2023 Season

[UCKights87]

Let’s start this thread since the forum seems kinda dead.

Don’t know much outside of my corner of Iowa but 1a ball up here is coming to a good start. My Unity Knights picked up a good win against our conference(ex?) rival West Sioux last week 5-1, but tonight we lost to last years state runner up, Western Christian, 0-4. Honestly feel like my knights could’ve won 4-0 ourselves but a few mental lapses on offense and defense proved too much. I’m sure we can turn it around when it really matters in districts.

1a is a little small this year with the new classes so don’t be surprised if my Knights pull something off in May and you see them in Des Moines in July.

Sioux center is also lucky they’re finally moving up a class. WC seemed to have their number these past few years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if my knights take beat them next week when we play them as revenge for them knocking us out in the districts last year.

 

[privateer13]

Great to hear from the western part of the state. Who are the teams to watch from the west? Any surprise teams?

 

[DCAHawk]

I haven't watched much film on teams from around the state, but it seems like it's really difficult to gauge who it's really good and who the pretenders are in 1A at this point in the season.

 

[DCAHawk]

@cidhawkeye yep, it is dead. Any other questions?

 

[cidhawkeye]

@cidhawkeye yep, it is dead. Any other questions?

Just one more, what is your question referencing?

 

[privateer13]

I think we know who has a good chance in our own area. The substate matchups will be interesting. Seems to be a larger group of 1a teams on the eastern side.

 

[hawkeyetillidie]

Only know about two teams in the rankings....and again this year, Wloo Cbus is vastly overrated. Unless there just aren't many good teams in the state?

 

[Pinehawk]

Only know about two teams in the rankings....and again this year, Wloo Cbus is vastly overrated. Unless there just aren't many good teams in the state?

How good is Gladbrook-Reinbeck this year? Quality wins over AP and Waterloo Columbus to start the year.
Better than last year? I think I'd put them in the top 5 at this point.

 

[hawkeyetillidie]

How good is Gladbrook-Reinbeck this year? Quality wins over AP and Waterloo Columbus to start the year.
Better than last year? I think I'd put them in the top 5 at this point.

Also a nice win over North Fayette Valley, I would say they are worthy of top 5. Didn't lose a ton from last year's team, who missed state by a game.

 

[MepoDawg#]

1A Substate pairings will definitely be interesting. Will they go more of conferences in SE Iowa or break them up? The far SE Substate is terrible. And the Iowa City area has better teams but in the past they’ve kept them separate although ND was down here before and is now 2A and average.

We’ll see how Mepo plays as they’re young. My son decided to go back out this year and is playing goalkeeper.

 

[DCAHawk]

Sounds like west liberty soccer is up to their classy ways.

 

[privateer13]

Big Catholic School tourney this weekend who is favored?

 

[MepoDawg#]

Big Catholic School tourney this weekend who is favored?

Toss up? Assumption/Regina?

 

[Pinehawk]

Sounds like west liberty soccer is up to their classy ways.

I was told a WL player came in late on the Beckman keeper and broke his nose and jaw. Had surgery and is likely done for the season.

I see WL has 10 pk attempts on the season, among the most in the state. I sure hope the ref assignor puts their best crew on this West Liberty vs Regina game this Friday. Someone strong enough to see through some of the gamesmanship that will occur.
This should be a State level game and some really good soccer.

Coming off that game into the Catholic School Tournament 14 hours later will be tough for Regina.
You‘d have to think Assumption is the clear favorite, but should be some competitive games with some quality teams.

 

[rc1963]

Big Catholic School tourney this weekend who is favored?

I'd have to say Assumption is the strong favorite. Regina pulling Wahlert as the first game of the day after having WL the night before is going to be tough.

Lots of interesting teams to see in this one. Could be a race for second.

 

[rc1963]

I was told a WL player came in late on the Beckman keeper and broke his nose and jaw. Had surgery and is likely done for the season.

So, that was a backup keeper who played against Regina Monday? (sorry, no Beckman stats up yet on Bound) He got a workout and performed really solidly. Didn't have to make amazing saves, but had to make a lot of them.

 

[Pinehawk]

So, that was a backup keeper who played against Regina Monday? (sorry, no Beckman stats up yet on Bound) He got a workout and performed really solidly. Didn't have to make amazing saves, but had to make a lot of them.

I was told WL knocked two Beckman keepers out of the game, one with the serious injury. So, yes that was the backup who will probably start the rest of the season for them.

 

[hawkeyetillidie]

Big Catholic School tourney this weekend who is favored?

Can they all lose? 😁

 

[Pinehawk]

Regina defeats West Liberty 1-0. Very physical game, must have been 5 yellow cards. WL once again ran over an opposing goal keeper, and got carded for it. Luckily he wasn’t hurt.
The refs did a great job in a tough match to officiate, plenty of diving and hard slide tackles.
It was a very entertaining game between two really good teams.

 

[DCAHawk]

Regina defeats West Liberty 1-0. Very physical game, must have been 5 yellow cards. WL once again ran over an opposing goal keeper, and got carded for it. Luckily he wasn’t hurt.
The refs did a great job in a tough match to officiate, plenty of diving and hard slide tackles.
It was a very entertaining game between two really good teams.

4 yellows. 2 for each team.

 

[MepoDawg#]

Substate assignments on Wednesday?

 

[rc1963]

Assumption won the Catholic schools tournament. Much to the disappointment of @hawkeyetillidie they didn't all lose. Not a lot of surprises other than Regina took Assumption to PK shootout. Hard to take much away given regina had played 4 games in 20 hours. Neither team subbed much. Appears regina had at least one starter out. Surprising result to me.... thought Assumption would win by 2 or 3. Although the regina backline and mids are sneaky good (if only they could figure things out up top).

I've not taken the time to watch west branch games yet. Their scores are odd to me. Anyone think they are legit? Will they get a 1 seed based on their only tough games coming in the last week?

I try not to take too much from score history. Without knowing the circumstances (injuries, absent players, coaches trying different ideas) around any given match, it's hard to assess the relative strength against common opponents. On paper, it would appear that both Regina and West Liberty have the upper hand going into their matches next week, but that's why they play the games, right?

I'm not sure when substates are actually set, do they wait until after the 5/12 games? That's not much turnaround time for hosts to get ready to host games on Monday.

So, Here's my too early attempt at substate pairings/seedings, based on last week and today's power rankings (after each team):



1

1 Western Christ 4

2 Unity Christ 18

3 West Sioux 23

4 Kuemper 25

5 East Sac 38

6 LoMa 46



2

1 GR 1

2 Hudson 14

3 Denver 11

4 NFV 20

5 Bellevue 26

6 Postville 39



3

1 DSM Christ 6

2 Beckman 21

3 Col Cath 10

4 Clayton Ridge 37

5 Monticello 35

6 Cedar Val Christ 43



4

1 West Branch 3

2 PoP 13

3 Marquette Cath 28

4 Tipton 40

5 Cascade 44

6 Highland 48



5

1 West Liberty 7

2 Mepo 17

3 Col Comm 30

4 Danville 33

5 Central Lee 41

6 Wapello 47



6

1 Regina 2

2 Pella Christian 12

3 Sigourney 31

4 Hillcrest 36

5 WACO 42

6 Centerville 45



7

1 Treynor 5

2 West Central Valley 9

3 Van Meter 22

4 Garner Hay 24

5 PCM 32

6 Grand View Christ 29



8

1 Underwood 8

2 St Alberts 16

3 Tri-Center 19

4 AHSTW 27

5 Riverside 34

I used last years pairings, dropped out the schools that moved up in the class re-org and tried to slot in new teams geographically. Then shuffled a few around in an attempt to get no substate with more than 1 top 8 team. So, the question about WB would be, IF they dropped both Regina and WL next week, would it drop them out of top 8 (or push someone else lower?) This opens the door for West Central Valley to potentially step in as a substate 1 seed, which would necessitate re-shuffling substate 7.

anyway, FWIW

 

[rc1963]

Substate assignments on Wednesday?

That was my question, our posts crossed....

 

[rc1963]

Substate assignments on Wednesday?

It looks like they were posted on Wed of the last week, last year, before the last game (or two) of the regular season.

 

[DCAHawk]

I try not to take too much from score history. Without knowing the circumstances (injuries, absent players, coaches trying different ideas) around any given match, it's hard to assess the relative strength against common opponents. On paper, it would appear that both Regina and West Liberty have the upper hand going into their matches next week, but that's why they play the games, right?

I'm not sure when substates are actually set, do they wait until after the 5/12 games? That's not much turnaround time for hosts to get ready to host games on Monday.

So, Here's my too early attempt at substate pairings/seedings, based on last week and today's power rankings (after each team):



1

1 Western Christ 4

2 Unity Christ 18

3 West Sioux 23

4 Kuemper 25

5 East Sac 38

6 LoMa 46



2

1 GR 1

2 Hudson 14

3 Denver 11

4 NFV 20

5 Bellevue 26

6 Postville 39



3

1 DSM Christ 6

2 Beckman 21

3 Col Cath 10

4 Clayton Ridge 37

5 Monticello 35

6 Cedar Val Christ 43



4

1 West Branch 3

2 PoP 13

3 Marquette Cath 28

4 Tipton 40

5 Cascade 44

6 Highland 48



5

1 West Liberty 7

2 Mepo 17

3 Col Comm 30

4 Danville 33

5 Central Lee 41

6 Wapello 47



6

1 Regina 2

2 Pella Christian 12

3 Sigourney 31

4 Hillcrest 36

5 WACO 42

6 Centerville 45



7

1 Treynor 5

2 West Central Valley 9

3 Van Meter 22

4 Garner Hay 24

5 PCM 32

6 Grand View Christ 29



8

1 Underwood 8

2 St Alberts 16

3 Tri-Center 19

4 AHSTW 27

5 Riverside 34

I used last years pairings, dropped out the schools that moved up in the class re-org and tried to slot in new teams geographically. Then shuffled a few around in an attempt to get no substate with more than 1 top 8 team. So, the question about WB would be, IF they dropped both Regina and WL next week, would it drop them out of top 8 (or push someone else lower?) This opens the door for West Central Valley to potentially step in as a substate 1 seed, which would necessitate re-shuffling substate 7.

anyway, FWIW

That's a pretty good guess. West Central and Treynor would be a tough bracket.

 

[MepoDawg#]

Assignments posted Wednesday, May 4 last year then pairings the following Tuesday. There are some big games after the release date if they do the same this year.

 

[MepoDawg#]

I try not to take too much from score history. Without knowing the circumstances (injuries, absent players, coaches trying different ideas) around any given match, it's hard to assess the relative strength against common opponents. On paper, it would appear that both Regina and West Liberty have the upper hand going into their matches next week, but that's why they play the games, right?

I'm not sure when substates are actually set, do they wait until after the 5/12 games? That's not much turnaround time for hosts to get ready to host games on Monday.

So, Here's my too early attempt at substate pairings/seedings, based on last week and today's power rankings (after each team):



1

1 Western Christ 4

2 Unity Christ 18

3 West Sioux 23

4 Kuemper 25

5 East Sac 38

6 LoMa 46



2

1 GR 1

2 Hudson 14

3 Denver 11

4 NFV 20

5 Bellevue 26

6 Postville 39



3

1 DSM Christ 6

2 Beckman 21

3 Col Cath 10

4 Clayton Ridge 37

5 Monticello 35

6 Cedar Val Christ 43



4

1 West Branch 3

2 PoP 13

3 Marquette Cath 28

4 Tipton 40

5 Cascade 44

6 Highland 48



5

1 West Liberty 7

2 Mepo 17

3 Col Comm 30

4 Danville 33

5 Central Lee 41

6 Wapello 47



6

1 Regina 2

2 Pella Christian 12

3 Sigourney 31

4 Hillcrest 36

5 WACO 42

6 Centerville 45



7

1 Treynor 5

2 West Central Valley 9

3 Van Meter 22

4 Garner Hay 24

5 PCM 32

6 Grand View Christ 29



8

1 Underwood 8

2 St Alberts 16

3 Tri-Center 19

4 AHSTW 27

5 Riverside 34

I used last years pairings, dropped out the schools that moved up in the class re-org and tried to slot in new teams geographically. Then shuffled a few around in an attempt to get no substate with more than 1 top 8 team. So, the question about WB would be, IF they dropped both Regina and WL next week, would it drop them out of top 8 (or push someone else lower?) This opens the door for West Central Valley to potentially step in as a substate 1 seed, which would necessitate re-shuffling substate 7.

anyway, FWIW

Pretty good effort here. Can’t argue at this point.

 

[privateer13]

How close to the rankings will they be? The rankings seem to favor the west side not sure how they will stick to geography.
West Branch seems to be inflated. They really don't have a quality win with a team from the power index. When the do play a quality team the sub state may be set.

 

[Pinehawk]

West Branch goes to Beckman on Friday. That's probably the first decent test they'll get outside of their win over Prince of Peace, which didn't fair well at the Catholic School Tournament.
Regina and West Liberty both go to West Branch in the final week of the season.

 

[MepoDawg#]

West Branch goes to Beckman on Friday. That's probably the first decent test they'll get outside of their win over Prince of Peace, which didn't fair well at the Catholic School Tournament.
Regina and West Liberty both go to West Branch in the final week of the season.

Substate assignments will most likely be set by then.

 

[rc1963]

Substate assignments will most likely be set by then.

Looks like Saturday, May 6 is the magic day for which game are going to count and Assignments are released 5/8:

"c) Substate pairings will be posted on Monday, May 8, 2023.

d) IHSSCA rankings will be used to determine the top one (1) or two (2) seeds in each substate.

e) Remaining seeding will be based on the regular season point average of games played through Saturday, May 7, 2022.

f) After using IHSSCA rankings, remaining team’s seed will be determined on their regular season point average of games played through Saturday, May 6, 2023."

from: https://www.iahsaa.org/manuals/soccer/

 

[DCAHawk]

There will definitely be some upsets come playoff time if these rankings hold close to what they are today. Some big games the rest of this week and weekend could shake things up, potentially for the worse in terms of seeding.

 

[rc1963]

There will definitely be some upsets come playoff time if these rankings hold close to what they are today. Some big games the rest of this week and weekend could shake things up, potentially for the worse in terms of seeding.

Agreed, and it won't be too consequential UNLESS it puts two top 8 teams in the same bracket. The whole point of substate is to try to get the right 8 teams to Des Moines. It sucks when somebody who should be top 8 loses a substate final. We've seen examples of that in other sports as well. Hopefully it means someone who's already a long-shot (a state tourny 8 seed) rather than a legit favorite, is the one who gets left out - no net impact on the ultimate Champion.

 

[privateer13]

Will the state stay true to seeding the top 16? Will 1-8 be #1 and 9-16 be #2?
How can a team who has played no games be ranked in the top 16? (Looking at Mo Valley)

 

[rc1963]

Will the state stay true to seeding the top 16? Will 1-8 be #1 and 9-16 be #2?
How can a team who has played no games be ranked in the top 16? (Looking at Mo Valley)

Manual says they will:

d) IHSSCA rankings will be used to determine the top one (1) or two (2) seeds in each substate.

e) Remaining seeding will be based on the regular season point average of games played through Saturday, May 7, 2022.

f) After using IHSSCA rankings, remaining team’s seed will be determined on their regular season point average of games played through Saturday, May 6, 2023.

• 4 Points for a win over a Class 4A School
• 3 Points for a win over a Class 3A School
• 2 Points for a win over a Class 2A School
• 1 Point for a win over a Class 1A School
• 0 Points for a loss to Class 3A, 2A, or 1A School

Mo Valley is an anomaly - at 0-0, I'm guessing they don't have a team to enter substate (that's why I left them out of my projection) But that's an excellent example of why purely computer generated rankings can be less than indicative of quality. At the very least, they need to do a retrospect each season, after each sport, find where the coaches have complaints about the indications from ELO rank and make changes to the formula to improve it.

 

[MepoDawg#]

Agreed, and it won't be too consequential UNLESS it puts two top 8 teams in the same bracket. The whole point of substate is to try to get the right 8 teams to Des Moines. It sucks when somebody who should be top 8 loses a substate final. We've seen examples of that in other sports as well. Hopefully it means someone who's already a long-shot (a state tourny 8 seed) rather than a legit favorite, is the one who gets left out - no net impact on the ultimate Champion.

Unfortunately it’s all subjective including the algorithm for the rankings. It’s hard to determine the Top 8 100% and there are always chances for upsets. And to add more confusion since the transitive property doesn’t apply to sports, it’s all about matchups and style of play.

 

[DCAHawk]

Unfortunately it’s all subjective including the algorithm for the rankings. It’s hard to determine the Top 8 100% and there are always chances for upsets. And to add more confusion since the transitive property doesn’t apply to sports, it’s all about matchups and style of play.

And I don't think there is a great algorithm to truly calculate SOS given the discrepancies in talent in certain parts of the state. Although at the end of the day, you have to beat the best to be the best. I just don't like the illogical rationale that the state has taken in groupings over the years. There has certainly been bias in the past. At least this formula relies strictly on quantitative data.

 

[DCAHawk]

Unfortunately it’s all subjective including the algorithm for the rankings. It’s hard to determine the Top 8 100% and there are always chances for upsets. And to add more confusion since the transitive property doesn’t apply to sports, it’s all about matchups and style of play.

Btw... have enjoyed watching your boy play soccer and FB over the years.

 

[rc1963]

Unfortunately it’s all subjective including the algorithm for the rankings. It’s hard to determine the Top 8 100% and there are always chances for upsets. And to add more confusion since the transitive property doesn’t apply to sports, it’s all about matchups and style of play.

I'm interested in how an algorithm can be subjective. I mean it's straight forward math. Doesn't it remove subjectivity? I agree that it's not indicative of quality for the reasons you stated, but I don't get how it's subjective.

 

[cidhawkeye]

I'm interested in how an algorithm can be subjective. I mean it's straight forward math. Doesn't it remove subjectivity? I agree that it's not indicative of quality for the reasons you stated, but I don't get how it's subjective.

It does remove it. It’s math. Who gets to decide the subjective part?