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BCMoore Projections

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Zowwy21

Freshman
Nov 6, 2013
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Thought it would be interesting to play out the season based on the BCMoore projections (I know not perfect but best I could come up with). Here are the results of the hypothetical scenario.

District Winners:
Hinton
IKM
Algona Garrigan
St Ansgar
Ed Co
Pekin
Hudson
Lynnville Sully
AHSTW
Westwood Sloan

Wildcards based on RPI (Projected Rec - Projected Opponent's Record:
North Tama (8-1 30-51)
Akron Westfield (7-2 42-39)
Grundy Center (6-3 50-31)
Belmond Klemme (8-1 29-52)
SW Valley (7-2 36-45)
Wapsie Valley (6-3 40-41)

Just on outside:
Belle Plain (6-3 39-42)
Sioux Central (7-2 32-49)
West Hancock (6-3 37-44)
South Winn (6-3 40-41 - very low opponents opponents percentage)
 
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Hey just for fun how would you see the split as for as west and east for playoffs with those teams
 
Hinton
IKM
Garrigan
AHSTW
Westwood
Akron
SW Valley
Belmond

St Ansgar
Ed Co
Pekin
Hudson
Lynnville
Wapsie
North Tama
Grundy Center
 
The break up looked good Kevin
East side matchups pry be something like

Grundy Center at Saint Ansgar
Wapsie Valley at ed co
Lynnville vs Pekin
North Tama at Hudson
 
They’ll try to keep teams from playing in the same district through out the whole playoffs if they can. District 7 is no matter what probably going to have to play each other
 
PNation said:
The Hudson district would get 4 in?
Click to expand...

I think that would be unlikely, just from a math standpoint of the RPI. The overall record still accounts for a 37.5% of RPI, so I would think a team out there in a "lesser" district would finish 8-1 (I'm thinking a team like BGM) and have an advantage over a 6-3 team (like wapsie in the scenario above , who likely has higher Strength of schedule portion on RPI?). And that doesnt include the probability of some districts ending with co-champions, which could knock a 1-2 potential wild card teams out?

I dont have enough math interest to crunch those numbers at this point, but in my beautiful mind, that is how i'd see it.
 
Sev, I did crunch the math, granted with the enormous assumption that BCMoore predictions are 100% correct, but that would get 4 D7 teams in. And based on BCMoore there were no co-champions to deal with.
 
Well the fact that bcmoore doesn’t have BG, West Hancock, and/or Belmond in the top ten I would say it is pretty unreliable
 
Zowwy21 said:
Sev, I did crunch the math, granted with the enormous assumption that BCMoore predictions are 100% correct, but that would get 4 D7 teams in. And based on BCMoore there were no co-champions to deal with.
Click to expand...

Zowwy , you must have a lot of time on your hands! Or a pretty good computer program.
Does BC Moore projections have BGM finishing 8-1 or 7-2? At 8-1 I would think a lot has to go right for a 6-3 finisher in D7 (whether its wapsie or one of the others) to make up the ground in the other two values of RPI. Specially considering BGM is 3rd -4th in this weeks RPI from the state.

That would actually make me feel better about rpi if that were the case...
 
Yeah, don't tell my boss :) I didn't do every one. I basically determined which District winners there were using BCMoore (not too difficult) and then focused on the remaining 12 teams that were 6-3 or better. So not insignificant, but I definitely didn't calculate it for everyone.

BCMoore has BGM losing their next 3 games (Belle Plain, Pekin, Durant), so finishing 6-3 with opponents records of 33-48 (low). So if they did finish 7-2 that would nudge them up just above WV into the 6th spot.
 
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Sev393 said:
I think that would be unlikely, just from a math standpoint of the RPI. The overall record still accounts for a 37.5% of RPI, so I would think a team out there in a "lesser" district would finish 8-1 (I'm thinking a team like BGM) and have an advantage over a 6-3 team (like wapsie in the scenario above , who likely has higher Strength of schedule portion on RPI?). And that doesnt include the probability of some districts ending with co-champions, which could knock a 1-2 potential wild card teams out?

I dont have enough math interest to crunch those numbers at this point, but in my beautiful mind, that is how i'd see it.
Click to expand...
Okay so is it just 3 way ties for district champs that get in or is the state taking say a fake co district champ scenario. Saying that I mean if two teams finish 4-1 and obviously one lost to the other and the other got tripped up by a random team in the district. I would think head to head would come into play and the team with the loss head to head would go back into the rpi pool
 
I believe it is all teams that share a district title. I don’t know whether they will sees them or disregard seed and go geographically or how that gets determined, especially in a shared title scenario.
 
If they do all teams that share and it’s a two way tie that’s messed up n state needs to fix it. Head to head should come into play and loser of head to head go back into the rpi pool. To me that isn’t a district champ
 
Handbook states that only district champs or ties for district champ will receive automatic bids. Remaining go by RPI.
 
Yeah I read that but that still don’t help. What is the state considering a tie? Is that just 3 way ties or will 2 way ties be treated the same when technically there is a true champion because of a head to head victory
 
The lack of clarity on that issue is a head scratcher. Although not surprising from IAHSAA. I can’t wait for the mayhem. But lots of new precedents will be set in the next 4-6 weeks ...well at least until it all changes in 2 years!!
 
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D7 is highly underated imo, but probably only one gets in. Durant is better than most think, losing to Wilton and Tipton, but they will HAVE to win out to make it in and have a huge date set with Pekin for week 9. On the other hand, if Pekin were to win every game up to that matchup, but lose to Durant, then D7 probably gets two playoff teams because Pekin has a very high RPI. That's if they win out though
 
Football211 said:
D7 is highly underated imo, but probably only one gets in. Durant is better than most think, losing to Wilton and Tipton, but they will HAVE to win out to make it in and have a huge date set with Pekin for week 9. On the other hand, if Pekin were to win every game up to that matchup, but lose to Durant, then D7 probably gets two playoff teams because Pekin has a very high RPI. That's if they win out though
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I don’t think anyone will agree with you for a few reasons. 1 is you don’t even know what district the teams you r talking about play in. You are talking about district 6 not 7 because 7 in stacked! 6 has one good team and that is Pekin. I will agree with u Durant is solid. Imo pry the second best team in that district. The rest of that district is bad. Yes even bgm with their 5-0 record. They have played no one. This is one of the worst districts imo. District 5 is also bad. I dk which one is worse to be honest.
 
GOPANTHERS23 said:
I don’t think anyone will agree with you for a few reasons. 1 is you don’t even know what district the teams you r talking about play in. You are talking about district 6 not 7 because 7 in stacked! 6 has one good team and that is Pekin. I will agree with u Durant is solid. Imo pry the second best team in that district. The rest of that district is bad. Yes even bgm with their 5-0 record. They have played no one. This is one of the worst districts imo. District 5 is also bad. I dk which one is worse to be honest.
Click to expand...
ok buddy it was a mistake at 10:30 last night after a 12 hour work day, I’m sorry. Although, the only thing you acknowledged was me saying D6 is underrated, not my analysis on the district possibly getting two in, which was the whole point of the post. I will agree with you that many of those other teams are overrated, but bad is too strong a word.
 
Btw talking about bad districts, have you even looked at 8? Lynville Sully will win that district pretty well by default, but would finish 4th at best in “the awful district 6”.
 
Zowwy21 said:
Handbook states that only district champs or ties for district champ will receive automatic bids. Remaining go by RPI.
Click to expand...

Zowwy, thanks for the heads up on the scorestream app. I'm interested to see how it works in real time, compared to #iahsfb / twitter.
 
Scorestream is only as good as the fans that provide updates for the games, but it is gaining usage. Wapsie game scores are up to the minute, others are more periodic. But you can set up which teams you want to "watch" so they are all right there.
 
Football211 said:
Btw talking about bad districts, have you even looked at 8? Lynville Sully will win that district pretty well by default, but would finish 4th at best in “the awful district 6”.
Click to expand...
My analysis on district 6 is that it is bad overall. If they get 2 in the system is flawed but I could see it happening because they all played a very weak non district schedule to get a easy 3-4 wins and your own record is a big part of the rpi. Next cycle ppl will catch on this and will do the same if they end up with multiple teams.
As for district 8 yeah I forgot about that district lol pry the reason cuz it is by far far far the worst! I don’t even pay any attention to it n haven’t all year when I saw the teams in it. The state dropped the ball on spreading these districts out even. Lynnville wouldnt finish 4th at best in 6. I would say they could finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th.
 
GOPANTHERS23 said:
I don’t think anyone will agree with you for a few reasons. 1 is you don’t even know what district the teams you r talking about play in. You are talking about district 6 not 7 because 7 in stacked! 6 has one good team and that is Pekin. I will agree with u Durant is solid. Imo pry the second best team in that district. The rest of that district is bad. Yes even bgm with their 5-0 record. They have played no one. This is one of the worst districts imo. District 5 is also bad. I dk which one is worse to be honest.
Click to expand...

Oops. I guess Pekin isn’t the only “ good” team in D 6.
 
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