New 4A Conference?...
- Thread starter screwloose
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I totally agree with PNation. No way Newton gets back to the 700 number unless they start allowing inmates families to move into the district with the prison.
After looking at the enrollment numbers above
One of the factors you have to look at for this non-football conference is declining enrollment. Some of these 8 schools are facing a steady process of declining enrollment unless some major economic development occurs in their communities. If I were going to generally predict enrollment trends in the next 5 years, at least 4 of the schools in this proposed 4A conference will have negative enrollment growth (including at least 2 of Des Moines City Schools). I don't think Indianola will be facing that issue. IMO Their community is close enough to Des Moines to remain stable. If this conference doesn't form, then some of these participants may look to join a conference that crosses both 4A and Higher 3A enrollments like Sooner suggests.
However I can't imagine that Indianola would like to remain in the 19 member CIML in all sports to just make it easier on the suburban team's schedule?
If believe one of the suburban schools ...Urbandale...along with Newton were the teams looking at another conference several years ago in all sports including football.
One of the factors you have to look at for this non-football conference is declining enrollment. Some of these 8 schools are facing a steady process of declining enrollment unless some major economic development occurs in their communities. If I were going to generally predict enrollment trends in the next 5 years, at least 4 of the schools in this proposed 4A conference will have negative enrollment growth (including at least 2 of Des Moines City Schools). I don't think Indianola will be facing that issue. IMO Their community is close enough to Des Moines to remain stable. If this conference doesn't form, then some of these participants may look to join a conference that crosses both 4A and Higher 3A enrollments like Sooner suggests.
However I can't imagine that Indianola would like to remain in the 19 member CIML in all sports to just make it easier on the suburban team's schedule?
If believe one of the suburban schools ...Urbandale...along with Newton were the teams looking at another conference several years ago in all sports including football.
Indianola BEDs number have had very little change the past few years with ever so slow increases.
2010-11= 767
2011-12= 774
2012-13= 834
2013-14= 849
For the most part an old AD at the meeting when the Little Hawkeye Conf talk came up said Indianola had grown but it was very very little and basically the graduating class size since the late 70s has remained in the the 210-250 range, Nothing alarming and to the best of my knowledge I don't see any big classes coming up in the near future.
Really no big economic growth in town either, I don t see any new businesses popping up with big employment opportunities.
It is a a bedroom town for Des Moines wanting to be a big boy at the party and its just not the way it is.
2010-11= 767
2011-12= 774
2012-13= 834
2013-14= 849
For the most part an old AD at the meeting when the Little Hawkeye Conf talk came up said Indianola had grown but it was very very little and basically the graduating class size since the late 70s has remained in the the 210-250 range, Nothing alarming and to the best of my knowledge I don't see any big classes coming up in the near future.
Really no big economic growth in town either, I don t see any new businesses popping up with big employment opportunities.
It is a a bedroom town for Des Moines wanting to be a big boy at the party and its just not the way it is.
There is no way Fort Dodge and Mason City are joining the NCC. That would mean Fort Dodge and St. Edmond would play each other in all sports and Fort Dodge does not want any part of it. Despite being five times smaller than Fort Dodge, St. Edmond, In the past decade, would have dominated Fort Dodge in all the boys' sports except maybe baseball and wrestling. If that continues, it would be very embarassing for Fort Dodge, Fort Dodge has been totally envious of St. Edmond's successes.
Sooner,
Your conference alignment makes sense for a non-football sports. Correct me if I am wrong, but I could easily see Osky falling below 500 students, Ottumwa falling to less then 800 students, and Marshalltown going below 1000 in the near future. I believe the only reason their enrollments haven't fell more, is the lack of private/parochial high schools as an alternate to the public high schools.
The few urban areas in Iowa have the advantages in socioeconomics and housing starts to swell their high schools even more. The suburban communities serve the new service industries versus some of the old manufacturing companies in the isolated 4A towns.
Are the Dallas Center Grimes and Norwalk high schools heading toward the Johnston or even the Waukee model these days? If so these will be the 4A replacement schools.
Your conference alignment makes sense for a non-football sports. Correct me if I am wrong, but I could easily see Osky falling below 500 students, Ottumwa falling to less then 800 students, and Marshalltown going below 1000 in the near future. I believe the only reason their enrollments haven't fell more, is the lack of private/parochial high schools as an alternate to the public high schools.
The few urban areas in Iowa have the advantages in socioeconomics and housing starts to swell their high schools even more. The suburban communities serve the new service industries versus some of the old manufacturing companies in the isolated 4A towns.
Are the Dallas Center Grimes and Norwalk high schools heading toward the Johnston or even the Waukee model these days? If so these will be the 4A replacement schools.
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