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The "Still Too Early" Dome Predictions - 1A Edition

rc1963

Freshman
Aug 17, 2018
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So, the thread on SE Iowa 1A got me thinking more who'd making it to the dome.

So, I used BC Moore for what he's good at, crunching the stats

I pulled the top 16 - Say what you want about his rankings, I'm betting the top 4 will come out of his top 16

Then I pulled out the 8 with the best strength of schedule. If you're going to succeed against the best in your class, you better have played somebody. Interestingly, making a down selection based on SOS, cuts out Underwood (at 47th) and Beckman (at 45th) It leaves you with teams ranked 1st (Western Christian) through 14th (MFL) All pretty strong schedules. SK at 15th and AC/GC 17th miss the cut, but make you wonder about statistical significance. Western Christian, despite their scheduleThen it's a question of which is more important, strength of Offense, of strength of Defense. So, I averaged those, maybe balance wins championships, is an indicator of athleticism (especially in small school, high school, it says something about the quality of your athletes on both sides of the ball.) Van Meter easily comes to the top with a 3 (4th Offense, 2nd defense) - The next 3 are, DNH (10.5), PC (13) and MFL (14). (Regina comes in next with a 14.5, Columbus is within statistical consideration with a 16, West Sioux with a 16.5)

So, obviously there are some issues with quarterfinal matchups and the whole East/West Selection. So, I'm not predicting those "top 4" It gives us too many east teams and we need another west. I'm not sure I'm any closer to making actual predictions, but it does put some things into perspective about "what about x-team" who's maybe played nobody and done only marginally against their opponents.....

The most interesting question it makes for me, is,"Will Underwood defy the stats?" They don't have to dominate the state, just be good enough to be one of the last 2 from the west. There's also the statistical problem that the West never looks as good in those kinds of statistical analyses, yet they always bring it strong at the Dome.

So, with all of that milling around in the back of my head, I'm going to ignore some of it and actually make my predictions - Van Meter and Underwood from the west (I think Underwood's defensive production of only allowing 9.4/game is enough to give them that 2nd in the west spot) and Regina and W'loo Columbus in the East. I was going to go with DNH, I just think they don't quite have it all together and they'll drop one, maybe before the quarterfinals.
 
The problem with the strength of schedule is it doesn't take into account classes. Beckman beat all 3 2A schools handily and two of them were ranked at the time. I would assume a 3-2 2A school will be stronger than a 4-1 A team. Based on your predictions the beckman vs Columbus game Friday will tell a lot.
 
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The problem with the strength of schedule is it doesn't take into account classes. Beckman beat all 3 2A schools handily and two of them were ranked at the time. I would assume a 3-2 2A school will be stronger than a 4-1 A team. Based on your predictions the beckman vs Columbus game Friday will tell a lot.
Both teams understand what's at stake. Lose this one and the road to the dome becomes that much harder. I wonder if their paths could cross again before then or if they'll split things up geographically and make one of them play a SE contender?
 
I think the best 2 teams are from the west. VM and Underwood are 1 and 2 hands down. Not sure what to think of West Sioux at this point. Only other team worth mentioning in the west is ACGC. Other than that it is a stronger east side. However the cream of the crop is from the west side.
 
I think the best 2 teams are from the west. VM and Underwood are 1 and 2 hands down. Not sure what to think of West Sioux at this point. Only other team worth mentioning in the west is ACGC. Other than that it is a stronger east side. However the cream of the crop is from the west side.
You going to call Van Meter from the west?
They are basically a Des Moines suburb.
 
They are central Iowa.
Well, when it comes to semi-finals, they need two from the east and two from the west. They've pretty well almost always done that I think. Van Meter being "central" does give the state some latitude on where they consider them from. They called them East last year....

or maybe the east/ west perception is flawed, it just seems that way
 
Well, when it comes to semi-finals, they need two from the east and two from the west. They've pretty well almost always done that I think. Van Meter being "central" does give the state some latitude on where they consider them from. They called them East last year....

or maybe the east/ west perception is flawed, it just seems that way

Well, exactly. When you are a central team, they can move you to whatever side they need to. In this case, I agree they consider them a west side team, otherwise the west is too weak without them.
 
Wow, just checked out the competition that Underwood has faced so far:

1A MVAOCOU 0-5
1A E. Sac Co 0-5
A St. Albert 0-5
2A Clarinda 1-4
A Tri-Center 2-3

They have faced 5 teams with 3 combined wins. 2 of the 5 games coming against teams from a lower class.
 
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I was not figuring central as a direction. We talk east and west. They fall into west. When you get to the state quarterfinals direction does not matter, rankings do. A couple years ago West Lyon had to travel to Dike. first round or 2 has to do with location. After that it is seeding.
 
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I was not figuring central as a direction. We talk east and west. They fall into west. When you get to the state quarterfinals direction does not matter, rankings do. A couple years ago West Lyon had to travel to Dike. first round or 2 has to do with location. After that it is seeding.
First round 2019 West Lyon traveled to Osage (230 miles).
Second round 2019 West Lyon traveled to Dike New Hartford (260 miles).
 
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