Week 9 Preview and Beyond

[Charles86]

With the final week of the regular season approaching, here are some key games to look for:

District 4: Bellevue @ Cascade, Western Dubuque
District 6: Dike-New Hartford @ Regina, Iowa City
District 7: I-35, Truro @ Pella Christian
District 9: Missouri Valley @ Underwood

Bellevue @ Cascade: Cascade had a high RPI going into their game against West Branch, and even with a loss they might still be right around the 15-16 mark. They can get in with a win, but that would have to be against undefeated Bellevue. They do get this game at home, but a lot of this depends on the status of Bellevue rb Hunter Clasen. He's been dealing with a high ankle sprain for the last couple of weeks, so there's no telling how much it will affect him during this game, assuming he's ready to go. I don't think he played in week 8. Bellevue wins and the district title is theirs, but a loss could give the title to WB because of higher RPI.

Dike-New Hartford @ Regina: This game was highlighted on the schedule for both teams before the season began. It was no question that this would be for the district title and that both teams would be undefeated in district play coming into week 9. Regina has been rounding into form the last few games by having a great balance of run/pass within their offense. They have also been able to get guys back from injuries, most notably qb Ashton Cook. DNH hasn't had competition since a home win vs 2A Union back in week 4. They will have to go the full 4 quarters in this game, so will they be ready for a full-length contest? Regina needs to win to get into the playoffs, while DNH is in no matter what, but would like to claim that district title on Regina's field. Athletes will be plenty in this game. Should be fun.

I-35, Truro @ Pella Christian: I-35 is quite possibly one of the surprise teams in class 1A. They have a nice balance on offense with a near 1,000 yard passer, and a 1,000-yard rusher in Mason Cassidy. They are again a balanced team and those teams can be hard to deal with. They got by Pleasantville last night, and can now fully set their sights on PC. PC has breezed by their district competition so far after a grueling non-district slate. They have don't air it out that much with Jungling, as they like to get Noah Treimer involved more in the ground game, and also use him a bit in a receiving role. They are very opportunistic on defense with several interceptions and I believe 10 fumbles recovered. They have talent and speed to burn.

Missouri Valley @ Underwood: I put this game on here, more so for Underwood, because Underwood has a real shot at sliding into the playoffs with their RPI. Sumner-Fredericksburg's loss to AP last night has opened the door, even though SF should still be in a position to get in. Underwood will move ahead of Woodward-Granger and Sigourney-Keota in the rankings. They were neck and neck with South Hamilton in last week's RPI and will be close again. They need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their opponents' record is one of the stronger ones in the class which will help them greatly, assuming they win in week 9.

District Champs:
District 1: West Sioux
District 2: South Central Calhoun
District 3: Osage
District 5: Wilton
District 8: Van Meter
District 9: Treynor

The district's yet to be settled:
4, 6, 7

Teams that are in the playoffs regardless:
Bellevue
West Lyon
Mount Ayr
Dike-New Hartford
West Branch
Mediapolis
I-35, Truro

Teams in the hunt for the last three spots:
Regina, Iowa City
South Hamilton
Sumner-Fredericksburg
Underwood
Cascade

*Regina winning in week 9 takes one spot away from the others in the last group. The other teams are hoping DNH takes care of business. South Hamilton was 19 in last week's RPI, but a couple teams ahead of them lost last night so they will move up. Same with Underwood, as they are one spot being SH at 20 but will elevate. Cascade was 12 in RPI before their lost to WB last night. They should still be around the 16 mark which a win over Bellevue in week 9 should put them in. SF had a bad loss to AP last night, as they were 11 in the RPI coming in. They will drop, but the question is how far? I'm guessing 3-4 spots but should still be inside the top 16. A lot yet to be settled in week 9. Once RPI rankings come out on Monday, I will put together who I think will be in the playoffs and what the first round games could potentially be. Wow, that was a lot to get through, but it's fun doing it. Hope everyone has appreciated my thoughts on the season, as I have greatly valued yours. Can't believe it's week 9 already. But, I'm looking forward to it and ready for the playoffs to begin!

 

[GoEagles23]

Mepo is not a lock.

If they lose to Sigourney, they are out.

 

[Charles86]

Mepo is not a lock.

If they lose to Sigourney, they are out.

Of course these posts are just my opinions, but they aren’t losing to SK. SK just lost to a bad Wapello team and now travels to Mepo. Mepo will be in the playoffs.

 

[nwmsbearcat]

Bellevue wins and the district title is theirs, but a loss could give the title to WB because of higher RPI.

If Cascade finds a way to beat Bellevue this week, that would create a 3-way tie for the district championship. In addition, Cascade, WB and Bellevue would've all beaten each other (meaning Cascade beats Bellevue, Bellevue beat WB, and WB beat Cascade). In this case according to the post-season manual, they will all be automatic qualifiers as long as there aren't three other districts that have the same type of 3-way tie (very, very, very unlikely).
(Post-Season Manual: "If all teams have defeated each other, the team with the highest RPI will be determined to be the district champion and have the opportunity to host. The remaining teams are potential automatic qualifiers.")

So if Cascade wins, all 3 teams are most likely all in.

Yes, the highest RPI of the 3-way tie will be the "district champion" for hosting purposes, but all three teams almost certainly be automatic qualifiers.

 

[GoEagles23]

West Branch would have the best RPI in that scenario given their opponents record is certain to be better than the other two and would life their RPI above Bellevue.

 

[GoEagles23]

Of course these posts are just my opinions, but they aren’t losing to SK. SK just lost to a bad Wapello team and now travels to Mepo. Mepo will be in the playoffs.

BC Moore had Sumner beating AP by 20 points. AP beat Sumner by 15.

I think SK has a better chance of beating Mepo than Regina has of beating Dike. Nobody outside the Regina circle would disagree, I'm guessing.

 

[GoEagles23]

Of course these posts are just my opinions, but they aren’t losing to SK. SK just lost to a bad Wapello team and now travels to Mepo. Mepo will be in the playoffs.

No problem on giving opinions. But you said "Mepo is in regardless (of a win or loss)" which is not an opinion. Jussayin.
I like your posts. Keeps this dead board alive.

 

[Charles86]

No problem on giving opinions. But you said "Mepo is in regardless (of a win or loss)" which is not an opinion. Jussayin.
I like your posts. Keeps this dead board alive.

Mepo will elevate up the RPI due to SF, Cascade, and someone else losing. They should be close to the top 10. If they do happen to lose, their RPI will be good enough.

 

[Charles86]

But, we will have to wait until Friday to see how things turn out. I’m just excited it’s almost playoff time.

 

[rc1963]

BC Moore had Sumner beating AP by 20 points. AP beat Sumner by 15.

I think SK has a better chance of beating Mepo than Regina has of beating Dike. Nobody outside the Regina circle would disagree, I'm guessing.

I don't think anybody, inside or outside any circles thinks that Regina has a good change of beating DNH, but they do have a chance...it's why they bother to play the games.

I don't think anybody in or out of any circles thinks that SF is a top 10 team or that Treynor would qualify this year if they weren't in such a weak district. But that's the framework, those are the rules and all the teams play within them. The only "unfair" deal is the ND schedule probably that is pretty universally seen as unfair to the RPI.

That said, I don't think it really matters, just like it didn't matter when 32 made the playoffs. I think the top 4-7 teams right now are probably going to the dome, and even if someone knocks one or two of them off, I'd be willing to bet it will be one of those 4-7 who hoists the trophy at the end. The whole discussion of who that last 3 are in the top 10, or the other 9 into the playoffs only matters in the context that someone gets an extra game, maybe two, which is always good for a program.