1A Predictions
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It all depends on how the IHSAA puts together the playoffs after round 1.
They have said it wont be the same as the past 4 years, so who knows.
Regina lost a ton of OL but still has Arendt. That dude is a monster! Also they return like everybody in the backfield and at WR. Riley Dixon is a puke and they wont miss him. That Brinkman kid is a stud.
I think WB returns a bunch from last year's underachieving team. They play in a pretty weak district so can get some confidence before they will inevitably have to play the Regals. Depending on where that game is at you never know. I doubt WB has enough for the Regals.
South Winn is gonna be VERY good. They are crazy young and are loaded at skill positions.
Those are the best 3 teams on the east side. Probably ICR, SW, WB in that order
They have said it wont be the same as the past 4 years, so who knows.
Regina lost a ton of OL but still has Arendt. That dude is a monster! Also they return like everybody in the backfield and at WR. Riley Dixon is a puke and they wont miss him. That Brinkman kid is a stud.
I think WB returns a bunch from last year's underachieving team. They play in a pretty weak district so can get some confidence before they will inevitably have to play the Regals. Depending on where that game is at you never know. I doubt WB has enough for the Regals.
South Winn is gonna be VERY good. They are crazy young and are loaded at skill positions.
Those are the best 3 teams on the east side. Probably ICR, SW, WB in that order
Nice comment about a high school player. I hope you know the kid well enough to call him that. The lines at Regina should be fine.
is it a coincidence that you are talking about the OLine being fine and Riley Dixon in the same breath, or is it just random?
Given there has (allegedly, yet I've heard it from many people inside the Regal circle) been a 6'3, 275 pound OLineman living with Riley, that moved from Pekin (Packwood), since last year.
there is no doubt the Regal OL will be fine.
Coach Brinkman is a great guy, and he will, alongside the help of Kanellis, have them keyed up to do the right things. Jack Donovan is a kid I'm hearing great things about.
Phil Arendt is a great OL and a very nice kid.
Coach Brinkman is a great guy, and he will, alongside the help of Kanellis, have them keyed up to do the right things. Jack Donovan is a kid I'm hearing great things about.
Phil Arendt is a great OL and a very nice kid.
They have the makings of a pretty good squad.
The Bears avoid Regina until the playoffs, which could be a good thing.
WB's district will be far less talented than it has been in previous years, but the target will be on the back of the Bears.
They'll return 18 starters of 22 positions.
5 OL return + TE return
QB and RB return
3 WR targets return, plus a junior who'll play a pivotal role
Defensively, the losses will be a bit more substantial. Losing LB's like Gould and Roth are tough to replace, but the speed the Bears will put on the field may offset that. Donovan's loss at CB is a really tough one, as will his punting.
A lot of hay left to be put in the barn before we start talking predictions and grandeur.
August 11 and 16 are the only dates I am thinking about right now.
In the end, I think it will be the Regals
Biggest contenders: West Lyon, South Winn, FDSE
Next level: WB, CBSA
From a statistical perspecive, I just cannot see a surprise team come from anywhere other than this list.
Blame: Nice post. I believe CBSA is now Class A this next season. Both them and Maquoketa Valley should make some noise next season in Class A. WB is well coached and no doubt be a play-off team. With the new state rules, the question is when they and possibly Regina match up? Could be in the Dome.
It's not like that was debatable in this case. Love him or hate him as a person (I don't know him personally) all you want, but calling a guy, who ran for 1400 yards while averaging nearly 8 yards a carry, a puke is pretty ridiculous. Brinkman is very good and should step in very nicely, but Dixon was a pretty damn good player, too.
It'll be interesting to see if there is anyone that can challenge the Regals for a state title, I'm also interested to see how the new playoff rules will come into play when they get to the dome. Let's say that for example (this is entirely hypothetical) that the 4 teams that get to the dome are Regina, West Branch, NW Web, and AHST, Regina and West Branch are both 9-0 and highly ranked, the other two are 2 loss teams and not ranked, does the state seed the teams, or go geographical?
I should hope MNW has a good year they play in arguably the weakest 1A district.
How do you know whether or not I've met and know Riley, CID dude? I do. Accept it
How do you know whether or not I've met and know Riley, CID dude? I do. Accept it
Not certain where I said I knew anything about whether you had met Riley. I am glad you chose a message board to call someone a name. Nice work out of you.
Hey GoEagles23, I wonder if you will still have that same opinion of District 7 by the end of the season. Personally, I think that it is one of the stronger districts. Should be fun on Oct. 24 when MNW gets to come to the Jungle.
I completely disagree with GoEagles on D7 being the weakest.
It is in my bottom 3, but not the weakest.
In order of weakness on the BIFI (Blame It Football Index): 8, 1, 7
1 and 8 are in a world all their own. No offense to those schools, it is just a historical projection.
In order of strength: 4, 2, 5, 3, 6, 7, 1, 8
Anybody have an opinion on this topic one way or the other?
FOR GO EAGLES:
If the old BlameIt were around, he would tell you to relax. But, he would also defend you to a degree.
That ship sailed.
Sometimes I miss that guy.
It is in my bottom 3, but not the weakest.
In order of weakness on the BIFI (Blame It Football Index): 8, 1, 7
1 and 8 are in a world all their own. No offense to those schools, it is just a historical projection.
In order of strength: 4, 2, 5, 3, 6, 7, 1, 8
Anybody have an opinion on this topic one way or the other?
FOR GO EAGLES:
If the old BlameIt were around, he would tell you to relax. But, he would also defend you to a degree.
That ship sailed.
Sometimes I miss that guy.
I haven't really studied the geographical issues with the districts, but folks speculating on Regina and West Branch both getting to the semifinals ... I don't know how likely that is.
Since the state is adjusting the matchups in the first three playoff rounds to minimize travel, I would think that increases the likelihood that schools as relatively close as Regina and West Branch would meet sometime in the first three rounds. But I don't know all the ins and outs of how the state is actually going to do things.
Just saying.
Since the state is adjusting the matchups in the first three playoff rounds to minimize travel, I would think that increases the likelihood that schools as relatively close as Regina and West Branch would meet sometime in the first three rounds. But I don't know all the ins and outs of how the state is actually going to do things.
Just saying.
I agree with you, KidSilver.
However, I do know the IHSAA would like to see the best games at the Dome.
WB vs Regina (for the east side) may be that game. It may not.
Regina vs South Winn might also be that game.
But, by the playoffs - if things go to the BIPI plan - the rankings will have both Regina and WB in the top 4.
Why would the IHSAA want them to play in round of 32 or 16?
However, I do know the IHSAA would like to see the best games at the Dome.
WB vs Regina (for the east side) may be that game. It may not.
Regina vs South Winn might also be that game.
But, by the playoffs - if things go to the BIPI plan - the rankings will have both Regina and WB in the top 4.
Why would the IHSAA want them to play in round of 32 or 16?
Strength of districts in my opinion: 4, 2, 5, 6, 3, 7, 1, 8.Originally posted by BlameIt:
I completely disagree with GoEagles on D7 being the weakest.
It is in my bottom 3, but not the weakest.
In order of weakness on the BIFI (Blame It Football Index): 8, 1, 7
1 and 8 are in a world all their own. No offense to those schools, it is just a historical projection.
In order of strength: 4, 2, 5, 3, 6, 7, 1, 8
Anybody have an opinion on this topic one way or the other?
FOR GO EAGLES:
If the old BlameIt were around, he would tell you to relax. But, he would also defend you to a degree.
That ship sailed.
Sometimes I miss that guy.
4 and 2 have the most quality teams one through five. 5 and 6 obviously have WB and Regina with a couple more quality teams. 3 should be competitive for the most part. Districts 7, 1, and 8 are average to below average from my perspective.
EAGLES: You in no way, shape, or form represent the Clayton Ridge fan base. Attacking players like you do is ridiculous. Change your screen name; change your style; or just go away. Please.
There was nothing but respect for Regina and Riley Dixon after the playoff game last fall. The Ridge "hung around" for almost three quarters, but had NOTHING in the gas tank when the 4th quarter came around. Kudos to the Regals on another championship and best of luck this fall to everyone.
I don't know how you can say District 7 is average. There's only one team in that district that finished with a losing record/didn't make the playoffs last year (Woodward Academy).
-St. Edmond finished runner-up in 1A and returns the majority of their team
-Manson Northwest Webster went 8-3 and returns most of their team
-Ogden was a Quarterfinalist and returns a lot of their team
-South Hamilton and South Central Calhoun were playoff qualifiers coming out of fairly tough districts and return a lot of players
-Madrid went 8-3, lost to AHST by 8 in the playoffs and they return several players, particularly on the defensive side. They'll probably have the toughest road to climb though jumping from A to 1A and most of these teams above having faced tougher competition.
Both Ogden and Manson Northwest Webster were ranked in 1A, and very well could be this year too.
If anything, I'd say it's the most balanced district in 1A. I said it earlier this year when the districts were released, but there's gonna be some teams in this district that end up with losing records, that will be better than what their record says.
This post was edited on 6/19 4:53 PM by DarkThunder#61
-St. Edmond finished runner-up in 1A and returns the majority of their team
-Manson Northwest Webster went 8-3 and returns most of their team
-Ogden was a Quarterfinalist and returns a lot of their team
-South Hamilton and South Central Calhoun were playoff qualifiers coming out of fairly tough districts and return a lot of players
-Madrid went 8-3, lost to AHST by 8 in the playoffs and they return several players, particularly on the defensive side. They'll probably have the toughest road to climb though jumping from A to 1A and most of these teams above having faced tougher competition.
Both Ogden and Manson Northwest Webster were ranked in 1A, and very well could be this year too.
If anything, I'd say it's the most balanced district in 1A. I said it earlier this year when the districts were released, but there's gonna be some teams in this district that end up with losing records, that will be better than what their record says.
This post was edited on 6/19 4:53 PM by DarkThunder#61
May be a lot of balance in D7, DarkThunder61, especially in the W/L columns.
But, historically and from just a pure prediction standpoint, I will stick to my guns.
Ogden does return its #1 rusher, but loses a QB who produced near 3000 yards of total offense. THAT is tough to replace (see Van Meter and Mt Ayr in 2014, also).
But, historically and from just a pure prediction standpoint, I will stick to my guns.
Ogden does return its #1 rusher, but loses a QB who produced near 3000 yards of total offense. THAT is tough to replace (see Van Meter and Mt Ayr in 2014, also).
Alright well let's take a look.
D4:
SW- should run away with this district IMO
DNH- new QB, RB, return 3rd WR, 4 of top 11 tacklers
CR- new QB, return 3rd RB and WR, 4 of top 11 tacklers
SF- new QB, RB, WRs, return 5 of 11 top tacklers
Hud- return 2nd QB, 2nd RB, top WR, 4 of top 11 tacklers (went 5-5 last year)
MFL- return top QB, top 4 RBs, all but top WR, 8 of top 11 tacklers (1-8 last year)
Jesup- return top QBs, 3 of top 4 RBs, new WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers (2-7 last year)
That's your top district, for starters.
D2:
West Lyon- return 2nd QB, 5th RB, 4th and 5th WR, 5 of top 11 tacklers (this is a favorite in the west...will be ranked to start the season)
WC- new QB, new RB, 2nd WR, 3 of top 11 tacklers
SO- return top QB, 4th RB, 2nd, 4th and 5th WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers (went 2-7 last year)
HMS- new QB, return 3rd RB, 2nd WR, 7 of top 11 tacklers (could have a decent year)
RV- return 4th RB, top 3 WRs, 5 of top 11 tacklers....but they also have to replace Garthoff
Hinton- return 2nd QB, 3rd-5th RBs, 2nd, 4th, 5th WR, 4 of top 11 tacklers
UC- new QB, RB, return 3rd WR, 3 of top 11 tacklers
You didn't make them your #2 solely because of West Lyon did you?......
And for argument's sake, basically so you can't use this against me
....D7:
SE- return top QB, 2nd, 3rd RB, their only WR "technically"...6 of top 11 tacklers (4 of 5 OL, if I knew other teams' I'd share)
MNW- return top QB, top RB, 4th WR, 3 of top 11 tacklers, and a couple of really big linemen
Ogden- new QB, return top RB, top WRs (West brothers), 4 of top 11 tacklers
SCC- new QB, return top RB, 2nd-4th WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers
SH- new QB, WR, return 2nd, 3rd RB, 5 of top 11 tacklers
Madrid- new QB, WR, return 2nd, 4th RB, 8 of top 11 tacklers (run heavy offense)
WA- new QB, WR, top 3 RBs, 4 of top 11 tacklers
I also didn't say I thought D7 was the best.
D4:
SW- should run away with this district IMO
DNH- new QB, RB, return 3rd WR, 4 of top 11 tacklers
CR- new QB, return 3rd RB and WR, 4 of top 11 tacklers
SF- new QB, RB, WRs, return 5 of 11 top tacklers
Hud- return 2nd QB, 2nd RB, top WR, 4 of top 11 tacklers (went 5-5 last year)
MFL- return top QB, top 4 RBs, all but top WR, 8 of top 11 tacklers (1-8 last year)
Jesup- return top QBs, 3 of top 4 RBs, new WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers (2-7 last year)
That's your top district, for starters.
D2:
West Lyon- return 2nd QB, 5th RB, 4th and 5th WR, 5 of top 11 tacklers (this is a favorite in the west...will be ranked to start the season)
WC- new QB, new RB, 2nd WR, 3 of top 11 tacklers
SO- return top QB, 4th RB, 2nd, 4th and 5th WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers (went 2-7 last year)
HMS- new QB, return 3rd RB, 2nd WR, 7 of top 11 tacklers (could have a decent year)
RV- return 4th RB, top 3 WRs, 5 of top 11 tacklers....but they also have to replace Garthoff
Hinton- return 2nd QB, 3rd-5th RBs, 2nd, 4th, 5th WR, 4 of top 11 tacklers
UC- new QB, RB, return 3rd WR, 3 of top 11 tacklers
You didn't make them your #2 solely because of West Lyon did you?......
And for argument's sake, basically so you can't use this against me
SE- return top QB, 2nd, 3rd RB, their only WR "technically"...6 of top 11 tacklers (4 of 5 OL, if I knew other teams' I'd share)
MNW- return top QB, top RB, 4th WR, 3 of top 11 tacklers, and a couple of really big linemen
Ogden- new QB, return top RB, top WRs (West brothers), 4 of top 11 tacklers
SCC- new QB, return top RB, 2nd-4th WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers
SH- new QB, WR, return 2nd, 3rd RB, 5 of top 11 tacklers
Madrid- new QB, WR, return 2nd, 4th RB, 8 of top 11 tacklers (run heavy offense)
WA- new QB, WR, top 3 RBs, 4 of top 11 tacklers
I also didn't say I thought D7 was the best.
Very nice work Thunder BUT at this point of the season aren't we supposed to rank teams 100% solely on how they finished last year and not pay attention to trivial things like who's returning to a team and who's not?
Bottom line, IMO Regina repeats. Regina is actually stretching their wings even more by now scheduling up another quality team... Xavier. Looks to me like they are feeling confident they are having to go up a couple classes with their nonconference games to get the challenges they feel they need. Unless scheduling teams like Solon and Xavier finally becomes counterproductive with injuries, they are going to be that much tougher come playoff time.
(Seriously, that was a nice breakout of who has whom coming back).
This post was edited on 6/20 6:55 AM by ghost80
Bottom line, IMO Regina repeats. Regina is actually stretching their wings even more by now scheduling up another quality team... Xavier. Looks to me like they are feeling confident they are having to go up a couple classes with their nonconference games to get the challenges they feel they need. Unless scheduling teams like Solon and Xavier finally becomes counterproductive with injuries, they are going to be that much tougher come playoff time.
(Seriously, that was a nice breakout of who has whom coming back).
This post was edited on 6/20 6:55 AM by ghost80
Dark Thunder #61:
Tell me how the following 'secret' team did in the years listed below:
2008: returned 6 starting positions of 22
2009: returned 7 starting positions of 22
2010: returned 9 starting positions of 22
2011: returned 6 starting positions of 22
3 of the years the above example team(s) would return as little as the teams you list above.
Tell me how the following 'secret' team did in the years listed below:
2008: returned 6 starting positions of 22
2009: returned 7 starting positions of 22
2010: returned 9 starting positions of 22
2011: returned 6 starting positions of 22
3 of the years the above example team(s) would return as little as the teams you list above.
I think it'll be awhile before Regina stops scheduling Solon. That's as much about keeping a rivalry that formed when both schools were 2A, as it is about providing the players a challenge (although it wasn't much of a challenge last year, which speaks to the quality of Regina's lineup last year). If the city schools in Cedar Rapids soften their stance and show a willingness to schedule Xavier again, I think you'll see them back away from playing Regina, whether they're beating them or not. They just needed someone to step up and play them in non-district play and Regina was willing to do so.
I can tell you who those teams were, BlameIt.
WB went to the semifinals in each of those years. And I know that they didn't return much in the majority of those years. 2014 seems to be a rare year in which the Bears actually have a majority of their starters returning. 5 OL returning is a nice commodity to deal with.
WB went to the semifinals in each of those years. And I know that they didn't return much in the majority of those years. 2014 seems to be a rare year in which the Bears actually have a majority of their starters returning. 5 OL returning is a nice commodity to deal with.
Ah, so you tend to rely on the "Who's who" argument when making predictions.
I'll admit Coach Pedersen is one of the top coaches in the state and had a solid program built during that time (and still does), so that definitely factors into their run in that time span. But they also tend to be exceptions like Regina and Solon rather than the rule. Certain programs always reload because of the system their coaches have developed at their school, and certain schools also put together some decent runs thanks to a string of talented classes. West Branch seemed to have that going for them from 2008-2011. The only problem was that they'd always come up a game short of their ultimate goal.
And part of that appears to be due to facing a team (aside from more often than not just being the better team, at least on that day for argument's sake) that played a tougher schedule.
Obviously, I'm using BCMoore here so I'm sure that will go over well, but:
2011- 26th toughest schedule....lost 32-19 to Saint Ansgar- toughest schedule in 1A, according to BCM (also state champs)
2010- 37th toughest schedule....lost 21-14 to Dike-New Hartford- 2nd toughest schedule
2009- 34th toughest schedule....lost 14-7 to South Winn- 13th toughest schedule
2008- 28th toughest schedule....lost 27-7 to Emmetsburg- 6th toughest schedule (also state champs)
Then, of course, West Branch has had to deal with Regina the past two years (though they got beat out by MV last year), and could again depending on how the allegedly "new" tournament format works out.
Teams in West Branch's district, this year, faced fairly tough schedules last year (among the upper ranks in 1A), but is that the exception, is that the rule, or is that something you expect to become one or the other? Based on the last several years, I would tend to believe that last year was more of an exception than a rule as far as tough districts and schedules go, since I've looked up these teams going back to 2008. And having Regina around certainly looks nice on the bottom line, but it doesn't help your team personally advance up the corporate ladder, so to speak (seeing as how they're currently keeping everyone else down, and for what will probably be going on 5 years now).
I did happen to check BCM's preseason ranks (which are entirely based off of last year's results), and while he does have D2 as the top 1A district, he actually has D7 next in line, not D4, 5 or 6. Just thought that was interesting to note. And still I can't figure how D2 is being considered one of the 2 best in 1A this year outside of West Lyon's reputation alone. I'm gonna need a bit more clarification there.....
And just so we're staying on par here....
West Branch- return QB, 2nd and 3rd RB, 2nd-4th WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers (6-4 in 2014)
Wilton- new QB, return 3rd RB, 4th WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers (9-2)
Alburnett- new QB, RB, return all, but 2 WRs, including top WR, 8 of top 11 tacklers (5-4)
Bellevue- return QB, all but top RB, top WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers (3-6)
Durant- new QB, RB, return top WR, 6 of top 11 tacklers (0-9)
North Cedar- return QB, 2nd RB, 4th WR, 4 of top 11 tacklers (5-5)
Wapello- new QB, return all but 1 RB and WR, 8 of top 12 tacklers (3-6)
DarkThunder61
Thanks for doing all the leg work.
My point is that by showing what a team does or doesn't have returning, you are contending that I shouldn't say D7 is one of the weaker districts in the state.
Side note: BCMoore's ratings mean nothing to me. I have said it once, I will say it 100 more times - COMPUTERS DO NOT PLAY FOOTBALL. He had the state champion as the #2 team AFTER the season a couple of years ago (Regina)
HERE is the proof: http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2012/playoff5/1ARank.html
Lost full respect for his rankings after that.
I just wanted to prove to you that your theory of listing who a team has or doesn't have returning means very little for the better programs.
The traditional powerhouse teams have a small psychological advantage in a majority of there games based on the fact they have been successful. Please do not argue that. It is very much true.
At any rate, I appreciate your in depth statistics. But you will not change my mind. D7 is still in the bottom 4 in my book.
Thanks for doing all the leg work.
My point is that by showing what a team does or doesn't have returning, you are contending that I shouldn't say D7 is one of the weaker districts in the state.
Side note: BCMoore's ratings mean nothing to me. I have said it once, I will say it 100 more times - COMPUTERS DO NOT PLAY FOOTBALL. He had the state champion as the #2 team AFTER the season a couple of years ago (Regina)
HERE is the proof: http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2012/playoff5/1ARank.html
Lost full respect for his rankings after that.
I just wanted to prove to you that your theory of listing who a team has or doesn't have returning means very little for the better programs.
The traditional powerhouse teams have a small psychological advantage in a majority of there games based on the fact they have been successful. Please do not argue that. It is very much true.
At any rate, I appreciate your in depth statistics. But you will not change my mind. D7 is still in the bottom 4 in my book.
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