Regina VS Xavier...could the real winner be public schools?
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Dumb idea most schools seem to go thru cycles. Why can't you face it some public schools just stink. It not any bodies fault it just happens. And I have never seen this so called recruiting budget in the small private school I went to. Are the one my grandkids go to. In our school everybody plats in multiple sports. Not because they are better athletes it is because they have to. And there is no magic travel budget either. And if public schools can't beat private schools maybe they need to strive to improve.
I am not denying that they have been dominant, watched a lot of blow out football games the past 5 years. Have also watched several teams that pushed them hard. I also remember years where a victory was rare and not having the game end by the 50 point rule was a good night. These things go in cycles and currently they have caught lightening in a bottle. The same built in advantages, the same location and very different results. I have also watched several public schools in the area and across the state play the open enrollment game far better than any private school. The facilities race is being won by the public schools and they have that whole "free" thing going for them. So as they say the sun don't shine on the same dogs rump every day so these things probably will even out again and turn the other way. Without legislation or new rules.
Some facts about Iowa championship football as it relates to public and private school participation and success since the 2000 season. All stats* are for the 2000-2013 seasons unless otherwise noted.
1) Since 2000, there have been 70, 11-player football championships awarded in Iowa.
2) Of the 140 teams participating in those championships, 110 have been public schools, 30 private.
3) Public schools have won 52 championships; private schools 18.
- 45 out of 70 championships were public v. public games
- 20 out of 70 championships were private v. public games (private went 13-7)
- 5 out of 70 championships were private v. private games
4) Private school data is significantly impacted by the results of the past 3 seasons. From 2011 to 2013 private schools:
- Won 33% of their 18 championships**
- Earned 40% of their 30 championship game appearances**
5) And particularly impacted by last year's results, where in 2013 they:
-Won 22% of their 18 championships**
-Earned 20% of their championship game appearances**
6) Four private school programs have won 15 of the 18 private school championships**: Regina (5), Dowling (4) and St. Albert's(4) and Heelan(2) (Xavier, Columbus and Kuemper were the other winners)
7) Similarly, the top four public programs in terms of championship wins** - Valley (5), Solon (4), Harlan (4), Southern Cal (3), (Bettendorf, Sigourney-Keota, West Lyon and Wapsie Valley are the other multiple championship winners at 2 wins each. 24 other public schools won a championship during the time period**)
*Source IAHSAA Record Book
**For the 2000-2013 seasons
My conclusions:
On facts 1-3:
While private schools have enjoyed success over the past 14 seasons, they have not been overtly dominate.
On 4-5:
Private schools are on a bit of a run over the past 3 seasons,but that's largely been driven by the recent success at Regina (3 championships) and last year's outlier when private schools won four championships and had six teams participating in the 5 finals. Three years and one or two successful programs do not make a long term or wide spread trend.
On 6-7:
In terms of championships won, public program 'dominance' at Valley, Harlan and Solon is exactly on par with private programs at Dowling, Regina and St. Albert's. This suggests there is little or no evidence of an 'unfair' advantage due to public/private status in winning championships.
Further, if you did move forward with manipulating private school participation be defining two sets of rules, as some have suggested, how do you justify punishing Dowling, Regina, St. Albert's for their successes while ignoring Valley, Harlan and Solon for accomplishing exactly the same thing?
edited to correct formatting
This post was edited on 10/21 12:14 PM by gg2224
1) Since 2000, there have been 70, 11-player football championships awarded in Iowa.
2) Of the 140 teams participating in those championships, 110 have been public schools, 30 private.
3) Public schools have won 52 championships; private schools 18.
- 45 out of 70 championships were public v. public games
- 20 out of 70 championships were private v. public games (private went 13-7)
- 5 out of 70 championships were private v. private games
4) Private school data is significantly impacted by the results of the past 3 seasons. From 2011 to 2013 private schools:
- Won 33% of their 18 championships**
- Earned 40% of their 30 championship game appearances**
5) And particularly impacted by last year's results, where in 2013 they:
-Won 22% of their 18 championships**
-Earned 20% of their championship game appearances**
6) Four private school programs have won 15 of the 18 private school championships**: Regina (5), Dowling (4) and St. Albert's(4) and Heelan(2) (Xavier, Columbus and Kuemper were the other winners)
7) Similarly, the top four public programs in terms of championship wins** - Valley (5), Solon (4), Harlan (4), Southern Cal (3), (Bettendorf, Sigourney-Keota, West Lyon and Wapsie Valley are the other multiple championship winners at 2 wins each. 24 other public schools won a championship during the time period**)
*Source IAHSAA Record Book
**For the 2000-2013 seasons
My conclusions:
On facts 1-3:
While private schools have enjoyed success over the past 14 seasons, they have not been overtly dominate.
On 4-5:
Private schools are on a bit of a run over the past 3 seasons,but that's largely been driven by the recent success at Regina (3 championships) and last year's outlier when private schools won four championships and had six teams participating in the 5 finals. Three years and one or two successful programs do not make a long term or wide spread trend.
On 6-7:
In terms of championships won, public program 'dominance' at Valley, Harlan and Solon is exactly on par with private programs at Dowling, Regina and St. Albert's. This suggests there is little or no evidence of an 'unfair' advantage due to public/private status in winning championships.
Further, if you did move forward with manipulating private school participation be defining two sets of rules, as some have suggested, how do you justify punishing Dowling, Regina, St. Albert's for their successes while ignoring Valley, Harlan and Solon for accomplishing exactly the same thing?
edited to correct formatting
This post was edited on 10/21 12:14 PM by gg2224
Just a little nit-pick. Private schools won 4 of 5 11-man titles; the sixth title game is 8-man, which you said you weren't looking at, and Don Bosco won that game last year.
I fully agree with you, though. I've crunched all these numbers and posted them here before. Falls on deaf ears every time.
Apologies for being unclear.
In my 2013 comment, I was refering to the 6 private school participants in the 5, 11-player championship games. Private schools came away with 4 championships in those 5 games. I did not consider 8-man in my analysis because I didn't want to introduce team size as a variable.
2013 11-player results:
A: West Lyon over BGM (0 private schools)
1A: Regina over St.Eds (2)
2A: Kuemper over Waukon (1)
3A: Heelan over Washington (1)
4A: Dowling over Xavier (2)
I agree that this has been hashed and rehashed before. Ever so often I like to challenge the perceptions, inuendo and opinions that are offered here as fact with a reasonable dose of reality.
I can accept that certain programs have inherent advantages over others, but the evidence does not support that those advantages are due to their public/private status.
In my 2013 comment, I was refering to the 6 private school participants in the 5, 11-player championship games. Private schools came away with 4 championships in those 5 games. I did not consider 8-man in my analysis because I didn't want to introduce team size as a variable.
2013 11-player results:
A: West Lyon over BGM (0 private schools)
1A: Regina over St.Eds (2)
2A: Kuemper over Waukon (1)
3A: Heelan over Washington (1)
4A: Dowling over Xavier (2)
I agree that this has been hashed and rehashed before. Ever so often I like to challenge the perceptions, inuendo and opinions that are offered here as fact with a reasonable dose of reality.
I can accept that certain programs have inherent advantages over others, but the evidence does not support that those advantages are due to their public/private status.
Valley is tough to use as a basis for any sports success comparisons, especially with Ankeny splitting... they are a completely different entity.
Each grade has enough students in its own right to qualify as a 4A school.
Valley is larger than SC East and SC North combined.
North Scott (6-2), Fort Dodge (6-2) and Lewis Central (7-1) combined only top Valley's enrollment by 140 students... I chose those 3 because they are having success this year, if you go by the bottom 3 4A enrollment schools the margin shrinks to 17 students and the data still includes North Scott and Lewis Central.
Obviously enrollment is not a guarantee of success, but I think it goes a long way in sustaining it, especially in a suburban setting.
Each grade has enough students in its own right to qualify as a 4A school.
Valley is larger than SC East and SC North combined.
North Scott (6-2), Fort Dodge (6-2) and Lewis Central (7-1) combined only top Valley's enrollment by 140 students... I chose those 3 because they are having success this year, if you go by the bottom 3 4A enrollment schools the margin shrinks to 17 students and the data still includes North Scott and Lewis Central.
Obviously enrollment is not a guarantee of success, but I think it goes a long way in sustaining it, especially in a suburban setting.
The thing not usually mentioned with the championship game performances were the % of teams playing that were either public or private.
A comparison would be to say that a class of 100 PE students participated in an activity.
Well, only 14 of the boys who played in the championship ping pong match were blonde, while the other 36 were dark haired. On first glance, you could say only 26% of the title game players were blonde, so stop arguing that blondes have an advantage.
But when you figure that the class of 100 only had 20 blondes and 80 dark haired students, the numbers shift a bit.
70% of all blonde students made it to the title game.
45% of all dark haired students made it to the title game.
Would you say blonde students had an advantage then? 70 to 45? That's quite a discrepancy.
I'm not going to run the numbers, but what % of 3A and 4A private schools made the finals vs. the percent of public schools? If there was no advantage, the % of schools should be roughly the same. In reality, the numbers aren't close. Especially lately.
A comparison would be to say that a class of 100 PE students participated in an activity.
Well, only 14 of the boys who played in the championship ping pong match were blonde, while the other 36 were dark haired. On first glance, you could say only 26% of the title game players were blonde, so stop arguing that blondes have an advantage.
But when you figure that the class of 100 only had 20 blondes and 80 dark haired students, the numbers shift a bit.
70% of all blonde students made it to the title game.
45% of all dark haired students made it to the title game.
Would you say blonde students had an advantage then? 70 to 45? That's quite a discrepancy.
I'm not going to run the numbers, but what % of 3A and 4A private schools made the finals vs. the percent of public schools? If there was no advantage, the % of schools should be roughly the same. In reality, the numbers aren't close. Especially lately.
Solon did the same thing during their run - hammered 2A opponents and probably would have had the same success in 3A those same years.
Harlan did much the same when they were dominant in 3A. Sigourney-Keota as well when they had the cycle come through running the Wing T.
CLGLR was dominant in 2A for a stint, heck they met Solon 3 consecutive times in the championship.
This is why I wouldn't be opposed that if you have consecutive Championship appearances that you move up a class and the two bottom feeders of the upper class move down for 2 years. Solon was moved up due to enrollment and wasn't impacted that much (no the titles aren't rolling in but they are still quite competitive in most all activities).
Seems reasonable, but would probably be like the NCAA assigning sanctions against a college fball program, only to have the head coach move on with no repercussions. The program pays the price, but the "guilty" do not. MOST championships are won based on a grand class or back-to-back classes. After 2 years those kids have all moved on, but the ones who feel the adjustment sting probably don't need it.
This approach is short-sighted. It penalizes the underclassmen who had little to do with the previous seasons success.
So, they move up a class and struggle for two years. Then, they should be eligible to move back down, where two years of upper class play will have them potentially primed to succeed again against their normal class of competition.
Unless, for some reason their is no mechanism to move schools back down, meaning they are permanently penalized for a couple of years of success and eventually everyone can move up through the ranks until everyone is 4A and gets a trophy...
jerbob-
To build off your comparision, is hair color really the only factor in play?
Maybe the blondes in your story are 6'5" special forces-androids facing opponents that are second grade orphans with dark hair. So is it really hair color that's the secret to your "blonde's" success?
So goes it with the public-private debate. For reasons I have trouble understanding, some of us wish to classifying schools on a single variable when there are many factors that go into any successful football program. I happen to think there is a compelling argument, which I made and supported with IAHSAA data, that public/private status is not one of those primary success factors.
I'm willing to consider I'm wrong. All I'm asking is for someone in the 'unfair-private-school-advantage' corner to refute my position with hard, verifiable data. If the alterative position is valid, and Iowa really needs to make a change, people should be able to find Iowa data to support it.
edited to correct a typo
This post was edited on 10/21 11:58 PM by gg2224
To build off your comparision, is hair color really the only factor in play?
Maybe the blondes in your story are 6'5" special forces-androids facing opponents that are second grade orphans with dark hair. So is it really hair color that's the secret to your "blonde's" success?
So goes it with the public-private debate. For reasons I have trouble understanding, some of us wish to classifying schools on a single variable when there are many factors that go into any successful football program. I happen to think there is a compelling argument, which I made and supported with IAHSAA data, that public/private status is not one of those primary success factors.
I'm willing to consider I'm wrong. All I'm asking is for someone in the 'unfair-private-school-advantage' corner to refute my position with hard, verifiable data. If the alterative position is valid, and Iowa really needs to make a change, people should be able to find Iowa data to support it.
edited to correct a typo
This post was edited on 10/21 11:58 PM by gg2224
If they move up and struggle - then they get dropped back down and the 2 largest via BEDS ( more than likely the prior schools that dropped a class) will be moved back up.
Regina, Solon, Harlan, etc that have had their runs - would all be just fine up one class from where they were consecutive champions. Regina in 2A would be just fine, Solon was moved to 3A due to enrollment and are very competitive (and 1st year in 3A won the championship).
The system could be tweaked - fair and competitive games are what the norm seek, 50-0 half time games don't do much for either side.
The Quad City Times ran a story this morning that stated IL determines the 256 playoff teams based on regular season records and then divides them up into 8 classes with 32 teams. I do not know the tie breakers. That is an interesting concept.
This post was edited on 10/22 12:08 PM by o2bahawk
QC Times - IL playoffs
This post was edited on 10/22 12:08 PM by o2bahawk
QC Times - IL playoffs
gg,
Thanks for the well-thought out response. I definitely am not a private school "hater" personally. I just think there is an inherent advantage in terms of population.
For example, in my somewhat weak gym metaphor, the 80 dark-haired kids (DHK) come from an area where they are the complete total of kids available. There are no other kids to come from there; that's all they can ever produce in terms of numbers and athletic ability.
The 20 BHK come from an area with a population 5X larger than the DHK area. These 20 are the best of the best of their area, with 5 times more studs to choose from.
It's really not much different than why a 1A school would never beat a good 4A school. When you have than much of an advantage in total students you are just going to have more studs available. The BHK come from an area where there are 400 total kids to choose from. These 20 are just the best.
This may not be a great way to say that I think having a large population base to draw from (Xavier, Dowling, Regina) gives an advantage over schools that will only draw from their small town.
The more good looking women you are around, the higher chance of you marrying one. The more stud athletes in close proximity to a school, the more studs that school is probably going to get. I don't have a problem with private schools in small population bases to start with.
Having said that, everyone knows that DM East girls' team has stolen players from surrounding school districts, and they are obviously not a private school. I also have a problem with that.
I may be wrong on all of this.
Thanks for the well-thought out response. I definitely am not a private school "hater" personally. I just think there is an inherent advantage in terms of population.
For example, in my somewhat weak gym metaphor, the 80 dark-haired kids (DHK) come from an area where they are the complete total of kids available. There are no other kids to come from there; that's all they can ever produce in terms of numbers and athletic ability.
The 20 BHK come from an area with a population 5X larger than the DHK area. These 20 are the best of the best of their area, with 5 times more studs to choose from.
It's really not much different than why a 1A school would never beat a good 4A school. When you have than much of an advantage in total students you are just going to have more studs available. The BHK come from an area where there are 400 total kids to choose from. These 20 are just the best.
This may not be a great way to say that I think having a large population base to draw from (Xavier, Dowling, Regina) gives an advantage over schools that will only draw from their small town.
The more good looking women you are around, the higher chance of you marrying one. The more stud athletes in close proximity to a school, the more studs that school is probably going to get. I don't have a problem with private schools in small population bases to start with.
Having said that, everyone knows that DM East girls' team has stolen players from surrounding school districts, and they are obviously not a private school. I also have a problem with that.
I may be wrong on all of this.
When said 'studs' are in an area where they can go to two traditional 4A powers, a traditional 3A power, a 3A school with great facilities or one of the legendary 1A programs in the state, oh yeah and do it for free or go to a small school and pay for that honor it kind of levels out that playing field a little bit.
cid,
I can't argue that point. You are right that in most cases (not all) private school families are paying considerably more money to go to that school. My point still remains that most "non-city" public schools (i.e. schools in which that school is the only option available for kids) get what they get. There are no studs whose families choose to pay money to send them there in the area. Those coaches have the hand they are dealt unless the rare move-in kid comes. Private schools have many more families willing to pay the money to send their kid there. These public schools don't have parents who have options of other schools.
Again, there's a big part of me that believes that public schools just need to get better.
I have good friends who work in private schools and I don't have anything against them. They serve a purpose. But I just don't agree that private schools don't have any advantages over public schools.
I can't argue that point. You are right that in most cases (not all) private school families are paying considerably more money to go to that school. My point still remains that most "non-city" public schools (i.e. schools in which that school is the only option available for kids) get what they get. There are no studs whose families choose to pay money to send them there in the area. Those coaches have the hand they are dealt unless the rare move-in kid comes. Private schools have many more families willing to pay the money to send their kid there. These public schools don't have parents who have options of other schools.
Again, there's a big part of me that believes that public schools just need to get better.
I have good friends who work in private schools and I don't have anything against them. They serve a purpose. But I just don't agree that private schools don't have any advantages over public schools.
'Rare' move in kid? The OE numbers say otherwise. Those transfers carry little to no cost and are far more common.
And paying for their education is a choice - you keep throwing that out there like the kids that go to privates don't have a choice. As well, saying it is "Free" is not truthful, what do I and everyone else in said school district pay taxes for?
And you down played the "Small school" (which as you know) holds it's own against the 3A powers in the "area".
It is a choice and a difficult choice. People make it sound like it is easy for a school like Regina to just go get these 'studs' because there are so many of them. As far as it being free, guess who else pays taxes for your kid to go to school? Feel free to say thank you for our donations to your child's education. I am sure you are returning the favor in kind. Holding their own against 3A? You could say that.
Your choice is to participate in this grossly unfair system. Pull your kids out and start your own system. Your choice on that one.
cid,
My "rare move-in kid" was in response to communities and the rare times when a stud athlete actually relocates with his family to that community.
As a Pella fan, we had a stud track runner move in couple of years ago from Texas. He was instrumental in helping the track team with the state title. That is an example. Meanwhile, our girls' programs haven't had a great move-in student for years. Not complaining or whining, just giving an example of what I'm talking about.
Am I correct in assuming that there are many more "stud or good athlete" 9th graders (or older) that join a private school in high school that weren't in the district as 8th graders than an average public school?
My "rare move-in kid" was in response to communities and the rare times when a stud athlete actually relocates with his family to that community.
As a Pella fan, we had a stud track runner move in couple of years ago from Texas. He was instrumental in helping the track team with the state title. That is an example. Meanwhile, our girls' programs haven't had a great move-in student for years. Not complaining or whining, just giving an example of what I'm talking about.
Am I correct in assuming that there are many more "stud or good athlete" 9th graders (or older) that join a private school in high school that weren't in the district as 8th graders than an average public school?
At Regina it rarely happens. Typically it is in reverse, my sons class lost 14 kids of 64 going in to 9th grade.
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