Football's equivalent of the Hot Stove League: projected new districts

[paxregis]

It's that magical time that only comes around every other year: "What will the new football districts look like?" We have several months (March) until the real districts are released the the IHSAA and almost as long (January) before the Iowa Department of education releases their enrollment data, but I thought I would try to keep the boards engaged by mocking up classes & districts based off grade 8-10 enrollment from the fall of 2012. That should give a good approximation of where this fall's 9-11 enrollment should stack up the schools. I will be posting each class projection on their own board until Luke consolidates everything to the off-season football board.


1 119 Akron-Westfield
1 141 Emmetsburg
1 124 Hinton
1 143 Lawton-Bronson
1 122 LeMars Gehlen
1 150 Sioux Central
1 141 West Sioux
1 128 Woodbury Central

2 137 AGWSR, Ackley
2 112 Algona Garrigan
2 137 GTRA, Graettinger
2 142 Lake Mills
2 138 Manson Northwest Webster
2 127 Mason City Newman
2 115 Southeast Webster
2 142 West Hancock

3 137 Bellevue
3 124 East Buchanan
3 135 Nashua-Plainfield
3 143 North Butler
3 137 Postville
3 148 Starmont
3 136 Wapsie Valley

4 131 BCLUW, Conrad
4 113 Belle Plaine
4 143 Gladbrook-Reinbeck
4 127 Grundy Center
4 148 Hudson
4 126 Iowa Valley
4 135 North Tama

5 141 Alburnett
5 134 BGM, Brooklyn
5 138 Central City
5 119 Colo NESCO
5 128 Montezuma
5 132 Northeast, Goose Lake
5 130 Pleasantville

6 141 Cardinal
6 124 English Valleys
6 127 New London
6 133 North Mahaska
6 151 Pekin
6 111 Southeast Warren
6 154 Van Buren County

7 131 Audubon
7 140 Bedford
7 153 Central Decatur
7 146 Earlham
7 118 East Union
7 131 Martensdale-St Marys
7 142 Mount Ayr
7 154 Van Meter

8 153 AHST, Avoca
8 131 East Mills
8 140 Griswold
8 119 Logan-Magnolia
8 151 Riverside
8 151 Treynor
8 150 Tri-Center
8 122 Westwood

 

[usfhawk]

154 the cutoff?

Good work with these.

 

[hawkfbfan]

Where is Lynnville-Sully at?

 

[HANSEN23X]

Four of those teams in Dist. 8 will be 1A and one will be 8 Man.

 

[hawkfbfan]

Woodward-Granger??

 

[HANSEN23X]

Woodward and Madrid both pry be 1a

 

[brewcrewman1]

Alta/Aurelia seems to be missing. I don't think they will be moving up to 1A but I could be mistaken.

 

[UIhawkeyes]

I dont know where your getting you numbers, but Northeast Goose Lake is well over 200 in BEDs and will likely be 2A. Also, Easton Valley will be playing A with BED around 130.

 

[usfhawk]

pax, you did a great job with these, but the numbers are off quite a bit.

ex: Last year Hinton reported: 8th: 62 9th: 57 10th: 48 Total: 167

Most that I checked were off a bit. Where did you get those numbers?

I my have the wrong ones also.





BEDS

 

[gmgwolverine05]

Most importantly where is GMG? I know they aren't going to 8 man after the season they just had. They will be a dominate force in the years to come.

 

[your_master5]

So what do you propose happened to the teams in district 5? I think your cutoff numbers are off because none of the following teams are going to 8 man, they aren't going to 1A, and they aren't giving up football:

Lisbon
WACO
Lone Tree
Highland Riverside
Winfield Mount Union
Danville

Those are six Class A schools for certain. I've also heard Sigourney and Keota split. They will be both Class A schools as independents. That's another new district right there

 

[PNation]

Keota I have heard will play 8 man, Sigourney Class A

Is Central City coming up for sure, will the state force them too?

What about Janesville, I know there enrollment has really risen with open enrollment kids the last few years.

 

[SICL Cares]

Originally posted by PNation:
Keota I have heard will play 8 man, Sigourney Class A

Is Central City coming up for sure, will the state force them too?

What about Janesville, I know there enrollment has really risen with open enrollment kids the last few years.

Have we finally come to the end of S-K football? Sad to see if it is, do the parents and kids just not like each other? I know a few years back when they had the undefeated season up until they played Regina it seemed like all of the kids just loved each other and were very proud teammates.

 

[usfhawk]

Will be interesting to see how things shake out. Rumor is that CBSA will be moving to class A.

 

[paxregis]

Since I put my mock up out in November, I have since found out the Iowa Department of Education had posted revised 2012-13 enrollment numbers. That changed my model quite a bit. Also, someone else pointed out on this topic on another board that several schools gain students from K-8 private schools in their towns. So I went back and redrew everything with the most up-to-date information I have to create a new "best guess" at what districts might look like.



1 126 Akron-Westfield
1 144 Lawton-Bronson
1 122 LeMars Gehlen
1 151 MVAO, Mapleton
1 152 South O'Brien
1 127 West Sioux
1 130 Westwood
1 132 Woodbury Central

2 120 AGWSR, Ackley
2 112 Algona Garrigan
2 158 Alta-Aurelia
2 158 Belmond-Klemme
2 127 Mason City Newman
2 152 North Union
2 113 Southeast Webster
2 142 West Hancock

3 153 Bellevue
3 119 East Buchanan
3 129 Edgewood-Colesburg
3 155 Maquoketa Valley
3 125 Nashua-Plainfield
3 128 Postville
3 136 Starmont
3 135 Wapsie Valley

4 145 BCLUW, Conrad
4 109 Belle Plaine
4 127 Gladbrook-Reinbeck
4 102 GMG, Garwin
4 136 Grundy Center
4 159 Hudson
4 119 Iowa Valley
4 142 North Butler

5 139 BGM, Brooklyn
5 125 Central City
5 145 Colfax-Mingo
5 136 Lisbon
5 120 Lynnville-Sully
5 118 Montezuma
5 147 North Linn
5 132 North Tama

6 146 Cardinal
6 148 Danville
6 113 Lone Tree
6 127 New London
6 143 North Mahaska
6 141 Van Buren County
6 105 WACO, Wayland
6 116 Winfield-Mount Union

7 124 Bedford
7 149 Earlham
7 123 Martensdale-St Marys
7 121 Mount Ayr
7 158 Nodaway Valley
7 138 Pleasantville
7 110 Southeast Warren
7 157 Van Meter

8 140 AHST, Avoca
8 138 Audubon
8 157 Council Bluffs St Albert
8 130 Griswold
8 135 Logan-Magnolia
8 139 Riverside
8 156 Tri-Center
8 158 West Monona



This post was edited on 12/28 7:32 PM by paxregis

 

[DogClone]

Thanks for all you work on this. Atla-Aurelia would be in for some long road trips in D2, even on a Friday night..

 

[warriors dad]

Southeast Webster is not having varsity football for the next 2 yrs! J V ONLY.Prarie Valley and SEWG school boards are voting on whole grade sharing on jan 20th and 21st respectively! My sources have told me pv is already in class A for the next 2 yrs,since the deadline has already passed it will not matter if they combine for sports or not.pv's school board is projected to vote yes and SEWG is very close for a projected total vote of 4-3 in favor!

 

[usfhawk]

Prairie Valley will be a bubble team. No one knows classifications at this point, so I would assume your source is just speculating. If I had to guess I would say PV will be 1A unless consolidating schools push them down. But that just a guess.

If they vote to consolidate prior to classifications coming out in mid Febuary, why wouldn't they be classified where their combined enrollment put them?

 

[warriors dad]

I was told the cutoff was in mid-December.Iwas also told the school already knows it will be in class A for next 2 years at athletic directors meeting earlier this month.

 

[PNation]

If PV and SEW combine, even after the districts come out, the state could switch the districts, it has happened before.

 

[usfhawk]

ADs have not been notified of any classification yet, so again more than likely just speculation at this point. If they indeed combine then they will more than likely be 2A.

PV 159 SEW 113 = 272

But, we will have to wait and see what happens.

 

[warriors dad]

 

[usfhawk]

So you are saying a team (PV/SEW) with a BEDS # of 270+ will be in class A?

Don't think the state would let that happen. But, you seem to know more about this situation than I do so I may be way off here.

 

[brewcrewman1]

Just did some calculations and IF these would happen to be the District Set Ups for the 2014 season the SHORTEST road trip for Alta/Aurelia would be to SEW at a distance of at least 80 miles and that is just one way. (I am assuming games are in Burnside). Also if you live in Aurelia add 7 miles to your one way trip. Any chance the Boys in Boone will reimburse for frequent bus miles.


This post was edited on 1/1 3:11 PM by brewcrewman1


This post was edited on 1/1 3:14 PM by brewcrewman1

This post was edited on 1/1 3:15 PM by brewcrewman1

 

[Rose bowl or bust]

Originally posted by usfhawk:
So you are saying a team (PV/SEW) with a BEDS # of 270+ will be in class A?

Don't think the state would let that happen. But, you seem to know more about this situation than I do so I may be way off here.

I think you're giving the state a little too much credit here.

Last year, they let Southwest Valley or something like that play 8-man with a beds number over 170. They didn't combine until the second year of the cycle, but they knew they were combining before districts were ever released before the last cycle. Essentially, the state said it would be too hard to place them in the proper class in separate years even though they knew it would make a huge difference (8-man to 1A). They let a school play against teams with 1/3 of the students.

 

[usfhawk]

The big difference would be that the state is aware of the consolidation prior to the 2 year classifications coming out. But, you never know what they are going to do in Boone.

 

[frmrhwk57]

Wasn't there a question when UNI High dropped football and was going to combine with Dike New Hartford. State stepped in and said they would move them to 2A. Dike then said no to the consolidation. Hence the kids that UNI High had played with Cedar Falls? I may be mistaken but I thought that was the case a few years ago.

 

[usfhawk]

That is correct.

 

[troutstamp1]

Not sure where you are getting your beds numbers unless you are using the 2011- 2012 numbers because the 2012 - 2013 numbers on the IAHSAA are quite different than your forcast as you have Alburnett in class A but thier beds are like 177 and many others whos beds are quite higher than you currently have. My guess is the cutoff is going to be around 153 depending on how many are jumping to 8 man or consolidating to become bigger.

 

[troutstamp1]

Bellevue is also in the 170s so they will not be in class A

 

[PNation]

Bellevue is actually with Andrew schools, not that it adds many kids, but the number is around 170-175

 

[paxregis]

Troutstamp & PNation, thanks for the info. Didn't realize Andrew still existed as a K-8 district. Added their 16 8th graders to Bellevue's total. That drops Central Decatur to A in my model

 

[usfhawk]

Any other schools considering consolidating?

Alburnett has a projected # of 164

 

[warriors dad]

I believe in the next 3-5 yrs there could be quite a few if not dozens! I live in fort dodge and kids go to P.V.and I hear a lot of talk of several districts that are very close.

 

[studman1]

According to todays Des Moines Register the IHSAA Board will vote on the new districts at their January 22 board meeting and schedules will be released in early February. Thats if the MVC in 4A chooses to go to districts by January 10th.

 

[usfhawk]

Districts will be released Jan 23

 

[paxregis]

I'll take another stab, now that I know which teams are playing 11-man/8-man:


1 126 Akron-Westfield
1 144 Lawton-Bronson
1 122 LeMars Gehlen
1 151 MVAO, Mapleton
1 152 South O'Brien
1 127 West Sioux
1 130 Westwood
1 132 Woodbury Central

2 120 AGWSR, Ackley
2 112 Algona Garrigan
2 158 Alta-Aurelia
2 158 Belmond-Klemme
2 127 Mason City Newman
2 152 North Union
2 113 Southeast Webster
2 142 West Hancock

3 119 East Buchanan
3 129 Easton Valley
3 129 Edgewood-Colesburg
3 155 Maquoketa Valley
3 147 North Linn
3 128 Postville
3 136 Starmont
3 135 Wapsie Valley

4 145 BCLUW, Conrad
4 109 Belle Plaine
4 127 Gladbrook-Reinbeck
4 102 GMG, Garwin
4 136 Grundy Center
4 159 Hudson
4 125 Nashua-Plainfield
4 142 North Butler

5 139 BGM, Brooklyn
5 145 Colfax-Mingo
5 119 Iowa Valley
5 136 Lisbon
5 120 Lynnville-Sully
5 118 Montezuma
5 132 North Tama
5 138 Pleasantville

6 146 Cardinal
6 148 Danville
6 113 Lone Tree
6 127 New London
6 143 North Mahaska
6 141 Van Buren County
6 105 WACO, Wayland
6 116 Winfield-Mount Union

7 124 Bedford
7 160 Central Decatur
7 149 Earlham
7 123 Martensdale-St Marys
7 154 Mount Ayr
7 158 Nodaway Valley
7 110 Southeast Warren
7 157 Van Meter

8 140 AHST, Avoca
8 138 Audubon
8 157 Council Bluffs St Albert
8 130 Griswold
8 135 Logan-Magnolia
8 139 Riverside
8 156 Tri-Center

 

[troutstamp1]

I think you are a little closer but just think your cutoff for class A is on the high side witch you have as 159 and i have a sneeking suspicion it is going to be around 153 or 54.

 

[PNation]

Maq Valley and St. Albert would be forces

 

[troutstamp1]

Also Hudsons enrollment is at 186