Potential 3A state bracket/predictions

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

Hey guys. I wanted to make my own predictions (Mostly just picking the favorites for the fun of seeing what the bracket will look like)
on substate winners for 3A and then look at how the seeds would line up
when the state tournament starts (If I'm right, which I surely won't
be). I believe seeding is just overall record and then the 4A, 3A, 2A,
1A wins thing as a tie-breaker. Correct me if I'm wrong on that. NOTE: Ft. Madison would technically have more wins than Pella in this situation, but I'm assuming their wins vs. non-state opponents count as less? I'll edit these if I'm wrong on how they would be seeded.

Substate 1: LeMars over MOC-FV (This one is probably the toughest to predict. Lemars has less-hard district IMO)
Substate 2: Waverly-Shell Rock over Humboldt (This one might be the easiest)
Substate 3: Dubuque Wahlert over Decorah (Wahlert looking really good right now)
Substate 4: Xavier over Assumption (No surprise if Assumption wins)
Substate 5: Ft. Madison over Williamsburg (Even though Williamsburg is higher ranked, I think Ft. Madison is favorite)
Substate 6: Pella over Norwalk (This already happened a few days ago)
Substate 7: Dallas Center-Grimes over Gilbert (Last year, DCG was a force. Maybe this year they actually get in)
Substate 8: Harlan over Carroll (Semi-finalist from last year although I could see a lot of teams making it out of here)

That would make the bracket:

1.Waverly-Shell Rock (2 losses) vs.
8. Xavier (8 losses)

4. LeMars (3 losses) vs.
5. DCG (4 losses)

3. Ft. Madison (2 losses) vs.
6. Harlan (5 losses)

2. Pella (2 losses) vs.
7. Wahlert (6 losses)

If this is what the field looks like, I'd say Waverly over Lemars in one semi-final and Wahlert over Ft. Madison in the other with Wahlert defeating Waverly in the championship.


Let me know how screwed up it is! Hope it's an interesting read anyway. I went with 3A for this experiment because I think it will have the craziest seeding.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Lots of fun, but way too early. Dub. Wahlert hosts Iowa City West tonight (Tuesday) down two junior starters. Cordell Pemsl may return Friday but is still resting his knee and won't play against the #1 4A team. 6-6 forward/guard Riley Till is out indefinitely as the result of a viscious dog attack to the face and upper body, requiring some facial surgery. Unusual, I realize-- but that is the word today. My point is that Wahlert will be lucky to finish 13-8, and could be the 8th seed if they make it out of their substate. All their tourney games are on the road. I do agree that 3A will be crazy this year, and I also believe that the field (whatever it is) will be much stronger than last year's field. I feel really bad for Riley, whose sister, Claire, plays on Iowa's women's squad for Lisa Bluder, and whose mother, Shelly Till, is the color commentator for the Iowa women's broadcasts. (Addendum-- Incident happened Sunday, and swelling is going down and he should be able to return in a week or two, I'm now told.). (Second addendum- as of 2/13 Till and Pemsl are back playing- Till taped up and Pemsl looking very strong.)


This post was edited on 2/15 6:59 PM by EastIowaHawk

 

[NWIAFan19]

I only know the most about NW Iowa so that is what I will stick to in this prediction.

District #1
Le Mars vs. Storm Lake (I don't see anything crazy with this pick)
Sergeant Bluff vs. Heelan (They have split the regular season meetings, but I give Heelan the edge due to experience)

District #2
Algona vs. Spencer (I like the way Spencer is playing right now, they have some losses, but they have been competitive)
Spirit Lake vs. MOC-FV (I like MOC and Jansen, they are going to be very tough to beat)

District #1 Final
Le Mars vs. Heelan (Heelan for some reason has Le Mars's number, Burnside didn't play the first time!)
MOC-FV vs. Spencer (Spencer keeps it close until half, MOC-FV to much down the stretch)

Sub-State #1 Final
MOC-FV vs. Heelan (Re-match of last year's sub-state final, same result!)

With that being said, if this is the way it plays out I think MOC-FV will be very tough in Des Moines. I see them finishing no less than 3rd place again this year. Just my opinion, can't wait for everything to play out. Good luck to all teams!!

 

[thinkpad1]

IF Wahlert gets healthy they will be strong and highly favored to win it all. Tale will be told when they play Xavier who will likely have 9 losses after they square off against Linn-Mar again. HOWEVER, don't discount Xavier. Their losses come against a very good WSR Team and 4A powerhouses like CR Kennedy, Linn Mar, CR Washington, IC West and..... they beat Dowling. If they show up and are healthy, which it looks like they are 100%, top contender in 3A. I see Wahlert and WSR as the only team that will stop them and whoever wins those battles win state ---- Easily.

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Hey, thinkpad, I had Xavier my #1 pre-season pick in 3A, and even though their record is not spectacular, they will be a very, very tough out (if they make it in...). I think there is no way to predict anything in 3A this year. There have been 5 or 6 number one teams in various polls at different times and I truly believe that records mean very little for whichever eight teams make it to Des Moines. And that means that the seeding will be absolutely crazy. Just as some excellent teams won't even make it out of their districts or substates, would you really want to be the number one or even number two seed? There is so much balance that there are certain to be some huge surprises.

 

[thinkpad1]

Hey Eastern Iowa Hawk. Chill. Not contesting anything. I see Xavier just beat top seed 4A Linn-Mar so I eat crow on that. I will stick with my Wahlert, WSR, Xavier prediction and one of those teams hang 20 plus points on the weak other side of the bracket contenders at state. This is an easy one.

 

[ronsss]

harlans greatness will be next year, with only 3 seniors on a roster of 17 and i think only 1 starts...they also should have some height next year too, with a few guys now at 6ft 4, and one freshman at 6ft 4....

This post was edited on 2/11 1:21 AM by ronsss

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

Originally posted by thinkpad1:
IF Wahlert gets healthy they will be strong and highly favored to win it all. Tale will be told when they play Xavier who will likely have 9 losses after they square off against Linn-Mar again. HOWEVER, don't discount Xavier. Their losses come against a very good WSR Team and 4A powerhouses like CR Kennedy, Linn Mar, CR Washington, IC West and..... they beat Dowling. If they show up and are healthy, which it looks like they are 100%, top contender in 3A. I see Wahlert and WSR as the only team that will stop them and whoever wins those battles win state ---- Easily.

Top contender in 3A is either Wahlert or WSR. I'd rank Xavier below teams like Pella, Ft. Madison and LeMars. Xavier's losses don't only come to 4A powerhouses, they were beaten by Cedar Rapids Prairie by 16. (In comparison, Prairie beat the 4 seed in Ft. Madison's district by 16 as well.)

Nobody is winning the championship easily, unless it's a 100% Wahlert team that is clicking on all cylinders.

 

[AlecJensen89]

Substate 1: Spirit Lake over Heelan (This was the hardest one to pick. Algona and MOC are just as deserving to be in Spirit Lake's spot. Spirit Lake could be very good if the had more than two guys who could hit the 3 ball at a consistent level. Algona's starters are all between 6'1" to 6'5" and all are lengthy and can shoot the 3. If Luke TerHark gets hot from deep they can compete with anyone. For MOC Levi Jansen is a flat out scorer and Christian Korver has been blessed with the genes of his relative Kyle Korver because he can shoot the 3 ball very well. You can count on them every game but its up to the rest of the team to win this one.)
Substate 2: Waverly - Shell Rock over Humboldt (If Humboldt can make at least 40% of their 3s they could hang in with anyone but being as short as they are I dont know how they can match up with Phyfe. Jake Velky is one of the best shooters and is one of the best senior guards this season so containing him will most likely be a priority.)
Substate 3: Wahlert over Cresco, Crestwood (Wahlert will most likely be healthy by then so how can you go against them?)
Substate 4: Xavier over Assumption (Xavier just beating Linn-Mar and Dowling earlier in the year gives me their vote. Watching Assumption play on MC22 against some team from Illinois, Assumption was down the whole game and never seemed to get into a rhythm and seemed to not change their game plan. Knowing that this game was earlier in the season things may be different for them now.)
Substate 5: Keokuk over Williamsburg (Williamsburg, playing in the weaker half of the WaMaC conference gives their record a boost but I dont buy it one bit. Both teams are giving up the least amount of points per game in 3A at around 43-44 points. Should be a close game)
Substate 6: Pella over Norwalk (That game was played about a week ago. If Norwalk wants a chance they need to slow the game down, get back on defense, and not give up easy 3s.)
Substate 7: Dallas Center - Grimes over Perry (If Perry can make more than the 41.4% of their field goals that they shoot now, close out on DCG shooter Doug Heritage, and get Rix in foul trouble they might have a chance against the team shooting the highest FG% in 3A at 53.6%.)
Substate 8: Harlan over Carroll (Harlan's coach comes from one of the most winning-est stretches in high school basketball history with Palmer - Palmroy between 1986-1989. He knows what it takes to win in the postseason. Making the state semis last year and the year before making it to the finals.)

This post was edited on 2/13 12:28 AM by AlecJensen89

 

[stick1972]

Thinking Waverly is an easy pick over Humboldt is very comical... Waverly has two very good players and the talent drops off significantly. I see Humboldt playing a box in one to contain Phyfe, and stick Heinz on Velky.. With that being said, Humboldt has a tough District Final vs Webster City who only lost to WSR by 4 points and WC isn't tall either.
I don't see Waverly being able to control the guard court for Humboldt and they shoot very well at Iowa Falls. It will be a great game and if you want to see the best PG in 3A and one of the best pure shooters, you might want to catch Heinz and Orness.

 

[AlecJensen89]

I have the exact same feelings. I dont know if Humboldt will play the box and one I feel like they will play straight man but have the man guarding Phyfe front him and have back side help.

 

[PNation]

Waverly has a little more talent than your giving them credit for

 

[EastIowaHawk]

Agree about Waverly. I've seen them in person and they are a talented, well-coached unit which will make a strong run through the tournament. Just because they have two standouts doesn't mean that their other players don't contribute as well. They have a lot of quickness and play strong in-your-face defense.

 

[Hawk_5]

Just remember when Waverly and Webster City played Velky played 1 quarter had 12pts. Dont know much about Humboldt or Webster City, but Waverly has beaten Xavier, Waterloo West, Cedar Falls, Waterloo East,and a really good Minnesota team in Caledonia. You just don't beat those teams with just two players.

 

[WICyclone90]

Was looking over schedules for the last week of the regular season and I see theres a potential Substate 8 preview on Thursday between Harlan & Carroll, at Carroll. Any opinions on this game?

I've seen it before where schools try to schedule potential post-season opponents late in the year. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, and sometimes they don't even see each other (depends on the boys in Boone).

 

[NeverReadTheTermsOfService]

Originally posted by stick1972:
Thinking Waverly is an easy pick over Humboldt is very comical... Waverly has two very good players and the talent drops off significantly. I see Humboldt playing a box in one to contain Phyfe, and stick Heinz on Velky.. With that being said, Humboldt has a tough District Final vs Webster City who only lost to WSR by 4 points and WC isn't tall either.
I don't see Waverly being able to control the guard court for Humboldt and they shoot very well at Iowa Falls. It will be a great game and if you want to see the best PG in 3A and one of the best pure shooters, you might want to catch Heinz and Orness.

Humboldt has a better shot of not making it to the substate final than knocking off Waverly. Unbiasedly it would be a monumental upset if Humboldt went to state. I don't see from the stats where Heinz is near the best PGs in 3A but I will admit I haven't seen him play.

 

[ronsss]

don,t see harlan beating carroll...not this year