One week to go. So I reckon this is the time to do the final one of these for the year. I make my prognostications by virtue of history, tradition, BC Moore Rating, Screwloose Ranking, home field advantage, tarot cards and calls to the Psychotic Friends Network. That being said, let's kick some names and take some ass...
As to avoid the confusion, teams are NOT bracketed. The games for each side of the state are grouped; first group are the #4 @ #1 seed match-ups, the second group are the #3 @ #2 match-ups. I don't believe the state has made official what they plan on doing in the Second Round, so there's no way of attempting to bracket without knowing who will have won in the First Round. My guess would be that winners from the first group(4/1) will be matched-up with someone from the second group(3/2), but there's no way of knowing.
Division 1...
Things have pretty much shaken down like I'd predicted a month ago. Got the sense that the tough schedule Southeast Polk had played was the reason for their subpar record at that point. Ankeny plays them for the Division title this coming weekend. Barring a reversal of that horrendous decision on Friday, Ames is stuck in the #3 spot. Sioux City North and Des Moines East play on Friday for the final playoff spot.
PROJECTION:
D1-1: Southeast Polk, 5-0 / 6-3
D1-2: Ankeny, 4-1 / 6-3
D1-3: Ames, 3-2 / 5-4
D1-4: Sioux City North, 2-3 / 4-5
Division 2...
If there was a surprise in any division it was here. Actually a couple, one being West Des Moines Dowling lost a game this year and the other being Council Bluffs Lewis Central making a near seamless transition from 3A to 4A. Both are locked into first and second, respectively. Johnston and Sioux City East play for the #3 spot, though each have clinched, the winner looks to have a little easier opponent come the First Round next Wednesday.
PROJECTION:
D2-1: West Des Moines Dowling, 5-0 / 8-1
D2-2: Council Bluffs Lewis Central, 4-1 / 8-1
D2-3: Johnston, 3-2 / 6-3
D2-4: Sioux City East, 2-3 / 6-3
Division 3...
Although the fate of this division champion has been determined by West Des Moines Valley beating Ankeny Centennial last week, the third and fourth spots are up for grabs. Des Moines Lincoln has clinched at least a playoff spot. If they end up in a two-way tie with Des Moines Hoover or three-way tie with Council Bluffs Lincoln also, they would finish ahead of Hoover by either head-to-head(two-team) or the 13-point tiebreaker(three-team). In a three-team scenario, CB Lincoln would get the final playoff spot and probably the #3 seed, unless DM Lincoln would lose by 1 or 2 points this Friday and CB Lincoln lost by 13 or more, at which case DM Lincoln would be the #3. If DM Hoover AND DM Lincoln won and CB Lincoln lost this Friday, DM Hoover would get the #4 seed and CB Lincoln would be eliminated. If DM Hoover loses, the other two qualify automatically.
PROJECTION:
D3-1: West Des Moines Valley, 5-0 / 8-1
D3-2: Ankeny Centennial, 4-1 / 7-2
D3-3: Council Bluffs Lincoln, 2-3 / 4-5
D3-4: Des Moines Lincoln, 2-3 / 3-6
Division 4...
Waukee looked like the class of this division from the very beginning and they've not disappointed. Fort Dodge has probably been a little better than people expected and Urbandale a little worse, alas, they play Friday for second place and a First Round home game. A similar situation arises here in Division 4 for the final spot as Division 3. As bad as the year has gone for Marshalltown, they are still alive for the playoffs. A likely Mason City loss to Waukee and Marshalltown victory over Indianola would create a three-way tie for the final spot. In this scenario, a Marshalltown victory by 9 or more points and a Mason City loss would put Marshalltown in. An 8 point win by Marshalltown, couple with a Mason City loss would give the final spot to Indianola. A Mason City or Indianola win and a loss by the other would put the victor in. A win by both would put Indianola in, unless Mason City won by 10 more points than Indianola and Indianola won over Marshalltown by 3 points or less. Crazy scenarios here.
PROJECTION:
D4-1: Waukee, 5-0 / 8-1
D4-2: Urbandale, 4-1 / 5-4
D4-3: Fort Dodge, 3-2 / 6-3
D4-4: Indianola, 2-3 / 5-4
Division 5...
Marion Linn-Mar has clinched this division with their win over Cedar Falls a couple weeks ago. Another one of these three-way tie scenarios for two spots exists here. Waterloo West could end the hassle by beating Cedar Rapids Kennedy. Doing such could still result in a tie for third, but the playoff entries would be confirmed at least. If Kennedy does win Friday, Cedar Rapids Jefferson could qualify themselves with an upset of Linn-Mar. In this scenario, Jefferson would be the #3 and Kennedy the #4. However, if Jefferson loses and Kennedy beats Waterloo West, we have a three-way tie. In this scenario, Kennedy would end up as the #3. If Waterloo West loses by 9 or less points to Kennedy and Jefferson loses by 4 more than Waterloo West does, Waterloo West would get the #4. If Waterloo West would lose by 10 or more, or Jefferson loses to Linn-Mar by 3 or less than Waterloo West loses to Kennedy, Jefferson gets the #4. Yuck!
PROJECTION:
D5-1: Marion Linn-Mar, 5-0 / 8-1
D5-2: Cedar Falls, 4-1 / 7-2
D5-3: Cedar Rapids Kennedy, 2-3 / 2-7
D5-4: Cedar Rapids Jefferson, 2-3 / 4-5
Division 6...
Guess what? A possible three-way tie. Cedar Rapids Washington has been rolling all year with only one little close call. Muscatine has been pretty consistent as well, but with one close call as well. Each are firmly set to host in the First Round. As with Division 5, Ottumwa could end all the suspense and eliminate Cedar Rapids Prairie themselves. Doing so would give Ottumwa the #3. Iowa City High can clinch a spot on their own with a smaller upset of Muscatine, they would be the #4 if Ottumwa dispatched of Prairie. If IC High would win along with CR Prairie, they would both be in as the #3 and #4, respectively and Ottumwa would be out. In a three-way tie scenario, Ottumwa would qualify over Prairie, even if they lost by the maximum 13 points toward the tiebreaker. Meaning Prairie would need to beat Ottumwa by 8 more points than IC High would lose to Muscatine. Not as crazy as the others.
PROJECTION:
D6-1: Cedar Rapids Washington, 5-0 / 9-0
D6-2: Muscatine, 4-1 / 7-2
D6-3: Ottumwa, 3-2 / 6-3
D6-4: Iowa City High, 2-3 / 2-7
Division 7...
Two seeding games will be played in this division on Friday. The champion will be decided when Pleasant Valley travels to Iowa City West. Third place will be decided when Davenport Central goes to Dubuque Hempstead. A very straight forward district that happened to go rank-and-file with the decider games last. If they could all be this easy.
PROJECTION:
D7-1: Pleasant Valley, 4-0 / 6-3
D7-2: Iowa City West, 3-1 / 5-4
D7-3: Dubuque Hempstead, 2-2 / 6-3
D7-4: Davenport Central, 1-3 / 4-5
Division 8...
Bettendorf, period. They've been a class above the rest most of the year. They had one out of division hiccup but pulled through to remain one of two undefeated teams. North Scott has clinched the #2 and been pretty convincing doing it. Dubuque Senior plays at Clinton to decide the #3 and #4 seeds, both have clinched otherwise.
PROJECTION:
D8-1: Bettendorf, 4-0 / 9-0
D8-2: North Scott, 4-1 / 7-2
D8-3: Dubuque Senior, 2-2 / 5-4
D8-4: Clinton, 1-3 / 2-7
PROJECTED FIRST ROUND PLAYOFF PAIRINGS...
#4's @ 1's...
Sioux City North(4-5) @ Waukee(8-1)
Sioux City East(6-3) @ Southeast Polk(6-3)
Des Moines Lincoln(3-6) @ West Des Moines Dowling(8-1)
Indianola(5-4) @ West Des Moines Valley(8-1)
Cedar Rapids Jefferson(4-5) @ Bettendorf(9-0)
Iowa City High(2-7) @ Pleasant Valley(6-3)
Davenport Central(4-5) @ Marion Linn-Mar(8-1)
Clinton(2-7) @ Cedar Rapids Washington(9-0)
#3's @ 2's...
Ames(5-4) @ Urbandale(5-4)
Johnston(6-3) @ Ankeny Centennial(7-2)
Council Bluffs Lincoln(4-5) @ Ankeny(6-3)
Fort Dodge(6-3) @ Council Bluffs Lewis Central(8-1)
Cedar Rapids Kennedy(2-7) @ Muscatine(7-2)
Ottumwa(6-3) @ Iowa City West(5-4)
Dubuque Hempstead(6-3) @ North Scott(7-2)
Dubuque Senior(5-4) @ Cedar Falls(7-2)
This post was edited on 10/24 12:56 AM by screwloose
As to avoid the confusion, teams are NOT bracketed. The games for each side of the state are grouped; first group are the #4 @ #1 seed match-ups, the second group are the #3 @ #2 match-ups. I don't believe the state has made official what they plan on doing in the Second Round, so there's no way of attempting to bracket without knowing who will have won in the First Round. My guess would be that winners from the first group(4/1) will be matched-up with someone from the second group(3/2), but there's no way of knowing.
Division 1...
Things have pretty much shaken down like I'd predicted a month ago. Got the sense that the tough schedule Southeast Polk had played was the reason for their subpar record at that point. Ankeny plays them for the Division title this coming weekend. Barring a reversal of that horrendous decision on Friday, Ames is stuck in the #3 spot. Sioux City North and Des Moines East play on Friday for the final playoff spot.
PROJECTION:
D1-1: Southeast Polk, 5-0 / 6-3
D1-2: Ankeny, 4-1 / 6-3
D1-3: Ames, 3-2 / 5-4
D1-4: Sioux City North, 2-3 / 4-5
Division 2...
If there was a surprise in any division it was here. Actually a couple, one being West Des Moines Dowling lost a game this year and the other being Council Bluffs Lewis Central making a near seamless transition from 3A to 4A. Both are locked into first and second, respectively. Johnston and Sioux City East play for the #3 spot, though each have clinched, the winner looks to have a little easier opponent come the First Round next Wednesday.
PROJECTION:
D2-1: West Des Moines Dowling, 5-0 / 8-1
D2-2: Council Bluffs Lewis Central, 4-1 / 8-1
D2-3: Johnston, 3-2 / 6-3
D2-4: Sioux City East, 2-3 / 6-3
Division 3...
Although the fate of this division champion has been determined by West Des Moines Valley beating Ankeny Centennial last week, the third and fourth spots are up for grabs. Des Moines Lincoln has clinched at least a playoff spot. If they end up in a two-way tie with Des Moines Hoover or three-way tie with Council Bluffs Lincoln also, they would finish ahead of Hoover by either head-to-head(two-team) or the 13-point tiebreaker(three-team). In a three-team scenario, CB Lincoln would get the final playoff spot and probably the #3 seed, unless DM Lincoln would lose by 1 or 2 points this Friday and CB Lincoln lost by 13 or more, at which case DM Lincoln would be the #3. If DM Hoover AND DM Lincoln won and CB Lincoln lost this Friday, DM Hoover would get the #4 seed and CB Lincoln would be eliminated. If DM Hoover loses, the other two qualify automatically.
PROJECTION:
D3-1: West Des Moines Valley, 5-0 / 8-1
D3-2: Ankeny Centennial, 4-1 / 7-2
D3-3: Council Bluffs Lincoln, 2-3 / 4-5
D3-4: Des Moines Lincoln, 2-3 / 3-6
Division 4...
Waukee looked like the class of this division from the very beginning and they've not disappointed. Fort Dodge has probably been a little better than people expected and Urbandale a little worse, alas, they play Friday for second place and a First Round home game. A similar situation arises here in Division 4 for the final spot as Division 3. As bad as the year has gone for Marshalltown, they are still alive for the playoffs. A likely Mason City loss to Waukee and Marshalltown victory over Indianola would create a three-way tie for the final spot. In this scenario, a Marshalltown victory by 9 or more points and a Mason City loss would put Marshalltown in. An 8 point win by Marshalltown, couple with a Mason City loss would give the final spot to Indianola. A Mason City or Indianola win and a loss by the other would put the victor in. A win by both would put Indianola in, unless Mason City won by 10 more points than Indianola and Indianola won over Marshalltown by 3 points or less. Crazy scenarios here.
PROJECTION:
D4-1: Waukee, 5-0 / 8-1
D4-2: Urbandale, 4-1 / 5-4
D4-3: Fort Dodge, 3-2 / 6-3
D4-4: Indianola, 2-3 / 5-4
Division 5...
Marion Linn-Mar has clinched this division with their win over Cedar Falls a couple weeks ago. Another one of these three-way tie scenarios for two spots exists here. Waterloo West could end the hassle by beating Cedar Rapids Kennedy. Doing such could still result in a tie for third, but the playoff entries would be confirmed at least. If Kennedy does win Friday, Cedar Rapids Jefferson could qualify themselves with an upset of Linn-Mar. In this scenario, Jefferson would be the #3 and Kennedy the #4. However, if Jefferson loses and Kennedy beats Waterloo West, we have a three-way tie. In this scenario, Kennedy would end up as the #3. If Waterloo West loses by 9 or less points to Kennedy and Jefferson loses by 4 more than Waterloo West does, Waterloo West would get the #4. If Waterloo West would lose by 10 or more, or Jefferson loses to Linn-Mar by 3 or less than Waterloo West loses to Kennedy, Jefferson gets the #4. Yuck!
PROJECTION:
D5-1: Marion Linn-Mar, 5-0 / 8-1
D5-2: Cedar Falls, 4-1 / 7-2
D5-3: Cedar Rapids Kennedy, 2-3 / 2-7
D5-4: Cedar Rapids Jefferson, 2-3 / 4-5
Division 6...
Guess what? A possible three-way tie. Cedar Rapids Washington has been rolling all year with only one little close call. Muscatine has been pretty consistent as well, but with one close call as well. Each are firmly set to host in the First Round. As with Division 5, Ottumwa could end all the suspense and eliminate Cedar Rapids Prairie themselves. Doing so would give Ottumwa the #3. Iowa City High can clinch a spot on their own with a smaller upset of Muscatine, they would be the #4 if Ottumwa dispatched of Prairie. If IC High would win along with CR Prairie, they would both be in as the #3 and #4, respectively and Ottumwa would be out. In a three-way tie scenario, Ottumwa would qualify over Prairie, even if they lost by the maximum 13 points toward the tiebreaker. Meaning Prairie would need to beat Ottumwa by 8 more points than IC High would lose to Muscatine. Not as crazy as the others.
PROJECTION:
D6-1: Cedar Rapids Washington, 5-0 / 9-0
D6-2: Muscatine, 4-1 / 7-2
D6-3: Ottumwa, 3-2 / 6-3
D6-4: Iowa City High, 2-3 / 2-7
Division 7...
Two seeding games will be played in this division on Friday. The champion will be decided when Pleasant Valley travels to Iowa City West. Third place will be decided when Davenport Central goes to Dubuque Hempstead. A very straight forward district that happened to go rank-and-file with the decider games last. If they could all be this easy.
PROJECTION:
D7-1: Pleasant Valley, 4-0 / 6-3
D7-2: Iowa City West, 3-1 / 5-4
D7-3: Dubuque Hempstead, 2-2 / 6-3
D7-4: Davenport Central, 1-3 / 4-5
Division 8...
Bettendorf, period. They've been a class above the rest most of the year. They had one out of division hiccup but pulled through to remain one of two undefeated teams. North Scott has clinched the #2 and been pretty convincing doing it. Dubuque Senior plays at Clinton to decide the #3 and #4 seeds, both have clinched otherwise.
PROJECTION:
D8-1: Bettendorf, 4-0 / 9-0
D8-2: North Scott, 4-1 / 7-2
D8-3: Dubuque Senior, 2-2 / 5-4
D8-4: Clinton, 1-3 / 2-7
PROJECTED FIRST ROUND PLAYOFF PAIRINGS...
#4's @ 1's...
Sioux City North(4-5) @ Waukee(8-1)
Sioux City East(6-3) @ Southeast Polk(6-3)
Des Moines Lincoln(3-6) @ West Des Moines Dowling(8-1)
Indianola(5-4) @ West Des Moines Valley(8-1)
Cedar Rapids Jefferson(4-5) @ Bettendorf(9-0)
Iowa City High(2-7) @ Pleasant Valley(6-3)
Davenport Central(4-5) @ Marion Linn-Mar(8-1)
Clinton(2-7) @ Cedar Rapids Washington(9-0)
#3's @ 2's...
Ames(5-4) @ Urbandale(5-4)
Johnston(6-3) @ Ankeny Centennial(7-2)
Council Bluffs Lincoln(4-5) @ Ankeny(6-3)
Fort Dodge(6-3) @ Council Bluffs Lewis Central(8-1)
Cedar Rapids Kennedy(2-7) @ Muscatine(7-2)
Ottumwa(6-3) @ Iowa City West(5-4)
Dubuque Hempstead(6-3) @ North Scott(7-2)
Dubuque Senior(5-4) @ Cedar Falls(7-2)
This post was edited on 10/24 12:56 AM by screwloose
