3A Playoff Cruncher, ver. 1.0

[KidSilverhair]

With three football games left in the regular season, somebody with too much time on their hands (me, I guess, although I don't feel like I have that much time) can run through the possibilities left and start to figure out how the high school playoffs might align. I'm not sure why I think it's more apt to do it with three games left instead of four; four just seems like way too many variables, while three is just a bit too many.

Anyway, here's a look at how I think things might shake out in Class 3A. All predictions are tentative. Many of the teams I list as "out" of the playoffs already might technically still have an outside shot, should they get in a multiple-team tie that has to go to the points tiebreaker. I might also still win the Powerball someday. Please, no wagering!


DISTRICT 1

1. Sergeant Bluff-Luton 7-0
2. Heelan, Sioux City 5-2 (head-to-head over Storm Lake)
3. Storm Lake 5-2
4. Spencer 4-3
5. Spirit Lake 3-4
6. Algona 2-5 (head-to-head over Humboldt)
7. Humboldt 2-5
8. Le Mars 0-7

Le Mars has been eliminated from the playoffs. Several teams can be counted out based on this coming Friday's results: A Heelan win over Algona eliminates Algona; a win by SB-L over Humboldt eliminates Humboldt; the loser of Spirit Lake at Storm Lake is also out.

BIG GAMES LEFT: Spirit Lake at Storm Lake this week; Spencer at Storm Lake Oct. 13; Storm Lake at SB-L Oct. 20.


DISTRICT 2

1. Dallas Center-Grimes 7-0
2. Boone 6-1
3. Webster City 5-2
4. Ballard 4-3
5. Perry 2-5 (head-to-head over Gilbert)
6. Gilbert 2-5
7. Greene County 1-6
8. Iowa Falls-Alden 0-7

Perry, Greene County, and Iowa Falls-Alden have already been eliminated (Gilbert has a slight chance, as they still play DC-G, but they are eliminated this week if DC-G defeats IF-A). A Boone win over Ballard this week eliminates Ballard.

BIG GAMES LEFT: Boone at DC-G Oct. 13; Webster City at Boone Oct. 20.


DISTRICT 3

1. Xavier, Cedar Rapids 7-0
2. Waverly-Shell Rock 6-1
3. Decorah 5-2
4. Benton 4-3
5. Independence 3-4
6. Charles City 1-6
7. South Tama 1-6
8. Vinton-Shellsburg 1-6

Benton is already out of playoff contention (they'd lose every possible tiebreaker). Any loss by Independence takes the Mustangs out. A Waverly-Shell Rock win over Xavier Friday knocks out Charles City, while a Xavier win eliminates Vinton-Shellsburg and a Decorah win over South Tama knocks out South Tama.

BIG GAMES LEFT: Waverly-Shell Rock at Xavier this Friday could decide the district champion.


DISTRICT 4

1. West Delaware 7-0
2. Assumption, Davenport 6-1
3. Wahlert, Dubuque 5-2
4. Marion 4-3
5. Clear Creek-Amana 3-4
6. Center Point-Urbana 2-5
7. Central DeWitt 1-6
8. Maquoketa 0-7

Central DeWitt and Maquoketa are out of the playoffs. An Assumption victory over CPU this Friday will end CPU's playoff hopes.

BIG GAMES LEFT: Wahlert at West Delaware this Friday; West Delaware at Marion Oct. 13, Marion at Assumption Oct. 20.


DISTRICT 5

1. Solon 7-0
2. Oskaloosa 6-1
3. Washington 5-2
4. Mt. Pleasant 4-3
5. Ft. Madison 3-4
6. West Burlington/ND 2-5
7. Fairfield 1-6
8. Keokuk 0-7

Everybody here is still technically alive for the playoffs, but who's a technician when it comes to football (plus Ft. Madison, Fairfield, and Keokuk are all so far behind with point differentials that they pretty much have zero hope at this time)? The loser of the Fairfield at Ft. Madison game Friday is done; Ft. Madison is done even if they win out, should Oskaloosa defeat Washington Oct. 13. A Solon victory over Mt. Pleasant Friday mathematically eliminates Mt. Pleasant, while an Oskaloosa win over Keokuk eliminates Keokuk.

BIG GAMES LEFT: Oskaloosa at Washington Oct. 13 will probably decide second place. They are very evenly matched, it appears; I give a very slight edge to Oskaloosa.


DISTRICT 6

1. Pella 7-0
2. Norwalk 6-1
3. Carlisle 5-2
4. Nevada 3-4 (head-to-head over Bondurant-Farrar)
5. Bondurant-Farrar 3-4
6. Grinnell 2-5 (head-to-head over North Polk)
7. North Polk 2-5
8. Knoxville 0-7

Knoxville, Grinnell, and Bondurant-Farrar are out of the playoffs. Either a Pella win or a North Polk loss eliminates North Polk.

BIG GAMES LEFT: Norwalk at Pella this Friday probably decides the district title; Norwalk at Carlisle Oct. 20 could be a game for second place.


DISTRICT 7

1. Harlan 7-0
2. Glenwood 6-1
3. Winterset 5-2
4. Denison-Schleswig 4-3
5. Carroll 3-4
6. Atlantic 2-5
7. Creston OM 1-6
8. ADM 0-7

ADM, Carroll, and Creston are all out of playoff contention. A Harlan win or Atlantic loss eliminates Atlantic.

BIG GAMES LEFT: Harlan at Winterset this Friday; Winterset at Glenwood Oct. 13; Denison-Schleswig at Winterset Oct. 20 (yep, Winterset really has control of their destiny).



PLAYOFF QUALIFIERS: District champions SB-L, DC-G, Xavier, West Delaware, Solon, Pella, Harlan; Second place finishers Heelan, Boone, Waverly-Shell Rock, Assumption, Oskaloosa, Norwalk, Glenwood.

WILD CARD POOL: The 5-2 teams - Storm Lake, Webster City, Decorah, Wahlert, Washington, Carlisle, Winterset. Using the 17-point differential as it currently stands, that would put Winterset and Carlisle in as wild-card teams (Carlisle and Wahlert have the same differential, but Carlisle would get the alphabetical order, I'm pretty sure).

FIRST ROUND POSSIBLE MATCHUPS:

• Glenwood at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
• Waverly-Shell Rock at West Delaware
• Carlisle at Xavier
• Assumption at Solon
• Oskaloosa at Pella
• Winterset at Dallas Center-Grimes
• Boone at Norwalk (I think this would be the right site, if it's alphabetical starting with D, which I believe is correct)
• (edit: originally forgot to add Heelan at Harlan)

 

[PNation]

Good breakdown you forgot Heelan at Harlan in your pairings.

As for the wildcard it wouldn't surprise me to see an upset of those possible teams

 

[KidSilverhair]

Oops! You're right about Heelan at Harlan. I'll edit to add that in. I got distracted by all the central Iowa qualifiers, and I was in a hurry, too.

Of course the last three weeks aren't going to play out exactly as I have here (if it does, time to head to Vegas and let it all ride), but how unusual would it be for each and every district to have a 5-2 team in play for a wild card spot?

And just to clarify the alphabetical order procedures between the wild-card selections and the home fields: the IHSAA regular season manual says for breaking ties for wild-card selections, they'll use reverse alphabetical order starting with "D," so D, then C, then B and so on. That would put Carlisle ahead of Wahlert, Dubuque in determining which team got a wild card. For home field, it's usually the opposite order (regular alphabetical order, in this case), which, if they still start at "D," would mean Norwalk gets a home field over Boone.

These could be subject to change. I know last year's regular season manual said they would start with a letter (L, or J, I don't remember) - but then the post season manual came out and they'd changed which letter to start with. Growing pains with using the system of changing where to start in the alphabet, I suppose - somebody must have forgotten they'd picked a letter already.

 

[stickman80]

Nice work kid!

I don't sense bias in your breakdown that often messes up other posters.

 

[BHCrusader2010]

Well done

 

[KidSilverhair]

Aw, thanks, you guys! I enjoy doing this, and I'm glad you're getting something good out of it.

A couple of other things to add for this week: While I was focusing on who might get knocked out of the playoff race Friday, there's a few games that can lock up (or nearly lock up) a playoff spot already. Class 3A is pretty strong across the top, so nobody is in position to secure a district title yet (I think Xavier clinched their district in Week 7 last year, and Pella wasn't far behind), but we can focus on a couple of districts where the playoff participants are almost figured out.

In District 2, if Boone, Dallas Center-Grimes, and Webster City all win Friday (and they should), they'll be the only three teams left in the district with a shot at the playoffs. Everybody else will be eliminated. Ballard needs to defeat Boone Friday to keep their hopes alive.

In District 3, the winner of Waverly-Shell Rock and Xavier locks up a playoff spot. Since they both would be heavily favored in the last two weeks, it's likely that the winner Friday wins the district and the loser takes second. Likely, I said - not guaranteed. But the winner is in the playoffs for certain.

And that's really all we can figure out for sure. In District 1 a Sergeant Bluff-Luton win guarantees them no worse than a 5-2 record, but there's still four other teams who could also get to 5-2. Likewise in District 4, with four teams behind West Delaware who could theoretically get to 5-2, and in District 5, with Oskaloosa and Washington still within range of Solon (even West Burlington still mathematically would be in play, but a Solon win Friday knocks Mt. Pleasant out of the running). In District 6 Pella and Norwalk face off at the top of the district, with the winner getting in really good position, but there's still Carlisle and Nevada lurking with playoff hopes. In District 7 we'll find out if Winterset is for real when they play Harlan in a battle of district leaders, but again, Glenwood and Denison-Schleswig are right there, too.

 

[Altybon]

Here something bondurant farrar at Carlisle the freshman game is cancelled make me wonder if the two schools talk to each other.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Here something bondurant farrar at Carlisle the freshman game is cancelled make me wonder if the two schools talk to each other.

... What?

 

[fmclonefan]

Well done Kid. Hard to make picks with 3 weeks left. Thanks for laying all the info out there. That's why you get paid the big bucks.... or just our admiration!

 

[ronsss]

thanks for the interesting synopsis and it was fun going over the possiblities. the 2017 season has quickly proceeded to fast for me and i sure wish i could see some to the games in person. i will probably order the dvds on harlan this year, and will see most of the teams in that district

 

[westside rules]

Wow what a turn around for Harlan, I remember someone saying they may run the table after the opening loss to CBLC. I would like to see a Harlan vs Heelan match up in the playoffs, just like the old days.

 

[ronsss]

Wow what a turn around for Harlan, I remember someone saying they may run the table after the opening loss to CBLC. I would like to see a Harlan vs Heelan match up in the playoffs, just like the old days.

harlan sot of a opposite of what they were last year. they have mat hoc (div 1 harlanite) who played at missouri helping with the defense....iback foss is having a great year, behind that huge offensive line, and they are huge. the #qb who has yet played is about to have his cast removed, and 2nd string qb and starting receiver sears is about to have his cast removed....bladt hopes to have the team they hoped for by playoff time. its sure looks like a heelan vs harlan , unless something drastic happens, which i doubt

 

[GatorBait1988]

DISTRICT 6

1. Pella 7-0
2. Norwalk 6-1
3. Carlisle 5-2
4. Nevada 3-4 (head-to-head over Bondurant-Farrar)
5. Bondurant-Farrar 3-4
6. Grinnell 2-5 (head-to-head over North Polk)
7. North Polk 2-5
8. Knoxville 0-7

Knoxville, Grinnell, and Bondurant-Farrar are out of the playoffs. Either a Pella win or a North Polk loss eliminates North Polk.

BIG GAMES LEFT: Norwalk at Pella this Friday probably decides the district title; Norwalk at Carlisle Oct. 20 could be a game for second place.

I'm so confused.....I thought Pella lost???

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Correct, Pella is 5-1.

Kid’s post is a prediction of how he believes teams will fare in district play. He has Pella going 7-0 in district.

 

[BHCrusader2010]

harlan sot of a opposite of what they were last year. they have mat hoc (div 1 harlanite) who played at missouri helping with the defense....iback foss is having a great year, behind that huge offensive line, and they are huge. the #qb who has yet played is about to have his cast removed, and 2nd string qb and starting receiver sears is about to have his cast removed....bladt hopes to have the team they hoped for by playoff time. its sure looks like a heelan vs harlan , unless something drastic happens, which i doubt

More football to play but Heelan vs Harlan would be a fun first round game. Heelan is finally getting better. Qb change and now play makers getting healthy so just don't depend on Clark all the time every play. Harlan would be favored due to coaching advantage but Heelan is as talented as any 3a team in the state.