BCMoore Rankings: 10/07

[bcmoore87]

BCMoore Rankings

Comments are welcome.

Notes:
1. Rankings are unbiased.
2. Data source: iahsaa.org, 2016/10/08 07:30
3. Comments are welcome.

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Pella                 3A-6 ( 7- 0) 194.55  7W 147.48 ( 21)  41.71 (  4)   4.14 (  1)
    2  Creston COM           3A-7 ( 7- 0) 182.00  7W 145.08 ( 28)  45.57 (  1)  14.29 ( 11)
    3  CR Xavier             3A-3 ( 7- 0) 178.96  7W 141.05 ( 34)  41.00 (  5)  10.00 (  4)
    4  Webster City          3A-2 ( 6- 1) 177.10  4W 148.91 ( 18)  41.71 (  3)  11.57 (  6)
    5  Storm Lake            3A-1 ( 7- 0) 172.08  7W 139.62 ( 40)  35.00 ( 10)   8.00 (  3)
    6  Norwalk               3A-6 ( 6- 1) 171.76  1L 144.11 ( 31)  42.43 (  2)  18.86 ( 19)
    7  Carroll               3A-7 ( 7- 0) 171.71  7W 151.62 ( 12)  33.71 ( 13)  17.14 ( 17)
    8  Glenwood              3A-7 ( 5- 2) 168.87  1L 149.34 ( 16)  37.71 (  7)  16.57 ( 16)
    9  Boone                 3A-2 ( 6- 1) 168.37  6W 152.49 (  8)  31.00 ( 17)  14.00 ( 10)
   10  Dallas Center-Grimes  3A-2 ( 5- 2) 163.35  1W 156.67 (  4)  22.86 ( 30)  14.86 ( 12)
   11  West Delaware         3A-4 ( 6- 1) 163.26  1W 134.46 ( 50)  37.86 (  6)  13.43 (  8)
   12  Gilbert               3A-2 ( 6- 1) 162.37  2W 152.41 (  9)  30.71 ( 18)  20.71 ( 24)
   13  Huxley Ballard        3A-2 ( 4- 3) 162.12  1L 156.40 (  6)  28.00 ( 22)  22.00 ( 26)
   14  Solon                 3A-5 ( 6- 1) 159.69  5W 138.72 ( 42)  31.43 ( 16)  11.43 (  5)
   15  Carlisle              3A-6 ( 4- 3) 158.83  3W 148.51 ( 19)  36.14 (  9)  26.71 ( 37)
   16  Sioux City Heelan     3A-1 ( 4- 3) 158.56  3W 149.13 ( 17)  23.43 ( 29)  13.86 (  9)

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Dallas Center Grimes was ranked #17 last week and comes in this week at #10 after beating Iowa Falls-Alden 37-0. Nice win for DCG, but Iowa Falls-Alden is 3-4 this year.

Let's look at their wins:

2A Hampton-Dumont 0-7 (#44 in 2A BCMoore rankings)

2A Aplington Parkersburg 2-5 (#36 in 2A BCMoore rankings)

3A Greene County 0-7 (#37 in 3A BCMoore rankings)


So, DCG just beat a team that has 3 wins against teams with a combined 2-19 record. One of those 2 wins was against a below average 2A team and another was against a below average 1A team.

Is it possible that your formula isn't getting enough information to accurately rank the western teams? It seems like DCG has no business moving up 7 spots for a win against a very bad team, let alone being ranked #10 in general. What are your thoughts on this? Thanks, BC.

 

[bcmoore87]

This is all FWIW, the model is statistical regression with an adjustment to remove the effect of non-competitive games. So the computer has a mind of its own.

This is what I think the computer is seeing:

-----------

week 6 to week 7 transition:

#10 Ballard -- expected to win by 0.18, losses by 22, moves to #13
#11 Gilbert -- expected to win by 26.98, wins by 17, moves to #12
#12 Solon -- expected to win by 34.03, wins by 26, moves to #14
#13 Harlan -- expected to win by 21.94, losses by 26, moves to #17
#14 West Delaware -- expected to win by 20.57, wins by 35, moves to #11
#15 Heelan -- expected to win by 38.58, wins by 32, moves to #16
#16 Dallas Center-Grimes -- expected to win by 14.14, wins by 37, moves to #10
...
#20 Carlisle -- expected to win by 9.61, wins by 21, moves up to #15

-----------

Noticing also that DC-G's non-conference opponents both outperformed this weekend: ADM outperformed by 8.20 points and Pella outperformed by 20.35 points.

-----------

So I think the answers are:

1. DC-G outperformed by about 10 points
2. DC-G's non-district opponents were under-rated and had to be adjusted upward, this in turn floats DC-G higher
3. Teams ahead of DC-G generally did not play as well as predicted (exception West Delaware, who moved up also)

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Awesome. Thanks for helping me to understand this a little better! I think I speak for most when I say that I appreciate what you do.

 

[Vroom_C14]

Still don't see how Ballard is above other teams when they were supposed to win and lost (badly). Solon was supposed to win and only missed 7.+ and dropped and behind Ballard... odd.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Still don't see how Ballard is above other teams when they were supposed to win and lost (badly). Solon was supposed to win and only missed 7.+ and dropped and behind Ballard... odd.

I'd assume there are two games that will hold Solon back from ever getting too high in this poll:

26-21 win to Mt. Vernon
0-34 loss to Regina

They never play Regina very well so it's hard to judge them off of that game. I remember when Regina beat the Solon team in 2011 and ended Solon's 40 something game winning streak. That team dominated from that loss on and won their 4th consecutive title. Also, I was at the Solon vs. Regina game in 2013 and Solon got blown out by a similar score to this season and they went on to play in the Semifinal against Washington. Could have been the championship if the refs didn't help out the Demons on a botched punt.

The Mt. Vernon score is too close for the computer to like it, but judging off of Solon's scores this year they don't necessarily keep starters in and pile points on.

 

[bcmoore87]

> Ballard

(small insight)

Ballard's two non-conference opponents won bigger than expected in week7.

 

[Vroom_C14]

I'd assume there are two games that will hold Solon back from ever getting too high in this poll:

26-21 win to Mt. Vernon
0-34 loss to Regina

They never play Regina very well so it's hard to judge them off of that game. I remember when Regina beat the Solon team in 2011 and ended Solon's 40 something game winning streak. That team dominated from that loss on and won their 4th consecutive title. Also, I was at the Solon vs. Regina game in 2013 and Solon got blown out by a similar score to this season and they went on to play in the Semifinal against Washington. Could have been the championship if the refs didn't help out the Demons on a botched punt.

The Mt. Vernon score is too close for the computer to like it, but judging off of Solon's scores this year they don't necessarily keep starters in and pile points on.

Both were ranked #1 in their class at that time. One would think that would hold some water (along with going to a the time #3 Washington and winning when expected to lose).

Oh well - agree they haven't played Regina well (consistently) in the past 5 years.

 

[Vroom_C14]

> Ballard

(small insight)

Ballard's two non-conference opponents won bigger than expected in week7.

And having Washington lose to Keokuk didn't help either. It all plays out in the end.