Updated 4A Playoff Scenarios

[KidSilverhair]

One game left, and we know a lot more than we did.

4A-1

Spencer v Storm Lake​

Webster City v Denison-Schleswig​

Le Mars v Fort Dodge​

SPENCER wins the district with a win, or with losses by both Webster City and Le Mars; a loss plus a Webster City win and a Le Mars loss gets them second; a loss plus a Webster City loss and a Le Mars win means a four-way tie. A loss plus wins by both Webster City and Le Mars knocks them out of the district race.​

WEBSTER CITY is in with a win, and wins the district if Spencer also loses; a loss means the best they can do is a tie, and they miss the playoffs if Spencer and Le Mars both win.​

DENISON-SCHLESWIG can finish second with a win plus wins by Spencer and Le Mars. A win in any other case gets them in a tie. They are out with a loss.​

FORT DODGE can get in a tie with a win plus a Webster City loss; their RPI compared to Denison-Schleswig would determine second place.​

LE MARS is in with a win plus wins by Webster City and Storm Lake. They are in a four-way tie with wins plus wins by Denison-Schleswig and Storm Lake.​

STORM LAKE has been eliminated.​

4A-2

Waverly-Shell Rock v Decorah​

Western Dubuque v Mason City​

Marion v Waterloo East​

WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK has won the district.​

WESTERN DUBUQUE is in with a win. A loss plus a Marion win creates a tie, which still looks good for the Bobcats. A loss and a Marion loss means they're out for an automatic berth.​

MASON CITY is in with a win plus a Marion loss. A win plus a Marion win means a tie, but that probably would go to Western Dubuque (I can never predict how much RPI can move from week to week, though).​

MARION can get in a tie for second with a win plus a Mason City win, but it looks impossible for RPI to get them in.​

WATERLOO EAST and DECORAH have been eliminated.​

4A-3

Iowa City Liberty v Clinton​

North Scott v Mount Pleasant​

Burlington v Fort Madison​

LIBERTY has won the district.​

NORTH SCOTT is second.​

BURLINGTON, FORT MADISON, CLINTON and MOUNT PLEASANT have been eliminated.​

4A-4

Xavier v Oskaloosa​

Pella v Cedar Rapids Washington​

Clear Creek Amana v Newton​

XAVIER has won the district.​

CR WASHINGTON gets second with a win; despite media reports, they haven't locked down second place yet. A loss plus a Newton win creates a tie, and Newton should get the RPI nod there. They'd be out with a loss and a Newton loss.​

NEWTON can only reach a tie with a win plus a Pella win, but that might be enough for second place.​

PELLA takes second with a win plus a Newton loss; a win and a Newton win creates a tie, but Pella's RPI is not good.​

CLEAR CREEK AMANA and OSKALOOSA have been eliminated.​

4A-5

Carlisle idle​

Bondurant-Farrar v Norwalk​

Indianola v Boone​

CARLISLE has won the district.​

The winner of BONDURANT-FARRAR vs NORWALK takes second place.​

(Indianola [with a win] and Bondurant-Farrar [with a loss] are in pretty good RPI position for at-large spots; probably not Norwalk, though.)​

BOONE, INDIANOLA, and (of course) PERRY have been eliminated.​

4A-6

Lewis Central v Winterset​

Glenwood v Dallas Center-Grimes​

DM Hoover v CB Thomas Jefferson​

LEWIS CENTRAL wins the district with a win. A loss and a Glenwood loss gets them second; a loss and a Glenwood win forces a three-way tie, but Lewis Central is in excellent RPI position to get them the title in that case.​

WINTERSET can win the district with a win plus a Glenwood loss. A win and a Glenwood win means a three-way tie, but Winterset probably gets left out in that situation. A loss and a Glenwood loss creates a three-way tie for second, but that's still not a good situation for Winterset.​

GLENWOOD is in with a win plus a Lewis Central win. A win plus a Winterset win means a tie, and likely the playoff spots go to Lewis Central and Glenwood. A loss and a Lewis Central win means a tie for second, and again that looks good for Glenwood. A loss and a Lewis Central loss means Glenwood is out for an automatic berth.​

DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES can force a tie for second with a win plus a Lewis Central win, but their RPI chances are very low.​

DES MOINES HOOVER and COUNCIL BLUFFS THOMAS JEFFERSON have been eliminated.​

 

[KidSilverhair]

Who's in for sure right now?

Xavier (district champ)
Waverly-Shell Rock (district champ)
Iowa City Liberty (district champ)
Carlisle (district champ)
Lewis Central
Western Dubuque/Mason City winner
Bondurant-Farrar/Norwalk winner

In with a win:
Spencer (district champ)
Webster City
CR Washington
Glenwood

At-large candidates:
Indianola
Fort Madison
Newton
Bondurant-Farrar (with a loss)
Western Dubuque (with a loss)
Burlington (with a win)
Probably some others (Le Mars with a win, Norwalk with a loss, maybe even Clear Creek Amana with a win)

Round 1 hosts:
D-1 champion
Waverly-Shell Rock
Iowa City Liberty
Xavier
Carlisle
D-6 champion (even if Lewis Central doesn't win the district, they probably host the first round)
---
Bondurant-Farrar (if they lose to Norwalk)

My brain hurts trying to figure out the other hosts, especially before the updated RPIs come out tomorrow.

 

[ronsss]

glenwood plays dallas cg , its not a given that glenwood wins it..though they probably would be favored by a touchdown.

u can allmost give spencer the win over storm lake.,,,,everyone is beating storm lake this year.

webster city is probably a heavy favorite to beat denison , but i am not to sure about this one either....

cedar rapids washington is probably a 1 pt favorite over pella....

Bondurant-Farrar is probably 7 pt fav over nevada, if 11 does not play for nevada, taking bondurant-farr, may still win if 11 plays, but tougher...11 is a difference maker and very fast

western dubuque probably 3 touchdown fav over mason city

so my predictions-
in- spencer, western dubuque

probably-webster city

not sure- cedar rapids washington, glenwood, bondurant and nevada.


also...looks like maybe a couple of weaker teams get in, where stronger teams that deserve it , will not

 

[Bluebondurantjays]

Who's in for sure right now?

Xavier (district champ)
Waverly-Shell Rock (district champ)
Iowa City Liberty (district champ)
Carlisle (district champ)
Lewis Central
Western Dubuque/Mason City winner
Bondurant-Farrar/Norwalk winner

In with a win:
Spencer (district champ)
Webster City
CR Washington
Glenwood

At-large candidates:
Indianola
Fort Madison
Newton
Bondurant-Farrar (with a loss)
Western Dubuque (with a loss)
Burlington (with a win)
Probably some others (Le Mars with a win, Norwalk with a loss, maybe even Clear Creek Amana with a win)

Round 1 hosts:
D-1 champion
Waverly-Shell Rock
Iowa City Liberty
Xavier
Carlisle
D-6 champion (even if Lewis Central doesn't win the district, they probably host the first round)
---
Bondurant-Farrar (if they lose to Norwalk)

My brain hurts trying to figure out the other hosts, especially before the updated RPIs come out tomorrow.

The bondurant farrar announce is just confused now with lemars beating Spencer. He had us win against Indiana and a win against Norwalk. Bondurant most likely will host Weber city. But that's Spencer Lost throw a wrench into this RPI thing. Just wait and seeing

 

[ISUChip]

My brain hurts trying to figure out the other hosts, especially before the updated RPIs come out tomorrow.

At this moment, Bondurant-Farrar and North Scott would be the two runner-up hosts.

 

[mtdew_fever]

One game left, and we know a lot more than we did.

[COLOR=%s]4A-1[/COLOR]

Spencer v Storm Lake​

Webster City v Denison-Schleswig​

Le Mars v Fort Dodge​

SPENCER wins the district with a win, or with losses by both Webster City and Le Mars; a loss plus a Webster City win and a Le Mars loss gets them second; a loss plus a Webster City loss and a Le Mars win means a four-way tie. A loss plus wins by both Webster City and Le Mars knocks them out of the district race.​

WEBSTER CITY is in with a win, and wins the district if Spencer also loses; a loss means the best they can do is a tie, and they miss the playoffs if Spencer and Le Mars both win.​

DENISON-SCHLESWIG can finish second with a win plus wins by Spencer and Le Mars. A win in any other case gets them in a tie. They are out with a loss.​

FORT DODGE can get in a tie with a win plus a Webster City loss; their RPI compared to Denison-Schleswig would determine second place.​

LE MARS is in with a win plus wins by Webster City and Storm Lake. They are in a four-way tie with wins plus wins by Denison-Schleswig and Storm Lake.​

STORM LAKE has been eliminated.​

[COLOR=%s]4A-2[/COLOR]

Waverly-Shell Rock v Decorah​

Western Dubuque v Mason City​

Marion v Waterloo East​

WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK has won the district.​

WESTERN DUBUQUE is in with a win. A loss plus a Marion win creates a tie, which still looks good for the Bobcats. A loss and a Marion loss means they're out for an automatic berth.​

MASON CITY is in with a win plus a Marion loss. A win plus a Marion win means a tie, but that probably would go to Western Dubuque (I can never predict how much RPI can move from week to week, though).​

MARION can get in a tie for second with a win plus a Mason City win, but it looks impossible for RPI to get them in.​

WATERLOO EAST and DECORAH have been eliminated.​

[COLOR=%s]4A-3[/COLOR]

Iowa City Liberty v Clinton​

North Scott v Mount Pleasant​

Burlington v Fort Madison​

LIBERTY has won the district.​

NORTH SCOTT is second.​

BURLINGTON, FORT MADISON, CLINTON and MOUNT PLEASANT have been eliminated.​

[COLOR=%s]4A-4[/COLOR]

Xavier v Oskaloosa​

Pella v Cedar Rapids Washington​

Clear Creek Amana v Newton​

XAVIER has won the district.​

CR WASHINGTON gets second with a win; despite media reports, they haven't locked down second place yet. A loss plus a Newton win creates a tie, and Newton should get the RPI nod there. They'd be out with a loss and a Newton loss.​

NEWTON can only reach a tie with a win plus a Pella win, but that might be enough for second place.​

PELLA takes second with a win plus a Newton loss; a win and a Newton win creates a tie, but Pella's RPI is not good.​

CLEAR CREEK AMANA and OSKALOOSA have been eliminated.​

[COLOR=%s]4A-5[/COLOR]

Carlisle idle​

Bondurant-Farrar v Norwalk​

Indianola v Boone​

CARLISLE has won the district.​

The winner of BONDURANT-FARRAR vs NORWALK takes second place.​

(Indianola [with a win] and Bondurant-Farrar [with a loss] are in pretty good RPI position for at-large spots; probably not Norwalk, though.)​

BOONE, INDIANOLA, and (of course) PERRY have been eliminated.​

[COLOR=%s]4A-6[/COLOR]

Lewis Central v Winterset​

Glenwood v Dallas Center-Grimes​

DM Hoover v CB Thomas Jefferson​

LEWIS CENTRAL wins the district with a win. A loss and a Glenwood loss gets them second; a loss and a Glenwood win forces a three-way tie, but Lewis Central is in excellent RPI position to get them the title in that case.​

WINTERSET can win the district with a win plus a Glenwood loss. A win and a Glenwood win means a three-way tie, but Winterset probably gets left out in that situation. A loss and a Glenwood loss creates a three-way tie for second, but that's still not a good situation for Winterset.​

GLENWOOD is in with a win plus a Lewis Central win. A win plus a Winterset win means a tie, and likely the playoff spots go to Lewis Central and Glenwood. A loss and a Lewis Central win means a tie for second, and again that looks good for Glenwood. A loss and a Lewis Central loss means Glenwood is out for an automatic berth.​

DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES can force a tie for second with a win plus a Lewis Central win, but their RPI chances are very low.​

DES MOINES HOOVER and COUNCIL BLUFFS THOMAS JEFFERSON have been eliminated.​

 

[mtdew_fever]

It’s it often Decorah or Pella are not in the playoffs let alone both of them.

 

[ronsss]

It’s it often Decorah or Pella are not in the playoffs let alone both of them.....

decorah has lost 4 games, and still has to play waverly -sr, and allmost quarantee loss...decorah has had a couple very close loses, just unfortunate for the vikings this year..

pella lost 6 games this year,,,,in probably the toughest 4a district in iowa..some tough teams in this district this year...have watched bondurant far and norwalk...both tough teams....then xavier, indianola added to the mix...no thank u

 

[Bluebondurantjays]

Bondurant farrar is #6 in RPI BF win we most likely host indianola but if BF losed to norwalk we most like go to north scott.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I’m not typically one to predict the outcomes of games - there’s a very good reason why I don’t do sports gambling - but here’s one likely playoff field (using RPI to predict the winners of games in general - I admit it gets pretty iffy for guessing the at-larges):

District winners: Spencer, Waverly-Shell Rock, Liberty, CR Xavier, Carlisle, Lewis Central

Runners-up: Webster City, Western Dubuque, North Scott (host), CR Washington, Bondurant-Farrar (host), Glenwood

At-large: Indianola, Newton, Le Mars, Fort Madison

Potential pairings, West side:
Le Mars at Lewis Central, Indianola at Spencer
Glenwood at Carlisle, Webster City at Bondurant-Farrar

Potential pairings, East side:
Newton at Liberty, CR Washington at Waverly-Shell Rock
Fort Madison at CR Xavier, Western Dubuque at North Scott

(It’s possible three of the four top RPIs could come from the East, so maybe the state mixes it up so one of those teams isn’t out in the second round? Maybe Webster City at WSR paired with Spencer/Indianola and Newton at B/F paired with CR Wash at Liberty? Or am I overthinking? Probably overthinking, I’m good at that.)

 

[PNation]

Here are my projections for pairings

Xavier vs. Fort Madison
Boundurant Farrar vs Webster City

WSR vs CR Washington
North Scott vs Western Dubuque

Lewis Central vs LeMars
Spencer vs. Indianola

Liberty vs. Newton
Carlisle vs. Glenwood

I just realized this is exactly what you have. But I think if you look at Geography + RPI this is what we get. The only thing I don't like is that Western Dubuque and North Scott already played, but I don't think there is really a way around it.

 

[IACentralHawk73]

Bondurant-Farrar vs. Webster City has must-see written all over it.

Two of the best running backs in the state in Titus Cram and Jaxon Cherry going head-to-head.

 

[Break the Rock]

Here are my projections for pairings

Xavier vs. Fort Madison
Boundurant Farrar vs Webster City

WSR vs CR Washington
North Scott vs Western Dubuque

Lewis Central vs LeMars
Spencer vs. Indianola

Liberty vs. Newton
Carlisle vs. Glenwood

I just realized this is exactly what you have. But I think if you look at Geography + RPI this is what we get. The only thing I don't like is that Western Dubuque and North Scott already played, but I don't think there is really a way around it.

I'm going with this for a guess

Xavier-Glenwood
WD-Spencer

WSR-LeMars
Indianola-North Scott

Lewis Central-CR Wash
Ft. Madison-Bondurant

Liberty-Webster City
Newton-Carlisle

 

[ronsss]

allmost sure xavier will not host glenwood first round.......never has happen in the history of iowa that i know off..

 

[Break the Rock]

allmost sure xavier will not host glenwood first round.......never has happen in the history of iowa that i know off..

last year they seemed to follow true seeds more than worrying about geography.

xavier, WSR, LC and Liberty will get matched up with the likes of
Webster City, CR Wash, LeMars and Glenwood as the bottom seeds.
They aren't going to have them in a rematch with LC....or at least they shouldn't. So that makes Xavier as feasible distance wise as any of them.

This is under the premise they are the 16 seed. If they consider them a 12 seed simply based on the fact they placed 2nd in district then this would change things.

 

[ISUChip]

last year they seemed to follow true seeds more than worrying about geography.

Last year was a combination. Every road team was in the proper quadrant (9-12 or 13-16) based on the home team's seed, but it wasn't true to the ideal seed lines (i.e., 16 at 1, 15 at 2, etc.).

13 at 1
11 at 8
9 at 6
16 at 4
15 at 3
10 at 5
12 at 7
14 at 2

Had it been true/absolute seeds, 2 of the pods would have been disastrous:

Carlisle at North Scott
Spencer at Winterset
---
Norwalk at Bondurant-Farrar
Decorah at Indianola
---
Burlington at Waverly-Shell Rock
Clear Creek-Amana at Lewis Central
---
Fort Dodge at Webster City
CR Washington at CR Xavier

 

[3buzzmable]

I’m not typically one to predict the outcomes of games - there’s a very good reason why I don’t do sports gambling - but here’s one likely playoff field (using RPI to predict the winners of games in general - I admit it gets pretty iffy for guessing the at-larges):

District winners: Spencer, Waverly-Shell Rock, Liberty, CR Xavier, Carlisle, Lewis Central

Runners-up: Webster City, Western Dubuque, North Scott (host), CR Washington, Bondurant-Farrar (host), Glenwood

At-large: Indianola, Newton, Le Mars, Fort Madison

Potential pairings, West side:
Le Mars at Lewis Central, Indianola at Spencer
Glenwood at Carlisle, Webster City at Bondurant-Farrar

Potential pairings, East side:
Newton at Liberty, CR Washington at Waverly-Shell Rock
Fort Madison at CR Xavier, Western Dubuque at North Scott

(It’s possible three of the four top RPIs could come from the East, so maybe the state mixes it up so one of those teams isn’t out in the second round? Maybe Webster City at WSR paired with Spencer/Indianola and Newton at B/F paired with CR Wash at Liberty? Or am I overthinking? Probably overthinking, I’m good at that.)

This is how I have the West going as well.