Football's equivalent of the Hot Stove League: projected new districts

[paxregis]

If, you look at my second set of projections, Williamsburg is in 3A. Someone pointed out they still share football with Iowa Menonnite.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[clonesisu10]

If Williamsburg was able to move back to 2A they would drop IMS as a sharing agreement. They always took them before because their own numbers were going to be 3A by themselves already, this time it looks like Williamsburg would be 2A by themselves.
They would have been listed on the iahsaa web site if they were sharing again.

Very good chance they will be 2A next time.

 

[PNation]

While this is probably true, if W'burg was getting another Chance Miller I am sure they would take IMS

 

[paxregis]

Checked the declaration list, no IMS with W'burg, so down to 2A they go. Here's another crack at 3A based on the latest info:


1 316 Atlantic
1 355 Carroll
1 381 Creston
1 554 Denison-Schleswig
1 483 Glenwood
1 347 Greene County
1 390 Harlan

2 335 Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley
2 492 LeMars
2 345 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
2 398 Sioux City Heelan
2 448 Spencer
2 318 Spirit Lake
2 464 Storm Lake

3 351 Algona
3 388 Ballard
3 368 Charles City
3 317 Crestwood
3 351 Humboldt
3 330 Nevada
3 417 Webster City

4 442 Decorah
4 427 Dubuque Wahlert
4 328 Independence
4 440 Maquoketa
4 467 Waverly-Shell Rock
4 387 West Delaware
4 578 Western Dubuque

5 343 Benton County
5 546 Cedar Rapids Xavier
5 495 Central Clinton
5 422 Clear Creek-Amana
5 474 Marion
5 322 Solon
5 370 Vinton-Shellsburg

6 367 Davenport Assumption
6 381 Fairfield
6 476 Fort Madison
6 451 Keokuk
6 507 Mount Pleasant
6 539 Oskaloosa
6 383 Washington

7 469 Carlisle
7 323 Chariton
7 383 Grinnell
7 400 Knoxville
7 662 Newton
7 598 Norwalk
7 529 Pella

8 358 ADM, Adel
8 318 Bondurant-Farrar
8 542 Boone
8 533 Dallas Center-Grimes
8 440 Perry
8 350 Saydel
8 415 Winterset

 

[KidSilverhair]

Wow, pax. You working late, or up early?

 

[paxregis]

Neither, Monday is my only full day away from work and I couldn't sleep because I had slept in until 1 pm yesterday.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[FarmFam]

That would be a brutal travel schedule for Oskaloosa and Chariton, Pax.

 

[PNation]

That's a pretty easy travel schedule for Chariton, considering where they are located

I don't see Oskalooa and Assumption being put in the same district, honestly it makes more sense to send CCA south with those SE teams, and send Assumption to CR

 

[screwloose]

I agree. In the one I did above, I sent Oskaloosa west for them in D7 and CCA south with Assumption in D6. It would make more sense for Assumption to be in with CR Xavier, but I don't think they'll pair them together. Also, there's no way you could separate Crestwood and Decorah, they're the two northeastern-most schools in the state.
I think what pax is doing here is making a best case travel scenario from CR Xavier's perspective and working out. But Crestwood and Ballard in the same district is not plausible. That D3 would be a travel nightmare. It would be bad enough for someone like Charles City to go to Boone, Nevada or Ballard, but for Crestwood would be inhumane.

 

[IOU1]

Speaking of travel...Waverly went to Algona, Humboldt, Webster City, and Iowa Falls as a part of their district last year. With the three parochials entering into 3A on the east side of the state, does anybody on here envision a scenario where Wavery does NOT get sent west again later this month? Previous districts sent the Go-Hawks east with the likes of Decorah, Crestwood, Charles City, etc....essentially their normal conference plus or minus a couple schools.

 

[screwloose]

If you'd seen my set-up, I sent Waverly east.

District 4...
Crestwood, Decorah, Dubuque Wahlert, Independence, Waverly-Shell Rock, West Delaware, Western Dubuque

 

[IOU1]

I did see that. Top to bottom (other than Indee) that looks like a rugged District slate.

 

[screwloose]

Probably would be, but geographically, what real choice do they have?

 

[PNation]

Here is how I would do it

BHRV
LeMars
SBL
Heelan
Spencer
Spirit Lake
Storm Lake

Algona
Humboldt
Webster City
Nevada
Boone
Ballard
Greene County

Decorah
Crestwood
Charles City
WSR
Indee
Vinton
West Delaware

West Dubuque
Wahlert
Xavier
Benton
Marion
Central Dewitt
Maquoketa

Solon
CCA
Assumption
Keokuk
Washington
Mt Pleasant
Fort Madison

Fairfield
Pella
Knoxville
Chariton
Grinnell
Newton
Oskaloosa

Perry
Norwalk
DCG
Saydel
ADM
Carlisle
BF

Carroll
WInterset
Harlan
Glenwood
Atlantic
Creston
Denison

 

[randalel]

Pax - do you really think Clear Lake is moving down to 2A ? Many still think they will be in 3A - thoughts ?

 

[PNation]

They've always been a small 3A school, and have a few small classes coming through paired with growing suburb schools means that they probably are.

 

[camren17]

Heard that Atlantic is 1 student from being 2A

 

[KidSilverhair]

Well, we're not going to know that until the official enrollment numbers come out soon. With 46 teams in 4A, Class 3A is going to be the 56 schools between number 47 on the enrollment list and number 102, with number 103 being the largest 2A school (if I did my math right). The 2012-13 numbers had that split between Center Point-Urbana at 102 (307 BEDS) and Centerville at 103 (306 BEDS). Atlantic was at 321 BEDS, so a drop of 15 students or so would get them near that cutoff.

But again, it depends on what those official BEDS numbers are for everybody once those come out. There were 19 schools clustered between 329 and 293 on the BEDS list for 2012-13, so there's a lot of possibilities for who ends up where.

 

[paxregis]

Originally posted by randalel:
Pax - do you really think Clear Lake is moving down to 2A ? Many still think they will be in 3A - thoughts ?

My sources tell me it's almost a lock

 

[paxregis]

After plotting all the teams on a mapping program, I've made some changes to my model districts


1 316 Atlantic
1 355 Carroll
1 381 Creston
1 554 Denison-Schleswig
1 483 Glenwood
1 390 Harlan
1 415 Winterset

2 335 Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley
2 492 LeMars
2 345 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
2 398 Sioux City Heelan
2 448 Spencer
2 318 Spirit Lake
2 464 Storm Lake

3 351 Algona
3 388 Ballard
3 542 Boone
3 347 Greene County
3 351 Humboldt
3 330 Nevada
3 417 Webster City

4 368 Charles City
4 317 Crestwood
4 442 Decorah
4 427 Dubuque Wahlert
4 467 Waverly-Shell Rock
4 387 West Delaware
4 578 Western Dubuque

5 546 Cedar Rapids Xavier
5 495 Central Clinton
5 422 Clear Creek-Amana
5 328 Independence
5 440 Maquoketa
5 474 Marion
5 322 Solon

6 367 Davenport Assumption
6 381 Fairfield
6 476 Fort Madison
6 451 Keokuk
6 507 Mount Pleasant
6 539 Oskaloosa
6 383 Washington

7 343 Benton County
7 323 Chariton
7 383 Grinnell
7 400 Knoxville
7 662 Newton
7 529 Pella
7 370 Vinton-Shellsburg

8 358 ADM, Adel
8 318 Bondurant-Farrar
8 469 Carlisle
8 533 Dallas Center-Grimes
8 598 Norwalk
8 440 Perry
8 350 Saydel

 

[leesboy]

Word on the street is that Spirit Lake will stay 2A

 

[screwloose]

I plotted your map and there's a few things that really stick out.

== Your District 2 is a virtual certainty. Nothing could be changed there and make it better.

== Your District 4 makes the most sense. Even more than the mock I did. It works a lot better for Charles City, who would be in a very bad travel scenario if they were pushed into District 3.

== Travel-wise, I think it would make more sense to move three teams in your Districts 1, 3 and 8. Those would be Winterset from D1 to D8, Greene County from D3 to D1, and Perry from D8 to D3 - completing the circle.

== Don't understand the reasoning of Vinton-Shellsburg and Benton Community in your District 7, not with Chariton in that mix. Those two are almost literal stones throws from Cedar Rapids/Marion and Independence. The trips to DeWitt and Maquoketa would be way more manageable than to Chariton. V-S and Benton belong in D5.

== This mean Solon and CCA would have to move out of your District 5 into D6. I'm sure those schools would prefer to be in the Linn/Johnson County mix, but one or the other almost has to go south and with both lying in the 218 and 61 corridors, travel wouldn't be as horrific as one may think...even to Keokuk.

== This would mean that Oskaloosa and Fairfield moves to D7. I would agree that Fairfield is a more natural fit with those southeast corner schools, but being on Hwy 34 and the quick connect to the 63/146/163 routes, they wouldn't be too far out of place.

 

[paxregis]

Originally posted by leesboy:
Word on the street is that Spirit Lake will stay 2A

They are definitely on the bubble in my model. The cutoff was 316 & I have them at 318. Predicting the bottom five/top five teams between classes is a crap shoot.

 

[radioactive927]

It looks like you have done your homework, paxregis. This could be pretty close to the final. The IHSAA may bow, a little, to relative strength of traditional powers but at the end of the day its all about geography. It doesn't help for someone to say "I think team A should be in District X" without recognizing how such a move impacts all other districts. You have succeeded where others failed.
To follow up on an earlier post: Several years ago Clear Lake was tied with Carroll Kuemper for the 64th spot in 3A and a coin flip put Clear Lake in 3A, Kuemper in 2A. Since then Clear Lake's enrollment spiked. but it's down again, and Clear Lake is back on the bubble. Think of this: just a couple years ago the smallest 3A was the 112th (48 + 64) in over-all combined/shared enrollment, now it's going to be 102nd (46 + 56) with the lowest enrollment going from about 296 to about 316.
Since you have come as close to predicting the IHSAA as can be done - would you like to predict the "cross over game matchups"?

 

[screwloose]

Originally posted by radioactive927:
It looks like you have done your homework, paxregis. This could be pretty close to the final. The IHSAA may bow, a little, to relative strength of traditional powers but at the end of the day its all about geography. It doesn't help for someone to say "I think team A should be in District X" without recognizing how such a move impacts all other districts. You have succeeded where others failed.

I certainly hope you aren't referring to me. With your four posts, I'm guessing you're relatively new around here. And if you haven't seen my work, I've done more configuring, sorting, number crunching and redistricting plans than anybody on this site...including paxregis. And I'm sure he would tell you the same thing. If anybody understands the ramifications of moving a team from one district to another and the corresponding impacts on the others, it is me.

In no way am I ever going to destroy the work that he did as far as putting together the enrollment numbers and things of that sort. Nor would I completely disregard the time, effort and work he did in putting together the district assignments he did. I just happen to see those differently. I explained the rationale.

So hopefully, you weren't calling what I stated as a failure. If you really think it was, I suggest plotting out both of our plans...neither are going to be far from the truth.

 

[paxregis]

Screw, I don't think he was denigrating your body of work. He was trying to thank me for my work and chose a poor turn of phrase.

You and I are among the few that are brave enough to post our projections for all to critique.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[screwloose]

Perhaps you're right. And I agree on your comment about our bravery.

 

[radioactive927]

No screwloose. I meant some others don't seem to get it. You do. Keep up the good work - it's fun to speculate.

 

[Ford26]

I would like to offer a huge "thank you" to both Screw & Pax. It is junkies like you guys that make this site fun, interesting, and informative. I suspect that you're involved because you enjoy it, and gain benefit from your ciphering. Even still, such investment takes time and you should know that there are many who appreciate your efforts.

 

[screwloose]

Pleasure is mine. I do these things for informative purposes and because I'm really freakin' bored.

 

[screwloose]

I'll take a crack at the cross-over opponents.

District 1...
Atlantic vs. Sioux City Heelan
Carroll vs. Spirit Lake
Creston vs. Winterset
Denison-Schleswig vs. Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley
Glenwood vs. Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Greene County vs. Boone
Harlan vs. Adel-Desoto-Minburn

District 2...
Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley vs. Denison-Schlewig
LeMars vs. Humboldt
Sergeant Bluff-Luton vs. Glenwood
Sioux City Heelan vs. Atlantic
Spencer vs. Algona
Spirit Lake vs. Carroll
Storm Lake vs. Webster City

District 3...
Algona vs. Spencer
Ballard vs. Saydel
Boone vs. Greene County
Humboldt vs. LeMars
Nevada vs. Bondurant-Farrar
Perry vs. Dallas Center-Grimes
Webster City vs. Storm Lake

District 4...
Charles City vs. Vinton-Shellsburg
Crestwood vs. Independence
Decorah vs. Maquoketa
Dubuque Wahlert vs. Davenport Assumption
Waverly-Shell Rock vs. Benton Community
West Delaware vs. Marion
Western Dubuque vs. Central Clinton

District 5...
Benton Community vs. Waverly-Shell Rock
Cedar Rapids Xavier vs. Solon
Central Clinton vs. Western Dubuque
Independence vs. Crestwood
Marion vs. West Delaware
Maquoketa vs. Decorah
Vinton-Shellsburg vs. Charles City

District 6...
Clear Creek-Amana vs. Newton
Davenport Assumption vs. Dubuque Wahlert
Fort Madison vs. Oskaloosa
Keokuk vs. Fairfield
Mount Pleasant vs. Pella
Solon vs. Cedar Rapids Xavier
Washington vs. Grinnell

District 7...
Chariton vs. Norwalk
Fairfield vs. Keokuk
Grinnell vs. Washington
Knoxville vs. Carlisle
Newton vs. Clear Creek-Amana
Oskaloosa vs. Fort Madison
Pella vs. Mount Pleasant

District 8...
Adel-Desoto-Minburn vs. Harlan
Bondurant-Farrar vs. Nevada
Carlisle vs. Knoxville
Dallas Center-Grimes vs. Perry
Norwalk vs. Chariton
Saydel vs. Ballard
Winterset vs. Creston

 

[PNation]

Heelan's will be the Sioux City school they don't play in the 1st two games, and while 3A pretty much stayed by themselves the last cycle I don't see any reason that has to happen this cycle.

 

[radioactive927]

Screw: ou really do have a lot of time on your hands, don't you! Thanks for the posts - the IHSAA could use your help. We are 'junkies' aren't we?

 

[Y2KG21]

Take Sp Lake out of 3A. KUOO said today they will stay in 2A.

 

[paxregis]

Originally posted by Y2KG21:
Take Sp Lake out of 3A. KUOO said today they will stay in 2A.

I haven't posted an update since I found that out. Basically, Gilbert will take their place in 3A. I would move Denison-Schleswig to D2, Greene County to D1 and insert Gilbert in D3.

 

[paxregis]

1 Atlantic
1 Carroll
1 Creston
1 Glenwood
1 Greene County
1 Harlan
1 Winterset

2 Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley
2 Denison-Schleswig
2 LeMars
2 Sergeant Bluff-Luton
2 Sioux City Heelan
2 Spencer
2 Storm Lake

3 Algona
3 Ballard
3 Boone
3 Gilbert
3 Humboldt
3 Nevada
3 Webster City

4 Charles City
4 Crestwood
4 Decorah
4 Dubuque Wahlert
4 Waverly-Shell Rock
4 West Delaware
4 Western Dubuque

5 Benton County
5 Cedar Rapids Xavier
5 Independence
5 Maquoketa
5 Marion
5 Solon
5 Vinton-Shellsburg

6 Central Clinton
6 Clear Creek-Amana
6 Davenport Assumption
6 Fort Madison
6 Keokuk
6 Mount Pleasant
6 Washington

7 Chariton
7 Fairfield
7 Grinnell
7 Knoxville
7 Newton
7 Oskaloosa
7 Pella

8 ADM, Adel
8 Bondurant-Farrar
8 Carlisle
8 Dallas Center-Grimes
8 Norwalk
8 Perry
8 Saydel