The Final Deep Dive

[KidSilverhair]

One week left, for all the marbles. I'll be jiggered if I could even start to figure out where the at-larges will come from, or what the first round matchups might be, but heck - that's never stopped me before!

DISTRICT 1 (edited 10/15 to correct a dumb error)

The Storm Lake-Sergeant Bluff/Luton winner wins the district. The loser is second.

At-large possibilities: Heelan with a win.
​

DISTRICT 2

Boone is IN. The game with Webster City decides the district title.
Webster City is in UNLESS they lose to Boone and Gilbert defeats Dallas Center/Grimes.
Gilbert is in IF they beat Dallas Center/Grimes and Boone defeats Webster City.

At-large possibilities: Dallas Center/Grimes with a win; Webster City with a loss and a Gilbert win; Gilbert with a win and a Webster City win.
​

DISTRICT 3

Xavier has won the district title.
Benton has locked down second place.

At-large possibilities: Waverly-Shell Rock with a win over Charles City.
​

DISTRICT 4

This is the only district where the point differential could come into play. That scenario would be West Delaware losing to Maquoketa, Davenport Assumption losing to Marion and Clear Creek/Amana defeating Central De Witt. All four would be tied for the lead at 5-2, which I believe would mean all four get playoff spots and all the other at-large candidates would be out.
Remember, this would require West Delaware losing to Maquoketa, so it's pretty far-fetched.

West Delaware wins the district with a win over Maquoketa. They are in at least a tiebreaker for a playoff spot in any event, EXCEPT if they lose, Assumption beats Marion and Clear Creek/Amana defeats Central De Witt.
Davenport Assumption is in with a win over Marion, or with a loss plus a West Delaware loss.
Clear Creek/Amana is in at least a tiebreaker IF they win and West Delaware loses.
Marion is in (second or a multi-team tie for the district title) IF they beat Assumption.

At-large possibilities: West Delaware and Assumption are at least in the pool if they don't finish first or second; Clear Creek/Amana can make it with a win.
​

DISTRICT 5

Solon has won the district title.
Oskaloosa has locked down second place.
​

DISTRICT 6

Pella has won the district title.
The Norwalk-Carlisle game will decide second place. The loser goes into the at-large pool.
​

DISTRICT 7

The Creston-Carroll winner wins the district, the loser finishes second.

At-large possibilities: Glenwood can get into the pool with a win over ADM.



​

 

[KidSilverhair]

A stab at how things might break down:

DISTRICT 1: Storm Lake 1st, Sergeant Bluff/Luton 2nd. Heelan makes the at-large pool.

DISTRICT 2: Webster City 1st, Boone 2nd. Dallas Center/Grimes makes the at-large pool.

DISTRICT 3. Xavier 1st, Benton 2nd. Waverly-Shell Rock makes the at-large pool.

DISTRICT 4: West Delaware 1st, Davenport Assumption 2nd. Clear Creek/Amana makes the at-large pool.

DISTRICT 5: Solon 1st, Oskaloosa 2nd.

DISTRICT 6: Pella 1st, Norwalk 2nd. Carlisle makes the at-large pool.

DISTRICT 7: Creston/OM 1st, Carroll 2nd. Glenwood makes the at-large pool.

AT-LARGES (with current point differential): Heelan (6.83), Dallas Center-Grimes (3.00), Waverly-Shell Rock (8.17), Clear Creek/Amana (7.67), Carlisle (11.3, which would drop due to the loss to Norwalk to get to 5-2), and Glenwood (7.8). If I had to guess on which numbers would climb the most, I pick Waverly-Shell Rock and Glenwood.


Logical first-round matchups might be:

Sergeant Bluff/Luton at Webster City
Boone at Storm Lake
Waverly-Shell Rock at West Delaware
Davenport Assumption at Solon
Oskaloosa at Xavier
Benton at Pella
Glenwood at Creston (because who else geographically would you pair Glenwood up with?)
Norwalk vs Carroll (I don't know how they'd determine the home team between 2nd place finishers. I guess points, which this week would put it in Carroll but they're pretty close)
​

 

[ugtm]

I'm not into making predictions but I can tell you Boone is good. Bordering really good. They are coming off two bad seasons so I suppose it makes sense that people will believe when they see.

 

[fmclonefan]

Kid, as usual, great job. Think your D1 is off though as Spirit Lake is 3-3 and has no chance of the playoffs. Storm Lake and SBL are guaranteed the top two spots with Heelan getting in the wildcard pool with a victory.

 

[fmclonefan]

"Logical first-round matchups might be:

Sergeant Bluff/Luton at Webster City
Boone at Storm Lake
Waverly-Shell Rock at West Delaware
Davenport Assumption at Solon
Oskaloosa at Xavier
Benton at Pella
Glenwood at Creston (because who else geographically would you pair Glenwood up with?)
Norwalk vs Carroll (I don't know how they'd determine the home team between 2nd place finishers. I guess points, which this week would put it in Carroll but they're pretty close)"

Your first round match-ups do look logical, but I don't like them much as that most likely would be a Pella @ Xavier match-up if they both win in first round. Would be a shame if both teams don't get a chance to get to the dome, but that's the way it goes in sports sometimes.

The question will be if Pella will be an east team or a west team. They could go either way, but most likely will go east. Interestingly, Pella will probably go east and whoever finishes second (and possibly wildcard team) in D6 would probably go west. Obviously, these match ups all depend on the wildcard teams that make it.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Kid, as usual, great job. Think your D1 is off though as Spirit Lake is 3-3 and has no chance of the playoffs. Storm Lake and SBL are guaranteed the top two spots with Heelan getting in the wildcard pool with a victory.

Oops. Spreadsheet trouble. I can blame it on the spreadsheet if I incorrectly entered the Storm Lake-Spitit Lake score, can't I? Stupid Excel ...

Makes District 1 easier, it does. Just like D-7, the Storm Lake-Sergeant Bluff/Luton game decides who is first and who is second. Heelan is in the at-large pool with a win.

 

[La_Fleur]

Do you think the state would really set it up so Pella and Xavier would play in the quarterfinals?

 

[fmclonefan]

I don't think the state really looks at that or cares. The IGHSAU does, but the boys association has shown time and again that they don't.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Your first round match-ups do look logical, but I don't like them much as that most likely would be a Pella @ Xavier match-up if they both win in first round.

At Xavier due to the alphabet, which this year is LAST team alphabetically (starting at J or wherever) hosting. Hmmm.

The tricky thing here is, you'd have three 1st place teams kinda close together in Xavier, West Delaware and Solon. You can't bracket the three of them together; somebody has to go into another bracket with another 1st place team. Do you put West Delaware in a bracket with Waverly-Shell Rock, Webster City and Benton? Then another bracket could be Xavier, Solon, Assumption and Oskaloosa, I suppose. If you went with West Delaware, Assumption, and Benton in a bracket, then you have to choose between Solon and Xavier as the team you're bracketing with central Iowa teams. It's a challenge. Not to mention, it might not be Waverly-Shell Rock and Glenwood that get those at-large spots; could be Carlisle, or Clear Creek/Amana, or Heelan, any of which would shake up the bracketing.

Xavier and Solon are already guaranteed to be 1st place finishers, and it's almost certain West Delaware will be another. There's no way they can all be in the same bracket, so one of them is going to be in a group with teams from further west.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Norwalk vs Carroll (I don't know how they'd determine the home team between 2nd place finishers. I guess points, which this week would put it in Carroll but they're pretty close)
​

I think I got the home team right in this potential matchup of 2nd place teams, but for the wrong reasons. To determine the home team in a playoff contest between two teams with identical district records and placements, the state skips the point differential and goes to the alphabet. This year, they start at J or K or wherever (I can't seem to ever remember), and it's last alphabetical that hosts. So, if it's Carroll and Norwalk both 2nd place and both 6-1 in the district, Carroll is the home team.

Boy, that was a lot of mental energy expended on a situation that probably won't even end up happening, right?

 

[Vroom_C14]

For the alphabetical - the state needs to make teams pick a naming convention and stick with it (for as long as the school is around). No switching each year to up their chances of having a home game.

 

[IOU1]

WSR currently has the best point total of any 4-2 team. So I am using them as a starting point.
Going to guess that WSR beats Charles City by 17...it's a hard fought rivalry game, so who knows if that will happen...but let's assume it does. If it doesn't than the door is open to dozens of scenarios. That would give WSR 66 points. Glenwood, Heelan, CCA can't catch them even with 13 point wins. The domino games in this deal start with Webster City and Boone. Webster wins and those 2 are in. WSR grabs one of the WC spots with the other one going to one of the other 5-2 teams based on points. If Boone wins by 12 or less...things begin to get interesting. A Webster City loss and a Gilbert loss give Webster the 2nd auto slot in D2 via their earlier win over DCG. WC loss by 12 or less AND Gilbert win dumps WC into the at large pool with a point total of 67. NOW...the Norwalk/Carlisle game comes into play. Both of those teams currently have 68 points. A 3 point loss or greater by either team drops them below 65. A 1 point loss by either team puts them at 67 and WSR is out. A 2 point loss by either team leaves them in the at large pool at 66. WSR would hold alphabet tie breakers over everyone mentioned above EXCEPT Norwalk.
Clear as mud???

 

[paxregis]

For the alphabetical - the state needs to make teams pick a naming convention and stick with it (for as long as the school is around). No switching each year to up their chances of having a home game.

They have been doing for years. All schools are listed by the school or coop name. So a school can't use the school name one year and the location of the school first the next.

 

[KidSilverhair]

For the alphabetical - the state needs to make teams pick a naming convention and stick with it (for as long as the school is around). No switching each year to up their chances of having a home game.

Has this been happening? I certainly don't recall a school changing its name to try to game the alphabetical system the IAHSAA uses. I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but I'm not aware of it.

If you go to QuikStats they have all the teams listed in alphabetical order, the way the state figures it. Public schools are generally listed by their town or their district name; private schools seem to be listed by their school name first and the town after that (so you have Cedar Rapids Kennedy and Cedar Rapids Washington, but Xavier, Cedar Rapids. And I say "generally" because you also have Prairie, Cedar Rapids and Valley, West Des Moines, so no there's no tried-and-true method about it).

 

[KidSilverhair]

WSR currently has the best point total of any 4-2 team. So I am using them as a starting point.
Going to guess that WSR beats Charles City by 17...it's a hard fought rivalry game, so who knows if that will happen...but let's assume it does. If it doesn't than the door is open to dozens of scenarios. That would give WSR 66 points. Glenwood, Heelan, CCA can't catch them even with 13 point wins. The domino games in this deal start with Webster City and Boone. Webster wins and those 2 are in. WSR grabs one of the WC spots with the other one going to one of the other 5-2 teams based on points. If Boone wins by 12 or less...things begin to get interesting. A Webster City loss and a Gilbert loss give Webster the 2nd auto slot in D2 via their earlier win over DCG. WC loss by 12 or less AND Gilbert win dumps WC into the at large pool with a point total of 67. NOW...the Norwalk/Carlisle game comes into play. Both of those teams currently have 68 points. A 3 point loss or greater by either team drops them below 65. A 1 point loss by either team puts them at 67 and WSR is out. A 2 point loss by either team leaves them in the at large pool at 66. WSR would hold alphabet tie breakers over everyone mentioned above EXCEPT Norwalk.
Clear as mud???

This is good insight. Now that we're getting to the last week, we can start to sort of figure out where the at-large possibilities might fall.

Dallas Center-Grimes has no chance. Their best possible point total would be 35, and that's less than any other potential at-large team could have. Gilbert's path to the playoffs need them to take second by beating Dallas Center-Grimes and pulling for a Boone win, because they're not going to get an at-large spot. Heelan is most likely out, as well - they'd need a tremendous cascade of results going their way to be one of the two at-larges.

Should Waverly-Shell Rock win by 17, as you say, they'd have 66 points. That puts them ahead of any other potential at-large team with the exception of Webster City (if they lose by 12 or less) and the Norwalk/Carlisle loser (if it's a 1 or 2 point game). Obviously if the Go-Hawks win by less than that, we're talking other possibilities.

The candidates for 5-2 with a win and their point differential ranges are:

Heelan (42-58)
Gilbert (33-49)
Waverly-Shell Rock (50-66)
Clear Creek/Amana (47-63)
Glenwood (48-64)
​

Teams that might be in the 5-2 at-large pool with a loss are:

Webster City (62-78)
Davenport Assumption (45-61)
Carlisle (51-67)
Norwalk (51-67)
​

A close game between Carlisle and Norwalk gives the loser a very good chance at one of the at-large spots. A big margin of victory there probably eliminates the loser. IIf both Boone and Gilbert win (knocking Webster City into the at-large pool), Webster City has a good points edge - in fact, if they lose by 11 points or fewer, nobody can catch them. Waverly-Shell Rock, Clear Creek/Amana and Glenwood are going to be in the mix with big wins. Assumption would need a close loss to Marion, plus some other candidates to lose some points.

 

[paxregis]

Has this been happening? I certainly don't recall a school changing its name to try to game the alphabetical system the IAHSAA uses. I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but I'm not aware of it.

If you go to QuikStats they have all the teams listed in alphabetical order, the way the state figures it. Public schools are generally listed by their town or their district name; private schools seem to be listed by their school name first and the town after that (so you have Cedar Rapids Kennedy and Cedar Rapids Washington, but Xavier, Cedar Rapids. And I say "generally" because you also have Prairie, Cedar Rapids and Valley, West Des Moines, so no there's no tried-and-true method about it).

Not sure why WDM Valley is listed like it is. Prairie is that way because they are the high school for the College school district in rural Cedar Rapids.

 

[PNation]

The best thing for 2 loss teams to happen is for Gilbert to lose, because with a Webster City loss then take the 2nd spot, and it is very tough for Webster City not to get a spot. Right now the 2 loss teams in contention have point totals as followed

Webster City 79 (only a two loss if they lose to Boone)
Norwalk and Carlisle at 68 (loser would be 2 loss and total would go down)
WSR 66 (probable 17 point win against Charles City)
Glenwood 64 (good chance for 17 point win against ADM)
CCA 63 (probable 17 point win against Central DeWitt)

Other than that I don't see anyone with a chance

More than likely what happens is WSR is in with a big win over CC, and Glenwood is in with a 17 point win over ADM, my best guess for the entire field is as follows

Storm Lake
SBL
Webster City
Boone
Xavier
Benton
West Delaware
Assumption
Solon
Oskaloosa
Pella
Norwalk
Carroll
Creston
Waverly Shell Rock
Glenwood

I'd go with pairings as followed, you could tweak these many ways (I'd tried to avoid district match ups as I think the state will, they don't care about travel with everything on Fridays)

Glenwood at Storm Lake
SBL at Webster City
Assumption at Xavier
Waverly Shell Rock at West Delaware
Benton at Solon
Oskaloosa at Pella (tried to avoid the rematch but couldn't)
Boone at Carroll
Norwalk vs. Creston (I think it would be at Norwalk with the alphabet rule)

 

[KidSilverhair]

You could avoid the Osky-Pella rematch with Assumption at Solon, Osky at Xavier and Benton at Pella. That's still likely setting up a Pella-Xavier game in the second round, though ... not sure how you get around that.

The state says in the post season manual they will avoid first-round district rematches, EXCEPT there's no guarantee about an at-large team not being matched with their district's champion. If Glenwood is an at-large team, it's going to be hard for the state to match them with anyone but the Creston-Carroll winner; maybe SBL if they beat Storm Lake, or maybe even Boone if they beat Webster City? I think that Glenwood-Storm Lake trip might be too much for the state, but what do I know?

Home team this year is reverse alphabetical, so starting at J, that means Creston would host your Norwalk-Creston game.

 

[PNation]

I believe it goes J to Z then A to J so Norwalk comes first, I think. I hope they avoid a Xavier vs. Pella quarterfinal, and honestly so semi final games, geography should play no role in it since it is at the dome no matter what. As for Glenwood, I don't think the state will mind sending them 2+ hours with the game being on a Friday night. Also I wouldn't mind seeing them send Assumption to Pella since the Dutch went there last year.

 

[KidSilverhair]

JT Linder's mock 3A east-side playoff brackets for the Cedar Rapids Gazette are another take. It looks like he's put Benton-West Delaware and WSR-Pella in one bracket, and Osky-Xavier and Assumption-Solon in the other. That would keep Pella and Xavier apart until the semifinals, means Pella gets to stay home if they face West Delaware in the quarters (since the Hawks have lost a district game), and potentially matches Solon at Xavier. That's probably best-case for both the Saints and the Dutch.

Aaaaand that's assuming everybody wins that's expected to win both this Friday and next. Not always a given.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I believe it goes J to Z then A to J so Norwalk comes first, I think. I hope they avoid a Xavier vs. Pella quarterfinal, and honestly so semi final games, geography should play no role in it since it is at the dome no matter what. As for Glenwood, I don't think the state will mind sending them 2+ hours with the game being on a Friday night. Also I wouldn't mind seeing them send Assumption to Pella since the Dutch went there last year.

It's worded oddly, but I'm pretty sure they mean starting at J, then running the rest of the way through the alphabet until I. I wouldn't think they'd re-start the alignment halfway through, but yeah, it's worded strangely. Norwalk does come first (ahead of Creston) but it's reverse order for playoff home field, which means it would be at Creston.

(Also - if you look at the IAHSAA's regular season manual that came out last summer, it says the alphabetical system for 2016 starts at K and ends at J; the postseason manual says it starts at J and ends at I. Looks like somebody dropped the ball since July ...)

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Having seen Xavier/Solon 3 times each, I'd take Solon over Xavier. I see too many athletes to stop, and their defense will not let you run the football.

Haven't seen Pella so I can't say how it would go if the state matched Pella/Solon or Pella/Xavier before the Semifinals.

Also, how would avoiding the Pella/Osky rematch influence the western side of the state? Any idea, Kid?

 

[fmclonefan]

tie breaker for the at-large bid:

Alphabetical Draw each year- For 2016 we will start with the letter “J”
J through Z and then A through I.

tie breaker home field for the playoffs:

If there was no head-to-head competition, the home school will be determined by the alphabetical system
and the school listed LAST alphabetically will be the home team.

Straight from the IAHSAA website under the Post Season Football Manual.

 

[fmclonefan]

"If Glenwood is an at-large team, it's going to be hard for the state to match them with anyone but the Creston-Carroll winner; maybe SBL if they beat Storm Lake, or maybe even Boone if they beat Webster City? I think that Glenwood-Storm Lake trip might be too much for the state, but what do I know?"



Pella Christian went to Council Bluffs two years in a row not all that long ago and that is a 175 mile trip, one way, so I think the state would be fine sending Glenwood to Storm Lake or SBL. Those are both less than 150 miles.

 

[fmclonefan]

"Having seen Xavier/Solon 3 times each, I'd take Solon over Xavier. I see too many athletes to stop, and their defense will not let you run the football"

I haven't seen Xavier or Solon play this year, but this is a pretty bold statement. Xavier has been steamrolling opponents. Solon has also steamrolled their district, but they are in an awfully weak district. I know that Regina and Mount Vernon both ran for over 250 yards on Solon early in the year. I'm sure they have improved, like all teams do, but were they missing some guys early in the year? or just have gelled as a defense? Not taking anything away from Solon as they've had a tremendous year, just curious.

 

[KidSilverhair]

tie breaker for the at-large bid:

Alphabetical Draw each year- For 2016 we will start with the letter “J”
J through Z and then A through I.

tie breaker home field for the playoffs:

If there was no head-to-head competition, the home school will be determined by the alphabetical system
and the school listed LAST alphabetically will be the home team.

Straight from the IAHSAA website under the Post Season Football Manual.

I don't know if we're trying to say the same thing here, or if we're talking past each other, or what, but I think we might be on the same page.

Consider the Norwalk-Creston example. You start the system at letter "J" so Norwalk would come first. As you continue to the end of the alphabet and then back to the top, Creston would come second. With the reverse alphabetical order for 2016, Creston would be LAST alphabetically and therefore host.

Am I doing that wrong? It seems right to me.

 

[fmclonefan]

I think where I read it differently is that the tie-breaker for the home field is from A to Z. I think the starting at "J" thing only applies for the tie breaker for the at-large bid. That is the way that I read it, but I also could be wrong!

 

[KidSilverhair]

Having seen Xavier/Solon 3 times each, I'd take Solon over Xavier. I see too many athletes to stop, and their defense will not let you run the football.

Haven't seen Pella so I can't say how it would go if the state matched Pella/Solon or Pella/Xavier before the Semifinals.

Also, how would avoiding the Pella/Osky rematch influence the western side of the state? Any idea, Kid?

I can't take anything away from Solon, as I know they always have a terrific program and play outstanding football, but Xavier is racking up close to 400 yards per game on offense. They have the top rusher in the state in 3A. They put up nearly 400 yards on Waverly-Shell Rock, a team that is still leading District 3 in total defense even after that. And, the Saints defense is getting way better - they've allowed 45, 22, and 180 total yards and 8 total points in the past three games.

Solon and Xavier did have one common opponent in Regina, with Xavier winning 35-26 and Solon getting shut out 34-0. I don't know how much Solon has improved since then, but Xavier's defense has gotten a lot better. I give you credit for having seen both teams three times this year, and Solon must be terrifically impressive for you to give them the edge. They played a tight contest for the ages last year in Solon - maybe there's another one on tap?

As far as avoiding the Osky-Pella rematch and any effect on the west side, I don't think it would make a difference. Pella is probably going to be bracketed with Xavier/Solon/West Delaware on the east side, regardless - there might be an outside chance for Boone to go east instead if they win the district, but Pella is the only one that makes sense. Norwalk would go into a west-side bracket, so District 6 gets split in that event. Osky, Assumption/Marion, and Benton go into the eastern brackets, with WSR as the likely at-large team rounding it out to 8.

If something weird happens, like both WSR and CCA (or Assumption) taking the two at-large spots, I would guess Osky might go west. If the two at-larges are both west-side (Webster City and Glenwood, say), I dunno.

If you go with just the three district winners of Xavier/Solon/West Delaware in the east with Pella going west, you have to have a 2v2 matchup on the east side somewhere to round out the bracket, PLUS three 2nd/3rd place teams to play the 1st placers. If you've got Assumption/Marion, WSR, Benton, and throw in Osky, you still need another one. Gilbert? Norwalk? Boone, if they lose? Pella still makes more sense.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I think where I read it differently is that the tie-breaker for the home field is from A to Z. I think the starting at "J" thing only applies for the tie breaker for the at-large bid. That is the way that I read it, but I also could be wrong!

I read it as the "alphabetical system" means the same system they use to break ties. And I could be wrong as well!

 

[fmclonefan]

Goodness, I don't know which way is correct. Guess we will find out, but that is a bit ambiguous in the manual. Either way Pella would go to Xavier.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

Solon and Xavier did have one common opponent in Regina, with Xavier winning 35-26 and Solon getting shut out 34-0. I don't know how much Solon has improved since then, but Xavier's defense has gotten a lot better.

I watched Xavier play Regina W1 and I watched Solon play Regina W2. Xavier looked to have a plan, and they ultimately executed that plan. Solon looked somewhat lost or unsure of what they wanted to do. They'd seem dead set on throwing and then they'd only run the ball the next series. With that said, Solon seemed more physical than Xavier, just less organized. I believe the game was 7-0 or 0-0 at the half (which to me is a better indicator between common opponents than final score). Could have been thinking too much against Regina and Mt. Vernon, so that might be the difference in stats from early on. Who knows.

Solon lost 0-34
- 0-7 in 1st Half
- 0-28 in 2nd Half

Xavier won 35-26
- 14-12 in 1st Half
- 21-14 in 2nd Half

Also, If we're going to discuss common opponents then we should consider Oskaloosa as the common opponent between Pella and Solon.

Solon won 34-3 (+31)
- 28-3 in 1st Half
- 3-0 in 2nd Half

Pella won 37-13 (+24)
- 14-0 in 1st Half
- 23-13 in 2nd Half



Thoughts?

I give you credit for having seen both teams three times this year, and Solon must be terrifically impressive for you to give them the edge.

Why must they be terrifically impressive for me to give them the edge? What information do you have to say Xavier is the standard for labeling teams as terrifically impressive? All I'm saying is that I've seen them both play and I think Solon is definitely more athletic and equally (if not more) physical than Xavier. There are other factors that go into the game, though, which is why I say I'd give them the edge and not that I think they'd blow them out or some crazy stretch like that. Coaching, mentality, confidence, depth and other things can easily change the outcome of a game. Do I think Solon is guaranteed to win against Xavier? Hell no I don't think that, but what I saw ON THE FIELD leads me to lean towards Solon if this matchup were to happen. Selective stats, common opponents, team history, and public perception have nothing to do with how I form my opinions on a team.

Honestly, I think Washington is the most athletic (the QB being 75% of it) and most physical team I've seen play this year. Clearly that doesn't always translate to victories. I think people often times lose sight of the fact that (8-0) Team A is just a bunch of high school kids that aren't all that different than (4-4) Team B. I think this is the reason why it's so hard for schools to have any sustained success. Players are surrounded by people that will always crown the champs, or final four teams, before the season is even started.

If Glenwood is an at-large team, it's going to be hard for the state to match them with anyone but the Creston-Carroll winner; maybe SBL if they beat Storm Lake, or maybe even Boone if they beat Webster City? I think that Glenwood-Storm Lake trip might be too much for the state, but what do I know?

Glenwood Mileage / Time (According to Google Maps)

to Creston 78 / 1:24
to SBL 111 / 1:41
to Carroll 121 / 2:01
to Storm Lake 142 / 2:30
to Norwalk 149 / 2:10
to Carlisle 157 / 2:16
to Boone 166 / 2:35
to Pella 190 / 2:51
to Webster City 197 / 3:07


I just went up to 200 miles, but Oskaloosa is at 206 miles / 3 hours and 8 minutes. The rest are 250+ and over 3 1/2 hours. Hope this helps with the travel scenarios.

 

[KidSilverhair]

"Why must they be terrifically impressive for me to give them the edge? What information do you have to say Xavier is the standard for labeling teams as terrifically impressive?"

I haven't seen Solon play this year. I can't speak to their talent or physicality or athleticism this year. I saw them come within a whisker of beating Xavier last year, and I know they're good, but that's where my knowledge of 2016 Solon ends.

I have seen Xavier play every game this year, and for the past 11 seasons. I've seen their defense improve dramatically the past month. I've seen their rushing game dominate 7 of 8 games this season, setting records against a darn good Regina defense, with a front five made up entirely of well-experienced seniors. The one game their leading rusher didn't dominate (last week vs Vinton-Shellsburg) the fullback stepped up for nearly 100 yards and the team passed for over 160 yards.

Those are the reasons I said Solon must be "terrifically impressive" for you to give them the edge. In my opinion, Xavier has been terrifically impressive this year, so Solon must be similarly impressive. As I said, I haven't seen Solon, so I can't make a direct comparison. In my view, though, it would take a "terrifically impressive" defense to shut down Xavier's rushing attack (or "not let you run the football").

Can Xavier be beaten? Absolutely. I think the Vinton-Shellsburg game film will give opposing coaches some ideas. But the way they've been playing, I think it would take a "terrifically impressive" effort to do so. That's really all I was saying. I hope you weren't taking it as a criticism - I meant it as a compliment to Solon!

 

[KidSilverhair]

"Glenwood Mileage / Time (According to Google Maps)

to Creston 78 / 1:24
to SBL 111 / 1:41
to Carroll 121 / 2:01
to Storm Lake 142 / 2:30
to Norwalk 149 / 2:10
to Carlisle 157 / 2:16
to Boone 166 / 2:35
to Pella 190 / 2:51
to Webster City 197 / 3:07"

This is really good information. I had a chart for the last two seasons because of the 125-mile first-round limitation they used to have, but I didn't update it for this season. So if SBL beats Storm Lake Friday and Glenwood makes it as at-large, I think we'd almost certainly see that as a first-round match.

 

[IowaHSFootballFan]

I hope you weren't taking it as a criticism - I meant it as a compliment to Solon!

No, I'm definitely not taking it as criticism! I didn't want to come off as defensive, but I think I did just that. Sadly, my hometown will not be playing past week 9 this year, and has no affiliation to these schools so you can criticize all you want . Just wanted to weigh in as someone who has had the chance to see some good teams play some good football this year.

Like I said, in no way am I guaranteeing a Solon win. I think Xavier is more than capable of beating anyone they play, just offering my views from this season. Should be a fun next couple of weeks.

 

[fmclonefan]

"Also, If we're going to discuss common opponents then we should consider Oskaloosa as the common opponent between Pella and Solon.

Solon won 34-3 (+31)
- 28-3 in 1st Half
- 3-0 in 2nd Half

Pella won 37-13 (+24)
- 14-0 in 1st Half
- 23-13 in 2nd Half"

I watched the Pella-Osky game and it was a tough game. I am really glad to see how well Osky has done this year because after that game got done I wasn't quite sure what to think of Pella. The game seemed closer then 37-13. Reading about the Solon-Osky game earlier this season and it seemed Solon had their way with Osky. So, you can't really make anything out of this comparison as they both won comfortably. I have a feeling Solon and Pella may see each other soon enough. I think the state is more likely to have Solon and Pella together in a foursome then Xavier and Pella. May just make more sense to have Xavier and West Delaware as the two #1 seeds in that foursome. But, we'll see.

 

[screwloose]

Glenwood @ Storm Lake
Sergeant Bluff-Luton @ Webster City

Norwalk @ Carroll
Creston @ Pella

Waverly-Shell Rock @ Boone
Benton Community @ West Delaware

Oskaloosa @ Cedar Rapids Xavier
Davenport Assumption @ Solon

 

[cidhawkeye]

Early season games are not always the best predictors but knowing someone who played against both Solon and Xavier he sides with Xavier. He indicated that Solon wasn't as athletic as expected and he felt they didn't play as hard in the 2nd half as expected.

 

[KidSilverhair]

I hope I'm not driving everybody nuts, but I'm just such a nerd with these playoff possibilities, I can't stop myself. Plus I will be on the road out of state when the actual pairings are announced Saturday, so the closer I can get to figuring out the field ... let's look at:

At-Large Chances Of All The Possible 5-2 District Records​

Let's go in reverse order of the current point differential totals:

MARION (+10) has no chance at getting an at-large spot. The good news for them is, with a win they'll be second or tied for first, so they'd make the playoffs anyway.

DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES (+18) has no chance at getting an at-large spot. Best they can do is spoil Gilbert's chances by beating them tonight. CORRECTION: I think there is a narrow path for DC-G to get an at-large spot. With no chance to catch the Norwalk-Carlisle loser, they'd need everyone else to be eliminated. They take out Gilbert by winning. They need Davenport Assumption to win. Then Heelan, Clear Creek-Amana, Glenwood, and Waverly-Shell Rock would all have to lose.

GILBERT (+32) can get second with a win plus a Webster City loss. If Webster City wins, Gilbert's path to an at-large is extremely narrow. I'm talking razor-thin. First, they need a loss by Norwalk; if Carlisle loses and makes the at-large pool, Gilbert is out because they've lost to Carlisle. Next, they need a loss by Waverly-Shell Rock, because they can't catch them in the at-large pool. Then, they'd need all but one of the following - a win or a big loss (and a West Delaware win) by Davenport Assumption, a loss or a close win by Glenwood, a loss or a close win by Clear Creek-Amana, and a loss or a close win by Heelan.
So you're saying there's a chance?

HEELAN (+41) has to win by at least 5 points to have any chance at all. Then they're going to need all but one of the following - a win by Assumption (or that big loss plus a West Delaware win); losses or close wins by Glenwood, Clear Creek-Amana and Waverly-Shell Rock; a blowout in the Carlisle-Norwalk game; and a win by Webster City. Whew!

CLEAR CREEK-AMANA (+46) would be in the playoffs and a first-place tie with losses by West Delaware and Assumption. If West Delaware and Marion win, they'd be out of the at-large pool because of their loss to Assumption. They make the at-large pool only if Assumption beats Marion, and with the Clippers likely winning big over Central De Witt, we'd be looking at a point total around 60 or more.

GLENWOOD (+47) is probably in line for a big win against ADM, so their point total is likely going to be somewhere around 60 or more.

WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK (+49) gets around 60 points with a double-digit win over Charles City.

DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION (+62) is only in the at-large pool with a loss, so their total would drop, probably below 60. If West Delaware also loses, it would be a first-place tie and automatic playoff spot.

WEST DELAWARE (+66) actually can't be in the at-large pool, they are guaranteed a playoff spot. They win the district with a win, and finish no worse than second with a loss.

CARLISLE/NORWALK (+68) - the winner is second, the loser goes in the at-large pool. A close game keeps the loser's point totals above 60 or even 65; a blowout would drop them as low as 51.

WEBSTER CITY (+79) - the other at-large contenders are hoping Webster City beats Boone to win the district, or that Gilbert loses to eliminate the chance of three playoff teams from District 2. A loss plus a Gilbert win almost assures an at-large spot for Webster City, as it would take a loss of 13 points or more before any two other potential at-larges could catch them.

 

[fmclonefan]

Never get tired of your nerdiness Kid!! Just one correction. Gilbert beat Carlisle week 2.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Gol-durn it all! And to think (I thought) I even checked that score! My credibility is once again shot to hell ...

ANYway, so if Webster City beats Boone and Gilbert beats Dallas Center-Grimes, Gilbert is in the group of potential at-larges. Should Norwalk beat Carlisle, then, Carlisle gets eliminated, due to their one-point loss to Gilbert Week 2. As fmclonefan mentioned. That actually helps Gilbert a little, because they can't touch the Norwalk-Carlisle loser in points ... knocking one of them out head-to-head works in their favor.

So, Webster City wins, Gilbert wins, Norwalk wins; should Waverly-Shell Rock win (since Gilbert can't catch them in points), Gilbert needs to hope all of the following happens: Assumption has to win (or lose big), Glenwood has to lose (or win close), Clear Creek-Amana has to lose (or win close), and Heelan has to lose (or win close). If Waverly-Shell Rock loses, they'd just need all but one of those other things. If Carlisle beats Norwalk, then we're back to no chance unless Waverly-Shell Rock loses.

Gilbert's best chance is still a Boone win over Webster City; couple that with Gilbert beating DC-G and Gilbert gets second place. Then your at-larges are very likely Webster City and the Norwalk-Carlisle loser (unless that's a blowout, which opens the door for some other opportunities).

And of course, everyone outside District 4 needs West Delaware and Assumption to win, because if they both lose, District 4 probably takes both at-large spots with a four-way tie.