New! Improved! Playoff Guesser v. 2.1

[KidSilverhair]

Okay, the numbers have been crunched, the distances have been guesstimated, and I've divined the sheep guts and the changing winds and the flipping coins. It's time to throw out my best guesses with just two weeks left to go!

I'm going to divide this into three separate parts. First, in this post, I will go through who's in, who's out, and what needs to happen for the rest of the qualifiers to make it. Within reason - there's still a lot of variations in a few districts that can wreak havoc.

The second post will have my predicted qualifiers and the (estimated) distances between possible opponents. I will wrap things up with another post with my predictions for first round matchups.

None of this will actually happen, of course. Every year the last two weeks throw in a number of upsets and coin-flip games that make a psychic want to throw away his crystal ball. But hey! It's worth trying anyhow, right?

Here goes:

DISTRICT 1

SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON is in the playoffs
SIOUX CITY HEELAN is in with a win Friday
BOYDEN-HULL/ROCK VALLEY is in with a win Friday
SPENCER is in with wins by Heelan and BHRV
STORM LAKE is in with a win and some help
LeMARS is in with two wins and some help
DENISON-SCHLESWIG is out
​

DISTRICT 2

WEBSTER CITY is in
CARROLL is in with a win Friday
BOONE is in with a win and a loss by Humboldt next week
ALGONA is in with a win
HUMBOLDT is in with a win next week and some help
GREENE COUNTY is in with two wins and help
PERRY is out
​

DISTRICT 3

INDEPENDENCE is in, and wins the district with a win Friday
WEST DELAWARE is in
DECORAH is in
WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK is in with two wins
CRESTWOOD is in with two wins
VINTON-SHELLSBURG might make it in with two wins and some help, but points might be tough
CHARLES CITY could theoretically qualify with two wins and help, but probably can't make up the points
​

DISTRICT 4

XAVIER is in and has locked up the district title
MAQUOKETA is in and can guarantee 2nd place with a win Friday
SOLON is in with a win and a win by Maquoketa
DUBUQUE WAHLERT is in with a win plus wins by Maquoketa and Solon
WESTERN DUBUQUE needs two wins and help
CENTRAL DeWITT is in with two wins and help
MARION is out
​

DISTRICT 5

DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION is in
WASHINGTON is in
FAIRFIELD is in (and still has an outside shot at the district title)
CLEAR CREEK-AMANA is in
KEOKUK is out
MT. PLEASANT is out
FT. MADISON is out
(This district will likely decide between first and second AND third and fourth October 23, with Washington at Assumption and Fairfield at CCA)
​

DISTRICT 6

GILBERT is in with a win Friday, or a Bondurant-Farrar loss, or a Grinnell loss next week
BALLARD is in with a win Friday plus either a Bondurant-Farrar loss or a Grinnell loss next week
BONDURANT-FARRAR is in with a win Friday and a Grinnell loss next week
GRINNELL is in with a win next week plus help
BENTON COMMUNITY is in with a win next week and a Bondurant-Farrar loss Friday, or with two Grinnell losses
NEVADA is out
NEWTON is out​

DISTRICT 7

PELLA is in
NORWALK is in
CARLISLE is in with a win and help
CHARITON is in with a win and help
KNOXVILLE is in with two wins and help
OSKALOOSA is in with two wins, or one win and help
SAYDEL is out
​

DISTRICT 8

GLENWOOD is in
DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES is in
HARLAN is in
CRESTON is in with a win Friday
ADM needs two losses by Creston, a win next week, and help
WINTERSET needs two losses by Creston, a win Friday, and help
ATLANTIC needs to win twice, have Creston lose twice, and get some help.​

 

[KidSilverhair]

Okay, now here's my expected qualifiers. I'm making some guesses on some good matchups the last two weeks, plus a wild stab at a tiebreaker in D-2, but what the hey.

DISTRICT 1
The only game that really has much of an impact left in this district is SB-L at Spencer on October 23.

SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON (6-0/8-1)
SIOUX CITY HEELAN (5-1/8-1)
BHRV (4-2/7-2)
SPENCER (3-3/6-3)
Storm Lake (2-4/2-7)
LeMars (1-5/1-8)
Denison-Schleswig (0-6/0-9)
​

DISTRICT 2
Big games left here (depending on how good Boone actually is) are Carroll at Algona and Boone at Greene County this week, and Boone at Webster City next week.
I also took a stab at the tiebreaker for 3rd through 5th place, guessing that Boone loses out

WEBSTER CITY (6-0/9-0)
CARROLL (5-1/6-3)
HUMBOLDT (3-3/4-5)
ALGONA (3-3/6-3)
Boone (3-3/3-6)
Greene County (1-5/3-6)
Perry (0-6/0-9)​

DISTRICT 3
Huge game Friday with Independence at West Delaware, plus Crestwood at Waverly-Shell Rock. Then West Delaware at Decorah next week.

WEST DELAWARE (6-0/9-0)
INDEPENDENCE (5-1/8-1)
DECORAH (4-2/5-4)
WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK (3-3/6-3)
Crestwood (2-4/3-6)
Vinton-Shellsburg (1-5/2-7)
Charles City (0-6/3-6)
​

DISTRICT 4
Solon has a couple of games of note, hosting Western Dubuque Friday and traveling to Wahlert next week.

XAVIER (6-0/8-0)
MAQUOKETA (5-1/6-3)
SOLON (4-2/5-4)
DUBUQUE WAHLERT (3-3/3-6)
Western Dubuque (2-4/3-6)
Central DeWitt (1-5/1-8)
Marion (0-6/0-9)
​

DISTRICT 5
Assumption at Fairfield this week, then huge matchups with Washington at Assumption and Fairfield at Clear Creek-Amana next week.

DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION (6-0/7-2)
WASHINGTON (5-1/7-2)
CLEAR CREEK-AMANA (4-2/5-4)
FAIRFIELD (3-3/4-5)
Keokuk (2-4/3-6)
Ft. Madison (1-5/3-6)
Mt. Pleasant (0-6/0-9)
​

DISTRICT 6
Gilbert at Grinnell could mean a lot Friday, then Grinnell at Ballard and Benton Community at Gilbert next week.

GILBERT (6-0/8-1)
BALLARD (5-1/7-2)
BONDURANT-FARRAR (4-2/6-3)
BENTON COMMUNITY (3-3/5-4)
Grinnell (2-4/4-5)
Nevada (1-5/3-6)
Newton (0-6/0-9)​

DISTRICT 7
What will really help figuring out the middle of this district is Chariton at Carlisle and Oskaloosa at Knoxville Friday, then Carlisle at Oskaloosa next week.

PELLA (6-0/9-0)
NORWALK (5-1/8-1)
CHARITON (3-3/6-3 - wins tiebreaker head-to-head over Carlisle. Maybe. Because I'm calling it that way for now.)
CARLISLE (3-3/5-4)
Knoxville (2-4/5-4)
Oskaloosa (2-4/2-7)
Saydel (0-6/2-7)​

DISTRICT 8
Big games here Friday. Harlan at Glenwood and Creston at Dallas Center-Grimes. Next week, Dallas Center-Grimes at Glenwood, possibly for the district title (I'm calling DC-G in that one).

DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES (6-0/8-1)
GLENWOOD (5-1/8-1)
HARLAN (4-2/7-2)
CRESTON/OM (3-3/5-4)
ADM (1-5/3-6)
Atlantic (1-5/2-7)
Winterset (1-5/2-7 - yes, I'm also calling Atlantic over Winterset this Friday.)​

 

[KidSilverhair]

I lied a little bit. Here's an additional post with the mileages. I took everything off Google Maps, so these are driving distances; if the state goes by "as the crow flies," these may not be completely accurate. I also used high school addresses, with the exception of the Rock Bowl for Wahlert and Brady Street Stadium for Assumption. I realize some other schools may play at off-campus sites, but I didn't know which ones or where.

ONES v FOURS

SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON

Algona 153 miles; Waverly-Shell Rock 221 miles; Wahlert 303 miles; Fairfield 304 miles; Benton 260 miles; Carlisle 192 miles; Creston 180 miles​

WEBSTER CITY

Spencer 112 miles; Waverly-Shell Rock 87 miles; Wahlert 168 miles; Fairfield 184 miles; Benton 121 miles; Carlisle 85 miles; Creston 122 miles​

WEST DELAWARE

Spencer 234 miles; Algona 181 miles; Wahlert 44 miles; Fairfield 139 miles; Benton 64 miles; Carlisle 163 miles; Creston 227 miles​

XAVIER

Spencer 239 miles; Algona 185 miles; Waverly-Shell Rock 75 miles; Fairfield 93 miles; Benton 28 miles; Carlisle 124 miles; Creston 188 miles​

DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION

Spencer 326 miles; Algona 272 miles; Waverly-Shell Rock 156 miles; Wahlert 71 miles; Benton 102 miles; Carlisle 172 miles; Creston 236 miles​

GILBERT

Spencer 145 miles; Algona 95 miles; Waverly-Shell Rock 99 miles; Wahlert 181 miles; Fairfield 148 miles; Carlisle 53 miles; Creston 108 miles​

PELLA

Spencer 231 miles; Algona 177 miles; Waverly-Shell Rock 120 miles; Wahlert 184 miles; Fairfield 68 miles; Benton 83 miles; Creston 100 miles​

DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES

Spencer 166 miles; Algona 115 miles; Waverly-Shell Rock 130 miles; Wahlert 204 miles; Fairfield 129 miles; Benton 107 miles; Carlisle 30 miles

​

TWOS v THREES

HEELAN

Humboldt 123 miles; Decorah 284 miles; Solon 281 miles; CCA 286 miles; Bondurant-Farrar 204 miles; Chariton 243 miles; Harlan 95 miles​

CARROLL

BHRV 136 miles; Decorah 234 miles; Solon 183 miles; CCA 178 miles; Bondurant-Farrar 96 miles; Chariton 148 miles; Harlan 54 miles​

INDEPENDENCE

BHRV 264 miles; Humboldt 137 miles; Solon 64 miles; CCA 64 miles; Bondurant-Farrar 121 miles; Chariton 163 miles; Harlan 159 miles​

MAQUOKETA

BHRV 349 miles; Humboldt 221 miles; Decorah 127 miles (so close!); CCA 78 miles; Bondurant-Farrar 168 miles; Chariton 207 miles; Harlan 290 miles​

WASHINGTON

BHRV 353 miles; Humboldt 222 miles; Decorah 164 miles; Solon 52 miles; Bondurant-Farrar 113 miles; Chariton 102 miles; Harlan 212 miles​

BALLARD

BHRV 218 miles; Humboldt 91 miles; Decorah 182 miles; Solon 123 miles; CCA 118 miles; Chariton 78 miles; Harlan 109 miles​

NORWALK

BHRV 235 miles; Humboldt 108 miles; Decorah 201 miles; Solon 135 miles; CCA 119 miles; Bondurant-Farrar 25 miles; Harlan 106 miles​

GLENWOOD

BHRV 177 miles; Humboldt 192 miles; Decorah 335 miles; Solon 266 miles; CCA 252 miles; Bondurant-Farrar 154 miles; Chariton 132 miles​

You can already see the challenges. There are no non-district teams within the 125-mile limit for SBL, nor for BHRV, nor for Glenwood, nor for Decorah (unless my 127 miles to Maquoketa is off from what the state uses). Since those teams then get locked into district rematches, that removes Spencer, Heelan, Harlan and Independence from any other consideration. The next post shows what I think might happen.

​

 

[KidSilverhair]

So here we are. My guesses for first round pairings. I looked again (and again) at the postseason manual - while it says the state will try extra hard to prevent district rematches unless mileage limits make it absolutely necessary, it DOESN'T say they will work extra hard to prevent rematches between other teams (like, say, Wahlert and Assumption, or Solon and Washington, who played nondistrict games during the season).

Anyway, here's what I came up with, based on my guesses for qualifiers:

ONES v FOURS

Spencer at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (district rematch)
Waverly-Shell Rock at Webster City
Dubuque Wahlert at West Delaware
Fairfield at Xavier
Benton Community at Davenport Assumption
Algona at Gilbert
Creston at Pella
Carlisle at Dallas Center-Grimes
​

TWOs v THREES

BHRV at Heelan (district rematch)
Bondurant-Farrar at Carroll
Decorah at Independence (district rematch)
Clear Creek-Amana at Maquoketa
Solon at Washington (regular season rematch)
Chariton at Ballard
Humboldt at Norwalk
Harlan at Glenwood (district rematch)​

 

[fmclonefan]

That was a whole lot of work you just did there! Thanks for laying that all out to see.

 

[FLBP]

I appreciate all the work you two do on this subject. Thank you.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Thanks. It's fun for me, but I'm weird that way. I'm just glad others enjoy my stuff.

Every year I always realize unforeseen things happen over the past few weeks and my predictions are never spot on (although I get a lot better after Week 9, ha ha), but I still like doing it anyway.

 

[captain_sparrow]

Thanks, KidSilverHair! Seeing the travel distances for each team really helps to put things into better perspective.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

All I can say is WOW!