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A Look at the RPI and the Playoffs

Iabeastmode

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I put together a little information about the RPI and how it affected the playoffs. I only looked at Class 1A, 2A, and 3A for the simple reason that the others are a little different in the number of Districts, Teams, etc.

1A had the top 16 RPI teams qualify for the playoffs. 5 teams finished with 9-0 record (South Central Calhoun, Bellevue, Van Meter, Interstate 35 and Dike New Hartford) There were no District Champion ties, All teams with 7-2 records or better made the playoffs. The only team that was 6-3 that made it was Pella Christian. As a side note Pella Christian is the only At-Large 6-3 team to qualify for the playoffs in Class 1A, 2A, or 3A. Pella Christians losses were all to 9-0 teams, that is what saved them. So for the future if you don't plan on winning a district title, falling to 6-3 pretty much will knock you out of the playoffs. 1A pretty much went the best it possibly could have and I feel for the most part the top 16 teams made. I do feel however that there is a chance that none of the top 4 rated teams in the RPI will compete in the semi-finals. Which still means there is some tweaking to.

2A was a mess this year. #12 Clear Lake 7-2 and #14 Waterloo Columbus 7-2 did not make the playoffs. With a 3 Way tie in District 7 it allowed 11 automatic qualifiers with only room for 5 at large teams. There were 4 6-3 teams that qualified (Crestwood, Union, Des Moines Christian, and Williamsburg) There was 1 5-4 team that qualified (Kuemper Catholic) All the 6-3 teams and the 5-4 teams qualified via District Championships or Co-Championships. When the RPI system goes bad it really gets messy. There was only 1 team that was 9-0 in 2A (Prarie City Monroe). I feel 2 of the 4 top teams will make it to the semi-finals.

3A Like 1A was pretty drama free. 3 teams were 9-0 (Xavier, Lewis Central, Solon) 15 of the top 16 teams made the playoffs. All 7-2 teams got in. 2 6-3 teams (Norwalk and Carroll) made it in as district champions. I predict all of the top 4 teams will make it to the semi-finals. What a semi-finals and championship it will be, some fantastic teams this year in 3A.
 
I put together a little information about the RPI and how it affected the playoffs. I only looked at Class 1A, 2A, and 3A for the simple reason that the others are a little different in the number of Districts, Teams, etc.

1A had the top 16 RPI teams qualify for the playoffs. 5 teams finished with 9-0 record (South Central Calhoun, Bellevue, Van Meter, Interstate 35 and Dike New Hartford) There were no District Champion ties, All teams with 7-2 records or better made the playoffs. The only team that was 6-3 that made it was Pella Christian. As a side note Pella Christian is the only At-Large 6-3 team to qualify for the playoffs in Class 1A, 2A, or 3A. Pella Christians losses were all to 9-0 teams, that is what saved them. So for the future if you don't plan on winning a district title, falling to 6-3 pretty much will knock you out of the playoffs. 1A pretty much went the best it possibly could have and I feel for the most part the top 16 teams made. I do feel however that there is a chance that none of the top 4 rated teams in the RPI will compete in the semi-finals. Which still means there is some tweaking to.

2A was a mess this year. #12 Clear Lake 7-2 and #14 Waterloo Columbus 7-2 did not make the playoffs. With a 3 Way tie in District 7 it allowed 11 automatic qualifiers with only room for 5 at large teams. There were 4 6-3 teams that qualified (Crestwood, Union, Des Moines Christian, and Williamsburg) There was 1 5-4 team that qualified (Kuemper Catholic) All the 6-3 teams and the 5-4 teams qualified via District Championships or Co-Championships. When the RPI system goes bad it really gets messy. There was only 1 team that was 9-0 in 2A (Prarie City Monroe). I feel 2 of the 4 top teams will make it to the semi-finals.

3A Like 1A was pretty drama free. 3 teams were 9-0 (Xavier, Lewis Central, Solon) 15 of the top 16 teams made the playoffs. All 7-2 teams got in. 2 6-3 teams (Norwalk and Carroll) made it in as district champions. I predict all of the top 4 teams will make it to the semi-finals. What a semi-finals and championship it will be, some fantastic teams this year in 3A.

That is some good analysis. One correction...DM Christian did not make the playoffs, so it appears that in 2A DM Christian and Tipton were the only 6-3 teams not to make it to go along with those 2 7-2 teams that didn't make it.

On to the playoffs! Win and advance is the name of the game now!!
 
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Tiptons 3 losses were by an average of 43 points. Meaning they had a very easy schedule otherwise. didn't deserve a postseason bid.
 
I put together a little information about the RPI and how it affected the playoffs. I only looked at Class 1A, 2A, and 3A for the simple reason that the others are a little different in the number of Districts, Teams, etc.

1A had the top 16 RPI teams qualify for the playoffs. 5 teams finished with 9-0 record (South Central Calhoun, Bellevue, Van Meter, Interstate 35 and Dike New Hartford) There were no District Champion ties, All teams with 7-2 records or better made the playoffs. The only team that was 6-3 that made it was Pella Christian. As a side note Pella Christian is the only At-Large 6-3 team to qualify for the playoffs in Class 1A, 2A, or 3A. Pella Christians losses were all to 9-0 teams, that is what saved them. So for the future if you don't plan on winning a district title, falling to 6-3 pretty much will knock you out of the playoffs. 1A pretty much went the best it possibly could have and I feel for the most part the top 16 teams made. I do feel however that there is a chance that none of the top 4 rated teams in the RPI will compete in the semi-finals. Which still means there is some tweaking to.

2A was a mess this year. #12 Clear Lake 7-2 and #14 Waterloo Columbus 7-2 did not make the playoffs. With a 3 Way tie in District 7 it allowed 11 automatic qualifiers with only room for 5 at large teams. There were 4 6-3 teams that qualified (Crestwood, Union, Des Moines Christian, and Williamsburg) There was 1 5-4 team that qualified (Kuemper Catholic) All the 6-3 teams and the 5-4 teams qualified via District Championships or Co-Championships. When the RPI system goes bad it really gets messy. There was only 1 team that was 9-0 in 2A (Prarie City Monroe). I feel 2 of the 4 top teams will make it to the semi-finals.

3A Like 1A was pretty drama free. 3 teams were 9-0 (Xavier, Lewis Central, Solon) 15 of the top 16 teams made the playoffs. All 7-2 teams got in. 2 6-3 teams (Norwalk and Carroll) made it in as district champions. I predict all of the top 4 teams will make it to the semi-finals. What a semi-finals and championship it will be, some fantastic teams this year in 3A.

Clear Lake really to got screwed. They were 5-1 vs. in-class teams and won by about 37 points/game. Mount Vernon was another RPI victim. They were 4-1 in-class and won their last 4 games by an average of 41 points/game. 3 of Mount Vernon's 4 loses were to 3A teams that all finished in the top 19 of BC Moore's 3A poll (#5, #14 and #19).

Clear Lake was #6 and MV #8 in the final BC Moore poll. I believe that 2A is where the RPI flaws show up the most because it has the most teams that play uneven schedules. Mount Vernon played 4 3A schools in ND while some schools played all 1A or A schools. You can't have scheduling variations like that and then use the same rating system to decide who is a better team. RPI might work alright in the bigger and smaller classes, but the ones in the middle will continue to have very good teams left out of the playoffs.
 
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Tiptons 3 losses were by an average of 43 points. Meaning they had a very easy schedule otherwise. didn't deserve a postseason bid.

Totally agree. I was only presenting the facts that DMC and Tipton were only 6-3 teams in 2A not to make it and definitely didn't deserve to be in based on their own loses as well as a very weak Opponents Record, so strength of schedule overall was not very impressive.

In 1A, North Linn was the only 6-3 team that didn't make it (again not making a case for them to be in the playoffs) and they would've needed an Opponents Record of probably close to .6000 to even have a shot, so again makes the case for scheduling tougher non-district opponents...or does it? Hmmm...that will be the real debate in another year when the IHSAA reclassifies and redistricts and creates the new schedules.
 
It is a riddle, if you play up or play a difficult ND and the rest of your district is bad you better win all the ND games. There is no benefit to playing up and losing other than you may improve. You will see a significant change in teams request list.
 
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It will be interesting when they redistrict after next year. Will they look at RPI and try to even out schedules? There were some pretty weak schedules this year.
 
The problem is, and has been mentioned a team can have a weak schedule and still have a decent RPI, a class A team that is 8-1 is usually much worse then a 3A team that is 2-7, but according to RPI the class A 8-1 team is a tougher game.
 
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Mount Vernon can only blame themself because of their Forfeit to West Delaware. Lance should know better having coached that long as well as being a former ad. It is not a new rule.
 
Mount Vernon can only blame themself because of their Forfeit to West Delaware. Lance should know better having coached that long as well as being a former ad. It is not a new rule.
The West Delaware win would still have left MV out of the playoffs. Actually a WD win and another win vs one of the 3A schools they played in ND would still have left MV sitting in the same spot as Clear Lake. They could have been 3-1 vs 3A teams and 4-1 vs. 2A schools and still missed the playoffs. Tell me how that is anywhere close to a good way to do things.
 
The West Delaware win would still have left MV out of the playoffs. Actually a WD win and another win vs one of the 3A schools they played in ND would still have left MV sitting in the same spot as Clear Lake. They could have been 3-1 vs 3A teams and 4-1 vs. 2A schools and still missed the playoffs. Tell me how that is anywhere close to a good way to do things.

A 7-2 MV team would most likely be in. The math would say they finish with an RPI of around .5894 which would put them ahead of Greene Co and behind Spirit Lake because MV's Opponents Record is much stronger than Clear Lake's.

Last year, if they would've stuck with 7 districts/champ & runner-up qualify/2 at-large and MV & Clear Lake finish as runner's up like they did this year, then they both would be in...and then someone would be complaining because MV got in with a 5-4 record and Spirit Lake at 7-2 might be out because they finished 3rd in their district & maybe misses out on an at-large pick. Or even more complaining would've happened using last year's system if Albia at 4-5 overall this year but tied for 2nd in their district gets in as the runner-up, while any other team with a winning record misses out.

Can there be...and hopefully there will be...some tweaks to the PRI and playoff qualification system, I think we all certainly hope so. However, there is no perfect system. Some will say last year's system is better than this year's system. Some will say this year's system is better than the past. Some will say let's make these changes in the future to make it better, so they will make changes, and then something will happen and some will say why can't we have the "old" system back.

Personally, I hope somehow they take into consideration when a team plays UP or DOWN in classification and it is my hope they take into consideration the margin of victory in some way. A 1 point win is not the same as a 30 point win. And playing most teams in a larger classification than yourself is not the same as playing most teams in a smaller in classification than your own team. But this would be back to something very close to what playoff qualification was like prior to 1992 when we had the old "points system", so who knows. Only time will tell.

On to the playoffs!
 
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The problem is, and has been mentioned a team can have a weak schedule and still have a decent RPI, a class A team that is 8-1 is usually much worse then a 3A team that is 2-7, but according to RPI the class A 8-1 team is a tougher game.
Come on lol you can’t be serious! 100 percent disagree with this statement
 
It would be interesting to see them play. One game situation vs. a full season schedule. I don't think it is 100% ridiculous to think that though.
Now if 5-4 would be said I would say okay but 2-7 no. The top A schools and top 1a schools Pretty much same level so you say the top 1a schools would have trouble beating a 2-7 3a?
 
Now if 5-4 would be said I would say okay but 2-7 no. The top A schools and top 1a schools Pretty much same level so you say the top 1a schools would have trouble beating a 2-7 3a?

Too many variables, how are they doing ND Schedules, district teams are in. There have been some really good A-8-1 teams and then some that are 8-1 due to who they play. Same with the 3A teams. I think it is far closer than 100% ridiculous.
 
Too many variables, how are they doing ND Schedules, district teams are in. There have been some really good A-8-1 teams and then some that are 8-1 due to who they play. Same with the 3A teams. I think it is far closer than 100% ridiculous.
Oh I agree there is some 8-1 teams in class a that are only 8-1 because of a laughable schedule (bgm for one). Just saying I’d much rather play a 2-7 class 3a or 2a team than a most 8-1 or 7-2 class a teams
 
I would definitely want a 9-0 or 8-1 any class team. Barely matters if you even win anyway, Pella Christian is the best example of that, 3 losses to 9-0 teams and 1 win vs a 8-1 team. PC win or 8-1 Oskaloosa didn’t even matter, they could have lost that game been 5-4 and still have made the playoffs. Too much reward for who you play instead of how well you play.
 
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I would definitely want a 9-0 or 8-1 any class team. Barely matters if you even win anyway, Pella Christian is the best example of that, 3 losses to 9-0 teams and 1 win vs a 8-1 team. PC win or 8-1 Oskaloosa didn’t even matter, they could have lost that game been 5-4 and still have made the playoffs. Too much reward for who you play instead of how well you play.

The variable is in how your district does in ND. If they don't do well then you better win those ND games. I wouldn't be requesting to play up 2 classes or even one. Maybe play one of those 7-2, 8-1 teams a class down and get a win.
 
The variable is in how your district does in ND. If they don't do well then you better win those ND games. I wouldn't be requesting to play up 2 classes or even one. Maybe play one of those 7-2, 8-1 teams a class down and get a win.

I can just about guarantee you that if this system stays the same there will be no teams requesting to play up in the next cycle. There is no benefit. Playing better competition doesn't pay off if you lose those ND games and don't make the playoffs.

If you are 100% sure you can win your District then there is nothing to worry about, but nobody can say that. The top goal for every team each year is to make the playoffs, and requesting weak ND games will be the norm.
 
It is a riddle, if you play up or play a difficult ND and the rest of your district is bad you better win all the ND games. There is no benefit to playing up and losing other than you may improve. You will see a significant change in teams request list.
unfortunately that won't happen until AFTER next season. Those with tough ND schedules need to figure out ways to win - Those will be their first playoff games of the year.
 
Mepo played 3 2A teams. They were a combined 9-18. Their respective districts were 46-62 with both district champions at 6-3. Then they played Class A Pekin who went 5-4 and didn’t play too tough of a non-district schedule. There’s an example of weak non-district but mostly playing up a class.
 
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unfortunately that won't happen until AFTER next season. Those with tough ND schedules need to figure out ways to win - Those will be their first playoff games of the year.

Yep. The State really put some teams in tough spots and set others up quite well. By setting the schedules they now have more control over who qualifies than they ever did before.
 
Team A plays 8-1 playoff team
A 2A Up a class 1-8 team whose only victory is against an 0-9 up a class last in RPI team

The 2A, up a class 0-9 team last in RPI team from above

A A class, Down a class 5-4 team, non playoff.

A 2A Up a class 3-6 teams whose 3 wins came against teams that were 2-25.

Team B plays 5-4 out of playoffs

A 3A 2 classes 9-0 team ranked #1 or 2. Defending State Champion. Playing this team, up 2 classes now equals Team A's 4 ND opponents win total.

A 2A up a class 1-8 team whose only win was against a 3A team.

A 1A same class 6-3 playoff team whose 3 losses all came to playoff teams including #1 RPI team a class up and two 9-0 same class teams.

A 2A class up 6-3 playoff team.

I get that you need to win games, but the state did a pretty poor job in this time frame. I will take Team A's schedule and take my chances, you can afford a district loss, your players more than likely stay healthier. More kids get to play developing depth going forward, etc. I know sour grapes but the boy$ in Boone controlled this one well.

Interesting fact on this a Team C played the following
A 3A, two class up 8-1 team
A 1A class 9-0 team
A 1A class 5-4 team who has been to 8 straight finals
A 2A class 9-0 team with the #1RPI in 2A

A - Mediappolis
B - Regina
C - Pella Christian

I am sure there are lots of variables but on the surface it looks like the schedules are slanted some. Perhaps an attempt to reduce the multiplier conversation a bit.
 
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Hasn’t Regina been playing a tougher non-district schedule before this year? Teams don’t 100% control their non-district opponents. And the State can’t control how good a team will be, injuries, transfers etc. They could put rules in place where a each team can only play a certain number of teams from each class or stick to your class only (not going to happen). There’s weakness in every playoff format and isn’t necessarily fair to everyone since schedules aren’t 100% the same. Someone is always going to complain.
 
Personally, I hope somehow they take into consideration when a team plays UP or DOWN in classification and it is my hope they take into consideration the margin of victory in some way. A 1 point win is not the same as a 30 point win.

If you add the points variable in, then you also need to account for the amount a team should win by, right? Because, if unranked Team A plays #1 ranked Team B and Team A wins but only by 1 point, that is of course a great win. But in the "win by points" situation, it looks like a bad win and they get dinged for it, despite knocking off the #1 ranked team. And you wouldn't reasonably expect unranked to beat #1 by 30 would you?

This, along with playing up/down, just adds way too many variables.
 
Hasn’t Regina been playing a tougher non-district schedule before this year? Teams don’t 100% control their non-district opponents. And the State can’t control how good a team will be, injuries, transfers etc. They could put rules in place where a each team can only play a certain number of teams from each class or stick to your class only (not going to happen). There’s weakness in every playoff format and isn’t necessarily fair to everyone since schedules aren’t 100% the same. Someone is always going to complain.

Completely agree, they have been playing up but in a different playoff set up. If they win in ND it isn't a concern. People have a decent idea of who will do what in the upcoming year or two. Injuries occur but the odds of injury go up if you are playing full games each week against teams that don't go both ways(NTTIAWWT) as much. There aren't many 2-7, 7-2 swings. Mepo is a good team and always tough but their path was significantly easier this year. To look at how Regina and PC were scheduled this year does raise an eyebrow in comparison to some of the public schools. The reality is in the past Regina was good enough to play that schedule, good enough to overcome some 'interesting' district assignments and move on. This year they didn't win enough and they are regrouping and working for next year.
 
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There is no perfect way to do the system. In class opponents are figured fairly accurately. People are saying no one will play up a class but I think it pays off. PC played Oskaloosa who is 8-1 in Class 3A and PCM who is rated #1 in 2A. Lost to PCM, Van Meter and also to I35 (district game). 3 losses and still made it in the top 8. My guess is that they were sure they would win the district so who cares about ND but it paid off for them to schedule good ND games up a class. But I do think there needs to be a little tweak when playing up or down a class.
 
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If you add the points variable in, then you also need to account for the amount a team should win by, right? Because, if unranked Team A plays #1 ranked Team B and Team A wins but only by 1 point, that is of course a great win. But in the "win by points" situation, it looks like a bad win and they get dinged for it, despite knocking off the #1 ranked team. And you wouldn't reasonably expect unranked to beat #1 by 30 would you?

This, along with playing up/down, just adds way too many variables.

I think that it will cut down on teams wanting to challenge themselves. No benefit and there isn't an ideal solution.
 
The RPI is a flawed system. It can't be used to evaluate teams on an equal basis. There are too many variables when playing across classes and a schedule not made by the schools themselves. You can't argue that.

There are tweaks that could be made that might make it better, but it will not fix it. The real problem is the number of teams allowed in the playoffs. If the State wants the best 16 teams in the playoffs, which is what they keep saying, then you have to take more than 16. NO system is good enough to get the right 16 out of 16. I know everyone has an opinion on how many and all of that, but in the end we are talking about adding 1 WEEK to the season. Whether it is 24, 32 or somewhere in between, teams need to be added and a workable schedule needs to be figured out.

The Coaches Association together with the AD Association proposed a plan last year to the State for a 9 week season with 32 teams in the playoffs. Week 1 would have remained the same and the title games would have been done before Thanksgiving and there would have been at least 5-6 days between games. The State completely rejected it with basically no conversation.

The last 3 years in 2A have shown that there are a lot of teams that can play for a State Title...
- 2015 - Mount Vernon finished 2nd in their District and played in the Title game.
-2016 - Union finished 2nd in their District and played in the Title game.
-2017 - Union and Williamsburg are the Wildcard teams. One of them got in on an alphbetical tie-breaker. They met in the Dome and Williamsburg played in the Title game.

I haven't done the math, but I am guessing some of those teams would not have made the playoffs this year under the RPI system and they all ended their year in THE DOME! The system needs to allow for at least runner-up teams to be in. There is no way to know if a District is going to be loaded when they are set up. Even then there will be a 3-way tie somewhere that could knock a deserving team out. 16 is not enough teams to safely say we get all the deserving teams in. By adding teams you may get a few that aren't deserving, but I would much rather have a few non-deserving teams in the field, so NOT 1 deserving team is left out.
 
16 teams are by far enough teams in the playoffs. 12 is enough. I can guarantee no team out of the top 12 will play for the title. Who really thinks the bottom 4 that make it have a chance? They do not. If you go to 32 then 17-32 will have less of a chance. Either take them all or none. If everyone is complaining about the 16 teams, then play 7 regular season games and take everyone to the playoffs.
Then fans can't say we made state when they only got selected to the 16 teams. The only ones that make state are the ones that make the Dome. That is how it is in every other sport.
 
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Team A plays 8-1 playoff team
A 2A Up a class 1-8 team whose only victory is against an 0-9 up a class last in RPI team

The 2A, up a class 0-9 team last in RPI team from above

A A class, Down a class 5-4 team, non playoff.

A 2A Up a class 3-6 teams whose 3 wins came against teams that were 2-25.

Team B plays 5-4 out of playoffs

A 3A 2 classes 9-0 team ranked #1 or 2. Defending State Champion. Playing this team, up 2 classes now equals Team A's 4 ND opponents win total.

A 2A up a class 1-8 team whose only win was against a 3A team.

A 1A same class 6-3 playoff team whose 3 losses all came to playoff teams including #1 RPI team a class up and two 9-0 same class teams.

A 2A class up 6-3 playoff team.

I get that you need to win games, but the state did a pretty poor job in this time frame. I will take Team A's schedule and take my chances, you can afford a district loss, your players more than likely stay healthier. More kids get to play developing depth going forward, etc. I know sour grapes but the boy$ in Boone controlled this one well.

Interesting fact on this a Team C played the following
A 3A, two class up 8-1 team
A 1A class 9-0 team
A 1A class 5-4 team who has been to 8 straight finals
A 2A class 9-0 team with the #1RPI in 2A

A - Mediappolis
B - Regina
C - Pella Christian

I am sure there are lots of variables but on the surface it looks like the schedules are slanted some. Perhaps an attempt to reduce the multiplier conversation a bit.
 
16 teams are by far enough teams in the playoffs. 12 is enough. I can guarantee no team out of the top 12 will play for the title. Who really thinks the bottom 4 that make it have a chance? They do not. If you go to 32 then 17-32 will have less of a chance. Either take them all or none. If everyone is complaining about the 16 teams, then play 7 regular season games and take everyone to the playoffs.
Then fans can't say we made state when they only got selected to the 16 teams. The only ones that make state are the ones that make the Dome. That is how it is in every other sport.
Lol no it’s not! Every sport takes 8 teams to state the dome would only be 4 teams. So now you are still having different standards than other sports. It’s just fine at 16 teams
 
As much as I would like to state my home town of Clear Lake was screwed, it doesn't suss out that way. Carroll Kuemper at 5-4 was still the district champ under any reasonable protocol after handing Greene County their only loss. Clear Lake went 1-2 against playoff qualifiers, but their other six wins came against teams with a combined 12-42. If they had played up against Webster City instead of Waverly-Shell Rock, maybe they are 8-1 and overcome a weak SOS to qualify at 8-1. Playing a struggling Mason City team every year does not help now that RPI plays into making the playoffs. A 4A team that consistantly goes 0-9/1-8 is an anchor on their RPI going forward.
 
Lol no it’s not! Every sport takes 8 teams to state the dome would only be 4 teams. So now you are still having different standards than other sports. It’s just fine at 16 teams
PLAYOFFS?! PLAYOFFS?!
That is not state, that is playoffs. Woo Hoo you made playoffs. What is the big deal. That puts you in the top 3rd of your class. No honor in that. We have become too much of a society of participation trophies. No one should make a big deal for just making playoffs. There are 4 classes with more teams since fewer school combine in other sports. There are 6 classes in football.
 
PLAYOFFS?! PLAYOFFS?!
That is not state, that is playoffs. Woo Hoo you made playoffs. What is the big deal. That puts you in the top 3rd of your class. No honor in that. We have become too much of a society of participation trophies. No one should make a big deal for just making playoffs. There are 4 classes with more teams since fewer school combine in other sports. There are 6 classes in football.

Do you know what is amazing? The generation that complains about the 'participation' awards is the generation who looked at their little league kids, decided to give them ribbons, trophies and orange slices and now complains about how it turned out.
 
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