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Playoff Breakdown, Week 8

T

TresNorthwest

Oct 15, 2017
35
10
8
Iowa
I'd like to start this off by giving credit to @KidSilverhair for the original idea, this is just a similar representation of his work and format applied to Class A. Throughout this thread, I'll be using total points instead of differential. For District 6 (only 7 teams), I'll adjust the total points accordingly as the average will be over 6 games instead of 7.


DISTRICT 1 ​

WEST SIOUX has won the district.

The GEHLEN CATHOLIC/WESTWOOD winner is in as runner-up. The loser is in the wild card pool.

IF GEHLEN WINS:​
  1. WEST SIOUX (7-0, 9-0)
  2. GEHLEN CATHOLIC (6-1, 8-1)
  3. WESTWOOD (5-2, 6-3)
  4. AKRON-WESTFIELD (4-3, 5-4)
  5. WOODBURY CENTRAL (3-4, 4-5)
  6. LAWTON-BRONSON (2-5, 2-7)
  7. WEST MONONA (1-6, 3-6)
  8. MAPLE VALLEY-ANTHON-OTO (0-7, 0-9)
IF WESTWOOD WINS:​
  1. WEST SIOUX (7-0, 9-0)
  2. WESTWOOD (6-1, 7-2)
  3. GEHLEN CATHOLIC (5-2, 7-2)
  4. AKRON-WESTFIELD (4-3, 5-4)
  5. WOODBURY CENTRAL (3-4, 4-5)
  6. LAWTON-BRONSON (2-5, 2-7)
  7. WEST MONONA (1-6, 3-6)
  8. MAPLE VALLEY-ANTHON-OTO (0-7, 0-9)

DISTRICT 2​

BISHOP GARRIGAN has won the district.

SIOUX CENTRAL is runner-up. They won the head-to-head over Ridge View.

RIDGE VIEW is in the wild card pool if they beat South O'Brien.

  1. BISHOP GARRIGAN (7-0, 9-0)
  2. SIOUX CENTRAL (6-1, 7-2)
  3. RIDGE VIEW (5-2, 6-3)
  4. HARTLEY-MELVIN-SANBORN (4-3, 5-4)
  5. ST. EDMOND (3-4, 3-6)
  6. NORTH UNION (1-6, 2-7)
  7. SOUTH O'BRIEN (1-6, 1-8)
  8. MMCRU (1-6, 1-8)

DISTRICT 3
​
SAINT ANSGAR has won the district.

WEST HANCOCK is in, either as the runner-up or wild card, depending on whether they win or lose vs Nashua-Plainfield. Their Point Differential is too high for anyone to catch up.

NASHUA-PLAINFIELD is the runner-up if they win, if they lose they will be in the pool.

IF WEST HANCOCK WINS:​
  1. SAINT ANSGAR (7-0, 9-0)
  2. WEST HANCOCK (6-1, 6-3)
  3. NASHUA-PLAINFIELD (5-2, 6-3)
  4. GRUNDY CENTER (4-3, 5-4)
  5. NEWMAN CATHOLIC (3-4, 5-4)
  6. WEST FORK (2-5, 3-6)
  7. NORTH BUTLER (1-6, 3-6)
  8. ROCKFORD (0-7, 0-9)
IF NASHUA-PLAINFIELD WINS​
  1. SAINT ANSGAR (7-0, 9-0)
  2. NASHUA-PLAINFIELD (6-1, 7-2)
  3. WEST HANCOCK (5-2, 6-4)
  4. GRUNDY CENTER (4-3, 5-4)
  5. NEWMAN CATHOLIC (3-4, 5-4)
  6. WEST FORK (2-5, 3-6)
  7. NORTH BUTLER (1-6, 3-6)
  8. ROCKFORD (0-7, 0-9)

DISTRICT 4
​
WAPSIE VALLEY has won the district.

EAST BUCHANAN is the runner-up.

ALBURNETT is in the pool if they secure a win over Postville.

  1. WAPSIE VALLEY (7-0, 9-0)
  2. EAST BUCHANAN (6-1, 8-1)
  3. ALBURNETT (5-2, 7-2)
  4. LISBON (4-3, 6-3)
  5. NORTH LINN (4-3, 6-3)
  6. EDGEWOOD-COLESBURG (2-5, 3-6)
  7. POSTVILLE (1-6, 1-8)
  8. STARMONT (0-7, 0-9)

DISTRICT 5
​
HUDSON is in with a guaranteed share of the district championship. They own it if they beat Belle Plaine. If they lose and Gladbrook-Reinbeck beats Colfax-Mingo, Hudson falls from first place. If Hudson loses by less than 6 points, they are the district runner-up. If Hudson loses by 6 or more, they are the district third-place team.

GLADBROOK-REINBECK is in. They are the district runner-up if Hudson beats Belle Plaine. If they win by at least 4 points and Hudson loses by less than 14 points, Gladbrook-Reinbeck is in first place. If they win by less than 4 points and Hudson loses by 14 or more points, Gladbrook-Reinbeck is the district runner-up. If both Gladbrook-Reinbeck and Hudson lose, Gladbrook-Reinbeck is in the wild card pool.

BELLE PLAINE is in with a win over Hudson. They are in first place if they beat Hudson and Gladbrook-Reinbeck loses to Colfax-Mingo. Belle Plaine also gets into first place if they beat Hudson by 14 or more points or Gladbrook-Reinbeck wins by less than 5 points. If Gladbrook-Reinbeck wins by at least 5 points and Belle Plaine wins by anywhere from 6-14 points, Belle Plaine is the second place team. If Gladbrook-Reinbeck wins by at least 5 points and and Belle Plaine wins by less than 6 points, Belle Plaine is the third place team. Belle Plaine is out if they lose since their non-district loss to Alburnett will knock them out of the pool.

  1. HUDSON (7-0, 9-0)
  2. GLADBROOK-REINBECK (6-1, 8-1)
  3. BELLE PLAINE (5-2, 6-3)
  4. B-G-M (4-3, 4-5)
  5. COLFAX-MINGO (3-4, 4-6)
  6. NORTH TAMA (2-5, 3-6)
  7. GRAND VIEW CHRISTIAN (1-6, 1-8)
  8. GMG (0-7, 0-9)

DISTRICT 6
​
LYNNVILLE-SULLY is the district champion.

PEKIN is the district runner-up.

NEW LONDON is in the pool if they beat Winfield-Mt. Union.

MONTEZUMA is in the pool if they beat Lynnville-Sully and New London loses to Pekin.

  1. LYNNVILLE-SULLY (6-0, 8-0)
  2. PEKIN (5-1, 8-1)
  3. NEW LONDON (4-2, 6-2)
  4. MONTEZUMA (3-3, 4-4)
  5. NORTH MAHASKA (2-4, 2-7)
  6. CARDINAL (1-5, 1-7)
  7. WINFIELD-MT. UNION (0-6, 0-9)

DISTRICT 7
​
SOUTHWEST VALLEY has won the district.

ST. ALBERT has secured second place.

EARLHAM can stay in the pool with a win over Southeast Warren.

  1. SOUTHWEST VALLEY (7-0, 9-0)
  2. ST. ALBERT (6-1, 8-1)
  3. EARLHAM (5-2, 6-3)
  4. GRISWOLD (3-4, 4-5)
  5. MARTENSDALE-ST. MARYS (3-4, 4-5)
  6. SOUTHEAST WARREN (2-5, 4-5)
  7. RIVERSIDE (1-6, 2-7)
  8. NODAWAY VALLEY (1-6, 1-8)

Assuming there are no upsets, here is the wild card pool at first glance:
  • Nashua-Plainfield 48, down to 31
  • New London 46, up to 63
  • Alburnett 34, up to 51 (Won the head-to-head vs Belle Plaine)
  • Belle Plaine 68, down to 51 (Lost the head-to-head vs Alburnett)
  • Earlham 34, up to 51
  • Ridge View 29, up to 46
  • Westwood 27, up to 44
You're most likely going to have Alburnett and New London as the qualifiers. Belle Plaine is projected to lose by 22 to Hudson, and New London is expected to beat up on Winfield-Mt. Union. Ridge View and Earlham have no chance unless I'm mistaken. If Westwood wins, Gehlen Catholic would take the wild card spot from either New London or Alburnett. For the projected matchups, I'll use New London and Alburnett.
  • Sioux Central at West Sioux
  • St. Albert at Gehlen Catholic (2v2)
  • West Hancock at Bishop Garrigan
  • East Buchanan at Saint Ansgar
  • Gladbrook-Reinbeck at Wapsie Valley
  • Pekin at Southwest Valley
  • New London at Lynnville-Sully
  • Alburnett at Hudson
 
What would happen if Belle Plaine loses a close one to Hudson, say less than 5. Their total is 64 or greater, New London ends up with 63 and Alburnette has 51 with win over BP? Would that be Alb and BP in that scenario?
 
Well done. I feel for Pekin as there is no one closer to Corning than them... except St. Albert and they are in same district so wont play 1st round.

Unless An upset takes place, I see New London and Alburnett getting the 2 WC spots. Only thing I would switch is, that to avoid an in-district rematch between NL and Lynnville, I would ship Alburnett to Lynnville and NL to Hudson.
 
Last yr they shipped Hudson west and I think either them or Gladbrook goes west before Pekin this year. It would not be out of the question to sent St Ansger west either.If they ship Hudson west I could see Gladbrook going straight north to face St Ansger as its just up the road and then send Alb if they are the wildcard like you say to Lynville Sully.
 
the simplest formula to me seem to be to pair St Ansgar and Britt with Garrigan and Sioux Central. SW Valley and CBSA with West Sioux and Gehlen. But I don't think anyone wants to really see West Sioux and CBSA , could be a state championship game, in the first round.

in the east, GR @ wapsie, New London @ Hudson, Pekin vs East Buc , alburnett @ Lynnville-Sully. This could be flipped several ways I think.

This assume a lot goes right for Alburnett in week 9 (they beat Postville by >17, gehlen beats westwood sloan, Hudson beats belle plaine and Britt beats Nashua -Plainfield), and the state recognizes New London 4-2 record as equal all other districts 5-2 record, after they beat Winfield-MU.

An upset , and say westwood getting in would probably make it a lot easier for IAHSAA I'd suspect
 
The state needs to recognize New London's 4-2 season equal to other district's 5-2 seasons. With having the open week because of Danville vacating the district, it would only be fair. District 6 as a whole, should not be penalized because of one less win.
 
blackandgoldfan said:
The state needs to recognize New London's 4-2 season equal to other district's 5-2 seasons. With having the open week because of Danville vacating the district, it would only be fair. District 6 as a whole, should not be penalized because of one less win.
Click to expand...

They do recognize that. They are given adjusted points for the week they didn't play. The lack of game doesn't penalize them but the adjusted points that they are given will most likely hurt as LS, Pekin, and NL would no doubt win by 17+ over Danville. The state came out with a point differential of 14.3 or something like that to award them for that game. But don't worry Danville took 30+ kids to West Burlington to play so the rest of the district could suffer on points. That's what I think is wrong. Of course this is hear say but if it's true I have no respect for Danville.
 
G-R @ Wapsie Valley would be a really good 1st round match up. Kind of unfortunate if it shakes out that way but would be a great game.
 
player97 said:
G-R @ Wapsie Valley would be a really good 1st round match up. Kind of unfortunate if it shakes out that way but would be a great game.
Click to expand...

I could easily see Wapsie play Alburnett in a rematch or Nashua -Plainfield if they got in, just to avoid that. GR at Wapsie could be a championship quality game also, just like a CBSA -west Sioux first round match.
 
Danville did not take 30+ kids to WB, they only took 20 at the most. The rest of the team quit. I have No respect for Danville either!
 
Here is an updated projection, with the teams' current BCMoore rank in parentheses. We actually have 16 of the top 17 here, excluding Earlham (4).
  • Sioux Central (17) at West Sioux (1)
  • St. Albert (2) at Gehlen Catholic (11)
  • West Hancock (13) at Bishop Garrigan (12)
  • East Buchanan (14) at Hudson (5)
  • Gladbrook-Reinbeck (8) at Saint Ansgar (9)
  • Pekin (15) at Southwest Valley (3)
  • Alburnett (10) at Lynnville-Sully (7)
  • New London (16) at Wapsie Valley (6)
 
I think you are real close but Pekin will stay on the east and either Hudson like last yr or Gladbrook Reinbeck, St Ansger will go west. Think of it this way if they send Pekin west and they win, who then would you match them up against in 2nd rd as nobody remotely close, believe me the state looks at that. I stand by my claim hudson goes west.
 
Southwest valley can only play Pekin. There is no other runner up any closer. Do you send Southwest valley to the east side. Many years ago they sent Pella Christian to the west??
 
That would be correct.

There are more options available for after 1st round if Gladbrook heads west. As mentioned before, if Pekin happens to win they would have a brutal trip for the next game. Last year, there was no problem for Hudson going West. Better 2nd round options are available by doing so. I don't think that Earlham will surface as a wild card.
 
West Sioux vs St Alberts
SW valley vs Sioux central
Garrigan vs Gehlan
Britt vs Gladrook

Is what west could look like
 
Who would gladbrook match up with if they would head west? Algona first round? The state would not like to see st.ansgar vs gladbrook first round i dont think. A year a go there all of the play-off teams were in the I-80 corridor and north. The southern teams getting in have made for much more travel and in conventional matchups.
 
I would say garrigan or Britt not sure if they would want rematch of championship game in first round either
 
Here is how I think that it will break down

Quarterfinal #1
Britt @ Hudson
Alburnett @ St. Ansgar

Quarterfinal #2
New London @ Wapsie
Gladbrook @ East Buc (Alphabet)

Quarterfinal #3
CBSA @ Lynnville
Pekin @ Southwest Valley

Quarterfinal #4
Sioux Central @ West Sioux
Gehlan @ Garrigan

There is massive travel for only one of the quarter finals and I believe that the state would like to keep Hudson and Gladbrook in separate quarterfinals. The magic number for travel is under 149 after that the state has to pay nearly $350 per school that travels that far in addition to mileage (If I read the play-off manual correct). As in everything it comes down the the almighty dollar. Think that it allows for rematches in the quarters and semis that will get some good gates.
 
GOPANTHERS23 said:
Why would the state care if Hudson and Gr are in the same? lol and are u serious with st alberts going to lynnville? No way that will happen.
Click to expand...

Their district is next to one another, I know that there is no more sister district, but where do you send them? West Sioux cannot play Gehlan which means that you would have to send them the eastern side of the western bracket with Algona, Britt and whom ever Britt will play. If Gladbrook and lemars wins 218 miles. If Hudson and lemars wins 216 miles.

If you match Southwest Valley and Sioux Central with CBSA and West Sioux and the district finishes hold true then it is another 213 from Hawarden to Corning.

CB to Lynnville 183 miles. Assuming Lynnville wins the other remaining teams are in the neighborhood
 
I mean I guess. The state is going to have a few hard decisions on their hands of where people are getting sent. I will say there will for sure be some some complaining on travel and on first round match ups. If they do use the way you think west Sioux has a cake walk to the dome.
 
I think that Algona is flying under the radar again this year. State runner-ups and undefeated. I think that they have the size on the line to control the clock against West Sioux to keep their offense off of the field.
 
Onthefarm said:
Here is how I think that it will break down

Quarterfinal #1
Britt @ Hudson
Alburnett @ St. Ansgar

Quarterfinal #2
New London @ Wapsie
Gladbrook @ East Buc (Alphabet)

Quarterfinal #3
CBSA @ Lynnville
Pekin @ Southwest Valley

Quarterfinal #4
Sioux Central @ West Sioux
Gehlan @ Garrigan

There is massive travel for only one of the quarter finals and I believe that the state would like to keep Hudson and Gladbrook in separate quarterfinals. The magic number for travel is under 149 after that the state has to pay nearly $350 per school that travels that far in addition to mileage (If I read the play-off manual correct). As in everything it comes down the the almighty dollar. Think that it allows for rematches in the quarters and semis that will get some good gates.
Click to expand...


The best brackets yet if you go by matchups and travel distance. Why should Lynville Sully not play CBSA? Algona and West Sioux would be a good matchup assuming Algona can get by Gehlen as Gehlen has the size to match them.
 
Travel time from CB to Sully on I80 is just at 3 hours, especially on a bus. No way the state puts a team on the road 1st round for that distance and timeframe
 
blackandgoldfan said:
Travel time from CB to Sully on I80 is just at 3 hours, especially on a bus. No way the state puts a team on the road 1st round for that distance and timeframe
Click to expand...

Do you suggest Gehlen travels 197 so CBSA doesn't travel 183. The scenario this year with is that one team has to travel or they all travel. Southwest earned the right to stay home. So either you are a Lynville Sully fan scared of CBSA or a CBSA fan who doesn't want to travel but the scenario of CBSA going to Lynville Sully still makes the most sense for rankings, matchups, and travel for all the teams not just CBSA. Maybe agree to disagree because we can argue all we want the state will do whatever they feel brings the best crowds.
 
How is it determined which district is weak and which is strong? Is that usually just an opinion or is there a stat?
 
I could see the state possibly having some games at an alternate location. Are you promised a home game or just home team? IDK just putting that idea out there, especially for a second round game. Maybe Pekin meets someone in the middle if they were to play and beat Southwest. I have seen it done before.
 
This is still all speculation. Once we get past this Friday, we will know logistics and distances of the teams in playoffs.

I think the state will do whatever is best in the interest of the athletes as far as travel time goes. It is only benificial for the state to keep the games as close as possible to help with the gate proceeds. With long travel, it most likely will be a smaller gate.
 
My brackets would be

West

West Sioux vs Sioux Central
SW Valley vs Westwood
BGarrigan vs CBSA
GR vs WH

East

St A vs E Buc
WV vs Alb
Hud vs Pekin
LS vs NL

That is if NL gets in with a 4-2 record if Earlham gets the WC then they would replace GR and GR replaces NL
 
how about
ws vs cbsa 139 mi
swv vs sioux c 153 mi
garrigan vs westwood 153 mi
Gr vs WH 123 mi
StA vs E Buc 117 mi
WV vs Alb 61 mi
LS vs NL 116 mi
Huds vs Pekin 104 mi
 
Here's what the Gazette had:

Class A
East Bracket

Alburnett (7-2 overall, 5-2 D4-WC) at Lynnville-Sully (8-0 overall, 6-0 D6-CH)

East Buchanan (8-1 overall, 6-1 D4-RU) at Saint Ansgar (9-0 overall, 7-0 D3-CH)

New London (6-2 overall, 4-2 D6-WC) at Wapsie Valley (9-0 overall, 7-0 D4-CH)

Pekin (8-1 overall, 5-1 D6-RU) at Hudson (9-0 overall, 7-0 D5-CH)

West Bracket

West Hancock (6-3 overall, 6-1 D3-RU) at West Sioux (9-0 overall, 7-0 D1-CH)

Sioux Central (7-2 overall, 6-1 D2-RU) at Council Bluffs St. Albert (8-1 overall, 6-1 D7-RU)

LeMars Gehlen (8-1 overall, 6-1 D1-RU) at Southwest Valley (9-0 overall, 7-0 D7-CH)

Gladbrook-Reinbeck (8-1 overall, 6-1 D5-RU) at Algona Garrigan (9-0 overall, 7-0 D2-CH)
 
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