Here's The 3A Playoff Scenarios

KidSilverhair

Varsity
Aug 31, 2008
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www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
As (kinda) promised, it's the 3A Playoff Scenario Guesser with two games to play!

As always, I make no guarantees as to the accuracy of my figuring, as I can always make mistakes or miss something. There are still plenty of tie scenarios in play - here's the state's method of breaking ties in 3A/4A:
  • A two-way tie for district champion, or for second place, will be determined by head-to-head results.
  • If there's a tie involving three or more teams for district champion, and one team defeated all of the others, that team is district champion and you go back to head-to-head to determine the second-place team.
  • If the teams in the tie for the district title all defeated each other, RPI is used to select the champion, then head-to-head is used to determine the second-place team.
  • In cases where head-to-head can't single out one champion or second-place team, RPI is used.
Since RPI can still change more than we might expect over the next two weeks, I make no guesses involving that, but you are welcome to make your own inferences.

3A-1
BISHOP HEELAN is in the playoffs with two wins, and can win the district with two wins plus a Sioux Center loss, or a win over Sergeant Bluff-Luton plus two Sioux Center losses. They're in at least a tie for a playoff spot with a win over Sergeant Bluff-Luton plus an MOC-Floyd Valley loss. They still get second place with one win, but that requires two SBL wins, two Sioux Center losses, and losses by both Carroll and MOC-Floyd Valley. Tie possibilities exist, but Heelan would be eliminated with two losses.​
SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON is in with two wins, and wins the district with two wins plus an MOC-Floyd Valley loss. A win over Heelan plus a Heelan win over BHRV means a tie at worst - in fact, the only way a win over Heelan doesn't mean at least a tie involves two losses by Sioux Center or two wins by Sioux Center plus an MOC-Floyd Valley win. Losing to Heelan is very damaging; SBL can still get second with a win plus two MOC-Floyd Valley losses, but otherwise there's only a few tie possibilities.​
SIOUX CENTER is in with two wins, and wins the district with two wins plus a Sergeant Bluff-Luton loss. They finish second with a win, two MOC-Floyd Valley wins, and two SBL losses. A few tie scenarios exist, but almost all of them require a win over MOC-Floyd Valley in Week 9.​
MOC-FLOYD VALLEY is in with two wins, and takes the district with two wins plus a Heelan loss. One win gets them into a least a tie situation in most cases.​
There's one scenario for CARROLL to win the district: two wins, plus two losses by both Heelan and MOC-Floyd Valley. They can finish second with two wins plus two losses by both Heelan and Sioux Center, or two wins plus two Heelan wins and two MOC-Floyd Valley losses. Even two wins won't get them into a tie if Sioux Center loses twice.​
BOYDEN-HULL/ROCK VALLEY has been eliminated.​
3A-2
This week's Humboldt-Nevada game probably determines the champion.​
HUMBOLDT wins the district with a victory Friday. They'll finish second with a loss plus a win over Algona, unless North Polk wins twice (that creates a tie). They can still get a playoff spot with two losses plus losses by both Algona and North Polk - there are some ties with two Algona wins and a North Polk loss.​
NEVADA is in the playoffs with a win (although there is one tie scenario). A win over Humboldt plus a North Polk loss wins the district. The tie scenario happens with a Nevada win over Humboldt plus two North Polk wins plus a Humboldt win over Algona.​
NORTH POLK can win the district with two wins plus two Humboldt losses; they're in the playoffs for sure with two wins (except for that tie scenario above). A win over Nevada almost guarantees a playoff spot - they could only miss out if Humboldt loses twice plus an Algona loss, or if Nevada beats Humboldt and Humboldt beats Algona.​
ALGONA needs two wins plus a Nevada win Friday to have a chance; they are in with two wins plus two Nevada wins.​
BALLARD and GILBERT have been eliminated.​
3A-3
Another huge game Friday with West Delaware vs. Independence.​
WEST DELAWARE wins the district by defeating Independence. They are in the playoffs with two Independence wins. A loss to Independence plus a CPU loss still gets them in; they can only miss even a tie opportunity with two losses plus two CPU wins.​
Independence wins the district with two wins, and are in the playoffs with a win plus a CPU loss (two CPU wins mean a tie). If Hampton-Dumont-CAL wins twice, Indee still gets in a tie with two losses.​
CENTER POINT-URBANA can win the district with two wins plus two West Delaware losses. They are in the playoffs with a win plus two Independence losses (unless Hampton-Dumont wins twice, that's a tie). They can also reach a tie with two wins plus an Independence win Friday.​
HAMPTON-DUMONT-CAL can get into a tie with two wins plus two Independence losses, but RPI probably won't be helpful.​
CHARLES CITY and SOUTH TAMA have been eliminated.​
3A-4
The Week 9 Central DeWitt-Benton contest looks like essentially a playoff elimination game.​
MOUNT VERNON is in with a win, and wins the district by defeating Central DeWitt Friday. They can also win the district with a loss Friday if Benton defeats Central DeWitt in Week 9. Even with two losses the Mustangs are in with losses by both Benton and Vinton-Shellsburg, and there are tie possibilities - the only way they can miss the playoffs totally is two wins by both Central DeWitt and Vinton-Shellsburg, or one weird scenario that involves two wins by Benton plus Assumption defeating Vinton-Shellsburg while losing to Maquoketa.​
CENTRAL DeWITT wins the district with two wins. They're almost certainly in if they defeat Benton Week 9; a loss to Benton almost certainly eliminates them unless Mount Vernon loses twice.​
BENTON wins the district with two wins plus two Mount Vernon losses. They're pretty much guaranteed in the playoffs with a win over Central DeWitt Week 9, unless Mount Vernon loses twice.​
DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION needs two wins and some help; two wins plus two Benton losses and a Central DeWitt loss gets them in the playoffs, but otherwise it's only tie situations.​
VINTON-SHELLSBURG has a shot with two wins, earning second place if Central DeWitt wins twice, and a few tie possibilities if Mount Vernon loses twice.​
MAQUOKETA has been eliminated.​
3A-5
Solon-Grinnell Friday is a big one.​
SOLON wins the district with a win over Grinnell. They are in the playoffs unless Fairfield wins twice (two Fairfield wins plus two Solon losses eliminates Solon; two Fairfield wins plus a win by both Solon and Grinnell creates a tie).​
GRINNELL wins the district by defeating Solon (unless Fairfield wins twice; that plus a Solon win Week 9 makes a tie, a Solon loss gives Grinnell second place). Grinnell is guaranteed in the playoffs with a win over Fairfield Week 9.​
FAIRFIELD wins the district with two wins plus two Solon losses. Two wins guarantee them a playoff spot unless Grinnell defeats Solon (that's the three-way tie). Two Grinnell losses also get Fairfield into the playoffs (unless Washington wins twice to force a tie).​
WASHINGTON can get in a tie with two wins plus two Grinnell losses, but I don't think RPI is going to get them in.​
WEST BURLINGTON/NOTRE DAME and KEOKUK have been eliminated.​
3A-6
A HARLAN win over Creston gives them the district title. They also can take the championship with a win over Knoxville plus a Creston loss to Atlantic. The only complication for Harlan with one win is if Atlantic wins twice, which creates a tie that Harlan still almost certainly wins. Harlan still is assured a playoff spot with two losses if Creston wins twice and ADM defeats Knoxville; there are some other two-loss tie scenarios that all require a Creston loss.​

CRESTON wins the district with two wins plus an ADM loss; two wins plus two ADM wins gives Creston at worst a tie situation. They can also win the district with a win over Harlan plus two wins by Saydel and Knoxville (talk about your unusual situations). They almost certainly get in with a win plus two ADM losses and an Atlantic loss (although there are some tie scenarios should Harlan lose twice).​

ADM can win the district with two wins plus two Harlan losses. They are guaranteed a playoff spot with two wins plus a Creston loss (two Creston wins plus a Harlan win create a tie). They are also in with a win plus a Creston loss (unless Knoxville wins twice, which causes complications, or Harlan loses twice, which creates ties).​

KNOXVILLE can get in the playoffs with two wins plus losses by either ADM or Atlantic, plus either two wins or two losses by Creston. There are a few tie situations, too.​

ATLANTIC has a shot – two wins plus two ADM losses get them in the playoffs. Two wins plus either two wins by Knoxville or two losses by Harlan creates a tie.​

There is a situation where Harlan can win the district with a five-way tie for second: Harlan and Saydel win out, Creston and ADM lose out. That’s SAYDEL’s only chance at a tie, but they aren’t going to win a five-way tie on RPI.​
 

ronsss

Varsity
Nov 8, 2003
2,995
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thks KidSilverhair, u put some effort into this symnopsis. some really average teams , or nearly bad teams, has chances for the playoffs...i was surprised heelan has chance to win the district with certain play of others.....shocking
 
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