Playoff Scenarios

[privateer13]

I went through some scenarios for playoffs.

District 1
ARWEVA - District champs regardless of a win or a loss.

NF- can get in the playoffs with a win. They have a high enough RPI they should get in. There are some tie scenarios that could push them out but unlikely. A loss would mean they would need some help. It depends on how far they drop in the RPI with the loss.

No one else has a shot. I don't see a 3 loss team making an at large bid.

District 2
NK- win and they are district champs a loss and they are in but will be RPI watching to see if they are district champs.

DB- win and they are in, they could be district champs if NK loses and they jump them in the RPI. A loss and they could still survive if there are just a few tied districts.

Rockford- a win guarantees them in. A loss they will be watching tied districts and RPI's. I don't see them jumping over NK and DB in the RP but with a loss of both those teams it is possible.

No one else is will have a chance.

District 3

TV- a win and they are in and most likely district champs. A loss and they still have a chance with a high RPI but they will be checking out tied districts.

Central City- a win and they are in. They wont be able to jump TV if both teams win but a TV slip and they will be champs. A loss and they will most likely be out with a lower RPI.

Midland- win and they are in. A three way tie means they are third team with a lower RPI.A loss and the lower RPI will put them out.

No one else has a chance.

District 4

IV- win and they are district champs. A loss they are in and the RPI may drop them below NL. They are in regardless.

NL- win and they are in. Could jump IV a be district champs with a IV loss. A loss and they will be watching for ties and RPI's. They have a high enough RPI they should survive.

HLV-win and they are in. A loss puts them on the bubble.

no one else has a chance

District 5

GR- in and are the champs.

AGWSR- only way in is with a win and a GR loss.

no one else has a chance

District 6

SEW- in with a win and champs. A loss could put them in with a three way tie. The RPI will definitely make them champs win or lose.

Lenox- With a win they will have a chance if they could get things to fall. A win and a SEW loss will put them in. A loss and they are out. A win and a SEW win will put them on the bubble.

Lamoni- only way in is with a win.

No one else has a chance

District 7

FM- win and they are champs. A loss and they could survive but will be on the bubble.

Stanton- win and they are champs. A loss puts them on the bubble.

EMills- win and a some help could get them in but with a lower RPI they need a lot of help

No one else has a chance

District 8

EEHK- win and they are champs. A loss and they could be in with a strong RPI

Audubon- Win and they are in. A loss and they are out.

No one else has a chance


Teams that have played an extra game and played teams with that played extra games are hurt in the RPI. I don't see a 6-3 team making. There are scenarios where a 8-1 team will miss out but that will take a lot of tied districts. There is only two tied district but potential for 7.

 

[privateer13]

If all the favorites win this will be how it looks:

Auto qualifiers:
ARWEVA
NK
TV
CENTRAL CITY
MIDLAND
IV
GR
SEW
FM
EEHK
AUDUBON

That leaves 5 spots for at large:

8-1 teams

DB--RPI 7th currently
NL--RPI 9th currently
NF--RPI 10th currently

7-2 teams "bubble"

Rockford-RPI 11th currently
Stanton-RPI 12th currently
HLV-RPI 13th currently
Lenox-RPI 17th currently
East Mills-RPI 18th Currently

If districts 2, 4 and 6 end in ties it will mean no at larges and one qualifier will not make it most likely Lamoni.

 

[cjm3260]

Isn't Rockford 7-1?

 

[privateer13]

Sorry I changed records to assume the favorites win Friday

 

[buck_1006]

How is Audubon an Automatic qualifier? If EEHK wins friday they are district champs. Audubon would be district runner up.

 

[privateer13]

How is Audubon an Automatic qualifier? If EEHK wins friday they are district champs. Audubon would be district runner up.

They will finish as co champs with EEHK being the automatic qualifying champ, and Audubon being a qualifier.

 

[privateer13]

I tried to run some RPI numbers (if they are correct). If all the favorites win the bubble teams will be in order:
Rockford
Stanton
HLV
Lenox
E Mills

if only two of the bubble teams qualify then Rockford and Stanton are the last two in.

 

[Smokinfr1blue7]

I don't see how stanton jumps east mills or lenox if they lose. Like your math teacher says "show your work."

 

[privateer13]

They don’t have to jump them they are already ahead of them. Unless the state is reporting bad numbers.

 

[hoiball32]

Stanton ahead of them right now because they only have one loss. If Stanton loses this Friday, their RPI will be lower than those teams based on current %'s provided by the state.

 

[privateer13]

They will all have the same win percentage but Stanton will increase their opponents win percentage and the others will decrease because they play teams that have a lesser winning percentage

 

[buck_1006]

EEHK has the tie breaker over Audubon. District 8 will not have co-champs. Audubon will fall into the at large field of potential qualifiers.

Determining the district champion:
1. The team with the fewest district losses will be the district champion.
2. If a tie exists between two teams with the fewest district losses, the tie will be broken by:
a. Head to Head competition, winner is district champion.
b. Loser enters into the at-large field of potential qualifiers.

 

[privateer13]

That's how they determine district champ and home field but from my understanding they are an auto qualifier. They could be knocked out if there is multiple ties that lead to more than 16 district "champs". The states language is a little hazy but that is how I read it.

 

[privateer13]

If I am wrong in my interpretation then there will be six at larges and Audubon jumps to the top of the 7-2 group.

 

[buck_1006]

District Champs and Automatic Qualifiers, In my projected RPI Order
ArWeVa 9-0
Iowa Valley, Marengo 9-0
Northwood-Kensett 9-0
Southeast Warren 10-0
Exira-EHK 8-1
Turkey Valley 8-1
Fremont-Mills 8-1
Central City 8-1
Midland, Wyoming 9-1
Gladbrook-Reinbeck 7-2

At Large Qualifiers, RPI Rankings if all higher ranked teams win friday night
(Not including Opponents Opponents Record, thats to much math)
Don Bosco 8-1 .8888 42-40 .5121 .7004
Newell-Fonda 8-1 .8888 37-45 .4512 .6700
New London 8-1 .8888 36-44 .4500 .6694
Audubon 7-2 .7777 43-38 .5308 .6542
Lenox 7-2 .7777 42-40 .5121 .6449
East Mills 7-2 .7777 36-45 .4444 .6110
Stanton 7-2 .7777 36-45 .4444 .6110
Rockford 7-2 .7777 35-47 .4268 .6022
HLV 7-2 .7777 34-47 .4197 .5987

East Mills has a better Opponents Opponents Record by only 3 wins as of right now over Stanton. It will be very close after tomorrow night.

The only 6-3 team that has a chance to get in by an at large qualifier is West Bend Mallard. That's if they won Friday night at Newell Fonda. Still unlikely they would make it in because of a weaker Opp Opp Record. If that happened than this would be the at large qualifiers. There would be a three way tie before the Opponents Opponents Records are added in. Only one team would make it in.

Don Bosco 8-1 .8888 42-40 .5121 .7004
New London 8-1 .8888 36-44 .4500 .6694
Audubon 7-2 .7777 43-38 .5308 .6542
Lenox 7-2 .7777 42-40 .5121 .6449
Newell-Fonda 7-2 .7777 38-44 .4634 .6205

East Mills 7-2 .7777 36-45 .4444 .6110 343-309
Stanton 7-2 .7777 36-45 .4444 .6110 340-311
West Bend Mallard 6-3 .6666 45-36 .5555 .6110 321-331

 

[privateer13]

Ya I was factoring the last opponent and forgot the state was keeping it up to date on all the opponents. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[buck_1006]

Big games tonight that will affect playoffs.
West Bend Mallard at Newell Fonda
Northwood Kensett at Rockford
Midland, Wyoming at Kee, Lancing
Springville at Central City
HLV at Iowa Valley
Lamoni at Southeast Warren
Stanton at Fremont Mills
Audubon at CAM
ExiraEHK at Coon Rapids Bayard

 

[BTB138]

In district 3 if tv loses midland will be the champs, with tv having 2 district losses and midland having the tie breaker over central city

 

[buck_1006]

TV isnt losing

 

[itsshowtime]

Only way turkey valley loses is if they forget to get off the bus...

 

[BTB138]

I agree, just going off what was originally stated in the post.