5-10 years from now, will the IAHSAA add classes, remove classes, or leave it the exact same on the high school football field? What will they do? What should they do?
5-10 years from now, will the IAHSAA .......
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I don't think it's going to change. No way they remove a class (that's a solid chunk of change in gate/concession being thrown away in the playoffs), and Class A is weak enough as it is in most years. There's always a small handful of teams that are really good, and then the rest usually aren't very good at all.
They've already set a precedence for shrinking classes to keep Class A at a legitimate number to justify a 32-team playoff field. The number of 11-man programs will continue to shrink as more rural districts consolidate, with many current Class A schools dropping to 8-man to take the place of the programs that disappear.
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The reality is that the IAHSAA doesn't control how many classes there are, but it's the coaches and AD's that do. My prediction is that in the next 5 years, there will be enough coaches/AD's vote to drop off Class A. Some of the schools will join 1A, while many will go down to 8-man.
What benefit is there for those schools/coaches? I mean, why would an AD at a school like, say Gilbert, want to vote to get rid of Class A? The more classes there are, the more watered down the field is for every class. I doubt there will be many schools lining up to make the competition tougher every year. There's not much benefit for most schools in doing so, and hurts more programs than it'll help, IMO.
That actually is a pretty solid counter point.
However, does anyone really think the IAHSAA would would allow a vote for something like this? I think Class A lives just for $. Was it 2-4 years ago when they sent more teams to Class A because it was dying? Unless there are even more consolidations between small schools (which may happen), the association won't do it unless they are forced. Too much $ to give up with playoff revenue.
I definitely don't see them letting all that money go away. That's 31 games in the playoffs. Say 800 total people showed up on average to those games (which I think is VERY conservative). That's just under $200k. That's not a number to sneeze at on its own, but I'm very confident that the actual number is much higher.
This post was edited on 8/5 10:12 PM by tm3308
This post was edited on 8/5 10:12 PM by tm3308
In terms of the overall talent throughout the state, they should have probably cut Class A. But as you mentioned when breaking down $, they'll keep it. Hell, they may even add a 11-Man or 8-Man class. I'd say that is more probable than anything, regardless of what schools continue to disappear.
I'll chime in here (...and I typed this before I saw all the new posts in this thread from today, fwiw
).
I do think it's possible that we see another class added on, but it will most likely either come from the top, or in 8-man.
You look at both ends of the spectrum, starting in 4A. The talent gap is continuing to expand between some of the largest and smallest schools, but you also have the expanding communities like Ankeny splitting into a new school and Iowa City getting a new school, and there's talk of another new school going up in the Des Moines suburbs. I think it's possible if the suburb cities continue to grow and are in need of new school districts that 4A could break up as more larger schools form. With that said, this would be something that is MUCH further down the road than the 5-10 years Luke posted.
The other thing to consider is that many of the small schools are either consolidating (as Prairie Valley and Southeast Webster have done), or are dropping down to A and 8-man. There are 62 teams in Class A and 64 in 8-man.
If small schools continue to consolidate, this will make for fewer teams and thus make adding another class, at least at the lower levels unnecessary.
However, if 8-man becomes over-saturated with schools with declining enrollment, who either won't or can't consolidate but still want to field a sports team, then we could possibly see 8-man go to two different divisions. If, hypothetically speaking, 8-man ever grew to 80 teams, I think the State would strongly consider the option of two divisions for 8-man football (since it's a separate entity from 11-man anyways). Either that or they will encourage teams (if they can) to opt into a sharing agreement (which is probably something they'd do before they'd ever let 8-man grow to 80 teams....though there were 70 in 2012). I know Whiting, one of the programs that helped restart 8-man football in Iowa, is gonna be sharing with West Monona, at least for football.
So it's possible, yes, that we could see another class added, but not within the next 5-10 years unless enrollment for the smaller schools becomes a bigger issue AND enough schools drop to 8-man as opposed to consolidating or enter into sharing agreements (or choose to play 11-man, as some 8-man sized schools do).
This post was edited on 8/5 11:00 PM by DarkThunder#61
I do think it's possible that we see another class added on, but it will most likely either come from the top, or in 8-man.
You look at both ends of the spectrum, starting in 4A. The talent gap is continuing to expand between some of the largest and smallest schools, but you also have the expanding communities like Ankeny splitting into a new school and Iowa City getting a new school, and there's talk of another new school going up in the Des Moines suburbs. I think it's possible if the suburb cities continue to grow and are in need of new school districts that 4A could break up as more larger schools form. With that said, this would be something that is MUCH further down the road than the 5-10 years Luke posted.
The other thing to consider is that many of the small schools are either consolidating (as Prairie Valley and Southeast Webster have done), or are dropping down to A and 8-man. There are 62 teams in Class A and 64 in 8-man.
If small schools continue to consolidate, this will make for fewer teams and thus make adding another class, at least at the lower levels unnecessary.
However, if 8-man becomes over-saturated with schools with declining enrollment, who either won't or can't consolidate but still want to field a sports team, then we could possibly see 8-man go to two different divisions. If, hypothetically speaking, 8-man ever grew to 80 teams, I think the State would strongly consider the option of two divisions for 8-man football (since it's a separate entity from 11-man anyways). Either that or they will encourage teams (if they can) to opt into a sharing agreement (which is probably something they'd do before they'd ever let 8-man grow to 80 teams....though there were 70 in 2012). I know Whiting, one of the programs that helped restart 8-man football in Iowa, is gonna be sharing with West Monona, at least for football.
So it's possible, yes, that we could see another class added, but not within the next 5-10 years unless enrollment for the smaller schools becomes a bigger issue AND enough schools drop to 8-man as opposed to consolidating or enter into sharing agreements (or choose to play 11-man, as some 8-man sized schools do).
This post was edited on 8/5 11:00 PM by DarkThunder#61
Adding a second division in 8-man is by far the most likely change that we might see. I don't see a split in 4A; 2/3 of the teams already in 4A make the postseason because there are only 46 teams. Splitting that pie into even smaller pieces wouldn't work. But 8-man has serious potential to keep growing as enrollments decline in rural districts, so creating two divisions might make sense down the road a ways.Originally posted by DarkThunder#61:
I'll chime in here (...and I typed this before I saw all the new posts in this thread from today, fwiw).
I do think it's possible that we see another class added on, but it will most likely either come from the top, or in 8-man.
You look at both ends of the spectrum, starting in 4A. The talent gap is continuing to expand between some of the largest and smallest schools, but you also have the expanding communities like Ankeny splitting into a new school and Iowa City getting a new school, and there's talk of another new school going up in the Des Moines suburbs. I think it's possible if the suburb cities continue to grow and are in need of new school districts that 4A could break up as more larger schools form. With that said, this would be something that is MUCH further down the road than the 5-10 years Luke posted.
The other thing to consider is that many of the small schools are either consolidating (as Prairie Valley and Southeast Webster have done), or are dropping down to A and 8-man. There are 62 teams in Class A and 64 in 8-man.
If small schools continue to consolidate, this will make for fewer teams and thus make adding another class, at least at the lower levels unnecessary.
However, if 8-man becomes over-saturated with schools with declining enrollment, who either won't or can't consolidate but still want to field a sports team, then we could possibly see 8-man go to two different divisions. If, hypothetically speaking, 8-man ever grew to 80 teams, I think the State would strongly consider the option of two divisions for 8-man football (since it's a separate entity from 11-man anyways). Either that or they will encourage teams (if they can) to opt into a sharing agreement (which is probably something they'd do before they'd ever let 8-man grow to 80 teams....though there were 70 in 2012). I know Whiting, one of the programs that helped restart 8-man football in Iowa, is gonna be sharing with West Monona, at least for football.
So it's possible, yes, that we could see another class added, but not within the next 5-10 years unless enrollment for the smaller schools becomes a bigger issue AND enough schools drop to 8-man as opposed to consolidating or enter into sharing agreements (or choose to play 11-man, as some 8-man sized schools do).
This post was edited on 8/5 11:00 PM by DarkThunder#61
The smallest school districts really won't have much of a choice but to consolidate. The Legislature phased out budget guarantees for school with declining enrollment and prohibits districts from running in the red, so it becomes very difficult to provide a comprehensive high school curriculum. Sharing a superintendent only saves about $60K. The cost savings of sharing higher-level math/science teachers with a neighboring district gets eaten up by transportation costs. Also, the legislature kept financial incentives for whole-grade sharing intact. So the school boards of these small districts, as much as they want to maintain their local high school, they increasingly see the writing on the wall and a new wave of consolidation is under way.
If you think about it, the state is maxed at the total number of high schools as it has. Sure the suburban cities may add a high school here or there, but that number is just going to be negated by a consolidation somewhere else. At least theoretically. We're sitting at what? 340 or so schools now? Assume 20 consolidate to form 10, now we're at 330.
So if they keep the 700 BEDS threshold, maybe in 10 years or so there may be 50-52 schools in 4A. That would be 46 now, another in Iowa City, another in Waukee, another in Johnston, maybe another in Marion/Cedar Rapids and Dallas Center-Grimes and Norwalk moving up. This doesn't even account for the possibly that Davenport Assumption, Sioux City Heelan, Dubuque Wahlert and/or Cedar Rapids Xavier ever elected to play up in their metro areas again, although that is a lot more unlikely.
So yeah, 4A could get bigger. But remember, if and when Dallas Center-Grimes and Norwalk eventually get to that level, their void will have to be filled from 2A into 3A. And so on down the line, filling and refilling from below. Add the consolidation factor, which will take away from the bottom, Class A, and much of it could be gone. My guess is in ten years, there will be an even smaller group of Class A and a larger group in 8-man.
4A, 3A and 2A will go one like they've been going, a 700 BEDS-floor then 56 per class. 1A will be the new lowest level of 11-man, swallowing what remains of what was Class A and becoming the largest class as far as number of schools, probably around 72 schools. A great deal of the smaller former Class A schools will drop to 8-man. There'll be two classes. Figure a total of about 94-96 schools will be playing 8-man. The new BEDS threshold for 8-man will be somewhere around 140. The top 48 in BEDS from there will become 8A, the smallest after that will become 8AA.
The state will continue to whore out the playoffs with 32 teams per class. The number of 11-man classes will drop by one, but we'll gain an 8-man class. This means there'll still be six championship games at the Dome and 186 total playoff gates for the IHSAA to make ca$h on.
This post was edited on 8/6 8:39 AM by screwloose
So if they keep the 700 BEDS threshold, maybe in 10 years or so there may be 50-52 schools in 4A. That would be 46 now, another in Iowa City, another in Waukee, another in Johnston, maybe another in Marion/Cedar Rapids and Dallas Center-Grimes and Norwalk moving up. This doesn't even account for the possibly that Davenport Assumption, Sioux City Heelan, Dubuque Wahlert and/or Cedar Rapids Xavier ever elected to play up in their metro areas again, although that is a lot more unlikely.
So yeah, 4A could get bigger. But remember, if and when Dallas Center-Grimes and Norwalk eventually get to that level, their void will have to be filled from 2A into 3A. And so on down the line, filling and refilling from below. Add the consolidation factor, which will take away from the bottom, Class A, and much of it could be gone. My guess is in ten years, there will be an even smaller group of Class A and a larger group in 8-man.
4A, 3A and 2A will go one like they've been going, a 700 BEDS-floor then 56 per class. 1A will be the new lowest level of 11-man, swallowing what remains of what was Class A and becoming the largest class as far as number of schools, probably around 72 schools. A great deal of the smaller former Class A schools will drop to 8-man. There'll be two classes. Figure a total of about 94-96 schools will be playing 8-man. The new BEDS threshold for 8-man will be somewhere around 140. The top 48 in BEDS from there will become 8A, the smallest after that will become 8AA.
The state will continue to whore out the playoffs with 32 teams per class. The number of 11-man classes will drop by one, but we'll gain an 8-man class. This means there'll still be six championship games at the Dome and 186 total playoff gates for the IHSAA to make ca$h on.
This post was edited on 8/6 8:39 AM by screwloose
You are right, the big schools won't care very much. However, the smaller schools in Class A and 1A especially will get tired of driving 2-3 hours for their district games.
The school my kids attend currently shares sports with another district
and there is a move amongst both administrations and school boards to
increase that to whole grade sharing, with the idea of it leading to
consolidation down the road. It is getting met with great resistance
from a few very vocal opponents in one of the affected towns. What those
few are ignoring is what you posted (and I highlighted). Their idea is to separate completely, which would cause them to become on of the smaller 1A schools (they are currently sub 450 in total enrollment, right at 100 BEDS) in most sports and, likely, 8-man in football. They are ignoring the fact that they wouldn't be able to field half of the teams due to declining enrollment and declining participation rates, which they think is because there is too much competition at their current level (a small 2A team including the sports sharing).
They are also ignoring the fact that at some point in the not too distant future, they would be forced to consolidate and most likely with the nearest district, which is already 3A, instead of joining with their first choice (who they already share sports with). It's a freaking mess, and we are seriously considering open enrolling our two youngest (twins going into 8th grade) into another district because of it.
To the point of the thread, given the IAHSAA and their proclivity for doing what makes the the most money, I can't see them dropping a class unless they are basically forced to because of school sizes, even more moving to 8-man, etc. If enough A schools make the move to 8man, I could see them finally dropping Class A and splitting 8 man into two classes, but that would be the biggest change I can envision for the foreseeable future.
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