RPI after three games

[jwichhart]

Here is the link to the RPI.

https://www.iahsaa.org/football/2018-rpi-update-week-3/

someone once said Pella Christian's district was the weakest but they have the top three spots plus Pella Christian at 5.

 

[Bluejay89]

It's early.

 

[atomic87]

I'm glad we're not outraged by this yet, but maybe they should have waited until after the first district games to release it.

Also, any reason they're already including the record of all 9 opponents in the formula? Seems like it should only include the records of the teams you've played so far. I don't know how much difference it would make, just seems like they're giving credit for a "hard" schedule even if you haven't played those teams yet.

 

[Bluejay89]

I'm glad we're not outraged by this yet, but maybe they should have waited until after the first district games to release it.

Also, any reason they're already including the record of all 9 opponents in the formula? Seems like it should only include the records of the teams you've played so far. I don't know how much difference it would make, just seems like they're giving credit for a "hard" schedule even if you haven't played those teams yet.

I wondered the same. My guess is to reduce volatility week-to-week. The longer the season goes, the less movement you will see because most games have already been included in the formula. None of this makes sense to me. It's really a bad move by the state.

 

[cowboydude]

this may get ugly by playoff time

 

[cowboydude]

the one thing I would say is that the state is actually "trying" to do something. they are making the effort to find a system that works. This ranking system may look a little different next year or the year after etc, but without attempting a change you would have nothing to go on, nothing to adjust. Football teams make halftime adjustments right?

 

[Sev393]

the one thing I would say is that the state is actually "trying" to do something. they are making the effort to find a system that works. This ranking system may look a little different next year or the year after etc, but without attempting a change you would have nothing to go on, nothing to adjust. Football teams make halftime adjustments right?

While I also like that they are trying something, I feel like there are going to be issues and certain schools and kids are going to get jobbed. And there will be no adjusting that on the fly . Why wouldnt they just keep it the way it was and "test " the RPI formula out over this 2 year cycle, and then if it looked good, move ahead with it? I'm hoping someone at IAHSAA at least ran the formula through the previous years results, but somehow I doubt it.

 

[footballer9999]

I think it's a ok system if you could actually schedule your own non district opponents. I think going up or down a class should be figured into the criteria. Your own record should carry a little more weight. There will be unhappy people no matter what the system is.

 

[rc1963]

While I also like that they are trying something, I feel like there are going to be issues and certain schools and kids are going to get jobbed. And there will be no adjusting that on the fly . Why wouldnt they just keep it the way it was and "test " the RPI formula out over this 2 year cycle, and then if it looked good, move ahead with it? I'm hoping someone at IAHSAA at least ran the formula through the previous years results, but somehow I doubt it.

So, you mean you wanted to keep the 8 districts, two qualifiers from each until the RPI shakes out?

I would agree that just running the numbers for the past few years would prove out the RPI. That seems really logical to have tried.

I guess if teams want into the playoffs, they'll actually have to win - novel approach.

 

[Sev393]

So, you mean you wanted to keep the 8 districts, two qualifiers from each until the RPI shakes out?

I would agree that just running the numbers for the past few years would prove out the RPI. That seems really logical to have tried.

I guess if teams want into the playoffs, they'll actually have to win - novel approach.

8 districts, top 2 get in. they could have kept the old points system for tie breaker for this cycle , while they test ran RPI.
I think bigger districts make it a little easier to figure out where the strength is. But if the RPI looked pretty solid then they could adjust to this new format. I just feel like they are changing 2-3 variables at same time and might find the formula for getting to final 16 teams is a little wonky again.

Actually I was a fan of top 4 making it in and having 32 team playoff. (pretty sure I'm in the minority there). But they just needed to have games start week 0. so then the playoffs could all be played out each friday and not condensed to every 4-5 days, which was ridiculously brutal for some teams.

 

[Pinehawk]

No benefit to schedule up a class anymore. In fact it's detrimental. So, the State has now encouraged worse games. May as well schedule down a class and beat a smaller school that will go on to have a good season. You get equal value with a better chance at a victory.

 

[rc1963]

No benefit to schedule up a class anymore. In fact it's detrimental. So, the State has now encouraged worse games. May as well schedule down a class and beat a smaller school that will go on to have a good season. You get equal value with a better chance at a victory.

That's been my thought all along, you actually get better RPI value and better chance at victory, but who down a class wants to play you?

I was thinking maybe give some kind of multiplier for playing up, so you could get a boost for beating a higher class team and a buffer from suffering as much in loosing a game you weren't really expecting to win. It almost seems like they want to encourage teams to play within their class, So, why not just have 6 districts of 9 teams, you play one non-district game, top 2 get a playoff plus 4 wc's. Divide the state East and West, then thirds; North Tier, Mid Tier, South Tier for 2 years, the switch and slice the halves North and South.

Yeah - no perfect system.

 

[roosterk]

• 
  There hasn't been a benefit (other than making your self better) or fallback of playing because ND games didn't count. Now they are as important as D games if you are thinking you might need a WC to get into the playoffs.

• 
  The better teams might still play up a class, but they won't be putting power house teams on their list. And I doubt the team above will have them on their list and I think they both have to to be put together. Next time I doubt the coaches get to submit a list just like 8-player and all games will be in class.

 

[Sev393]

If they keep RPI as metric for qualifying for playoff spot, then I think it would be better to have teams be limited to playing within their class anyway. There would likely be a little more travel involved but getting a few “inter-sectional” games within each class would help make RPI more relevant/ accurate . 4A schools have started doing that some.

 

[ISUChip]

I think it would be better to have teams be limited to playing within their class anyway. There would likely be a little more travel involved

West Lyon only has 1 non-district 1A school within 100 miles (Cherokee). The next 4 closest are between 100 and 150 miles away.

Compare that to their actual schedule of: CLGLR (21 miles), BHRV (24), Sioux Center (28) and MOC-FV (39).

 

[roosterk]

Only have to drive every other year. IMO that's worth similar competition & better games to watch and kids to compete in.

 

[ISUChip]

Only have to drive every other year. IMO that's worth similar competition & better games to watch and kids to compete in.

"Similar-sized school" or "similar competition"? Because those aren't the same thing.

SC North and IC West are similarly-sized, but no one would call that similar competition.
Same thing for Wilton and Sibley-Ocheyedan. And so on.

This class-limited plan wouldn't allow Waterloo West and Waterloo East to play each other. Heelan and SB-L wouldn't be allowed to play the Sioux City schools. I'm willing to bet there are dozens of other longtime rivalries that would get axed because this 1A school couldn't play that 2A school. Or that 1A school could no longer play that A school

 

[usfhawk]

To me, if they are going to keep the RPI, it should be district champs automatic qualifier and the district team with the highest RPI among the remaining teams in the district gets the second playoff spot. Two qualifiers from each district. Competition is not even across the state and to me this would keep qualifier spot fair.

The way it is now there will be some very good teams left out and some average teams getting in.

 

[Sev393]

West Lyon only has 1 non-district 1A school within 100 miles (Cherokee). The next 4 closest are between 100 and 150 miles away.

Compare that to their actual schedule of: CLGLR (21 miles), BHRV (24), Sioux Center (28) and MOC-FV (39).

Welp, as rc1963 stated, there isnt going to be a perfect system. There probably would be some years or 2 year cycles where travel really bites. I could accept maybe 1 game exception in ND as far as team playing out of class. (allows for rivalry game or perhaps out of state game ). But the math is going to work better for RPI if there are more Games within each class.

 

[Iabeastmode]

Couldn’t we start the season with 2 games that don’t count, then 2 “predistrict” games within the class that do count before getting into district play? Would have 7 total games counting toward RPI.

 

[rc1963]

To me, if they are going to keep the RPI, it should be district champs automatic qualifier and the district team with the highest RPI among the remaining teams in the district gets the second playoff spot. Two qualifiers from each district. Competition is not even across the state and to me this would keep qualifier spot fair.

The way it is now there will be some very good teams left out and some average teams getting in.

playing devil's advocate, this was would also create the situation where you have 3 really good teams in a district, two of them make playoffs than the third gets left out so some mediocre team in a weaker district gets in and gets pummeled in the first round....

 

[rc1963]

Couldn’t we start the season with 2 games that don’t count, then 2 “predistrict” games within the class that do count before getting into district play? Would have 7 total games counting toward RPI.

that idea shows some real promise - allows you to play those games that stretch your capabilities, or rivalries that wouldn't make sense to play if RPI was on the line.

Where's the suggestion box for IAHSSA?

 

[usfhawk]

playing devil's advocate, this was would also create the situation where you have 3 really good teams in a district, two of them make playoffs than the third gets left out so some mediocre team in a weaker district gets in and gets pummeled in the first round....

Could be, not sure there is a perfect solution. I think using BCMoore would be better than this RPI garbage.

 

[Iabeastmode]

My question for the IAHSAA is...when has a team ever been left out of the playoffs that has had a legit chance to be a semifinal team? Never as far as I’m concerned. This year there is a legit chance that this will happen. What if PC take a loss this week to a good 2A PCM team, then stumbles in a district game and Regina loses to a very good DNH team at the end of the year? Could knock out 2 legit teams who could be semi-final teams. This system is not good compared to what they’ve done in the past.

 

[ISUfan00]

My question for the IAHSAA is...when has a team ever been left out of the playoffs that has had a legit chance to be a semifinal team? Never as far as I’m concerned. This year there is a legit chance that this will happen. What if PC take a loss this week to a good 2A PCM team, then stumbles in a district game and Regina loses to a very good DNH team at the end of the year? Could knock out 2 legit teams who could be semi-final teams. This system is not good compared to what they’ve done in the past.

West Branch 2006..1 loss to Regina by 7. Regina went on to win state title that year. That WB team was very good.

 

[nwmsbearcat]

West Branch 2006..1 loss to Regina by 7. Regina went on to win state title that year. That WB team was very good.

Sorry, but try again...here are the state champions from 2005 and 2006.
2006
4A: Xavier
3A: Humboldt
2A: Central Lyon-George-Little Rock
1A: St. Albert
A: IKM
8-player: Northeast Hamilton

2005
4A: Valley, West Des Moines
3A: Harlan
2A: Sigourney-Keota
1A: Regina
A: North Mahaska
8-player: Glidden-Ralston

And in 2005, West Branch lost to Regina in the Quarterfinals so they were in the playoffs.

 

[rc1963]

Could be, not sure there is a perfect solution. I think using BCMoore would be better than this RPI garbage.

I've been watching BC Moore rankings for the past 6-8 years (I guess) and while I appreciate the statistical analysis, I don't think they've ever very accurately reflected the quality (i.e. ability to win) of the teams.

It will be interesting to compare BC Moore to RPI as we go through the season and see which seems to more accurately reflect the quality of wins.

West Branch 2006..1 loss to Regina by 7. Regina went on to win state title that year. That WB team was very good.

Ok, so the record has been corrected regarding Regina who lost to DNH in the playoffs that year, BUT your point still stands WB's only loss was to Regina in District play. WB's composite score for the season was 323-80 (or an average of 36-9/game) Can someone help with re-creating history? It looks like all 3 WB, Regina and Montezuma went 6-1 in district play. So, did Montezuma get into the playoffs as Dist Champ and Regina on points diff? (13.9 Regina vs 13.6 WB on the old 17 point diff calc) If so, How did Montezuma get the district championship? Montezuma ended up the state runnerup.

So, given the records, they fact that the three exchanged wins (Regina beat WB, WB beat Mont, Mont beat Regina) and the point diff situation above, shouldn't it have been WB and Regina in the playoffs? Did the stupid alphabet tie-breaker come into play?

 

[ISUfan00]

If memory serves me right it was the alphabet rule.