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Pella's chances in 3A substate 6?

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NeverReadTheTermsOfService

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Oct 2, 2014
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Pella is an interesting team this year. Coming off of a football championship, they lost their first two home games, which put them at 2-2. Since then, they have won 10 games in a row including poundings of Bondurant-Farrar at home, Norwalk at home and Dallas Center-Grimes on the road. Issac Naaktgeboren is scoring just over 17 points-per-game, and when the team hits three-pointers, they are nearly unstoppable. However, I do think there are multiple teams in their substate that have enough talent to pull an upset.

This is how the sustate breaks down, with each team's 5-15 record (as of Friday, Jan. 30th at 3:35 p.m.) in parenthesis.


District 11
Pella (10-0)
Chariton (9-2)
Centerville (5-6)
Oskaloosa (3-7)

District 12
Carlisle (6-3)
Knoxville (7-4)
Norwalk (6-4)
Winterset (1-9)

Note: The District 11 bracket is basically unofficially set, but the District 12 bracket is still up in the air.


If you had to give a percentage, what percent chance do you think the Dutch have of playing at Wells Fargo?
 
I'd agree, it's either Pella or Chariton.

Chariton really has two really good guys. Pella will use their press and every available foul to put pressure on those two guys.

I'll go out on a limb and give Pella the edge, although I'd like to see Chariton win the substate.
 
The likes of either WSR, Wahlert or Xavier will end that ride. Those guys run with the big boys and have a much tougher schedule.

This post was edited on 2/1 4:45 AM by thinkpad1
 
Originally posted by thinkpad1:
The likes of either WSR, Wahlert or Xavier will end that ride. Those guys run with the big boys and have a much tougher schedule.


This post was edited on 2/1 4:45 AM by thinkpad1
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While I'm not totally disagreeing with you, the same thing was being said during the football season. Pella plays 10 guys that are all very athletic and they press, pressure, and come at you hard for 32 minutes. Being state champs in football, they know how to compete and how to win. I don't think they are going to fold quite as easily as you think they will.

I also think they will get to state but basketball is a funny game. Chariton has two outstanding players though. Those guys are impressive.
 
Originally posted by thinkpad1:
The likes of either WSR, Wahlert or Xavier will end that ride. Those guys run with the big boys and have a much tougher schedule.

This post was edited on 2/1 4:45 AM by thinkpad1
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0 of the teams you mentioned are in this substate.
 
If Pella wins out theywill be #1 seed at state IF Waverly loses to Cedar Falls next week. If Waverly loses one more they'll be third seed. IF Waverly wins out they are #1 seed.
 
Originally posted by Earvin32:
If Pella wins out theywill be #1 seed at state IF Waverly loses to Cedar Falls next week. If Waverly loses one more they'll be third seed. IF Waverly wins out they are #1 seed.
Click to expand...
What about Williamsburg? They only have one loss, if they make it I think they are the #1 seed.

Not that seeding matters too much, Wahlert was 5th seed last year I believe, so it might be better
to have a bad seed so you can avoid them. Would be tough if WSR and Wahlert matched up in
the first round!

I agree with the consensus that Pella is favored but will have a tough matchup with Chariton (barring upsets). Norwalk doesn't look too bad either, I think they'll play the Dutch close if that is the substate. Chariton plays at Norwalk this week, so that might be a telling game for this substate.
 
Pellas chances? 90-95%

Chariton has played one of the weakest 3A schedules in the state. That will catch up to them in the playoffs.
 
Originally posted by ghost80:
Pellas chances? 90-95%

Chariton has played one of the weakest 3A schedules in the state. That will catch up to them in the playoffs.
Click to expand...
They played the same schedule last year and it didn't catch up to them (until they played Wahlert, I guess).

Pella showed this weekend that they do have a 90-95% chance, but it's because they are ridiculously good,
not because the teams they will play are bad. They just might be #1 in 3A when the rankings come out tomorrow.
 
Pella is very good this year but last year the bracketing gods did smile upon Chariton (sorry...you are the one who brought up last year). Their 2 district foes only won a combined 7 games. Their substate opponent while a good team also had played a very soft schedule and had an SOS only marginally above Chariton's. That substate game was decided by just 2 points.

Not trying to take anything away from anyone but typically you are what you eat and lots of wins against a soft schedule do not help you in the playoffs against a typical bracket.

If Chariton gets their ticket punched to the Well this year they will have very much earned it.
 
Originally posted by ghost80:
Pella is very good this year but last year the bracketing gods did smile upon Chariton (sorry...you are the one who brought up last year). Their 2 district foes only won a combined 7 games. Their substate opponent while a good team also had played a very soft schedule and had an SOS only marginally above Chariton's. That substate game was decided by just 2 points.

Not trying to take anything away from anyone but typically you are what you eat and lots of wins against a soft schedule do not help you in the playoffs against a typical bracket.

If Chariton gets their ticket punched to the Well this year they will have very much earned it.
I disagree in the sense that they didn't have an easy substate. In fact, I thought that was the toughest substate in the south with #2 DCG and #9 Bondurant in it. But looking back they were fortunate with a couple of upsets.

All I'm saying is that we shouldn't take anything away from Norwalk or Chariton this year just because they'll probably suffer losses to a team that I think has serious state championship potential. If either of those teams ended up in Substate 7 or 8, I would give them a real chance, but in my opinion, Pella is the dominant team in the south this year and whoever would've drawn them could consider themselves very unfortunate. When I first asked this question, I thought that those three teams were pretty even, but this weekend should have the Dutch feeling very good about themselves.
Click to expand...
 
Never,

I have no idea who had DCG ranked #2 and BF Ranked #9 last year but obviously those 2 teams did not live up to those rankings.

NeverReadTheTermsOfService posted on 2/8/2015...
I disagree in the sense that they didn't have an easy substate. In fact, I thought that was the toughest substate in the south with #2 DCG and #9 Bondurant in it. But looking back they were fortunate with a couple of upsets.
Click to expand...
 
Originally posted by ghost80:
Never,

I have no idea who had DCG ranked #2 and BF Ranked #9 last year but obviously those 2 teams did not live up to those rankings.

NeverReadTheTermsOfService posted on 2/8/2015...
I disagree in the sense that they didn't have an easy substate. In fact, I thought that was the toughest substate in the south with #2 DCG and #9 Bondurant in it. But looking back they were fortunate with a couple of upsets.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Those were the AP rankings. And I guess you could say they didn't live up to the rankings, but I stick with my position that it was a hard substate (or at least top-heavy). But that's neither here nor there, I think we both agree that Pella is going to win. They had a rough game against Grinnell last year and I think they are going to come out ready for everybody's best shot. If they do make it to state, it will be interesting to see if they are the unlucky team that draws Wahlert. What a first round matchup that could be!
 
This Pella basketball team is for real. After watching them put up 97 points in dismantling Newton last night I think they have a real shot at a title. You just don't appreciate how athletic, fast, and strong they are until you have watched them in person. Was the same way in football this year. They go 10 deep and follow the Hoiberg school of basketball in that they will try to maximize the amount of possessions they have, get lots of assists, everybody on the team can shoot threes decently, and get the ball down the court in a hurry at all times. If you don't get back on defense they will transition you to death. They have been getting better at minimizing turnovers and taking better shots, thus they are one of the top scoring teams in 3A.

They will be a team that nobody is going to want to play in the postseason as they are very dangerous. They press you and trap you the whole game. The opponent never gets a breather from the pressure. It can take a toll.

If you watched this team in December and then watched them now, you wouldn't think they are the same team. Is crazy how much better they are now, which I guess is the goal of every team.

Chariton is a good team with two great players, but I don't know that they, as a team, can handle 32 minutes of Pella's pressure and keep up with them in the scoring column. Pella will have to, most likely, get by Knoxville first and K'ville has had a good season. They have some outstanding sophs and will be a great team in the next years to come, but they struggled mightily with Pella last week losing by a bunch, at home.

As the football board knows, I'm a Pella homer, so I have some bias, but this team is really fun to watch.
 
Pella's stats look OK against the weak schedule they have. IF they square up against a healthy Wahlert, WSR or 4A Giant Killer Xavier, it won't even be close.
 
It's Pella's style not their stats that will make them a dangerous foe for anyone they will encounter at the Well.

I'm sure some Xavier fans would love to see their team deliver Pella an embarrassing loss but I don't see that happening. If the 2 matchup Xavier might win but it should be a good competative contest.
 
Originally posted by thinkpad1:

Pella's stats look OK against the weak schedule they have. IF they square up against a healthy Wahlert, WSR or 4A Giant Killer Xavier, it won't even be close.
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I wouldn't call Pella's schedule weak. They have an above average schedule for 3A. Maybe it's weak in comparison to some private schools who get away with being 3A because Iowa hasn't figured it out and bumped them to 4A yet.

As far as those three teams, I think Wahlert beats them, WSR game would be neck and neck and Xavier wouldn't come close.
 
Originally posted by fmclonefan:
This Pella basketball team is for real. After watching them put up 97 points in dismantling Newton last night I think they have a real shot at a title. You just don't appreciate how athletic, fast, and strong they are until you have watched them in person. Was the same way in football this year. They go 10 deep and follow the Hoiberg school of basketball in that they will try to maximize the amount of possessions they have, get lots of assists, everybody on the team can shoot threes decently, and get the ball down the court in a hurry at all times. If you don't get back on defense they will transition you to death. They have been getting better at minimizing turnovers and taking better shots, thus they are one of the top scoring teams in 3A.

They will be a team that nobody is going to want to play in the postseason as they are very dangerous. They press you and trap you the whole game. The opponent never gets a breather from the pressure. It can take a toll.

If you watched this team in December and then watched them now, you wouldn't think they are the same team. Is crazy how much better they are now, which I guess is the goal of every team.

Chariton is a good team with two great players, but I don't know that they, as a team, can handle 32 minutes of Pella's pressure and keep up with them in the scoring column. Pella will have to, most likely, get by Knoxville first and K'ville has had a good season. They have some outstanding sophs and will be a great team in the next years to come, but they struggled mightily with Pella last week losing by a bunch, at home.

As the football board knows, I'm a Pella homer, so I have some bias, but this team is really fun to watch.
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I completely agree with pretty much everything you just said. I think Chariton is a team that in theory could do it because of their athletes, but I don't think they will. And I think Norwalk is probably the second best team in the substate, but they match up horribly with the Dutch as proven a week or so ago. Maybe if they slow it down.
 
Wahlert and Xavier both play Mississippi Valley Conference other 4A teams: CR Kennedy, IA City West, Dowling, Linn-Mar, CR Washington, Waterloo, Cedar Falls, etc. Big difference in competition vs. Pella.
 
Originally posted by thinkpad1:

Wahlert and Xavier both play Mississippi Valley Conference other 4A teams: CR Kennedy, IA City West, Dowling, Linn-Mar, CR Washington, Waterloo, Cedar Falls, etc. Big difference in competition vs. Pella.
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So, because 2 teams in 3A play in that conference, it makes everyone else's schedule weak? I think what that means is those teams should be in 4A, not 3A. If you're so proud of playing with the big boys, I'd hope you're in favor of a multiplier for private schools so you can play them at tourney time as well.


There's also a big difference between winning and losing. Pella hasn't lost since their 4th game of the season. Xavier lost 3 in a row just 1 week ago.
 
Correct. Against Linn-Mar who was #4 in 4A until last night when Xavier beat them , CR Washington and IA City West who is currently #1 in 4A. Again, big difference in competition. Maybe Pella should step it up and play some of those teams. Their record would be much different. Man up!!
This post was edited on 2/11 3:05 PM by thinkpad1
 
Originally posted by thinkpad1:
Correct. Against Linn-Mar who was #4 in 4A until last night when Xavier beat them , CR Washington and IA City West who is currently #1 in 4A. Again, big difference in competition. Maybe Pella should step it up and play some of those teams. Their record would be much different. Man up!!
This post was edited on 2/11 3:05 PM by thinkpad1
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No, those losses haven't been to just those teams. Xavier has also lost against Dubuque Senior (10-8) and Cedar Rapids Prairie (8-11). Also, Washington is 9-9. (Not to mention WSR and Kennedy) And let's not forget that about half of Xavier's losses have been blowouts. I don't see why you would keep bringing up Xavier in threads that aren't about Xavier anyway, but you should just accept that they aren't as good as people said they were going to be pre-season.
 
When you get to state, you throw the records and previous competition out. It's all about which team can take care of the ball and put it in the basket more than the opponent. Plus, everybody in the stands (except the favored team) will be cheering for the underdog. My personal opinion is that the MVC has one great team---West IC--- and the rest aren't any better than most of the 3A field will be. Two weekends ago, Waverly went to Cedar Falls (which beat Wahlert) and held this upper division MVC team to ONE FIELD GOAL in the second half. Heart and determination are huge factors too. Sure, some years some teams are loaded, but they still have to play the game. Since this thread is about Pella-- I think they have as good a chance as anybody to win the title. And as a lawyer would say (I'm not one), Chariton has the possibility of winning the substate, but Pella in all probability will win the substate. .
 
You do realize that Pella isn't very close to Iowa City and Cedar Rapids? If they were to schedule more 4A schools, wouldn't be in that part of the state, they would stay around Des Moines. Pella plays Des Moines area schools in lots of sports, but I don't know for sure why they don't play them in basketball. The metro schools have pretty full schedules already with the size of their conference, so I don't know how many out of conference games they get. Pella wouldn't shy away from playing those teams, as they don't in any sport.

I think you need to be careful in thinking that just because a team plays mostly large schools that that automatically makes them the better team if they come up against a smaller school. I'm not saying Pella will beat Wahlert, Assumption, or Xavier but one of the other "weak" 3A teams that you are belittling just might!

Back in the day when I was playing for a 3A school, we beat many 4A schools during the seasons and in team camps during the summer. Then we ran into a little 1A school named Palmer that beat the crap out of us and other schools much bigger then us in a team camp. That was humbling. Bigger doesn't always mean better.
 
Kinda like the HOOSIERS back in Hickory? Odds are slim but all the power to em. May the best sportsman win and the boys have fun. Love high school sports!!

This post was edited on 2/11 6:59 PM by thinkpad1
 
Pella's chance in their substate is Highly Likely....at the end of the year some teams are playing better and their records don't reflect how good they can be, Valley can into the tournament with about .500 record and won state back 90's, even last year Valley was not favored going in to State but played well at the right time. Also match-ups are a huge factor how game turn out. Also who a team has played down the stretch of the regular season can effect how far they might go in the tournament
 
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