Updated Football Rankings - 9/27

[LukeFeddersen]

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Class 4A
1 .) Southeast Polk 4-0 (Previous: # 1 )
2 .) Urbandale 5-0 (Previous: # 2 )
3 .) Dowling Catholic 3-1 (Previous: # 4 )
4 .) Waukee 3-2 (Previous: # 6 )
5 .) Ankeny 4-1 (Previous: # 5 )
6 .) Dubuque Hempstead 4-1 (Previous: # 7 )
7 .) Pleasant Valley 5-0 (Previous: # Not Rated )
8 .) Johnston 3-2 (Previous: # 3 )
9 .) Iowa City West 2-0 (Previous: # 8 )
10 .) Cedar Falls 2-2 (Previous: # 10 )

 

[mcgill2020]

Who feels sorry for 1-3 Valley?? 😄

 

[gofor2bro]

Urbandale is not 2... i get they are undefeated but havent played anyone. They almost lost to fort dodge with out fort dodges running back.

 

[27 Toss]

Add your thoughts by replying to this post now!


Class 4A
1 .) Southeast Polk 4-0 (Previous: # 1 )
2 .) Urbandale 5-0 (Previous: # 2 )
3 .) Dowling Catholic 3-1 (Previous: # 4 )
4 .) Waukee 3-2 (Previous: # 6 )
5 .) Ankeny 4-1 (Previous: # 5 )
6 .) Dubuque Hempstead 4-1 (Previous: # 7 )
7 .) Pleasant Valley 5-0 (Previous: # Not Rated )
8 .) Johnston 3-2 (Previous: # 3 )
9 .) Iowa City West 2-0 (Previous: # 8 )
10 .) Cedar Falls 2-2 (Previous: # 10 )

I think the interesting one here is ICW, where do they end up if they finish unbeaten in regular season? I think SEP is head and shoulders above the rest at this point, and 2-5 are probably pretty accurate and similar. The Waukee/Urbandale game will be a good one and winner probably ends up at Dome. Dowling has had a couple of weeks to get a couple new guys some reps. Looks like Ankeny scores some points. Should be a fun few upcoming weeks.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

I think the interesting one here is ICW, where do they end up if they finish unbeaten in regular season? I think SEP is head and shoulders above the rest at this point, and 2-5 are probably pretty accurate and similar. The Waukee/Urbandale game will be a good one and winner probably ends up at Dome. Dowling has had a couple of weeks to get a couple new guys some reps. Looks like Ankeny scores some points. Should be a fun few upcoming weeks.

Waukee vs Urbandale week 7 will not be a good one...If Dowling cleans up the self inflicted wounds like special teams and fumbles it should come down to them and SEP... the interesting thing will be how IHSAA runs the playoffs. I’m guessing it’s all as geographic as possible until the final 4 at the dome.... which is unfortunate as that means the good games will happen very early in CIML playoff games and then likely blowouts at the Dome. Hopefully the IHSAA doesn’t worry too much about the optics and feels things have went well during the season and avoids that but I doubt it.

 

[oldtimefootball]

Thoughts on how IAHSAA handles 4A playoffs? If DSM and Iowa City public schools are still out in 2 weeks, do they simply go with 4 pods of 8 teams? Trying to seed, maintain minimal travel and avoid rematches could be quite a test for the Boone boys. 4 pods of 8, seeded with each pod winner going to Dome. Reseed final four and go is the plan I hope they follow.

 

[27 Toss]

seed them all from the start, 1 thru 30 something, forget the logistics, the top 4-5 teams in the state this year are from the CIML

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

Thoughts on how IAHSAA handles 4A playoffs? If DSM and Iowa City public schools are still out in 2 weeks, do they simply go with 4 pods of 8 teams? Trying to seed, maintain minimal travel and avoid rematches could be quite a test for the Boone boys. 4 pods of 8, seeded with each pod winner going to Dome. Reseed final four and go is the plan I hope they follow.

iowa city schools are back. IHSAA reported how doing playoffs yesterday in a newspaper article, will find and post here

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

Thoughts on how IAHSAA handles 4A playoffs? If DSM and Iowa City public schools are still out in 2 weeks, do they simply go with 4 pods of 8 teams? Trying to seed, maintain minimal travel and avoid rematches could be quite a test for the Boone boys. 4 pods of 8, seeded with each pod winner going to Dome. Reseed final four and go is the plan I hope they

here:

IHSAA gives details about playoff format for football

You won’t need to refresh the computer every few minutes at 2:30 in the morning waiting for the Iowa High School Athletic Association to release its football playoff pairings this

qctimes.com

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

seed them all from the start, 1 thru 30 something, forget the logistics, the top 4-5 teams in the state this year are from the CIML

here:

IHSAA gives details about playoff format for football

You won’t need to refresh the computer every few minutes at 2:30 in the morning waiting for the Iowa High School Athletic Association to release its football playoff pairings this

qctimes.com

 

[KidSilverhair]

Des Moines schools are back in class beginning the week of October 12. Does that mean they’re included in the playoffs?

 

[oldtimefootball]

I believe Nov. 7th is the earliest high schoolers get to resume activities as they don’t go to new plan until Nov. 10th.

 

[Hawked]

Waukee vs Urbandale week 7 will not be a good one...If Dowling cleans up the self inflicted wounds like special teams and fumbles it should come down to them and SEP... the interesting thing will be how IHSAA runs the playoffs. I’m guessing it’s all as geographic as possible until the final 4 at the dome.... which is unfortunate as that means the good games will happen very early in CIML playoff games and then likely blowouts at the Dome. Hopefully the IHSAA doesn’t worry too much about the optics and feels things have went well during the season and avoids that but I doubt it.

How not good will it be in week 7? I think you're dead wrong.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

How not good will it be in week 7? I think you're dead wrong.

As in Waukee will hand Urbandale their rear end like they did Johnston. Everyone put too much stock into the Johnston/Dowling game. That was an anomaly event. Waukee and Dowling are both superior to Urbandale and Johnston. Urbandale just hasn’t played anyone that great yet. Urbandale will meet the same fate as Johnston versus Waukee.

And theoretically if Johnston was that good and Waukee whipped them then Urbandale is in even bigger trouble.... or did you think I meant Urbandale would handle Waukee? Cuz that’s not what I was implying I the original post you replied to.

 

[Hawked]

As in Waukee will hand Urbandale their rear end like they did Johnston. Everyone put too much stock into the Johnston/Dowling game. That was an anomaly event. Waukee and Dowling are both superior to Urbandale and Johnston. Urbandale just hasn’t played anyone that great yet. Urbandale will meet the same fate as Johnston versus Waukee.

And theoretically if Johnston was that good and Waukee whipped them then Urbandale is in even bigger trouble.... or did you think I meant Urbandale would handle Waukee? Cuz that’s not what I was implying I the original post you replied to.

It won't be a 28 point game. You're crazy.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

It won't be a 28 point game. You're crazy.

i never said it would be 28 necessarily. Waukee beat Johnston by 28 and Urbandale beat Johnston by 16. I don’t necessarily believe in the ability to use comparative scoring in football since there are so many variables that can occur between opponents but if you did, the comparative scores would imply at 12 point differential between Waukee and Urbandale... I would bet that Waukee wins by more than that 12 points but likely less than 28... as it is obvious Urbandale is likely better than Johnston unless something changed substantially since the week 1 game or Waukee plays below their ability. Regardless of score, I have zero doubt Waukee wins.

 

[SpinningBird]

i never said it would be 28 necessarily. Waukee beat Johnston by 28 and Urbandale beat Johnston by 16. I don’t necessarily believe in the ability to use comparative scoring in football since there are so many variables that can occur between opponents but if you did, the comparative scores would imply at 12 point differential between Waukee and Urbandale... I would bet that Waukee wins by more than that 12 points but likely less than 28... as it is obvious Urbandale is likely better than Johnston unless something changed substantially since the week 1 game or Waukee plays below their ability. Regardless of score, I have zero doubt Waukee wins.

BC Moore's computer predicts Waukee will win by 2 points vs Urbandale in Week 7. It's the most unbiased model out there.

BCMoore Rankings

ia.bcmoorerankings.com

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

BC Moore's computer predicts Waukee will win by 2 points vs Urbandale in Week 7. It's the most unbiased model out there.

BCMoore Rankings

ia.bcmoorerankings.com

can you look and see what it previously predicted against Johnston? I’d bet it was well below the actual score differential. Since the computer can’t take certain assumptions into account that humans can it probably gave too much credit to Johnston after the Dowling win throwing off that prediction. And then when the computer sees the score between Urbandale and an “inflated” impression of Johnston it will throw off the Urbandale vs Waukee score.

 

[Hawked]

can you look and see what it previously predicted against Johnston? I’d bet it was well below the actual score differential. Since the computer can’t take certain assumptions into account that humans can it probably gave too much credit to Johnston after the Dowling win throwing off that prediction. And then when the computer sees the score between Urbandale and an “inflated” impression of Johnston it will throw off the Urbandale vs Waukee score.

How you gonna do against valley tonight?

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

How you gonna do against valley tonight?

Not sure who “you” is since I’m not a Waukee fan. But certainly valley scored more than they have all year except Roosevelt. Not seeing game don’t know if they figured something out offensively or if there were special teams or defensive scores or Waukee had defense issues?

 

[SpinningBird]

can you look and see what it previously predicted against Johnston? I’d bet it was well below the actual score differential. Since the computer can’t take certain assumptions into account that humans can it probably gave too much credit to Johnston after the Dowling win throwing off that prediction. And then when the computer sees the score between Urbandale and an “inflated” impression of Johnston it will throw off the Urbandale vs Waukee score.

Its right there in the link I provided. BC's computer missed Waukee/Johnston on the low side and Waukee/Valley on the high side. It's not perfect.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

Its right there in the link I provided. BC's computer missed Waukee/Johnston on the low side and Waukee/Valley on the high side. It's not perfect.

I didn’t see the far right margin where the predicted differences were before. So my assumption that the computer would over credit Johnston was correct. And based on that and the week 1 Urbandale vs Johnston game I’m sure the 2.7 point margin prediction for Waukee vs Urbandale will also be low as I previously stated. I know it’s not perfect, I’m just saying I think what the computer has done so far does not change my prediction of a strong Waukee win over Urbandale.