BCMoore Rankings: 10/09

[bcmoore87]

BCMoore Rankings

Comments are welcome.

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Data source: iahsaa.org, 2015/10/10 06:00
3. Comments are welcome.

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Don Bosco              8-5 ( 5- 0) 145.88  5W  79.59 ( 35)  64.60 (  2)   5.80 (  1)
    2  Marcus MMC             8-2 ( 6- 0) 139.22  6W  88.24 ( 24)  53.33 (  8)  14.17 (  4)
    3  Janesville             8-3 ( 6- 0) 132.87  6W  75.67 ( 39)  53.33 (  9)  15.67 (  7)
    4  Newell-Fonda           8-1 ( 7- 0) 132.23  7W 102.78 (  5)  48.43 ( 15)  22.29 ( 17)
    5  Lenox                  8-8 ( 6- 1) 131.41  1L  89.30 ( 20)  54.00 (  7)  15.71 (  8)
    6  Exira-Elk Horn-Kimb    8-1 ( 6- 1) 131.20  1L  85.57 ( 26)  51.71 ( 12)  19.00 ( 13)
    7  West Bend-Mallard      8-2 ( 3- 3) 126.37  2W 107.81 (  2)  34.83 ( 34)  18.00 ( 10)
    8  Ruthven GTRA           8-2 ( 6- 1) 125.47  4W 102.13 (  7)  45.14 ( 18)  22.43 ( 18)
    9  Tabor Fremont-Mills    8-8 ( 7- 0) 122.34  7W  98.33 ( 10)  44.14 ( 22)  13.14 (  3)
   10  Glidden-Ralston        8-7 ( 6- 0) 121.71  6W  70.12 ( 45)  52.83 ( 11)   6.00 (  2)
   11  East Mills             8-8 ( 5- 2) 121.29  1W  94.91 ( 13)  36.57 ( 32)  19.14 ( 14)
   12  Northwood-Kensett      8-3 ( 5- 2) 117.39  1L  97.74 ( 12)  47.14 ( 16)  23.71 ( 20)
   13  Stanton                8-8 ( 5- 2) 116.94  1W  80.18 ( 33)  42.29 ( 24)  15.00 (  5)
   14  Elkader Central        8-4 ( 7- 0) 116.19  7W  68.33 ( 48)  66.86 (  1)  22.57 ( 19)
   15  Harris-Lake Park       8-2 ( 4- 3) 115.78  1L 102.52 (  6)  37.43 ( 31)  20.86 ( 16)
   16  Westside Ar-We-Va      8-1 ( 5- 2) 114.15  1W  89.69 ( 19)  46.43 ( 17)  25.57 ( 22)

 

[captain_sparrow]

Brent, you have the result of the Lenox vs. Fremont-Mills game wrong. Lenox won 40-34.

 

[WildCats2015]

I would think Glidden would be ranked a little higher

 

[notlongago]

I would think Glidden would be ranked a little higher

They have a very weak schedule. That's why they aren't higher.

 

[JeffyScoresALLDAY]

Don Bosco probably has the hardest schedule this year. Glad to see them at the top for once.. No love for that team.

 

[bcmoore87]

resync'ed with iahsaa.org

=============

BCMoore Rankings

Comments are welcome.

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Data source: iahsaa.org, 2015/10/10 06:00
3. Comments are welcome.

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Don Bosco              8-5 ( 5- 0) 145.79  5W  78.37 ( 35)  64.60 (  2)   5.80 (  1)
    2  Marcus MMC             8-2 ( 6- 0) 138.94  6W  87.85 ( 23)  53.33 (  8)  14.17 (  4)
    3  Lenox                  8-8 ( 7- 0) 136.24  7W  88.61 ( 21)  54.86 (  7)  14.86 (  5)
    4  Janesville             8-3 ( 6- 0) 132.70  6W  75.53 ( 39)  53.33 (  9)  15.67 (  8)
    5  Newell-Fonda           8-1 ( 7- 0) 131.79  7W 102.31 (  5)  48.43 ( 15)  22.29 ( 17)
    6  Exira-Elk Horn-Kimb    8-1 ( 6- 1) 130.80  1L  85.14 ( 28)  51.71 ( 12)  19.00 ( 13)
    7  West Bend-Mallard      8-2 ( 3- 3) 126.01  2W 107.44 (  2)  34.83 ( 34)  18.00 ( 10)
    8  Ruthven GTRA           8-2 ( 6- 1) 125.19  4W 101.81 (  7)  45.14 ( 18)  22.43 ( 18)
    9  Glidden-Ralston        8-7 ( 6- 0) 121.72  6W  69.98 ( 46)  52.83 ( 11)   6.00 (  2)
   10  East Mills             8-8 ( 5- 2) 120.96  1W  94.69 ( 13)  36.57 ( 32)  19.14 ( 14)
   11  Tabor Fremont-Mills    8-8 ( 6- 1) 118.50  1L  98.62 ( 10)  43.29 ( 22)  14.00 (  3)
   12  Northwood-Kensett      8-3 ( 5- 2) 117.14  1L  97.53 ( 11)  47.14 ( 16)  23.71 ( 20)
   13  Stanton                8-8 ( 5- 2) 116.08  1W  79.44 ( 34)  42.29 ( 24)  15.00 (  6)
   14  Elkader Central        8-4 ( 7- 0) 116.08  7W  68.71 ( 48)  66.86 (  1)  22.57 ( 19)
   15  Harris-Lake Park       8-2 ( 4- 3) 115.41  1L 102.15 (  6)  37.43 ( 31)  20.86 ( 16)
   16  Westside Ar-We-Va      8-1 ( 5- 2) 113.59  1W  89.23 ( 20)  46.43 ( 17)  25.57 ( 22)

 

[Rams28]

How is WB-M ranked over GT/RA , a team with three loses and one of those loses was to GT/RA

 

[bcmoore87]

* WB-M @ GT/RA - 2 point home win -- provides no compelling evidence that GT/RA is better than WB-M -- provides a lot of evidence that the two teams are about equal in strength.

* Computer is overestimating WB-M based on 33-point over performance against Remsen St Mary; this effect will lessen as more games are played

If there were a rematch on a neutral field, who should be favored GT/RA or WB-M?

 

[TP 15]

Don Bosco does not have a hard schedule.

 

[Rams28]

Don Bosco probably has the hardest schedule this year. Glad to see them at the top for once.. No love for that team.

According to this

* WB-M @ GT/RA - 2 point home win -- provides no compelling evidence that GT/RA is better than WB-M -- provides a lot of evidence that the two teams are about equal in strength.

* Computer is overestimating WB-M based on 33-point over performance against Remsen St Mary; this effect will lessen as more games are played

If there were a rematch on a neutral field, who should be favored GT/RA or WB-M?

That's fine if they had the same record but what about WB-M other two loses

 

[rockchalk2]

* WB-M @ GT/RA - 2 point home win -- provides no compelling evidence that GT/RA is better than WB-M -- provides a lot of evidence that the two teams are about equal in strength.

* Computer is overestimating WB-M based on 33-point over performance against Remsen St Mary; this effect will lessen as more games are played

If there were a rematch on a neutral field, who should be favored GT/RA or WB-M?

Yes it does, it shows GTRA was two points better than WBM on that given night. GTRA also beat them last year.

 

[hawkeyepower100]

I swear this comes up every year. People think about it, a team can be ranked ahead of a team even though they lost to them. So when the Giants upset the undefeated Patriots were the giants the best team that year? Probably not NE probably was for being what 18-0. There are countless times that a lesser team wins. So when Michigan lost to App St that instantly makes App St better? WBM played all their losses without their QB and lost by 16 to defending state champ, 2 to a 2 loss team, and 2 to a GTRA team whose only loss is to MMC. Countless times people freak out on these BCmoore rankings. Look at the end of the year and most of the time pretty close to accurate. This is a computer based system fellas and when certain games haven't been played with say maybe common opponents it can look a little screwy till it all plays out.

 

[bcmoore87]

> it shows GTRA was two points better than WBM on that given night.

We both agree that that is the data. What is a proper conclusion? If I flip a coin and get heads, should I then conclude that the coin must be a two-headed fake coin?

> GTRA also beat them last year.

In my opinion this is clearly historical bias.

 

[Rams28]

I'm just using GT/RA and WB-M as an example ,I just don"t understand how a 3-3 team , a team with as many loses as wins can be ranked above a 6-1 team , how does WB-M two extra loses trump GT/RA two extra wins

 

[rockchalk2]

I swear this comes up every year. People think about it, a team can be ranked ahead of a team even though they lost to them. So when the Giants upset the undefeated Patriots were the giants the best team that year? Probably not NE probably was for being what 18-0. There are countless times that a lesser team wins. So when Michigan lost to App St that instantly makes App St better? WBM played all their losses without their QB and lost by 16 to defending state champ, 2 to a 2 loss team, and 2 to a GTRA team whose only loss is to MMC. Countless times people freak out on these BCmoore rankings. Look at the end of the year and most of the time pretty close to accurate. This is a computer based system fellas and when certain games haven't been played with say maybe common opponents it can look a little screwy till it all plays out.

I said on that given night. So yes, the Giants were better than the Patriots that night. Yes, App State was better than Michigan that given night. I understand your input, Hawkeye. But I am just supporting what I was saying. Their QB has been playing Defense since they played GTRA. It will be nice to see them play MMC with their QB in there.. But I am just saying, I don't quite understand it either like some others. Especially with WBM's loss coming more recent than GTRA's. But time will tell who should be there.

 

[hawkeyepower100]

You seem to not get the point then. Because said team is better that night they are a better team?

 

[bcmoore87]

> how does WB-M two extra loses trump GT/RA two extra wins

Practical:

As stated above, the computer model is putting too much emphasis on the big WB-M win over Remsen St Mary.

Theoretical:

It could occur that a 3-3 team, ranked #7, has losses to #1, #2, and #10 and wins against #8, #9, and #11. Let's further pretend that the #10 team has a 5-1 record with losses to #25 and wins against #7, #30, #40, #45, and #50. You might then think that perhaps the (5-1) #10 team had an upset win against the (3-3) #7 team.

 

[hawkeyepower100]

BC I don't think he's going to get it.

 

[rockchalk2]

> how does WB-M two extra loses trump GT/RA two extra wins

Practical:

As stated above, the computer model is putting too much emphasis on the big WB-M win over Remsen St Mary.

Theoretical:

It could occur that a 3-3 team, ranked #7, has losses to #1, #2, and #10 and wins against #8, #9, and #11. Let's further pretend that the #10 team has a 5-1 record with losses to #25 and wins against #7, #30, #40, #45, and #50. You might then think that perhaps the (5-1) #10 team had an upset win against the (3-3) #7 team.

Thank you.

 

[rockchalk2]

BC I don't think he's going to get it.

Haha, nope. I got it. Wasn't freaking out or anything. Just questioning it. Glad BC could help!