Let’s take a look. Some oddities - all three of the D-1 teams that tied for the title get a bye (with 5-2 records), yet North Scott (4-1, also tied for their title undefeated in-district) does not? Neither does 6-1 Ballard or 7-1 West Delaware or 5-1 Lewis Central? Waterloo East gets pounded 62-6 by West Delaware in Manchester, so the state tells them “yeah, you get to go to Manchester again. Good luck.”
POD 1: SBL (5-2) gets a bye. Denison-Schleswig (1-5) at Carroll (3-4) in the first round. Pretty favorable pod for SBL. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: SBL.
POD 2: Spencer (5-2) gets a bye. Heelan (1-6) at Humboldt (4-3) in the first round. Humboldt is decent - only lost to Ballard by 3 and Webster City by 7. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Spencer.
POD 3: BHRV (5-2) gets a bye. LeMars (1-5) at Storm Lake (2-5) in the first round. Storm Lake beat LeMars 27-6 a week ago, and BHRV already beat them both. A great pod for BHRV. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: BHRV.
POD 4: Webster City (7-0) gets a bye. Mason City (2-3) at Gilbert (4-2) in the first round. Gilbert’s not a bad team, but Webster City crushed them by 41 points a week ago. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Webster City.
POD 5: Decorah (6-1) gets a bye. Charles City (0-5) at Dubuque Wahlert (4-2) in the first round. Wahlert had a shot at the D-4 title, but were blown out by both Assumption and West Delaware (a team Decorah beat). LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Decorah.
POD 6: No byes here. Waterloo East (1-6) at West Delaware (7-1) in one first round game, a matchup West Delaware already won 62-6 last night; Waverly-Shell Rock (4-3) at Western Dubuque (4-3) in the other. WSR gave Decorah their only loss, so they can be dangerous, and Western Dubuque is the defending state champion - but everybody in this pod has already lost convincingly by 35 points or more to West Delaware. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: West Delaware.
POD 7: Xavier (7-0) gets a bye. Marion (2-4) at Clear Creek-Amana (4-3) in the first round. Injuries have hurt Marion, who hasn’t won since September 18: Xavier beat CCA 30-7 earlier in the season, LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Xavier.
POD 8: Davenport Assumption (7-0) gets a bye. Clinton (0-6) at Central DeWitt (4-3) in the first round. CDW already beat Clinton 35-0, while Assumption has beaten both teams convincingly. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Assumption.
POD 9: No byes. Burlington (1-5, with just a 1-point win over Fairfield) at North Scott (4-1, only loss to undefeated 4A Pleasant Valley) in one first-round game; Benton (3-4) at Mount Pleasant (3-3, including a win over CCA in August) in the other. While North Scott doesn’t get a bye, they do get a very favorable pod. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: North Scott.
POD 10: Washington (7-0) gets a bye. Fairfield (1-6) at Keokuk (3-3) in the other. Washington has already beaten both teams by 40+. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Washington.
POD 11: Newton (0-7) at Grinnell (5-2) in one first-round game; Knoxville (1-6) at Fort Madison (6-1) in the other. Grinnell already romped over Newton 57-13 - a potential Grinnell vs Fort Madison second-round game could be a good one. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: The best team Fort Madison has beaten is probably Keokuk, so how good are they? Grinnell hung with Harlan to start the season and rolled everybody else but Xavier. I’ll go with Grinnell.
POD 12: Dallas Center-Grimes (6-0) gets a bye. Oskaloosa (2-5) at Carlisle (4-3) in the first round. Carlisle does have a nice win over Nevada; while DCG beat Pella in August, they’ve barely gotten by ADM and Winterset the last two weeks. A DCG/Carlisle second-round game could be pretty good. Still ... LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Dallas Center-Grimes.
POD 13: Pella (5-2) gets a bye. North Polk (1-6) at Winterset (5-2) in the first round. Winterset lost a close game to DCG this week, but their best win is over ADM. A pretty good pod for Pella. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Pella.
POD 14: No bye here, plus what has to be a typo. While the state says Ballard at Boone, it has to be Boone (0-7) at Ballard (6-1) in one game, and Perry (0-7) at Nevada (5-2) in the other. Not much drama expected in the first round - in the second you’d likely see Ballard at Nevada (last alphabetical). Ballard’s only loss was to undefeated Webster City by a point. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Ballard.
POD 15: Harlan (7-0) gets a bye. ADM (3-4) at Bondurant-Farrar (4-3) in what could be a good first round game. B-F‘s best win is over Carlisle, but they‘ve lost to Carroll as well as Pella and Nevada. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Harlan.
POD 16: Two more first-round games. Creston (1-6) at Lewis Central (5-1) and Norwalk (1-5) at Glenwood (5-2), setting up a likely Glenwood at Lewis Central second-round game. Lewis Central beat Glenwood by 4 touchdowns in September. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Lewis Central.
A very likely final sixteen, with possible four-team brackets could be:
-BHRV at SBL
-Lewis Central at Harlan
-Spencer at Webster City
-Ballard at DCG
-West Delaware at Decorah
-Assumption at North Scott (?)
-Grinnell at Xavier
-Pella at Washington
Ya know, or ... not. I dunno.
POD 1: SBL (5-2) gets a bye. Denison-Schleswig (1-5) at Carroll (3-4) in the first round. Pretty favorable pod for SBL. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: SBL.
POD 2: Spencer (5-2) gets a bye. Heelan (1-6) at Humboldt (4-3) in the first round. Humboldt is decent - only lost to Ballard by 3 and Webster City by 7. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Spencer.
POD 3: BHRV (5-2) gets a bye. LeMars (1-5) at Storm Lake (2-5) in the first round. Storm Lake beat LeMars 27-6 a week ago, and BHRV already beat them both. A great pod for BHRV. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: BHRV.
POD 4: Webster City (7-0) gets a bye. Mason City (2-3) at Gilbert (4-2) in the first round. Gilbert’s not a bad team, but Webster City crushed them by 41 points a week ago. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Webster City.
POD 5: Decorah (6-1) gets a bye. Charles City (0-5) at Dubuque Wahlert (4-2) in the first round. Wahlert had a shot at the D-4 title, but were blown out by both Assumption and West Delaware (a team Decorah beat). LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Decorah.
POD 6: No byes here. Waterloo East (1-6) at West Delaware (7-1) in one first round game, a matchup West Delaware already won 62-6 last night; Waverly-Shell Rock (4-3) at Western Dubuque (4-3) in the other. WSR gave Decorah their only loss, so they can be dangerous, and Western Dubuque is the defending state champion - but everybody in this pod has already lost convincingly by 35 points or more to West Delaware. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: West Delaware.
POD 7: Xavier (7-0) gets a bye. Marion (2-4) at Clear Creek-Amana (4-3) in the first round. Injuries have hurt Marion, who hasn’t won since September 18: Xavier beat CCA 30-7 earlier in the season, LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Xavier.
POD 8: Davenport Assumption (7-0) gets a bye. Clinton (0-6) at Central DeWitt (4-3) in the first round. CDW already beat Clinton 35-0, while Assumption has beaten both teams convincingly. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Assumption.
POD 9: No byes. Burlington (1-5, with just a 1-point win over Fairfield) at North Scott (4-1, only loss to undefeated 4A Pleasant Valley) in one first-round game; Benton (3-4) at Mount Pleasant (3-3, including a win over CCA in August) in the other. While North Scott doesn’t get a bye, they do get a very favorable pod. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: North Scott.
POD 10: Washington (7-0) gets a bye. Fairfield (1-6) at Keokuk (3-3) in the other. Washington has already beaten both teams by 40+. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Washington.
POD 11: Newton (0-7) at Grinnell (5-2) in one first-round game; Knoxville (1-6) at Fort Madison (6-1) in the other. Grinnell already romped over Newton 57-13 - a potential Grinnell vs Fort Madison second-round game could be a good one. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: The best team Fort Madison has beaten is probably Keokuk, so how good are they? Grinnell hung with Harlan to start the season and rolled everybody else but Xavier. I’ll go with Grinnell.
POD 12: Dallas Center-Grimes (6-0) gets a bye. Oskaloosa (2-5) at Carlisle (4-3) in the first round. Carlisle does have a nice win over Nevada; while DCG beat Pella in August, they’ve barely gotten by ADM and Winterset the last two weeks. A DCG/Carlisle second-round game could be pretty good. Still ... LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Dallas Center-Grimes.
POD 13: Pella (5-2) gets a bye. North Polk (1-6) at Winterset (5-2) in the first round. Winterset lost a close game to DCG this week, but their best win is over ADM. A pretty good pod for Pella. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Pella.
POD 14: No bye here, plus what has to be a typo. While the state says Ballard at Boone, it has to be Boone (0-7) at Ballard (6-1) in one game, and Perry (0-7) at Nevada (5-2) in the other. Not much drama expected in the first round - in the second you’d likely see Ballard at Nevada (last alphabetical). Ballard’s only loss was to undefeated Webster City by a point. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Ballard.
POD 15: Harlan (7-0) gets a bye. ADM (3-4) at Bondurant-Farrar (4-3) in what could be a good first round game. B-F‘s best win is over Carlisle, but they‘ve lost to Carroll as well as Pella and Nevada. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Harlan.
POD 16: Two more first-round games. Creston (1-6) at Lewis Central (5-1) and Norwalk (1-5) at Glenwood (5-2), setting up a likely Glenwood at Lewis Central second-round game. Lewis Central beat Glenwood by 4 touchdowns in September. LIKELY POD SURVIVOR: Lewis Central.
A very likely final sixteen, with possible four-team brackets could be:
-BHRV at SBL
-Lewis Central at Harlan
-Spencer at Webster City
-Ballard at DCG
-West Delaware at Decorah
-Assumption at North Scott (?)
-Grinnell at Xavier
-Pella at Washington
Ya know, or ... not. I dunno.
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