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Husky what’s the Milton path looking like?

I
BKHusky said:
It is weakening at a consistent clip here, but unfortunately weakening in the final approach doesn’t make much of a difference for surge. It will help with catastrophic wind damage at least. Whatever the surge is going to be is pretty much baked in now, just depends on what area gets it the worst.

Katrina officially came onshore after it “weakened” to a mid cat-3. But she was huge and had been pushing water for days already, weakening had no affect on the surge level.
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The surge is loading up. Eye is about 60
Miles offshore, but level gauge at Fort Myers is at +2 feet above median, but it’s low tide. And it’s climbing
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Husky what’s the Milton path looking like?

BKHusky
IrishPokerDog said:
Looks like the eye wall is coming apart
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It is weakening at a consistent clip here, but unfortunately weakening in the final approach doesn’t make much of a difference for surge. It will help with catastrophic wind damage at least. Whatever the surge is going to be is pretty much baked in now, just depends on what area gets it the worst.

Katrina officially came onshore after it “weakened” to a mid cat-3. But she was huge and had been pushing water for days already, weakening had no affect on the surge level.
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Class A Season Outlook

J
PNation said:
Updated for this week

District 1
1. Gehlen
2. MMC-RU
3. Sibley-Ocheyedan
4. HMS

The top two are set, S-O vs HMS for 3/4 BC Moore like S-O

District 2
1. West Hancock
2. Saint Ansgar
3. Newman
4. Lake Mills

This is pretty much set in stone, I did hear that Newman was or is without some kids so that might change something if there were some major upsets?

District 3
1. Wapsie
2. Nashua Plainfield
3. North Tama
4. South Winn

This could come down to a 3 way tie, if that is the case Wapsie or North Tama are probably in the best spot, South Winn vs North Tama is also very important this week. I'm just going with my gut, but it easily could be NP at #1

District 4
1. North Linn
2. Maquoketa Valley
3. Starmont
4. Bellevue

North Linn and Maq Valley is a big game this week and both teams have been playing very well, Starmont vs Bellevue might determine 3/4. You still have Starmont vs Maq Valley and Belleve vs North Linn next week.

District 5
1. Lisbon
2. Pekin
3. Columbus
4. Danville

The top are set, Columbus vs Danville for 3/4 I'll take Columbus is that one

District 6
1. Madrid
2. Mount Ayr
3. Lynnville Sully
4. Wayne

I believe that this is set in stone, unless there are some serious upsets.

District 7
1. AC/CG
2. Earlham
3. Riverside
4. SCC

Earlham vs Riverside for 2/3 this week, I think the rest is set

District 8
1. Woodbury Central
2. Tri Center
3. St. Albert
4. Kingsley Pierson

Woodbury Central vs Tri Center for the title, I like St. Albert to control their own destiny and get the 3 spot, then Kingsley Pierson is in the best spot to get the 4 spot.


Predicted Matchups

Gehlen vs Kingsley Pierson
West Hancock vs HMS
Wapsie vs Bellevue
North Linn vs Danville
Lisbon vs South Winn
Madrid vs Lake Mills
AC/GC vs Wayne
Woodbury Central vs SCC

MMC-RU vs St. Albert
Saint Ansgar vs Sibley Ocheyedan
Nashua Plainfield vs Newman
Maquoketa Valley vs. Columbus
Pekin vs Starmont
Mount Ayr vs North Tama
Earlham vs Lynnville Sully
Tri Center vs Riverside

Predicted Top 4 (at the end) and if they win out

West Hancock
AC/GC
Lisbon
North Linn
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I have posted before and will again. I think everyone is sleeping in Tri-Center.

There is more than a good chance TC beats WC comfortably.

It is so hard to know and compare, but I have a hunch.
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Class A Season Outlook

J
PNation said:
Realistically the games remaining that have an impact on the rankings are.

AC/GC vs Mount Ayr: I would pick AC/GC but is possible for Mount Ayr to win
North Linn vs Maq Valley: If North Linn wins they take the district title, Maq Valley after a puzzling loss to Cascade has looked very good.
Riverside vs Earlham: Everyone loves Earlham, but I think Riverside could get them.
Tri Center vs Woodbury Central: Tri Center has looked better than Woodbury but Woodbury has the big game experience.
Starmont vs Bellevue: I think Starmont is the better team, but did not look good against Postville, so it could be a toss up.

Next Week
Maq Valley vs Starmont: I think the top 3 in this district are pretty close.
North Linn vs. Bellevue: Again I think that Bellevue is a little behind, but who knows.

So I think West Hancock is safe at 1, if AC/GC takes care of business I think they are a safe #2, Saint probably wants North Linn to lose, just so they don't jump two undefeated district champs above them. A team like Maq Valley who isn't ranked could make a big jump if they take care of business the next two weeks against two ranked teams.

If I had to make second round playoff predictions I think I would go with this

Pod 1
West Hancock vs Nashua Plainfield
Gehlen vs Woodbury Central
Pod 2
AC/GC vs Mount Ayr
Tri Center vs MMC-RU
Pod 3
Lisbon vs. Maq Valley
Earlham vs. Madrid
Pod 4
North Linn vs Pekin
Saint Ansgar vs Wapsie Valley

I don't like that there are 3 rematches, but I could see something like this
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Heard that Smith is out for Earlham. That’s a huge blow if true.
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Husky what’s the Milton path looking like?

I
I’ve in the last 24 hours watched the surge projections for our area go from a potentially manageable (for our site) 6-9 foot surge to an 11-15 foot surge....and there are three other homes of friends in the Port Charlotte/Cape Coral area, and another friend ‘s home right in Bradenton. So this one is gonna hurt personally regardless. But I’m grateful I don’t have the issues NC has now nor what’s expected actually out on the gulf shores in the next 24 hours.
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Starting to sound like Urban's program @ UF...

alphatiger08
GwinnettDawg said:
They very well may be dropped very quickly. I’m not defending him blindly but I agree with our resident 5-0 that it just seems…off.
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I agree the charges seem to read worse than the actual report. It’ll be interesting to see what comes of it. Not this dude’s fault necessarily, but these kids don’t really seem to inspire the desire for benefit of the doubt these days.
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Husky what’s the Milton path looking like?

BKHusky
IrishPokerDog said:
Actually no, still got two weeks to close.... the house is in a kinda limbo right now :/
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Well I assume for you guys its good that it hasn't closed if the worst case scenario for Port Charlotte happens.

A few of the models that weaken it really wrap some dry air around the southern side, making it a very north-side heavy storm. It would probably lessen the effects south of the center some if that happens. Might be a saving grace for areas like Port Charlotte.
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Class 1A Season Outlook

M
PNation said:
My thoughts after week 6, not a ton of changes but a few

District 1
1. OABCIG
2. West Sioux
3. Ridge View
4. Hinton

I keep going back and forth for who will get second place in this district, that will be decided this week.

District 2
1. Emmetsburg
2. NW Webster
3. Sioux Central
4. East Sac

Manson NW Webster seems to have taken the 2nd spot with the win over Sioux Central, East Sac and Sioux Central need to play yet to determine 3/4

District 3
1. DNH
2. MFL Mar-Mac
3. Sumner Fred
4. Aplington Parkersburg

I don't see there being any way that this isn't the final standings.

District 4
1. Grundy Center
2. South Hardin
3. Alburnett
4. Hudson

Same with District 4, I think this is all but wrapped up, I thought that South Hardin might have given Grundy a better game then they did, but Grundy is just a machine. I also heard on KWWL that Hudson had a few kids suspended.

District 5
1. Wilton
2. Regina
3. Beckman
4. West Branch

This district is very much still in play, West Branch is probably locked into the 4 spot, but Beckman Regina I am interested in this week, then Regina vs Wilton the next week.

District 6
1. Sigourney Keota
2. Pleasantville
3. Pella Christian
4. EBF

I believe that this is more or less set for how teams will finish barring a major upset.

District 7
1. Woodward Granger
2. South Hamilton
3. Ogden
4. Grandview Christian

W-G vs SH for the district title this week, I think that it is truly a toss up, West Central Valley could make 3/4 a 3 way tie with a win over Ogden.

District 8
1. Treynor
2. AHSTW
3. Underwood
4. Shenandoah

Barring an upset this is the way things will finish, Underwood will be a very good 3 seed, they have played a brutal schedule.

First Round Matchups

OABCIG vs Shenandoah
Emmetsburg vs Hinton
DNH vs EBF
Grundy Center vs Grandview Christian
Wilton vs Hudson
Sigourney Keota vs West Branch
Woodward Granger vs Aplington Parkersburg
Treynor vs East Sac

West Sioux vs Sioux Central
NW Webster vs Ridge View
MFL Mar Mac vs Beckman
South Hardin vs Sumner Fredericksburg
Regina vs Pella Christian
Pleasantville vs Alburnett
South Hamilton vs Underwood
AHSTW vs Ogden

Predicted Top 4 at the End of the Season
1. Grundy Center
2. Dike New Hartford
3. Emmetsburg
4. Wilton

Which if it is these four (or Regina in place of Wilton) you would probably have pods with some travel for teams from the SW part of the state.
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Re district 1, if Ridge View beats West Sioux they have an inside track to #2 with only Maple Valley left. If West Sioux wins it comes down to West Sioux vs Hinton in the final week. West Sioux over Hinton and they get #2 and a Hinton win forces a 3 way tie and you go to the plus or minus 17 calculator with Hinton currently having the best points differential.
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