This Week's RPI

[KidSilverhair]

Looks like all the scores are in and my spreadsheet has calculated all the calculations ... here's a look at how things stand after Week 6.

First, a guess at district champions. If things look kinda close, I went with the current RPI to pick. There's still a lot to be decided in the final three district games, so this is just a WAG. In order of RPI:

• D-1: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (.7258)
• D-9: Lewis Central (.6953)
• D-4: Xavier (.6811)
• D-6: Solon (.6754)
• D-5: North Scott (.6680)
• D-7: Pella (.6631)
• D-3: Waverly-Shell Rock (.6301)
• D-8: Bondurant-Farrar (.6073)
• D-2: Carroll (.4905)

Which means here are the seven top remaining RPIs:

• Clear Creek-Amana (.7037)
• Heelan (.6711)
• Spencer (.6672)
• Harlan (.6628)
• Western Dubuque (.6358)
• Oskaloosa (.6309)
• Decorah (.6245)

The next few:

• Storm Lake (.6219)
• Independence (.5977)
• Charles City (.5766)
• ADM (.5741)
• Mount Pleasant (.5684)
• Denison/Schleswig (.5549)

Again, some of these RPIs are still a bit inflated: Spencer and Storm Lake, for example, both still have to play SBL and Heelan, so somebody's winning percentage is going to take a hit. Similarly, Clear Creek-Amana and North Scott have yet to play, D-3 has a lot to figure out between Charles City/Decorah/Waverly-Shell Rock/West Delaware, and Xavier faces Western Dubuque this Friday. Things will change. Needless to say, though, whoever ends up coming out of D-2 is going to have a weaker RPI than (probably) several teams who are going to miss out on a playoff spot.

The overall RPIs are starting to separate a bit after six games. The gap between Storm Lake at .6219 and Independence at .5977 is fairly significant, as is the gap between Indee and Charles City (.5766). The 23 teams I have listed are the only ones above .5500, and there's just three others between .5500 and .5400.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I have no idea if the state is going to try to prevent rematches in the first round or not. Obviously you're going to have to have one first-round match between district winners; my guess would be lowest RPI would go on the road. Here's what might be a first-round arrangement if everything holds steady from Week 6 (SPOILER ALERT: It won't).

Heelan at Lewis Central
Carroll at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Spencer at Waverly-Shell Rock
Decorah at North Scott
Western Dubuque at Solon
Oskaloosa at Xavier
Clear Creek-Amana at Pella
Harlan at Bondurant-Farrar

This is obviously geographically wonky; if the state didn't mind (non-district) rematches then Harlan could go to SBL with Carroll at Bondurant-Farrar, Decorah could go to Xavier (meaning Oskaloosa goes to Solon), Western Dubuque could go to North Scott, you get the picture.

Again, this is all thought-experiment anyway, because it's not going to be those 16 teams that find themselves in the playoffs. Probably.

 

[leeps]

Looks like all the scores are in and my spreadsheet has calculated all the calculations ... here's a look at how things stand after Week 6.

First, a guess at district champions. If things look kinda close, I went with the current RPI to pick. There's still a lot to be decided in the final three district games, so this is just a WAG. In order of RPI:

• D-1: Sergeant Bluff-Luton (.7258)
• D-9: Lewis Central (.6953)
• D-4: Xavier (.6811)
• D-6: Solon (.6754)
• D-5: North Scott (.6680)
• D-7: Pella (.6631)
• D-3: Waverly-Shell Rock (.6301)
• D-8: Bondurant-Farrar (.6073)
• D-2: Carroll (.4905)

Which means here are the seven top remaining RPIs:

• Clear Creek-Amana (.7037)
• Heelan (.6711)
• Spencer (.6672)
• Harlan (.6628)
• Western Dubuque (.6358)
• Oskaloosa (.6309)
• Decorah (.6245)

The next few:

• Storm Lake (.6219)
• Independence (.5977)
• Charles City (.5766)
• ADM (.5741)
• Mount Pleasant (.5684)
• Denison/Schleswig (.5549)

Again, some of these RPIs are still a bit inflated: Spencer and Storm Lake, for example, both still have to play SBL and Heelan, so somebody's winning percentage is going to take a hit. Similarly, Clear Creek-Amana and North Scott have yet to play, D-3 has a lot to figure out between Charles City/Decorah/Waverly-Shell Rock/West Delaware, and Xavier faces Western Dubuque this Friday. Things will change. Needless to say, though, whoever ends up coming out of D-2 is going to have a weaker RPI than (probably) several teams who are going to miss out on a playoff spot.

The overall RPIs are starting to separate a bit after six games. The gap between Storm Lake at .6219 and Independence at .5977 is fairly significant, as is the gap between Indee and Charles City (.5766). The 23 teams I have listed are the only ones above .5500, and there's just three others between .5500 and .5400.

D3 champ gonna be Decorah though. They have to head to head over Waverly.

 

[oldman101]

Unless it's independence or a 3; 4; or 5 way tie. There's not that much separation between the top teams in district 3 and there's still three weeks to go.

 

[ronsss]

is the rpi calculated on all games..or only district games?

 

[oldman101]

is the rpi calculated on all games..or only district games?

all games

 

[leeps]

Unless it's independence or a 3; 4; or 5 way tie. There's not that much separation between the top teams in district 3 and there's still three weeks to go.

Agree not much separation. Kind of a down year for the district. Independence has a tough final 3 games. I think they lose 2 of the 3 if not all 3. They might get a W against Charles City.

 

[LincolntwspFarmer]

I find that the guys at Boone - who seem to claim that they want the best 16 teams in the playoffs. If (if) that were true, then they should not automatically give each district an automatic appearance in the playoffs - because, if the IHSAA thinks that this new RPI index is the way to go, some of the district winners are not in the top 10 and without going back to the RPI week 5 list, some might not even make top 16 currently. I'll admit, I don't have week 5 RPI in front of me nor do I have the 3A district standings report in front of me. However, there is a strong possibility that at the end - a higher RPI team that is not a "District" champion may not get in and might have a much higher RPI rating then some other district champ. Just my thoughts.

 

[ronsss]

i still liked the 32 game setup...more teams have a chance, and more football to watch at end of season

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Agree with ronsss.

 

[PNation]

I personally wish Iowa would go to a setup like Minnesota or Missouri has. More or less it is like we have for basketball and baseball, with the best teams getting a bye.

 

[LincolntwspFarmer]

OK - so the IHSAA says they want the top 16 teams in the playoffs. Then they say they are using a "new" method to determine the 16 best. Today they came out with their RPI ratings showing 1 through 54. The also say that "each district champ gets in - seriously? If the playoffs were held todayDistrict 2's best RPI rated team is Carroll rated at # 36 - "THIRTY SIX". If no one in District 2 improves their "RPI" rating, they should not be able to get an automatic bye into the playoffs - period.

The best rated team in Dist 1 = SBL ranked 1
in Dist 2 = Carroll ranked 36th
Dist 3 WSR ranked 13
Dist 4 Xavier rated 4
Dist 5 CCA rated 2
Dist 6 Solon ranked 5
Dist 7 Pella ranked 9
Dist 8 Bondurant Farrar ranked 16
Dist 9 CBLC ranked 3

I know there are 3 games to play yet and the RPI rankings will change a lot, however, if no one in Dist 2 can get any better than 36th - well the boys of Boone did it wrong.

 

[Tigers_11]

Still a better system than simply rewarding the top two teams in each district a playoff spot. As with any argument, there are two sides, but think about it this way..... a team runs the table, or at least wins its district outright, but does so by beating "inferior" opponents. Should that team be punished / left out of the playoffs just because a ratings system determined that they weren't actually good enough to be there in the first place? If you were on that team how would you feel if the state said that even though you went 9-0 or 8-1 you did it against a weak schedule, therefore no postseason for you.

As the old saying goes.....Anything can happen on any given day. Look at Williamsburg last year, barely got into the playoffs and then went all the way to the championship game. With the current system in place, the stronger districts have a chance to send up to three or possibly even four teams to the postseason. To me, that is more fair than just setting a limit and adding a couple wildcards.

I understand your frustration, but there has to be a line drawn in the sand somewhere. So Carroll is #36 in the RPI ratings.....the state makes the schedules, so not only should they determine who you play, but also potentially screw you over even though you did your job by winning the games they gave you?

 

[dtk913]

One of the problems with this system is that it is not a level playing field. When all of your games count and Team A plays up a class for 3 out of their 4 non-district games and Team B plays down a class for 3 of their 4 non district games and they all count the same, it is not a fair system. If Team A is in a District with another good team and loses to them in District play they are more than likely out of the playoffs because they didn't go 3-1 in non-district. Where as Team B pads their record with wins against bad competition and still has a chance to get an at-large without winning a district title. There are several 1A and 2A schools in this boat and the recent RPI rankings show this.

 

[PNation]

I don't think that the District 2 situation really has anything to do with the RPI, yes it is frustrating that such a weak district will get a bid, but that has always been the case, and in fact the old system they would of gotten two bids. Actually if you look at some of the weak districts like 2 is this year, over the last 2 years if would of been a district like this one that got one of the wild card sometimes. I know down in 2A two years ago Centerville got a bid in part to playing in a district that was so terrible. So I almost think the RPI does its job in this case by only giving one bid to district 2.

 

[BushWhite]

With new RPI system there will be first round rematches. Has to be district 5 and 2 are really weak.