Class A

[Zowwy21]

So they use strength of sched, off and def avg, so if you don't use either of them are they only basing their ranking on strength of sched? The eyeball test tells me more than any computer and nowadays you can watch dam near any team you want on livestream. Even these poll rankings are a joke because the only thing they look at is record and do no research at all like who they played.

I will agree with you on the last point.

As far as how the rankings are done. They look at every individual game, and what the spread was and then optimize the score differences across all current and previous games which essentially generates a rank. So in essence if there are two common opponents, teams that beat the common opponents by more will result in a higher relative rank. Do that for every game throughout the entire season and it gets pretty accurate. Anomalies should work themselves out. At least this method is using multiple variables to determine relative strength rather than just w/l.

There is no way you can look at a team and all the individual matchups within a game to know what the net effect of each team is - too many variables.

Agree score is not necessarily 100% foolproof, but it is better than just looking at record, regardless of opponent. And I agree that individual matchups matter, but that only works in a head-to-head comparison, you can't develop a complete ranking system that way.

 

[PNation]

I look at the guys they have doing these rankings for all of the classes and I think they did a nice job of selecting individuals who will do a good job and ones who tend to be very well informed.

 

[troutstamp1]

I look at the guys they have doing these rankings for all of the classes and I think they did a nice job of selecting individuals who will do a good job and ones who tend to be very well informed.

My issue is they look to much as the teams record and say shit these guys are 5-0 they need to be in the top ten but dont look to see who they played and why they are 5-0 or 4-1. I think they got allot of teams right but consider the following on strength of sched.

Lisbon #7 5-0 opponents record 4-21
Nashua # 9 4-1 opponents record 9-16 ** 5 of those 9 wins are from Saint Ansger
Lake Mills # 10 5-0 opponents record 7-18

Obviously these will shake out as Lake Mills still has to play SA and WH and Nashua still has to play Wapsie. Lisbon on the other hand finishes with teams that don't have a winning record so they will run the table. And realistically if they are going to use these as part of the pairings then they shouldn't consider non district games as part of the rankings as some teams played tougher competition than others

 

[PNation]

These are only supposed to be used for pairings for the semifinals, now I am not sure why they wouldn't look at them a little bit along with geography for 2nd round and quarterfinal pairings, but they are just supposed to be for the semis, which at that point all four teams are going to be good.

 

[troutstamp1]

These are only supposed to be used for pairings for the semifinals, now I am not sure why they wouldn't look at them a little bit along with geography for 2nd round and quarterfinal pairings, but they are just supposed to be for the semis, which at that point all four teams are going to be good.

from the IHSAA site

The committee rankings for 2A, 1A, A, and 8P will feature a top 10 consensus-built list as compiled by a six-person group: Two former head coaches and one media member, each representing different state regions, and three IHSAA staff members.

The IHSAA will use the rankings as a primary tool for postseason assignments, while maintaining school and geographic considerations. Previously used postseason hosting and district finish criteria are unchanged for 2023.

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

My issue is they look to much as the teams record and say shit these guys are 5-0 they need to be in the top ten but dont look to see who they played and why they are 5-0 or 4-1. I think they got allot of teams right but consider the following on strength of sched.

Lisbon #7 5-0 opponents record 4-21
Nashua # 9 4-1 opponents record 9-16 ** 5 of those 9 wins are from Saint Ansger
Lake Mills # 10 5-0 opponents record 7-18

Obviously these will shake out as Lake Mills still has to play SA and WH and Nashua still has to play Wapsie. Lisbon on the other hand finishes with teams that don't have a winning record so they will run the table. And realistically if they are going to use these as part of the pairings then they shouldn't consider non district games as part of the rankings as some teams played tougher competition than others

6-19 is lisbons 5 games, not sure where your numbers came from. Also 100 percent disagree that non district games shouldn’t be included with rankings. Win them games that are against tougher competition and it will undoubtedly make you a top 3 team. St Ansgar would not be ranked 1 without that win to Osage to start the year.

 

[troutstamp1]

6-19 is lisbons 5 games, not sure where your numbers came from. Also 100 percent disagree that non district games shouldn’t be included with rankings. Win them games that are against tougher competition and it will undoubtedly make you a top 3 team. St Ansgar would not be ranked 1 without that win to Osage to start the year.

My bad 6 - 19 then not a big difference considering who they finish with. Not all class A teams have the same number of non district games so you are penalizing the districts that only had 1 non district game.

 

[Zowwy21]

6-19 is lisbons 5 games, not sure where your numbers came from. Also 100 percent disagree that non district games shouldn’t be included with rankings. Win them games that are against tougher competition and it will undoubtedly make you a top 3 team. St Ansgar would not be ranked 1 without that win to Osage to start the year.

I don’t believe St Ansgar was ranked 1 till they beat West Hancock, which was 1 at the time.

 

[Zowwy21]

6-19 is lisbons 5 games, not sure where your numbers came from. Also 100 percent disagree that non district games shouldn’t be included with rankings. Win them games that are against tougher competition and it will undoubtedly make you a top 3 team. St Ansgar would not be ranked 1 without that win to Osage to start the year.

But agree need to take into account non district W/L and the strength of those teams.

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

My bad 6 - 19 then not a big difference considering who they finish with. Not all class A teams have the same number of non district games so you are penalizing the districts that only had 1 non district game.

Not all teams have the same number of district games either so how can you reward the teams playing more district games. This is Why you have to just take the whole schedule into factor not pieces of it.

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

I don’t believe St Ansgar was ranked 1 till they beat West Hancock, which was 1 at the time.

No they weren’t but they were not on anyones radar either until a week 1 upset of a ranked 2a Osage. It’s what got the ball rolling for them. Without both wins they wouldn’t be 1

 

[troutstamp1]

Not all teams have the same number of district games either so how can you reward the teams playing more district games. This is Why you have to just take the whole schedule into factor not pieces of it.

My bad 6 - 19 then not a big difference considering who they finish with. Not all class A teams have the same number of non district games so you are penalizing the districts that only had 1 non district game.

I guess it depends on the district, look at district 4 and the level of competition in the top 5 teams to most other districts have 2 good teams the other being the district with Madrid and Lynville. I just don't think rankings should have any weight in playoff pairings or pods because its only based on peoples opinions not the product on the field. I know some of these guys on the ranking committee and I can tell you they do very little research on teams to see who they played and how good those teams were. The people on the committee that are press people want to sell their stories so they write an article about how many shutouts this team has but it doesn't say those teams had no wins either but hey they are undefeated so lets rank them.

 

[Zowwy21]

I guess it depends on the district, look at district 4 and the level of competition in the top 5 teams to most other districts have 2 good teams the other being the district with Madrid and Lynville. I just don't think rankings should have any weight in playoff pairings or pods because its only based on peoples opinions not the product on the field. I know some of these guys on the ranking committee and I can tell you they do very little research on teams to see who they played and how good those teams were. The people on the committee that are press people want to sell their stories so they write an article about how many shutouts this team has but it doesn't say those teams had no wins either but hey they are undefeated so lets rank them.

Can't disagree with you that a number of the rankers are lazy and look purely at record. I am starting to see a few more that have 1 and 2 loss teams in the top 10, which is somewhat encouraging. Let's face it there is always going to be some biases involved with people because you give more value to the teams you are more familiar with. That's why I really prefer BCMoore (which I know you are not a big fan of), but it takes the human bias out of it and is based strictly on point spread analysis. It is not perfect, but I would argue it is the "most" perfect, with the information that is readily available. Dominant teams should dominate lesser teams. Maybe someone can develop a model that utilizes all the individual offensive, defensive and special teams stats and take the analysis past point spread to actual offensive / defensive matchups - seems like a lot of work though Let's face it even throughout the season teams change, whether it is due to injury or inexperienced players gaining experience or coaches figuring out which lineups work the best - so to place the same weight on early season record versus end of season record is another fallacy.

 

[PNation]

Games that intrigue me this week (in order of what they appear on quikstats)

Bellevue vs Maq Valley- I think we have kind of assumed that the four teams from this district would be East Buc, North Linn, Maq Valley and Starmont, but Bellevue could put a wrench in that thought process.

Central Decatur vs Madrid- Part of me wonders if Central Decatur is the actual 2nd best team in the district right now.

Lynnville Sully vs Mount Ayr- L-S didn't appear to be very strong against Wayne, Mount Ayr is a much better team.

North Butler vs North Tama- Two teams that appear to be headed towards the playoffs, or at least in the mix.

SCC vs West Hancock- I think West Hancock takes this one, but it might lend a little clarity about the strength of various districts around the state.

 

[troutstamp1]

Games that intrigue me this week (in order of what they appear on quikstats)

Bellevue vs Maq Valley- I think we have kind of assumed that the four teams from this district would be East Buc, North Linn, Maq Valley and Starmont, but Bellevue could put a wrench in that thought process.

Central Decatur vs Madrid- Part of me wonders if Central Decatur is the actual 2nd best team in the district right now.

Lynnville Sully vs Mount Ayr- L-S didn't appear to be very strong against Wayne, Mount Ayr is a much better team.

North Butler vs North Tama- Two teams that appear to be headed towards the playoffs, or at least in the mix.

SCC vs West Hancock- I think West Hancock takes this one, but it might lend a little clarity about the strength of various districts around the state.

Bellevue has MV, Starmont at home and NL on the road
Maq Valley has Bellevue on the road then home with Nl then at Starmont
Starmont has Postville at home then at Bellevue then MV at home
North Linn has Clayton Ridge at home then at MV and Bellevue at home,
East Buc has at North Cedar, at Clayton Ridge and Postville at home.

Will be interesting last 3 weeks, but I agree Bellevue and MV will determine who gets in, and Bellevue having both MV and Starmont at home is a big advantage.

 

[Hawkhopeful]

How did Lisbon only score 17 points on Pekin? 7 of them coming in the last two minutes and 7 on the first play of the game.

 

[HeHateMe2021]

Does anyone have the district locked up yet or will with a win on Friday?

 

[ISUChip]

Does anyone have the district locked up yet or will with a win on Friday?

MMCRU can clinch D1 with a win at Akron-Westfield.

ACGC can clinch D7 with a win over IKM-Manning.

 

[Hooper2021]

MMCRU can clinch D1 with a win at Akron-Westfield.

ACGC can clinch D7 with a win over IKM-Manning.

Yes - winner of AW vs MMCRU wins D1 barring crazy losses out of either team. MMCRU finishes with Alta (and a non district Westwood) who's not very good.

Akron finishes with South O'Brien and also Alta. Both teams ~should~ breeze into the playoffs after this game as the 1 and 2.

 

[Prancing Ponies]

Can't disagree with you that a number of the rankers are lazy and look purely at record. I am starting to see a few more that have 1 and 2 loss teams in the top 10, which is somewhat encouraging. Let's face it there is always going to be some biases involved with people because you give more value to the teams you are more familiar with. That's why I really prefer BCMoore (which I know you are not a big fan of), but it takes the human bias out of it and is based strictly on point spread analysis. It is not perfect, but I would argue it is the "most" perfect, with the information that is readily available. Dominant teams should dominate lesser teams. Maybe someone can develop a model that utilizes all the individual offensive, defensive and special teams stats and take the analysis past point spread to actual offensive / defensive matchups - seems like a lot of work though Let's face it even throughout the season teams change, whether it is due to injury or inexperienced players gaining experience or coaches figuring out which lineups work the best - so to place the same weight on early season record versus end of season record is another fallacy.

I have always liked BCMoore, but where I see the problem with them is on point differential. I was at a game the other night that ended an 18 point game. It was a continuous clock in the first quarter. The losing team scored 38 points. All were on the 2nd or 3rd team defense. First team offense did not hardly play past the first quarter. BCMoore does not take that into account. The game quickly goes from 50 points to 18 because of the backups, but analytics does not see that or take it into account. There really is no way to adjust for that. In the end, if you are going to win it all you have to beat the best whether that is inside or outside the dome.

 

[Zowwy21]

I have always liked BCMoore, but where I see the problem with them is on point differential. I was at a game the other night that ended an 18 point game. It was a continuous clock in the first quarter. The losing team scored 38 points. All were on the 2nd or 3rd team defense. First team offense did not hardly play past the first quarter. BCMoore does not take that into account. The game quickly goes from 50 points to 18 because of the backups, but analytics does not see that or take it into account. There really is no way to adjust for that. In the end, if you are going to win it all you have to beat the best whether that is inside or outside the dome.

Completely agree, definitely not perfect. The other thing is some teams pull their starters earlier than others. You can make an argument that if the backups do drop off significantly and the scores are somewhat skewed due to them that maybe they have less depth and thus more susceptible to injury risk. Again, not perfect, but definitely better than comparing records.

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

What is it, if you’re ranked top 8 after week 6 in bcmoore the title winner has always came from?

 

[Zowwy21]

What is it, if you’re ranked top 8 after week 6 in bcmoore the title winner has always came from?

Good question. I may have to do some research.

 

[hawkeyes08]

Good question. I may have to do some research.

Posted on the site--

"Week 5 rankings are the benchmark for understanding the championship contenders. 86% of championships are won by teams in the top 5 of the bcmoorerankings in week 5."

 

[Zowwy21]

I did do some research on the validity of BCMoore week 5 rankings in predicting the overall champions and here is what I found... I want to caveat by saying that I was only able to go back to 2017 to find the weekly rankings. Prior to that I could only find end of season rankings.

For Class A, for the last 6 years, the week 5 rankings had both the Champion and Runner-up ranked in the top 4 teams every year, typically either ranked 1 or 2. And over 90% of the time both teams that lost in the semifinals were in the top 8 by BCMoore week 7 rankings.

It's not quite as accurate when I looked at the results across all classes for the same time period...
However, 90% of the time, both the champ and runner-up were ranked within the top 6. And over 90% of the time both teams that lost in the semifinals were in the top 10 by BCMoore week 7 rankings.

 

[Zowwy21]

South Winn takes down Nashua Plainfield. I did not expect that. Any other big surprises?

 

[GOPANTHERS23]

South Winn takes down Nashua Plainfield. I did not expect that. Any other big surprises?

The Britt score was a big surprise I thought

 

[Zowwy21]

True. Anyone know what happened to SCC?

 

[Yep22]

Alright with 2 weeks left in the regular season

I'm gonna take a random shot at the sweet 16, elite 8, and final 4. I don't know who will play who and some off this will be way off just because of round 2 matchups and geography but just something fun and to talk about.

Sweet 16: All 4 teams from district 4 could make it to 2nd round but the 4 seed would have to upset a 1.
St. Ansgar
West Hancock
Woodbury Central
Madrid
Lisbon
Wapsie Valley
Lynnville-Sully
North Linn
East Buchanan
Columbus Community
ACGC
Logan Magnolia
MMCRU
Akron Westfield
Maquoketa Valley
Panorama

Elite 8: I could easily see Columbus or any of those other district 4 teams in this 8 depending on matchups.
St. Ansgar
West Hancock
Madrid
Woodbury Central
Wapsie Valley
Lisbon
Akron Westfield
Lynnville-Sully

Final 4: Wapsie may be a surprise- only loss is a good 1A Denver team. Have 5 defensive shutouts. Going under the radar because of that loss IMO.
St. Ansgar
Wapsie Valley
Madrid
Woodbury Central

Let's see some other predictions! Class A is wide open this year I feel. Gonna be the teams that are hot at the end of the year that run through the post season I think.

 

[troutstamp1]

I think you are too high on Wapsie especially when thats the only team in that district you got winning in the first round. the first round you can start to figure out a little on 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 matchups then the pods will be more of a matchup and style type thing to see who wins. I look at D4 and still a 4 way tie for the lead and they all play each other the last two weeks, im not sure if your a 1 or two seed that you want to face a 3 or 4 out of this district as it could be MV, North Linn or East Buc and if they stick to geography as much as they can in first round then I could see those teams playing Wapsie or Lisbon districts.

 

[Zowwy21]

Agree with the Sweet 16.

Agree, I feel like at least one if not two of the D4 teams will make the final 8. If I had to guess, I would say they would take down Lisbon, but honestly not sure which 2 it will be.

I'm not sold on Madrid. Too many close games over relatively mediocre competition.

As far as Wapsie goes, I do think they are underrated, but it will come down to matchups. They do very well against smaller, speedier backs and well against the pass, but I feel their Achilles heel is a big, power run back. If they get matched up against them, I can see them getting beat in a low scoring afair, possibly even Maq Valley, which could be a first-round matchup if they were to get 4th. The good thing for them is the traditional power back teams like St Ansgar and West Hancock are not quite as pound heavy this year.

I also agree that there is a big drop off after WV, but the fact that St Angar only beat Nashua 28-6 and South Winn beat them 22-14 has my head scratching as I had thought St Ansgar to be more than 2 TDs better than South Winn.

Can't wait to see this all plays out - really can't wait to see how the state breaks up the pods after round one!

Having said that. I believe the final 2 teams will be West Hancock and Woodbury Central.

 

[troutstamp1]

Agree with the Sweet 16.

Agree, I feel like at least one if not two of the D4 teams will make the final 8. If I had to guess, I would say they would take down Lisbon, but honestly not sure which 2 it will be.

I'm not sold on Madrid. Too many close games over relatively mediocre competition.

As far as Wapsie goes, I do think they are underrated, but it will come down to matchups. They do very well against smaller, speedier backs and well against the pass, but I feel their Achilles heel is a big, power run back. If they get matched up against them, I can see them getting beat in a low scoring afair, possibly even Maq Valley, which could be a first-round matchup if they were to get 4th. The good thing for them is the traditional power back teams like St Ansgar and West Hancock are not quite as pound heavy this year.

I also agree that there is a big drop off after WV, but the fact that St Angar only beat Nashua 28-6 and South Winn beat them 22-14 has my head scratching as I had thought St Ansgar to be more than 2 TDs better than South Winn.

Can't wait to see this all plays out - really can't wait to see how the state breaks up the pods after round one!

Having said that. I believe the final 2 teams will be West Hancock and Woodbury Central.

I think teams like Lisbon and Wapsie will be at a big disadvantage come playoffs because of poor schedule competition, Lisbon's beat a very Good Columbus Junction team early in the year but other than that their sched doesn't help them. Wapsie played and got beat by a very good Denver team early in the year but like lisbon their district sched isn't helping them as far as competition. D4 will shake out this week as North Linn and Maq Valley play each other and Starmont goes to Bellevue, then on the last Friday night, Maq Valley goes to Starmont and Bellevue to North Linn. Wapsie still has Nashua but im still baffled with them getting beat by South Winn. Lake Mills 6-0 has St Anger and West Hancock left so they will come down to earth the next couple weeks. It will be interesting how they pod teams and split up tougher vs weaker districts.

 

[Zowwy21]

Honestly, it wouldn't shock me if North Butler beat Nashua this week. North Tama, North Butler, Nashua and even South Winn aren't as bad as you might think. South Winn lost a close one to Starmont week 1. They are all clearly tier 2 teams, but they are not push overs. The thing is, this district will likely be paired with either the D4, which I wouldn't expect any of these D3 to beat OR D2, and then possibly 2nd place could beat Lake Mills, but even that is a big if.

 

[PNation]

Looking at the stats from the NP vs South Winn game it looks like they were without their leading tackler, a kid who was an All State lineman last year. There was also a kid from there that graduated last year who was missing at the time, and was found dead on Saturday. He was on the team last year and he played 4 sports so would have been a teammate with alot of the team. You have to wonder if their heads were right with all of that going on.

 

[troutstamp1]

Honestly, it wouldn't shock me if North Butler beat Nashua this week. North Tama, North Butler, Nashua and even South Winn aren't as bad as you might think. South Winn lost a close one to Starmont week 1. They are all clearly tier 2 teams, but they are not push overs. The thing is, this district will likely be paired with either the D4, which I wouldn't expect any of these D3 to beat OR D2, and then possibly 2nd place could beat Lake Mills, but even that is a big if.

I think if they pair districts then D4 and D5 will be together as nobody close in SE iowa. So as standings are now by Bound it would be.
Lisbon vs Maq Valley, Bellevue or Starmont
Columbus vs one of those three
Pekin at North Linn or Maq Valley winner
Danville at East Buc
I think D5 order is pretty much decided but D4 still a mess.

I actually think they wont do a complete pairing of districts but yet will split them up some.

 

[troutstamp1]

Looking at the stats from the NP vs South Winn game it looks like they were without their leading tackler, a kid who was an All State lineman last year. There was also a kid from there that graduated last year who was missing at the time, and was found dead on Saturday. He was on the team last year and he played 4 sports so would have been a teammate with alot of the team. You have to wonder if their heads were right with all of that going on.

I noticed that lineman didn't play either but it didn't look like he was hurt running up and down the sidelines in street clothes. Doesnt Nashua finish with North Butler and Wapsie? They could go from 4th to first in 2 weeks if they win.

 

[Zowwy21]

Looking at the eastern side of the state would you assume (I know, lot of assumptions here)...
Note: I'm assuming South Winn beats North Tama this week and Wapsie beats Nashua next week. Don't know about the Nashua/North Butler game this week.

D4 East Buc, North Linn, Maq Valley, Starmont, in pretty much any order.

• East Buc in best position to get #1 because they have no remaining challenges and thus likely the highest point spread and the head-to-head win against North Linn.
• Starmont would have to win the next two games to take over the #1. MV would be 4. (If North Linn loses Starmont has tie breaker over East Buc; if North Linn wins, there would be a 3-way tie and Starmont wins on reverse alphabetical tie-breaker)
• If Maq Valley wins out they would get second place as East Buc has head-to-head against them. And North Linn would get 3rd and Starmont 4th (due to head-to-head tie-breaker).
• Personally, I think Maq Valley will beat Starmont. So the biggest game in my eyes is this week's North Linn/Maq Valley game.

D2: #1 Saint Ansgar vs D3: #4 South Winn (or Nashua if they lose to North Butler)
D3: #1 WV vs D2: #4 MC Newman
D4: #1 ?? vs D5: #4 Danville
D5: #1 Lisbon vs D4: #4 ???

D2: #2 West Hancock D3: #3 Nashua or North Butler or South Winn (depending on Nashua/North Butler game)
D3: #2 Nashua (or North Butler if they beat Nashua) vs D2: #3 Lake Mills
D4: #2 ?? vs D5: #3 Pekin
D5: #2 Columbus vs D4: #3 ???

 

[Zowwy21]

Remind me again, are the pods after round one geographic in any manner or is it more ranking of remaining teams and then somewhat evenly dispersed? Would suck for Saint Ansgar and West Hancock to be in the same pod when they may be 2 of the top 4 teams.

 

[Yep22]

Remind me again, are the pods after round one geographic in any manner or is it more ranking of remaining teams and then somewhat evenly dispersed? Would suck for Saint Ansgar and West Hancock to be in the same pod when they may be 2 of the top 4 teams.

I think the state said for the pods they are going to do their best to use the official iahsaa rankings while keeping geography in mind to split up teams.

 

[Gamefly]

Agree with the Sweet 16.

Agree, I feel like at least one if not two of the D4 teams will make the final 8. If I had to guess, I would say they would take down Lisbon, but honestly not sure which 2 it will be.

I'm not sold on Madrid. Too many close games over relatively mediocre competition.

As far as Wapsie goes, I do think they are underrated, but it will come down to matchups. They do very well against smaller, speedier backs and well against the pass, but I feel their Achilles heel is a big, power run back. If they get matched up against them, I can see them getting beat in a low scoring afair, possibly even Maq Valley, which could be a first-round matchup if they were to get 4th. The good thing for them is the traditional power back teams like St Ansgar and West Hancock are not quite as pound heavy this year.

I also agree that there is a big drop off after WV, but the fact that St Angar only beat Nashua 28-6 and South Winn beat them 22-14 has my head scratching as I had thought St Ansgar to be more than 2 TDs better than South Winn.

Can't wait to see this all plays out - really can't wait to see how the state breaks up the pods after round one!

Having said that. I believe the final 2 teams will be West Hancock and Woodbury Central.

It rained the entire game when st ansgar played nashua. As they say, rain is a great equalizer.