3A Playoff matchup pred

[fmclonefan]

So, had an hour to kill this morning waiting to get off of work. What better way to waste time then to look at potential playoff matchups! Was thinking of the basic rules from last year and then main ones I remember are that in the first round of the playoffs teams must be within 100 miles of each other and #1's won't play other #1's. Rematches are attempted to be minimized, but is inevitable.

I tried to make it quicker for myself, so I used Luke's predictions as to who would make the playoffs and seeds that he posted yesterday. I did this last year as well, but this year is much more difficult due to the teams that look to be making it and basic geography. Keokuk is way down there. NW Iowa teams from district #1 pretty much have to play each other. Glenwood is way down there. If this was indeed how the district standings shake down, there will have to be many more district rematches in round #1 then last year. But, I did this quickly this morning and could have some errors in there.

Spencer @ SB-Lutton
BH/RV @ SC Heelan
Ballard @ Webster City
Algona @ Carroll
Humboldt @ Gilbert
Dub Wahlert @ Assumption
Maquoketa @ Independence
Waverly - SR @ CR Xavier
Decorah @ West Delaware
Oskaloosa @ Dallas Center-Grimes
Carlisle @ Bondurant-Farrar
Grinnell @ Norwalk
Creston @ Pella (98 miles)
Glenwood @ Harlan
Keokuk @ Washington
CCA @ Solon

Of course, this may not be anything close to what we have come actual playoff time, but is fun to project as of now.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I took a stab at this the other day as well. My predictions for district finishes don't line up with Luke's, but I know things aren't going to go exactly as anybody predicts over the final four weeks, so - for entertainment purposes only, right?

You were pretty close with the playoff rules, although the first-round travel limitation is 125 miles. The state will try to prevent rematches as much as they can in the first two rounds, and district champs can't play each other until the quarterfinals. That travel limitation is a bear for some teams: Glenwood has only 4 other 3A non-district schools in the entire state available, while Crestwood has 6. BHRV has only one (Algona)! The Comets are almost certainly locked into a first-round district rematch whenever they make the playoffs.

Here goes with my (probably wildly inaccurate) first-round lineup:

4s @ 1s
Greene County @ Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Spencer @ Webster City
Dubuque Wahlert @ West Delaware
Decorah @ Xavier
Keokuk @ Davenport Assumption
(D-5 rematch - although I could have had Keokuk @ Xavier, Decorah @ West Delaware and Wahlert @
Assumption, but I have to have a rematch in D-3 with the 3s @ 2s already, so ...)
Grinnell @ Pella
Chariton @ Bondurant-Farrar
Creston @ Glenwood (D-8 rematch)

3s @ 2s
BHRV @ Heelan (D-1 rematch)
Carlisle @ Carroll
Crestwood @ Independence (D-3 rematch)
Clear Creek Amana @ Solon
Maquoketa @ Washington
Algona @ Gilbert
Harlan @ Norwalk
Ballard @ Dallas Center Grimes

 

[fmclonefan]

125 miles makes it better. Thanks for the clarification on that. The 125 mile limit is going to be pushed with several match ups this year, I think.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Oh, and by the way, as we were discussing possible quarterfinal teams in a thread last week ... looking at my potential qualifiers and outcomes in the first two rounds, I'm still thinking its a real possibility we'll see West Delaware at Assumption and Xavier at Pella in that third round. It just seems very likely Pella goes east once they get to those final 8 teams, and that sets up two really good matchups on the east side.

 

[fmclonefan]

You may very well be correct. Pella did last year in the quarterfinals as well as they played Washington. Who knows, they may be on a collision course again this year. Would be the third year in a row they would play in the quarters if that happens. Washington is going to be a tough out.

I would hate to see Xavier and Pella play in the quarterfinals. Would be a dome-worthy game, but that is the way it goes some years. But, lots of football to be played before then. This is about the time of year when injuries seem to creep in which can do in a team pretty quickly.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Great job, silver and fmclone. Injuries are a killer. Dub. Wahlert is down to their fourth QB in the last five games, with Xavier, Solon and Assumption coming up. Next man in.

 

[Cyclone1968]

Is there a true East / West divide anymore? At this point BC Moore has 10 of the top 15 teams in the east side. Could the state send Pella West to beef up the West half of the state?

 

[fmclonefan]

You know, the state can do whatever the heck they want to. I really don't know what all they take into consideration beside what was mentioned above. Would they try to keep "top" teams from having to meet before the dome? My answer would be no. In other sports it doesn't seem to make much difference as "top" teams meet before state all the time.

The ratings are east heavy at this point. There is an east-west division in that two east(ish) and two west(ish) teams make it to the dome; geography dictates this. In saying that, Pella or other central Iowa teams could be thrown into the SW Iowa match ups, but don't know if that would happen.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Yup. It all depends on who gets in and who survives. Geography alone ends up pitting the NW and SW teams against each other in the early rounds, which whittles them down more and limits the options as to who can play whom. Is it possible Pella gets matched against, say, Creston or maybe even Harlan? Sure, it's possible ... but if the state has a choice between a Ballard or Gilbert playing someone from the east vs Pella, it's likely going to be Pella. Bondurant-Farrar and Pella, that may be a little bit more of a toss up as to who gets the eastern matchup, but again ... it all depends on who are the last eight squads left.

 

[BFJUSTICEBIGBLUE]

This weeks game could make it a little clear. Bondurant farrar vs Gilbert @Gilbert this week after this is next week Bondurant-farrar faces Ballard at Ballard and then Newton at home and the Last game is a Non-District against Winterset @Winterset. Gilbert and Bondurant-farrar will be a runing game. P.S Jarrid Clark didn't play last week against Benton. He the runing back but They have 3 runing backs Everyone knows one of them #40. who is 6'2 to 6'3 215lb. BF hads the Wide recivers that have a little bit more game time. Plus Their a assiant coach for BF that has have Gilbert number. He was or is the West marshall. that he DC for them.