Let's hear about some first-round match-ups and predictions from posters- from all classes.
I'll take the Waverly- Shell Rock against Dubuque Wahlert 3A game on Tuesday evening, March 10, since I have seen both teams play in person. This is going to be an amazing game, for all kinds of reasons. First of all, they have played five common opponents this season-- MVC teams- CR Xavier, West Waterloo, Cedar Falls and East Waterloo. Waverly has beaten all four rather handily, including whipping Xavier by 12 (albeit very early before Xavier got their act together). Waverly held Cedar Falls to one basket in the second half. Wahlert is 2-2 against these four teams, with their two close losses being on the road. They both also played Crestwood. Waverly beat Crestwood twice, by the same scoring margin Wahlert did in the substate final, but once held Crestwood to 29 points. I think you need eight things to make a run for a championship-- 1) great talent, 2) good coaching, 3) stellar defense, 4) offensive firepower, 5) low turnovers, 6) hit free throws, 7) great guard(s), 8) rebounding. So how do these two match up in these areas? As far as 1) talent- they both have plenty. D1 center Austin Pfyfe at 6-9 has plenty of maturity for a soph and makes few mistakes. Jake Velky is possibly the best guard in 3A and could go for 30 against a defense like Wahlert plays (see later). Camry Moore is a great second guard and is a good defensive player. I like 6-10 Davon Beckert who can at times form a towering front court pair for the Go-Hawks. As much offensive talent as Waverly has, Wahlert has even more with Cordell Pemsl, a big 6-8 power forward who plays the post and will neutralize Phyfe. 6-6 wing guard Josh Carter was the captain of last year's 3A tournament team, and when he is on, he is amazing. 6-5 wing guard Nolan Timp is Wahlert's steadiest player and plays the entire court. He shoots 49% from the three arc. David Iwowari at 6-5 is learning how to play but can jump out of the gym and is Wahlert's leading shot blocker. Both teams are young, with Wahlert returning seven of their top ten rotation players, headed by Pemsl, next year. Waverly returns 13 varsity players next year, headed by Phyfe. Offensive talent- edge to Wahlert. 2) Coaching- amazingly, both coaches have won two state champoionships in the last decade. Even. 3) Defense- Waverly wins this area hands down. 4) Offensive firepower- edge to Wahlert. 5) turnovers? Wahlert's biggest problem- mostly self-induced. Most of their losses were for this reason. Edge to Waverly. 6) free throw shooting- neither team is terrific, but Waverly will get several more points than Wahlert from the free throw line. 7) Guard play. Waverly's guards outscore Wahlert's guards per game by about three to one. The Go-Hawks are a guard-driven team. Edge to Waverly. 8) Rebounding- Wahlert may have an edge. So-- if Waverly is better in so many statistical areas, why is this game even going to be close? Because Wahlert has the "Wow" factor. When they are good, they are really good. Problem is, they just haven't been good on any consistent basis. Quarterfinal score: Waverly 63, Wahlert 62. But who knows?
This post was edited on 3/6 9:34 PM by EastIowaHawk
I'll take the Waverly- Shell Rock against Dubuque Wahlert 3A game on Tuesday evening, March 10, since I have seen both teams play in person. This is going to be an amazing game, for all kinds of reasons. First of all, they have played five common opponents this season-- MVC teams- CR Xavier, West Waterloo, Cedar Falls and East Waterloo. Waverly has beaten all four rather handily, including whipping Xavier by 12 (albeit very early before Xavier got their act together). Waverly held Cedar Falls to one basket in the second half. Wahlert is 2-2 against these four teams, with their two close losses being on the road. They both also played Crestwood. Waverly beat Crestwood twice, by the same scoring margin Wahlert did in the substate final, but once held Crestwood to 29 points. I think you need eight things to make a run for a championship-- 1) great talent, 2) good coaching, 3) stellar defense, 4) offensive firepower, 5) low turnovers, 6) hit free throws, 7) great guard(s), 8) rebounding. So how do these two match up in these areas? As far as 1) talent- they both have plenty. D1 center Austin Pfyfe at 6-9 has plenty of maturity for a soph and makes few mistakes. Jake Velky is possibly the best guard in 3A and could go for 30 against a defense like Wahlert plays (see later). Camry Moore is a great second guard and is a good defensive player. I like 6-10 Davon Beckert who can at times form a towering front court pair for the Go-Hawks. As much offensive talent as Waverly has, Wahlert has even more with Cordell Pemsl, a big 6-8 power forward who plays the post and will neutralize Phyfe. 6-6 wing guard Josh Carter was the captain of last year's 3A tournament team, and when he is on, he is amazing. 6-5 wing guard Nolan Timp is Wahlert's steadiest player and plays the entire court. He shoots 49% from the three arc. David Iwowari at 6-5 is learning how to play but can jump out of the gym and is Wahlert's leading shot blocker. Both teams are young, with Wahlert returning seven of their top ten rotation players, headed by Pemsl, next year. Waverly returns 13 varsity players next year, headed by Phyfe. Offensive talent- edge to Wahlert. 2) Coaching- amazingly, both coaches have won two state champoionships in the last decade. Even. 3) Defense- Waverly wins this area hands down. 4) Offensive firepower- edge to Wahlert. 5) turnovers? Wahlert's biggest problem- mostly self-induced. Most of their losses were for this reason. Edge to Waverly. 6) free throw shooting- neither team is terrific, but Waverly will get several more points than Wahlert from the free throw line. 7) Guard play. Waverly's guards outscore Wahlert's guards per game by about three to one. The Go-Hawks are a guard-driven team. Edge to Waverly. 8) Rebounding- Wahlert may have an edge. So-- if Waverly is better in so many statistical areas, why is this game even going to be close? Because Wahlert has the "Wow" factor. When they are good, they are really good. Problem is, they just haven't been good on any consistent basis. Quarterfinal score: Waverly 63, Wahlert 62. But who knows?
This post was edited on 3/6 9:34 PM by EastIowaHawk
