You won't hear it on the news

[BKHusky]

The 5 minutes of news I accidentally watched earlier was nothing short of the world is falling due to the coronavirus, but what you won't hear is this "southern wave", or whatever you want to call it, has pretty much peaked and is on the decline now in most areas. Those that haven't peaked yet (mainly Alabama/Mississippi, and perhaps Louisiana) will peak this week.

Not sure if it is true herd immunity or whatever it is, but this thing has behaved exactly the same wherever it has gone. Hospitalizations start surging, and in about 50 days they peak. It stays near that for a week or so, then starts to quickly decline. By September the south is going to be in a quick decline all over, and past whatever you consider this current wave.

 

[GADAWGinIraq]

More football please.

 

[BamaFan1137]

When I played high school football, living dangerously re: hydration made you tougher. It follows that we should do the same with covid. Not spitting on the ball carrier after making a tackle is an instant disqualification.

Herd immunity in CFB by November.

 

[HONKifUvCOACHED4BAMA]

When I played high school football, living dangerously re: hydration made you tougher. It follows that we should do the same with covid. Not spitting on the ball carrier after making a tackle is an instant disqualification.

Herd immunity in CFB by November.

Since when is cheerleading “playing football”?

 

[billywayneluck]

The 5 minutes of news I accidentally watched earlier was nothing short of the world is falling due to the coronavirus, but what you won't hear is this "southern wave", or whatever you want to call it, has pretty much peaked and is on the decline now in most areas. Those that haven't peaked yet (mainly Alabama/Mississippi, and perhaps Louisiana) will peak this week.

Not sure if it is true herd immunity or whatever it is, but this thing has behaved exactly the same wherever it has gone. Hospitalizations start surging, and in about 50 days they peak. It stays near that for a week or so, then starts to quickly decline. By September the south is going to be in a quick decline all over, and past whatever you consider this current wave.

I have friends in healthcare and we chatted about this. We have some thoughts.
1) There is a lot of data to suggest that the infection rate is underreported. By how much is a debate, but my suspicions are that it is wildly underreported - to the tune of 10x or more.

2) The states seeing a “wave” right now are areas that weren’t as hard hit in the spring. NYC and others contribute to have a lower infection rate. Partly due to opening more slowly, but when coupling their known infection rate with what I outlined in #1 above, they could be slower due to herd immunity taking hold as well.

3) The southern wave could be slowing because at 10 weeks into reopening, we are reaching the plateau that every other population sees at this time.

4) Most things should be reopened with precautions- masks, fewer people and some spacing. It is likely overkill, but we don’t have enough solid data to know what the true minimum is right now. However, life does have to go on, we can’t all stay holed up at home for a year and work has to get done for society to function.

5) Sports and large events (unfortunately) may be the one casualty until we have a better handle on this thing. The data is too unreliable to plan otherwise. I hate it too because we need some sports and entertainment to give people an outlet besides destroying cities.

6) Good progress on vaccines. Modera started a 30,000+ person trial today. Pfizer and J&J have better distribution systems and are making progress on their own. Net- could have multiple vaccine candidates, key will be timely production and distribution.

7) 30% immunity is the key point where the infection rate slows. 60% is where we near herd immunity and this thing becomes incidental.

 

[Bill_D]

I have predicted the

The 5 minutes of news I accidentally watched earlier was nothing short of the world is falling due to the coronavirus, but what you won't hear is this "southern wave", or whatever you want to call it, has pretty much peaked and is on the decline now in most areas. Those that haven't peaked yet (mainly Alabama/Mississippi, and perhaps Louisiana) will peak this week.

Not sure if it is true herd immunity or whatever it is, but this thing has behaved exactly the same wherever it has gone. Hospitalizations start surging, and in about 50 days they peak. It stays near that for a week or so, then starts to quickly decline. By September the south is going to be in a quick decline all over, and past whatever you consider this current wave.

I have predicted you can have football almost normal by the middle of September or the 1st of October and play the full season.

I read somewhere that herd immunity to viruses comes at an extremely low percent of the people having it. This is because many people’s immune systems are already immune to it and other people develop immunity quickly and never become asymptotic. Then there is the thing about the virus growing weaker with each transmission. I don’t know much about how this works, but some guy in England figured it in 1840 from his study of small pox.

 

[mtdew_fever]

I have friends in healthcare and we chatted about this. We have some thoughts.
1) There is a lot of data to suggest that the infection rate is underreported. By how much is a debate, but my suspicions are that it is wildly underreported - to the tune of 10x or more.

2) The states seeing a “wave” right now are areas that weren’t as hard hit in the spring. NYC and others contribute to have a lower infection rate. Partly due to opening more slowly, but when coupling their known infection rate with what I outlined in #1 above, they could be slower due to herd immunity taking hold as well.

3) The southern wave could be slowing because at 10 weeks into reopening, we are reaching the plateau that every other population sees at this time.

4) Most things should be reopened with precautions- masks, fewer people and some spacing. It is likely overkill, but we don’t have enough solid data to know what the true minimum is right now. However, life does have to go on, we can’t all stay holed up at home for a year and work has to get done for society to function.

5) Sports and large events (unfortunately) may be the one casualty until we have a better handle on this thing. The data is too unreliable to plan otherwise. I hate it too because we need some sports and entertainment to give people an outlet besides destroying cities.

6) Good progress on vaccines. Modera started a 30,000+ person trial today. Pfizer and J&J have better distribution systems and are making progress on their own. Net- could have multiple vaccine candidates, key will be timely production and distribution.

7) 30% immunity is the key point where the infection rate slows. 60% is where we near herd immunity and this thing becomes incidental.

I tend to agree. My fear isnt death, but more so having limited lung capacity as I know a few that even 1 mo after testing positive they still dont have it all back yet.

On a side note.....I own JNJ and Pfizer stock. Neither have done much since I bought them, but think what they are doing is positive.

 

[Pops Masterson]

I tend to agree. My fear isnt death, but more so having limited lung capacity as I know a few that even 1 mo after testing positive they still dont have it all back yet.

On a side note.....I own JNJ and Pfizer stock. Neither have done much since I bought them, but think what they are doing is positive.

I previously worked for both, more on the surgical side with JNJ. @derek_tiger is a good resource on this too.

JNJ is actively pursuing a China flu vax. I have to assume Pfizer is too, but I know for a fact JNJ is.

 

[billywayneluck]

I previously worked for both, more on the surgical side with JNJ. @derek_tiger is a good resource on this too.

JNJ is actively pursuing a China flu vax. I have to assume Pfizer is too, but I know for a fact JNJ is.

I own both too. One of the positives for JNJ is their distribution capability. Moderna is cool but they don’t have the bazillion bottles and distribution network that JNJ has.

I think there will be some expansion or partnerships to get this stuff in the street faster.

I’m also still interested if a therapeutic can hit the street earlier and in larger numbers to buy us some breathing room until the vaccine is more widespread. Gilead was one of the leaders there along with Pfizer.

 

[Sanctions Stand]

Since when is cheerleading “playing football”?

Greg McElroy found a new job a Dexter. Congrats.

 

[mobala_tiger62]

I previously worked for both, more on the surgical side with JNJ. @derek_tiger is a good resource on this too.

JNJ is actively pursuing a China flu vax. I have to assume Pfizer is too, but I know for a fact JNJ is.

I think Pfizer sh^t in their mess kit yesterday when their CEO called out Trump. He had given them a $1.5B order for vaccines.

None of them like the idea that he wants the price of drugs to come down and wants them made in the USA. That guy came of as an arrogant POS with a condescending European accent,. Maybe derek knows who he is.

 

[HONKifUvCOACHED4BAMA]

I think Pfizer sh^t in their mess kit yesterday when their CEO called out Trump. He had given them a $1.5B order for vaccines.

None of them like the idea that he wants the price of drugs to come down and wants them made in the USA. That guy came of as an arrogant POS with a condescending European accent,. Maybe derek knows who he is.

Where the hayell is derek? Is he still
Collecting nickels and olD solid copper pennies waiting for the dollar to collapse?

 

[BamaFan1137]

I think Pfizer sh^t in their mess kit yesterday when their CEO called out Trump. He had given them a $1.5B order for vaccines.

None of them like the idea that he wants the price of drugs to come down and wants them made in the USA. That guy came of as an arrogant POS with a condescending European accent,. Maybe derek knows who he is.

I understood his point. Private companies don't need permission to turn a profit.

OTOH, they have received substantial government funding so, when you accept that, it comes with strings attached.

 

[Pops Masterson]

I think Pfizer sh^t in their mess kit yesterday when their CEO called out Trump. He had given them a $1.5B order for vaccines.

None of them like the idea that he wants the price of drugs to come down and wants them made in the USA. That guy came of as an arrogant POS with a condescending European accent,. Maybe derek knows who he is.

Both CEOs are libs. I don’t understand it.