1A
- Thread starter IGo42
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Last year the first round had more to do with proximity than seeding. After that it went with seeding. The reason I said 1 and 8 is because they are way out there compare to the other districts. Maybe 2 and 7 reach into their area but not many do.
I just wish there was more transparency. I mean if they are going to be sister districts, determined from the beginning, let everyone know. If it's going to be the best best 1v4 they can pair that's reasonable geographic, tell us.
Interesting breaking news for 1A-5 - The Radio Iowa poll came out and put Wilton as their #10. I haven't seen them, but what I've heard is they are too 1 dimensional on offense and not a strong enough defense to go the distance. That poll has snubbed WB from the start, so not a huge surprise they are absent. Just really curious that Wilton, no no-one else's radar comes into their poll.
They don't have complete districts play each other like they did around 2010, they have 1st round pairings that will be 1v4 and 2v3, then after the first round the with have 4 pods of 4 teams to get to the dome.
That is why I think the first round is more based on proximity. After that they will try to get the top 4 teams to the dome. Half the districts are east of I35 and half West. However, after this last weekend probably only 2 teams west of I35 will be in the top 10 (Underwood and AHSTW).
Kind of looking at the teams that I think will make it and spot I think they will make it in, I think for the first round you will have mainly district 1 vs district 2 and district 7 vs 8, but then 3,4,5,6 can be all mixed up. Honestly district 7 could be mixed with some of those four as well but then there would be no one for district 8 to play.
Well, that is strange, because transfers used to be a very big deal to some of the WB posters on this board, who now conspicuously look the other way as it has become the identity of their program.
The IHSAA should go ahead the drop the transfer rule, if it doesn't apply anymore.
This is really good. 1A east is weak this year. Based on results thus far of take underwood
I wish there was a way to get more matchups across I-35, even if they aren't head-to-head, at least some comparables. Seems like we never really know much until the dome, and then you have a certain "any-given-Sunday" factor.
Still waiting for Gazette to post their poll, the other 3 I track are out......
I am not sure who you see west other than Underwood and AHSTW? South Hamilton has not shown well and they get beat by Roland Story.
District 1 is a lot weeker than in the past. I would say Underwood is the class favorite now but No one else in the west will give them a run for their money.
Rankings are out:
| Gazette | Register | IA Football | Radio Iowa | |
1 | GC | GC | GC | GC |
2 | MFL | MFL | MFL | MFL |
3 | U'wood | Regina | U'wood | U'wood |
4 | Regina | U'wood | WB | Regina |
5 | Denver | W Columbus | PC | Denver |
6 | Sum Fred | PC | E Sac | Sum Fred |
7 | AHSTW | Denver | DNH | Treynor |
8 | Treynor | Sum Fred | Denver | AHSTW |
9 | Wilton | Treynor | Sum Fred | S Hamilton |
10 | S-K | AP | AHSTW | Wilton |
I spoke my peace a long time ago. I've moved on to bigger and better things.
Some refer to it as "life"
I thought that IAFootball was fairly accurate until they put PC at #3. GC showed they should not be that high but that only dropped them to #5.
Well. they're the new kids on the block for covering Iowa HS Football. So, I guess they're trying to find those upsets, those teams that are getting overlooked and make bold predictions. If you look at it from their perspective it does you no good, in establishing a name for yourself, if you just re-shuffle the Gazette and Register top 10. So, with that logic, you're going to swing an miss some times and you might hit a home run but ultimately they want people to talk and to do it on their platforms, right?
The only reason I'm tracking polls is to see if, at the end of the year, did anyone really nail it? Ultimately the only indicator is maybe the top 4. Anybody finishing out of that group is either, "no one cares" or "but what if they would have met up with" conversations.
As for IAFootball, I just appreciate all the effort they're putting into coverage, interviews, player profiles, they're putting out multiple releases every day. I thought their pre-game previews (on Youtube) were good and the after game wrap up could really turn into something if they can get more to participate.
I have not followed any rankings that close, but from what I have heard, it sounds like they put forth more work and effort into their rankings than any of the others. I think the register is just 1 guy who gives his opinion.
Or find them on fb, insta or YouTube, but that website will link to their YouTube
I can tell you with full confidence, WB is NOT the #4 team in the state right now.
Seeing the 1A rankings make me think of Harry Doyle: "just a bit outside"
Obviously, rankings mean nothing. There's only one that goes in the record book. But rankings through the season are interesting. As a ranker, are you trying to assess the relative quality of teams right now? Or pick where they will finish? Is there any difference between these and what (short of injury) would cause someone to differentiate between those two things? I like to go back and see who got it right after the end of the season. Unfortunately, you can only really assess maybe the top 4, did they get the right Champion from the beginning? Did they get the right dome teams? After that, they're all "also rans" so maybe it only matters if you had them in your top 10. I suspect that's why IAFootball is publishing a top 16.
WB is interesting, all bias aside. Is it a team that has gotten as good as they are going to get? I truly think they have to building blocks to continue to get better through the season, will they?
Wilton is an interesting add to the discussion. Looking at the stats, seems pretty key man dependent. But you can compete with that if your defense keeps you in games. I'm looking forward to those Wilton v Regina and WB games.
In the west, I still don't know what to think, seems like not much will change until playoffs. Treynor looks strong, but is that a case of who they've played? They've put up a lot of points, including against, what should be a pretty good Clarinda squad. They always have very athletic teams.
WB is interesting, all bias aside. Is it a team that has gotten as good as they are going to get? I truly think they have to building blocks to continue to get better through the season, will they?
Wilton is an interesting add to the discussion. Looking at the stats, seems pretty key man dependent. But you can compete with that if your defense keeps you in games. I'm looking forward to those Wilton v Regina and WB games.
In the west, I still don't know what to think, seems like not much will change until playoffs. Treynor looks strong, but is that a case of who they've played? They've put up a lot of points, including against, what should be a pretty good Clarinda squad. They always have very athletic teams.
Very interested to see District 1A-3 over the next few weeks. Sumner has Dike, MFL and Denver over the next 3 weeks - brutal. Who will rise to the top?
KMA Radio does a great job as well. Especially the western half that the others ignore. They ventured into state rankings / All-State teams not too long ago. No complaints on my end.
I went back and pulled in KMA, they must be their own rankings as they are slightly different. One nice thing about how they present theirs - they explain why they move/add/drop teams, gives some rational to their listeners/readers
Just for grins, I compiled the 6 polls into one consensus Ranking and then looked at their matchups for this week:
Looks like the Close or interesting games should be:
Waterloo Columbus at Hudson - could determine who stays in the rankings
DNH at Sumner Fredricksburg - Home team favored
Underwood at AHSTW - A home win could flip the script and re-establish them in the rankings - An Underwood loss would drop them but by how much?
MFL at AP Maybe the biggest matchup this week - AP is 62% Pass and averages 2 INTs per game - Will AP go to the air strong? Will MFL even attempt a pass? Could be interesting who gets an early advantage in this one
E Sac at Emmetsburg should be a good battle
Pleasantville @ PC - Did the computer get this wrong? Some of the prior games should point to a home team win
Good luck tonight everyone - Hope everyone stays healthy in week one of district play
| Wk 3 | 11-Sep | 11-Sep | 12-Sep | ||
| Gazette | Register | IA Football | Radio Iowa | KMA | AP |
| GC | GC | GC | GC | GC | GC |
| MFL | MFL | MFL | MFL | MFL | Regina |
| U'wood | Regina | U'wood | U'wood | U'wood | MFL |
| Regina | U'wood | WB | Regina | Regina | Treynor |
| Denver | W Columbus | PC | Denver | S Hamilton | Denver |
| Sum Fred | PC | E Sac | Sum Fred | Sum Fred | ASHTW |
| AHSTW | Denver | DNH | Treynor | Treynor | Wilton |
| Treynor | Sum Fred | Denver | AHSTW | AHSTW | Sum Fred |
| Wilton | Treynor | Sum Fred | S Hamilton | Denver | U'wood |
| S-K | AP | AHSTW | Wilton | PC | Hudson |
Just for grins, I compiled the 6 polls into one consensus Ranking and then looked at their matchups for this week:
| Concensus Ranking | Points | Bound Power Rank (RPI) (1A) | Wk 4 Opponent (Con Rank/Bound Rank) | BC Moore Spread | BCM Win Prob | |
1 | GC | 60 | 1 | E Marshall (-,46) | -39 | 91% |
2 | MFL | 53 | 5 | AP (16,13) | -12 | 66% |
3 | U'wood | 41 | 11 | AHSTW (8,16) | -10 | 64% |
4 | Regina | 38 | 4 | Durant (-,41) | -54 | 97% |
5 | Denver | 27 | 3 | Central Springs (-, 27) | -21 | 77% |
6 | Sum Fred | 23 | 7 | DNH (15,15) | -4 | 55% |
7 | Treynor | 20 | 2 | Red Oak (-,26) | -39 | 91% |
8 | AHSTW | 16 | 23 | U'wood (3,5) | +10 | 36% |
9 | PC | 12 | 8 | Pleasantville (-,16) | +10 | 37% |
10 | S Hamilton | 8 | 21 | W Central Valley (-,35) | -8 | 61% |
11 | Wilton | 7 | 6 | Beckman (-,43) | -55 | 97% |
11 | WB | 7 | 24 | Cascade (-,40) | -21 | 76% |
13 | W Columbus | 6 | 31 | Hudson (16,9) | -1 | 52% |
14 | E Sac | 5 | 12 | Emmetsburg (-.30) | +3 | 54% |
15 | DNH | 4 | 15 | Sum Fred (6,7) | +4 | 45% |
16 | S-K | 1 | 20 | Cardinal (-,44) | -21 | 76% |
16 | AP | 1 | 13 | MFL (2,5) | +12 | 34% |
16 | Hudson | 1 | 9 | W Columbus (13,31) | +1 | 48% |
Looks like the Close or interesting games should be:
Waterloo Columbus at Hudson - could determine who stays in the rankings
DNH at Sumner Fredricksburg - Home team favored
Underwood at AHSTW - A home win could flip the script and re-establish them in the rankings - An Underwood loss would drop them but by how much?
MFL at AP Maybe the biggest matchup this week - AP is 62% Pass and averages 2 INTs per game - Will AP go to the air strong? Will MFL even attempt a pass? Could be interesting who gets an early advantage in this one
E Sac at Emmetsburg should be a good battle
Pleasantville @ PC - Did the computer get this wrong? Some of the prior games should point to a home team win
Good luck tonight everyone - Hope everyone stays healthy in week one of district play
Any major injuries for any of the top teams in 1A? I saw on KWWL Friday Night Heros that the RB from MFL had a cast on his hand, they said he sat out the previous week but played against Aplington-Parkersburg and still carried the ball 9 times for 139 yds and 2 TDs.
Any other injuries that might affect any other playoff bound teams?
Any other injuries that might affect any other playoff bound teams?
When you have 4 different guys with rushing touchdowns, I'm guessing you're less concerned about an injury.
If it's their leading rusher you're talking about, it looks like he still had 30 yards, so they're keeping him running some.
Have not heard of any other injuries
Is it too early for playoff predictions? LOL
I think in 2 weeks most districts will be lined up. It will probably take all 8 weeks for district 3. But district 8 should be next week and so should district 6. I think district 7 can be handed to SH.
So, this week I pulled in the computer generated rankings and next week I'll add the Boys in Boone if they actually get around to publishing them. Knowing them, they'll release week 6 rankings about April 4th...
Anyway, here is the composite of 8 rankings/polls and their upcoming matchups
BC Moore did a pretty good job last week with predictions, the big miss was Pleasantville as a 10 point favorite over PC, that ended up PC by 28 and the second was picking Sumner Fred. by 4 when DNH won by 10.
This week, it looks pretty accurate that Treynor AHSTW could be a close one, at least it feels like it's on AHSTW to pull this one out or drop out of the conversation.
Some of the lopsided ones, I doubt teams will run up those margins overall, but I think GC could roll by more over Columbus.
The Underwood pick is interesting only because I thought the computer could never pick a 100% probability winner.
Anyway, here is the composite of 8 rankings/polls and their upcoming matchups
| Rank | Team | Pts | Bound Power Rank (RPI) (1A) | Wk 5 Opponent (Comp Rank/Bound Rank) | BC Moore Spread | BCM Win Prob |
1 | GC | 78 | 1 | @ W Columbus (15,18) | -22 | 81% |
2 | MFL | 70 | 4 | Sum Fred (7,12) | -29.5 | 88% |
3 | U'wood | 58 | 7 | Shenandoah (- , 33) | -66.5 | 100% |
4 | Regina | 50 | 6 | @ Cascade (- , 43) | -57 | 99% |
5 | Denver | 42 | 2 | AP (15,14) | -30 | 88% |
6 | Treynor | 38 | 6 | @AHSTW (12,20) | -1 | 52% |
7 | PC | 25 | 3 | EBF (- , 35) | -59 | 99% |
8 | DNH | 22 | 8 | Central Spring (- , 32) | -44 | 96% |
9 | Wilton | 16 | 9 | Durant (-, 40) | -58 | 99% |
10 | S Hamilton | 11 | 19 | Nodaway Valley ( - , 47) | -49 | 97% |
11 | WB | 8 | 13 | @ Dyersville Beckman ( - , 41) | -44 | 96% |
12 | Sum Fred | 7 | 12 | @MFL (2,4) | +29 | 12% |
12 | AHSTW | 7 | 20 | Treynor (6,6) | +1 | 48% |
14 | S-K | 5 | 11 | @Pleasantville ( - , 17) | -12.5 | 69% |
15 | W Columbus | 1 | 18 | GC (1,1) | +22 | 19% |
15 | AP | 1 | 14 | @Denver (5,2) | +29.5 | 12% |
15 | Ogden | 1 | 10 | @W W Granger ( - , 34) | +1 | 49% |
BC Moore did a pretty good job last week with predictions, the big miss was Pleasantville as a 10 point favorite over PC, that ended up PC by 28 and the second was picking Sumner Fred. by 4 when DNH won by 10.
This week, it looks pretty accurate that Treynor AHSTW could be a close one, at least it feels like it's on AHSTW to pull this one out or drop out of the conversation.
Some of the lopsided ones, I doubt teams will run up those margins overall, but I think GC could roll by more over Columbus.
The Underwood pick is interesting only because I thought the computer could never pick a 100% probability winner.
I am not sure how there is 100% chance. There is alwys a chance however small it may be. I can see 99% but 100%? Thanks for putting all this together. It is intersting to see the composite. I think BC Moore is still the best ranking when it gets to 100% of the rankings are based on this year's games.
Of the top 10 teams it gets real interesting at the middle to bottom.
I think 1-3 will all be dome teams. #4 will be real interesting to see how that plays out. Not sure who will be paired with who. Plus we also have to look at the alphabet this year. Underwood, SH, Regina, WB and Wilton are all late in the alphabet. But most of those teams will have to play either GC, MFL or Underwood before the dome.
Of the top 10 teams it gets real interesting at the middle to bottom.
I think 1-3 will all be dome teams. #4 will be real interesting to see how that plays out. Not sure who will be paired with who. Plus we also have to look at the alphabet this year. Underwood, SH, Regina, WB and Wilton are all late in the alphabet. But most of those teams will have to play either GC, MFL or Underwood before the dome.
Putting the banter to the side here. How bad is District 5? I think Regina and WB are 1A and 1B vice versa, but the rest of the district looks god awful. I’m not sold on Wilton. Cascade, Dyersville , Durant woof.
Depends how you figure the quality of a district? Top team or 2. 4th place since that is who makes playoffs or last place?
In my opinion (top 3 teams) from worst to best it goes:
D2
D7
D1
D6
D4
D5
D8
D3
In my opinion (top 3 teams) from worst to best it goes:
D2
D7
D1
D6
D4
D5
D8
D3
Grundy Center vs Columbus Catholic
Spartans certainly have a continuity that most teams cannot match. Columbus is a physical team that can speed up with anyone. With the game being in Waterloo tonight (Thursday, Sept 21), I really feel this could be a knock em down drag em out game.
Keys and Questions:
1 - Can Grundy just be Grundy? That's a tough out for anyone
2 - Big Play Sailors. They have a propensity for the big gain, big score. Those can break the psyche of young kids.
3 - Status quo. Grundy looks like a well-oiled machine.
4 - Field conditions. Columbus never seems to mow the grass from what I've seen. Maybe that will slow down the Spartans.
IF Columbus can get some big gains and slow Grundy at the LOS with Knipp and Co, this will be much closer than what BC Moore and most people think.
Grundy wins 27-20, but I would not be surprised if the upset happens. WC has athletes to match anyone.
Spartans certainly have a continuity that most teams cannot match. Columbus is a physical team that can speed up with anyone. With the game being in Waterloo tonight (Thursday, Sept 21), I really feel this could be a knock em down drag em out game.
Keys and Questions:
1 - Can Grundy just be Grundy? That's a tough out for anyone
2 - Big Play Sailors. They have a propensity for the big gain, big score. Those can break the psyche of young kids.
3 - Status quo. Grundy looks like a well-oiled machine.
4 - Field conditions. Columbus never seems to mow the grass from what I've seen. Maybe that will slow down the Spartans.
IF Columbus can get some big gains and slow Grundy at the LOS with Knipp and Co, this will be much closer than what BC Moore and most people think.
Grundy wins 27-20, but I would not be surprised if the upset happens. WC has athletes to match anyone.
GC vs Columbus looks to be the toughest match for both in the regular district season. Grundy’s defense seems to be a bit better than their offense this year tho. With a decent front line but a really good secondary. I think GC 21-Columbus 0 but tied 0-0 at half
Anyone know if Columbus streama their games? Would be great to see.
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