Final! Playoff Guesser v. 3.0!

[KidSilverhair]

Bugs guaranteed, but I will have some downloadable content coming to patch my predictions. Around midnight next Friday. Patch coming from Boone.

Not a lot of changes from what I was looking at last week, just a little around the edges. Most of the playoff spots are fairly well set now - you can check my other thread to see what's still on the line this week.

Based on what I figure will happen on the field Friday - Here goes nothing!

ONES v FOURS

Spencer at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (D-1 rematch)
Creston at Webster City (122 miles)
Dubuque Wahlert at West Delaware (44 miles)
Waverly-Shell Rock at Xavier (75 miles)
Benton at Davenport Assumption (102 miles)
Humboldt at Gilbert (71 miles)
Fairfield at Pella (68 miles)
Chariton at Dallas Center-Grimes (72 miles)
​

TWOS v THREES

BHRV at Heelan (D-1 rematch)
Glenwood at Carroll (115 miles)
Decorah at Independence (D-3 rematch)
Clear Creek-Amana at Maquoketa (78 miles)
Solon at Washington (nondistrict rematch - 52 miles)
Algona at Ballard (115 miles)
Bondurant-Farrar at Norwalk (25 miles)
Carlisle at Harlan (114 miles)
​

 

[fmclonefan]

Nicely done Kid!

 

[KidSilverhair]

I'm in process of adding to my "What's At Stake" thread with an in-depth look at exactly how all the ties and point tiebreakers shake out - yes I know I'm sick somebody stop me before I make predictions again - but here's exactly who can't finish anywhere else but where they placed, regardless of Friday's outcomes.

Guaranteed district winners: Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Webster City, West Delaware, Xavier, Gilbert, Pella. D-5 and D-8 are the only districts with questions at the top.

Guaranteed second place: Heelan, Carroll, Independence, Maquoketa, Ballard, Norwalk. Still to be decided are D-5 and D-8.

Guaranteed third place: BHRV, Decorah, Bondurant-Farrar.

Guaranteed fourth place: Spencer, Waverly-Shell Rock, Benton, Creston.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Guaranteed third place: BHRV, Decorah, Bondurant-Farrar.

Guaranteed fourth place: Spencer, Waverly-Shell Rock, Benton, Creston.

Jumped the gun a little here. Spencer could still take 3rd in D-1 over BHRV, if Spencer beats Sergeant Bluff-Luton and Denison-Schleswig beats BHRV. Kind of unlikely, but that makes Spencer 4-2 ahead of BHRV at 3-3.

 

[BFJUSTICEBIGBLUE]

Now We know Gilbert gets the district champion even if they lose but if they so how lose to benton comunity and ballard losed to grinnell you got a 3 way tie for second place. here the standing now


Gilbert 5 0 0 7 1 0 9.40
Ballard 4 1 0 5 3 0 9.20
Bondurant-Farrar 4 2 0 5 3 0 5.17
Benton Community 3 2 0 5 3 0 0.00
Grinnell 2 3 0 4 4 0 -1.40


benton at Gilbert
Grinnell at Ballard
Bondurant at Winterset Non-District

 

[KidSilverhair]

I go deep into the ins-and-outs of what might happen in the "What's At Stake In Week 9" thread. In this specific instance - a three-way tie between Ballard, Bondurant-Farrar and Benton - Ballard gets second because they have beaten both the other two. Bondurant-Farrar then takes third, since they have beaten Benton.

 

[tdemoss]

Weeks 8 & 9 next year are going to be filled with meaningless games again as the state moves back to just two qualifiers per district. Been awhile since we've had that.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Good point. In Class 3A, the top two teams are already set in 6 of the 8 districts, and District 5 will be settled tonight with Washington-Assumption. D-8 is the only one yet to figure out their top three.

Although you've still got the two wild card spots in play next year. I'll be interested to see what the process is going to be to determine those qualifiers.

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

Good point. In Class 3A, the top two teams are already set in 6 of the 8 districts, and District 5 will be settled tonight with Washington-Assumption. D-8 is the only one yet to figure out their top three.

Although you've still got the two wild card spots in play next year. I'll be interested to see what the process is going to be to determine those qualifiers.

If all was fair, it'd have something to do with overall record and point differential, but I have a bad feeling it is going to be just a hand-picked type of thing where the name of the school matters.

 

[fmclonefan]

I would think the wild card spots would be based on the district record first with a preference given to those teams that are tied for a playoff spot and lose out. Not sure how they will deal with it if teams are tied with the same district record (from different districts). May go to overall record, that sort of thing. Hopefully they take the subjectivity out of it, but who knows how they will do it.

 

[captain_sparrow]

This whole "wild card' thing they're going to next year is just a horrible idea. All it's going to do is set the Association up for a ton of backlash. It would make much more sense, in my mind, to have the top 3 teams from 8 districts qualify, with the district champion getting a first round bye and 2s vs. 3s in the first round.

 

[paxregis]

You can't have 24 teams and play one game a week in the playoffs, the rational behind returning to 16 team fields.

 

[Hawksince73]

...but I have a bad feeling it is going to be just a hand-picked type of thing where the name of the school matters.

Meaning: which school will put the most a*ses in seats -->> meaning: which school will make Boone the most money. Nailed it.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I would think the wild card spots would be based on the district record first with a preference given to those teams that are tied for a playoff spot and lose out. Not sure how they will deal with it if teams are tied with the same district record (from different districts). May go to overall record, that sort of thing. Hopefully they take the subjectivity out of it, but who knows how they will do it.

My understanding is the state is adamant in only using district games for playoff qualifying. They won't use overall record or anything from any non-district games in figuring that out. Just what I've heard, at least. That really makes it a challenge to compare teams from different districts.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Bugs guaranteed, but I will have some downloadable content coming to patch my predictions. Around midnight next Friday. Patch coming from Boone.

Not a lot of changes from what I was looking at last week, just a little around the edges. Most of the playoff spots are fairly well set now - you can check my other thread to see what's still on the line this week.

Based on what I figure will happen on the field Friday - Here goes nothing!

ONES v FOURS

Spencer at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (D-1 rematch)
Creston at Webster City (122 miles)
Dubuque Wahlert at West Delaware (44 miles)
Waverly-Shell Rock at Xavier (75 miles)
Benton at Davenport Assumption (102 miles)
Humboldt at Gilbert (71 miles)
Fairfield at Pella (68 miles)
Chariton at Dallas Center-Grimes (72 miles)
​

TWOS v THREES

BHRV at Heelan (D-1 rematch)
Glenwood at Carroll (115 miles)
Decorah at Independence (D-3 rematch)
Clear Creek-Amana at Maquoketa (78 miles)
Solon at Washington (nondistrict rematch - 52 miles)
Algona at Ballard (115 miles)
Bondurant-Farrar at Norwalk (25 miles)
Carlisle at Harlan (114 miles)
​

I've had second thoughts, a little, about some of these predictions. Rather than say, "I knew they'd do that!" after the fact with no proof, figured I'd put it on the Internet, where everything has to be the truth (bonjour!).

As somebody else said in an earlier prediction thread, I think Waverly-Shell Rock ends up going to Webster City. Creston would go to Pella, then. The state goes with the Wahlert-Assumption non-district rematch, Benton goes to West Delaware, and Fairfield is at Xavier. I think Xavier probably ends up playing the loser of Fairfield-Clear Creek Amana in any case. If Washington beats Assumption tonight, Benton goes to Washington and the Solon-Wahlert loser to West Delaware with the winner at Assumption.

If Fairfield does beat CCA, it starts to play some havoc with the 2-3 games, and I haven't gone very far down that rabbit hole.

Anyway, my final, final predictions (assuming wins by Assumption, Solon, CCA, Humboldt, Carlisle and Dallas Center-Grimes):

4v1
Spencer at SBL
Waverly Shell Rock at Webster City
Benton at West Delaware
Fairfield at Xavier
Wahlert at Assumption
Humboldt at Gilbert
Creston at Pella
Chariton at Dallas Center-Grimes

3v2
BHRV at Heelan
Glenwood at Carroll
Decorah at Independence
Clear Creek Amana at Maquoketa
Solon at Washington
Algona at Ballard
Bondurant Farrar at Norwalk
Carlisle at Harlan

(If Washington wins tonight, it's Wahlert at West Delaware and Benton at Washington in the 4v1, and Solon at Assumption in the 3v2)​

 

[captain_sparrow]

You can't have 24 teams and play one game a week in the playoffs, the rational behind returning to 16 team fields.

Actually, you can. Almost all of the coaches and ADs I have talked to have said they didn't even know the 16-team model the state selected to go with was an option. They were all under the assumption based on the memo the state had sent them that the new playoff format would most likely be 24 teams, one playoff game per week and everyone starts the season in week zero.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Actually, you can. Almost all of the coaches and ADs I have talked to have said they didn't even know the 16-team model the state selected to go with was an option. They were all under the assumption based on the memo the state had sent them that the new playoff format would most likely be 24 teams, one playoff game per week and everyone starts the season in week zero.

The issue is how 24 teams works with a bracket system. Without byes (which the state seems to want to avoid like the plague), 24 doesn't work. After the first round you have 12, after the second 6, then after the third round you end up with 3. Oops.

Maybe they were led to believe there would be byes - top 8 get the first round off, the other 16 play and those 8 winners take on the fully rested bye teams - but the state has been pretty clear in the past saying they think that gives the bye teams an unfair advantage.

But you can't have 24 teams, play every week, and end up with two teams left. You end up with three.

 

[paxregis]

Do we really want the season to be two weeks in before school starts? I'm still amazed that the IHSAA made a decision that put player safety and school's regular season gates ahead of their own postseason income.

 

[captain_sparrow]

The issue is how 24 teams works with a bracket system. Without byes (which the state seems to want to avoid like the plague), 24 doesn't work. After the first round you have 12, after the second 6, then after the third round you end up with 3. Oops.

Maybe they were led to believe there would be byes - top 8 get the first round off, the other 16 play and those 8 winners take on the fully rested bye teams - but the state has been pretty clear in the past saying they think that gives the bye teams an unfair advantage.

But you can't have 24 teams, play every week, and end up with two teams left. You end up with three.

I'm of the opinion that district champions should be rewarded for being district champions. Give them a bye and go to 24 teams. That's my personal opinion.

 

[paxregis]

They are rewarded, by getting to host for at least the first two rounds, in the current format.

 

[fmclonefan]

In many other sports the district champ (or top seed) will get a bye. Works for the NFL also. It would be a significant advantage for obvious reasons. With 16 teams left at that point, the district champ would only be guaranteed one home game as they may lose a tie breaker to another district champ in the quarterfinals. But, again, who knows what the state will do.

 

[IOU1]

The Wild Card teams aren't going to be random. That is the most ignorant thing I have read on this board in quite some time...and that is saying a LOT!! It will almost certainly be a combination of possible head to head, district record, points, alphabet. What it does is tries to keep a team in a 3-way tie for a district title from being left at home. W Dubuque in 2014, WSR&DCG in 2010, etc. Will there be a team that probably gets left out due to a tie-breaker system? YES...there always is, but to think that they will just pick team so and so because of their name is ludicrous.