what is the best predictor of how a team does the

[DSMan]

following year? Is it number of starters returning, number of all conference players returning, previous record, intangibles, a combination of all of that?

I always have a futuristic look on things to see how teams will be in the future. What's more exciting is figuring out who/when the next dark horse team will be (SE Polk with Snead, Marshalltown with Creekmur). In central Iowa, I thought that returning all conference players would be a good proxy and thought Waukee might go 9-0 having returned seven players that were first or second team all district. It's still possible Waukee upsets Dowling in the playoffs (Ankeny nearly beat Dowling in the playoffs after losing 42-0 in the regular season). But I'm surprised Allen hasn't averaged more than six yards per carry in any game. I would have thought he would have put up Mensah or Mason type numbers this year.

Also, I think in the western half, we might be in the midst of a long streak rivaling that of 1998-2005 where the best team in the western half was either Dowling or Valley (Valley would have made it to the title game in 99 under the current system). Ankeny had traditionally played the role of foil to Dowling and Valley, but having split in half it may take a decade or so to recover from the split. SE Polk also seems to have regressed to what they were pre-2004. That leaves Waukee as a potential contender but the clock is probably ticking if the below link is any indication.

2014-2015 numbers

 

[DarkThunder#61]

I find that it's a combination of a number of things. Obviously, you generally can't always predict what will happen. That's why we have upsets. But there's usually a small list of indicators that let's people know how a team is going to be in a given year:

Returning starters- (this is the perfect place to start. Familiarity makes a huge difference, especially at the high school level. Groups that have been together for a year or more just seem to get better with each passing year- though a few other factors certainly contribute, and you'll see below)

Top returning skills/stats players- (Within the returning starters, you have to look at what each team returns at QB, RB, WR, and even their production on defense. I'd love to be able to know what teams return for linemen as it would make it so much easier to get an idea of how a team is going to do each year, because most teams' success or failure depends on line play. You can have an athletic scrambler at QB who just needs 5 guys to get in a defense's way, but honestly those aren't a dime a dozen. You still need some protection, especially in these offenses that are geared more towards the pass and option out of the spread. Also knowing what kind of offense that team runs can be important. If they're a pass-heavy team and they lose their top 3 RBs, it may not be all that bad especially if they return their top QB and any of their top 3 WRs.)

Defensive stats- (A good defense can keep you in ball games. It's not often but there are some cases where a team is breaking in new offensive skill players, but returns a good majority of its defense, particularly within its top 11 tacklers, which doesn't necessarily mean starters. Last year's New Hampton team (2A) is a good example. They lost some of their top offensive players but returned a lot of their best defensive players. They ran the table in the regular season before losing to the eventual runner-up in the playoffs, and they had one of the better defenses in that class. Of course that brings me to the next factor.)

Unknowns/JV players- (It's always hard to tell just how JV kids pan out, but more often than not, in good football programs, there's always that "next man in" attitude where you see those younger kids bide their time until it gets to be their shot to play as juniors and/or seniors and it looks like that team didn't even miss a beat. Knowing what a team has for JV players is a plus, but is also about as hard if not harder for the casual fan to know as what teams return for (starting) linemen, because the stats just aren't out there to find. You'd have to be familiar with that team or area to really know.)

Miscellaneous: coaching/program/maintained success, etc- (There's a reason why the most successful coaches, guys you've heard of regardless of class level, are always winning/having good teams. They've built good programs from top to bottom, gotten their kids to buy into it, and have good, hard-working assistant coaches to support them. I've come to find out that a head coach is only as good as his assistants, at least in football. The head coach can implement the system, but he needs the help of his assistants to see that the kids are getting it, not to mention all the things they do during the game. Another factor is, of course, success. Winning is contagious, if you've never heard that before...A team wins a state title and suddenly everyone wants to play football and be a part of the team. And with a good coaching staff, the next group has that much more motivation to keep that success going. That is one of those factors you can't really see on paper, other than in the final scores. Only then is when you see that play out. Dowling is a program that feeds off of success. They may lose good players each year, but with the program and coaching staff that they have, there's always that motivation to keep the train going the following season and not let it slide off the tracks. And there's several other programs like that as well. Take Iowa City Regina for example. They didn't simply have an all-star class of freshmen that won 4 straight state titles. They had to reload each year to maintain that level of success.)


Those are most of the things I try to look at when predicting an upcoming season. As for all-conference players, the one thing that would help with is identifying some of the returning linemen a team may have. For example if a team returns a 1st team OT and DT and a 2nd team OG and DE then you know they've got a few guys in the trenches to rely on and you'd have to think they'll be tougher than your average team.

 

[CYBALLS]

I think in Waukee, it has to do with coaching more than anything else. Waukee has numbers, Waukee has talent but they get out coached in the games that matters. Until they come up with that solution they won't play the spoiler to Dowling or Valley.

 

[DSMan]

Originally posted by CYBALLS:
I think in Waukee, it has to do with coaching more than anything else. Waukee has numbers, Waukee has talent but they get out coached in the games that matters. Until they come up with that solution they won't play the spoiler to Dowling or Valley.

don't forget that Waukee had no success to speak of in football before the current coach was there. He is to Waukee what Mihalovich was to Lincoln - someone who could put some occasional success into what was previously a doormat.

 

[CYBALLS]

True, but the success followed the student population. They started to get good when they were the biggest team in 3a and lost to Harlan each year. Then they were mediocre for a while in 4a until the population grew to catch up. Every year since growing to a 4a school they have not been able to get over the hump, usually ending in very lopsided losses. Last year was truly the best chance they had to go to the dome until the current 5th and 6th grade players get to be Juniors and Seniors. They had lots of talent and depth. This year they have talent but no depth. They always struggle to build depth as they don't run a 4a program. From 8th grade to Sophomores, the Head Coach doesn't put much say into how the development of the players are progressing. Once they get to be Juniors is when he starts to pay attention to the players. By then it's too late. Not to mention, not making changes on game nights. Dowling comes out with a stacked Wide receiver set and they stay in Cover 2 and still give huge cushions on the corners and safeties. I can see one series not changing but to keep it and get scored on at will is simply not good coaching.

 

[DSMan]

Originally posted by CYBALLS:
True, but the success followed the student population. They started to get good when they were the biggest team in 3a and lost to Harlan each year. Then they were mediocre for a while in 4a until the population grew to catch up. Every year since growing to a 4a school they have not been able to get over the hump, usually ending in very lopsided losses. Last year was truly the best chance they had to go to the dome until the current 5th and 6th grade players get to be Juniors and Seniors. They had lots of talent and depth. This year they have talent but no depth. They always struggle to build depth as they don't run a 4a program. From 8th grade to Sophomores, the Head Coach doesn't put much say into how the development of the players are progressing. Once they get to be Juniors is when he starts to pay attention to the players. By then it's too late. Not to mention, not making changes on game nights. Dowling comes out with a stacked Wide receiver set and they stay in Cover 2 and still give huge cushions on the corners and safeties. I can see one series not changing but to keep it and get scored on at will is simply not good coaching.

is it coaching or just not getting along with the coaches? There were a decent number of kids i knew in my grade (Dowling '09) and especially in the grade above me that didn't get along with the coaches at Dowling.

This post was edited on 10/2 12:56 AM by DSMan

 

[Hawksince73]

This probably helps a little.

From Jeff Johnson of the CR Gazette: Washington varsity, sophomores, freshmen and JV all are undefeated. Not bad, I guess. #iahsfb