicted this prior to the season.

Maquoketa pulls out the win over Solon. Nice job by the Cardinals - looks like they'll get to host somebody on October 28.

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

Let me see if I can update this for you a little bit

Xavier 5-0 +108
Heelen 5-1 +71
Assumption 4-2 +164
Wahlert 2-4 -46
16-7 +297
State Championships 5

D-C-G 5-1 +134 318 Open enrolled students in
Harlan 5-1 +166 157 Open enrolled students in
Pella 6-0 +179 109 Open enrolled students in
Gilbert 5-1 +48 198 Open enrolled students in
21-3 +527 782 Open enrolled students in
State Championships 13

I can't wait until open enrollment ends and this can go back to being fun again.

Let me see if I can update this for you a little bit

Xavier 5-0 +108
Heelen 5-1 +71
Assumption 4-2 +164
Wahlert 2-4 -46
16-7 +297
State Championships 5

D-C-G 5-1 +134 318 Open enrolled students in
Harlan 5-1 +166 157 Open enrolled students in
Pella 6-0 +179 109 Open enrolled students in
Gilbert 5-1 +48 198 Open enrolled students in
21-3 +527 782 Open enrolled students in
State Championships 13

I can't wait until open enrollment ends and this can go back to being fun again.

Lol! Did you just compare all of the private schools to only the top public schools? That's logical. This is another reason I'd like to see the multiplier come in. Private school parents/coaches have gotten so cocky. That's like if an average 3A team played a 1A schedule for a year and got a big head about it.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Lol! Did you just compare all of the private schools to only the top public schools? That's logical. This is another reason I'd like to see the multiplier come in. Private school parents/coaches have gotten so cocky. That's like if an average 3A team played a 1A schedule for a year and got a big head about it.

I looked at the open enrollment numbers and picked schools with large numbers of OE kids. Want a multiplier? Close open enrollment. It is what Illinois does. You know one of the vast majority of Midwestern states with a multiplier. It isn't being cocky, I freely admit private schools have advantages, they also face significant disadvantages. If the system worked the way you portray it to work Xavier would have twice as many students as they do, fairly certain they aren't keeping tuition paying students out to keep a precious 3A BEDS count.

 

[BFJUSTICEBIGBLUE]

Benton comunity destroy grinnell last night that basic limts them from playoff here the standing as of last night

Gilbert
Ballard
Bondurant-farrar
Benton Comunity
Grinnell
Nevada
Newton

The only for grinnell to get in beat ballard and Gilbert then it goes to points

next weeks gammes are down blow

Ballard at Nevada
Gilbert at Grinnell
Newton at Bondurant-Farrar
Oelwein at Benton Community ( (ND))

last gamesof the regular season

Benton Community at Gilbert
Bondurant-Farrar at Winterset ( (ND))
Grinnell at Ballard
Nevada at Newton

Just for D6
If ballard and gilbert doesn't losed another game
Some I'm going with non district match up

My guess is
Carlisle @Gilbert
Bondurant farrar @pella
Benton comunity @ Cedar rapid Xavier
boone @Ballard


What would happen if Ballard and Gilbert losing their next two games aThat will cause a mess than it will be decide by points A lot of shift could happen

Last nights score in D6


Ballard 49, Bondurant-Farrar 23
Benton Community 49, Grinnell 13
Gilbert 49, Nevada 6
Pella 47, Newton 7 ( (ND))

p.s I also can see a rematch of last year first round but it will be Bondurant farrar @ Norwalk

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

I looked at the open enrollment numbers and picked schools with large numbers of OE kids. Want a multiplier? Close open enrollment. It is what Illinois does. You know one of the vast majority of Midwestern states with a multiplier. It isn't being cocky, I freely admit private schools have advantages, they also face significant disadvantages. If the system worked the way you portray it to work Xavier would have twice as many students as they do, fairly certain they aren't keeping tuition paying students out to keep a precious 3A BEDS count.

Well, fine then, I agree. Maybe bump up the schools with ridiculous open enrollment numbers. Just as long as they fix the system that is easily taken advantage of so each school is on a more level playing field and we don't have a handful of teams winning by 50 each game and always meeting at the dome.

 

[cubbie-man]

In Cedar Rapids any kid can go to any school. Public or Private

 

[fmclonefan]

Let me see if I can update this for you a little bit

Xavier 5-0 +108
Heelen 5-1 +71
Assumption 4-2 +164
Wahlert 2-4 -46
16-7 +297
State Championships 5

D-C-G 5-1 +134 318 Open enrolled students in
Harlan 5-1 +166 157 Open enrolled students in
Pella 6-0 +179 109 Open enrolled students in
Gilbert 5-1 +48 198 Open enrolled students in
21-3 +527 782 Open enrolled students in
State Championships 13

I can't wait until open enrollment ends and this can go back to being fun again.

Cid, where did you find these open enrollment #'s? I'm in no way disputing them, just think it is interesting to see. Are these #'s for k-12th grade?

 

[paxregis]

Ohio is attempting to take a very nuanced approach to competitive balance. Their latest proposal factors in open enrollment, time in district for OE students & F&R lunch numbers. All schools (private included) would get to designate a feeder junior high and students from the feeder school are not subject to any multipliers.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Well, fine then, I agree. Maybe bump up the schools with ridiculous open enrollment numbers. Just as long as they fix the system that is easily taken advantage of so each school is on a more level playing field and we don't have a handful of teams winning by 50 each game and always meeting at the dome.

So move a 7-0 team with a +322 scoring margin up?

 

[cidhawkeye]

In Cedar Rapids any kid can go to any school. Public or Private

Same in Iowa City, Des Moines, Pella, Waterloo and pretty much any town.

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

So move a 7-0 team with a +322 scoring margin up?

Scoring margin shouldn't have anything to do with it. What I am saying is, the competition aspect is crap right now. The ISHAA has to see the playing field isn't level and adjust. I was responding to you complaining about the open enrollment numbers of the public schools.

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

Cid, where did you find these open enrollment #'s? I'm in no way disputing them, just think it is interesting to see. Are these #'s for k-12th grade?

I would like an answer to this one too.

 

[cidhawkeye]

I would like an answer to this one too.

It's distributed by the state and is on their website. As far as scoring margin goes I was just following your lead as you were the first to use it in this thread to show the private school advantage. My apologies for trying to use the format you chose when you were attempting to prove your viewpoint. I will try not to utilize your technique when it doesn't support what you are trying to show.

 

[fmclonefan]

Thanks cid. The open enrollment numbers are very interesting. The public schools in our largest cities as well as small districts in rural areas are the ones taking a beating. In full disclosure cid, you didn't account for the students enrolling out of the districts; example, Gilbert has 198 students coming in but has 130 students going out of district and this is k-12, so they are gaining about 5 students per grade. Some districts do have bigger gains, such as DCG with 318 coming in and 86 going out. Thus they gain about 18 students per grade. The gain/loss for most districts in pretty negligible. Some are bigger though. Marion has a gain of 450 students and are 0-7 this year, so doesn't always translate into success on the football field. Johnston, Waukee, and West Des Moines all have a net loss of students, by the way.

I'm not taking any sides in this argument as I don't see a resolute solution anyway, just found these numbers interesting. I think things will stay just as they are.

 

[KidSilverhair]

The huge majority of the open-enrollment into the Marion district is into their home-school program, by the way. Districts are required to coordinate with home-schooled students, if those individual parents want, in order to provide science lab work/extracurricular/other opportunities that may be limited for home schoolers. Marion's program is pretty robust, so they pull a lot of those kids from outside the district. Of course, those home-school numbers aren't going to add very much to the athletic department/sports team numbers.

 

[fmclonefan]

Must be different then Pella because there are and have been some very talented home schoolers come through in all sports (this year's football includes Austin Schulte and Will Warner, both all staters).

Regardless, I was relaying what the numbers said. That's a boatload of extra income for the Marion district as the state pays the district for those students, homeschooled or open enrolled from another district as long as the homeschoolers are dual enrolled. Somebody at Marion is very smart to have this rolling.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Thanks cid. The open enrollment numbers are very interesting. The public schools in our largest cities as well as small districts in rural areas are the ones taking a beating. In full disclosure cid, you didn't account for the students enrolling out of the districts; example, Gilbert has 198 students coming in but has 130 students going out of district and this is k-12, so they are gaining about 5 students per grade. Some districts do have bigger gains, such as DCG with 318 coming in and 86 going out. Thus they gain about 18 students per grade. The gain/loss for most districts in pretty negligible. Some are bigger though. Marion has a gain of 450 students and are 0-7 this year, so doesn't always translate into success on the football field. Johnston, Waukee, and West Des Moines all have a net loss of students, by the way.

I'm not taking any sides in this argument as I don't see a resolute solution anyway, just found these numbers interesting. I think things will stay just as they are.

Tip of the hat to you on this one. I did look at the net on these, just felt if others wanted to research it they could do the homework as well. Since "everybody" and the "majority of midwestern states" have taken action on this subject I had doubts that he would go look at the facts on this.

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

It's distributed by the state and is on their website. As far as scoring margin goes I was just following your lead as you were the first to use it in this thread to show the private school advantage. My apologies for trying to use the format you chose when you were attempting to prove your viewpoint. I will try not to utilize your technique when it doesn't support what you are trying to show.

What? I used the scoring margin to prove how the 3A private teams are dominant. You weren't using my format at all by showing the scoring margin in 4 of the best public schools. I was using ALL of the private schools in the class. I guess some schools would rather have success handed to them than work for it. "Screw the public schools, we like our unfair advantage, and we like winning by 50 every Friday! Suggesting to make it fair? We'll cry about it until you give in!!!"

 

[cidhawkeye]

What? I used the scoring margin to prove how the 3A private teams are dominant. You weren't using my format at all by showing the scoring margin in 4 of the best public schools. I was using ALL of the private schools in the class. I guess some schools would rather have success handed to them than work for it. "Screw the public schools, we like our unfair advantage, and we like winning by 50 every Friday! Suggesting to make it fair? We'll cry about it until you give in!!!"

I took 4 of the schools that benefit from OE. Sorry it doesn't fit your narrative. How about getting your school to get better?

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

I took 4 of the schools that benefit from OE. Sorry it doesn't fit your narrative. How about getting your school to get better?

Lol, I'm sure those were four random schools.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Lol, I'm sure those were four random schools.

Not random at all, missed where I claimed that.