Updated 3A Playoff Scenarios

KidSilverhair

Varsity
Aug 31, 2008
1,686
295
83
www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
One game left, and we know a lot more than we did. Now for 3A ...

3A-1
Sergeant Bluff-Luton v Carroll​
Sioux Center v MOC-Floyd Valley​
Bishop Heelan v Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley​

SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON is in with a win, and wins the district with a win plus an MOC-Floyd Valley loss. They are in with a loss plus an MOC win; a loss plus wins by Heelan and Sioux Center makes a three-way tie. They're out with a loss and wins by BHRV and Sioux Center.​

SIOUX CENTER is in with a win, and wins the district with a win plus an SBL loss. They are out with a loss.​

MOC-FLOYD VALLEY wins the district with a win. They are in with losses by Heelan and SBL. They reach a tie with a Heelan win and an SBL loss.​

BISHOP HEELAN, CARROLL, and BOYDEN-HULL/ROCK VALLEY are out.​

3A-2
Humboldt v Algona​
Nevada v North Polk​
Ballard v Gilbert​

NEVADA wins the district with a win. They're second with a loss plus a Humboldt loss; a loss and a Humboldt win creates a three-way tie.​

NORTH POLK wins the district with a win plus a Humboldt loss; a win plus a Humboldt win is a three-way tie.​

HUMBOLDT is in with a Nevada win. A win and a Nevada loss is that three-way tie. A loss plus a Nevada loss means thety have to hope for an at-large spot.​

ALGONA, BALLARD, and GILBERT have been eliminated.​

3A-3
Independence v Center Point-Urbana​
Hampton-Dumont-CAL v South Tama​
West Delaware v Charles City​

INDEPENDENCE has won the district.​

WEST DELAWARE is second.​

HAMPTON-DUMONT-CAL, CENTER POINT-URBANA, CHARLES CITY, and SOUTH TAMA have been eliminated.​

3A-4
Mount Vernon v Vinton-Shellsburg​
Benton v Central DeWitt​
Davenport Assumption v Maquoketa​

MOUNT VERNON has won the district.​

BENTON is in with a win; a loss plus a Davenport Assumption win creates a three-way tie.​

CENTRAL DeWITT gets second with a win plus a Davenport Assumption loss; wins by both create the tie.​

DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION can reach a tie for second with a win plus a Benton loss.​

VINTON-SHELLSBURG and MAQUOKETA have been eliminated.​

3A-5
Solon v Keokuk​
Grinnell v Fairfield​
Washington v West Burlington/Notre Dame​

SOLON has won the district.​

GRINNELL takes second with a win. A loss plus a Washington win makes a three-way tie; a loss plus a Washington loss leaves Grinnell out.​

FAIRFIELD takes second with a win plus a Washington loss; wins by both make that tie.​

WASHINGTON can force a tie for second with a win plus a Fairfield win.​

WEST BURLINGTON/NOTRE DAME and KEOKUK have been eliminated.​

3A-6
Harlan v Knoxville​
ADM v Saydel​
Atlantic v Creston​

HARLAN has won the district.​

ADM is second.​

CRESTON, KNOXVILLE, ATLANTIC, and SAYDEL are out of auto-bid contention.​
 

KidSilverhair

Varsity
Aug 31, 2008
1,686
295
83
www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
Who's in for certain:

Independence (district champ)
Mount Vernon (district champ)
Solon (district champ)
Harlan (district champ)
West Delaware
ADM
Sioux Center/MOC-Floyd Valley winner
Two from Nevada/North Polk/Humboldt

In with a win:
Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Nevada

Almost certainly:
Grinnell-Fairfield winner
Benton-Central DeWitt winner
 
  • Like
Reactions: JB Football

ronsss

Varsity
Nov 8, 2003
2,991
84
48
moc-floyd valley probably 1 touchdown favorite over sioux center
sergeant bluff about 10 pt favorite over carroll
north polk about 5 pt favorite over nevada, but nevada beat humbolt last week?
grinnell vs fairfield is a toss up
benton 2 touchdown favrite over central dewitt
 
Nov 10, 2017
10
5
3
Some premature predictions (home team in bold):

Pod 1
Nevada (WC #1) vs Harlan (D6 #1) -- district 2 is the hardest to figure out. I'm guessing Nevada loses to North Polk week 9 and ends up #3 in their district.
Hampton Dumont (WC #3) vs. MOC (D1 #1)

Pod 2
Creston (WC #2) vs North Polk (D2 #1)
SBL (D1 #2) vs Humboldt (D2 #2)

Pod 3
Grinnell (D5 #2) vs ADM (D6 #2)
Benton (D4 #2) vs Solon (D5 #1)

Pod 4
West Delaware (D3 #2) vs Mount Vernon (D4 #1)
Davenport Assumption (WC #4) vs Independence -- Assumption is on the bubble. They need a win, a DeWitt loss, and lots of movement in the RPI). Also, this would be a rematch from week 1, so not ideal.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JB Football

Redraider906

Gold Member
Apr 15, 2017
37
10
8
If North Polk beats Nevada this week it will be a 3 way tie assuming Humboldt wins as well. The tiebreaker will be RPI as head to head will be tossed out since everyone beat each other so most likely Humboldt will be the 1 seed out of the district. 2nd will depend on how far a loss drops Nevada and how big a bump NP gets.

Regardless I like what you've done here and think it will be interesting what the Association actually does with the pods.
 

KidSilverhair

Varsity
Aug 31, 2008
1,686
295
83
www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
As I said in the 4A thread, I don’t usually predict winners and losers, I just lay out the various results - but here’s one likely playoff field (using RPI to predict the winners of games in general - I admit it gets pretty iffy for guessing the at-larges):

District winners: MOC-Floyd Valley, Nevada, Independence, Mount Vernon, Solon, Harlan

Runners-up: Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Humboldt (host), West Delaware, Benton, Grinnell, ADM (host)

At-large: Creston, Hampton-Dumont-CAL, Davenport Assumption, Central DeWitt (or maybe Washington? Who knows how much RPIs will move around)

Potential pairings, West side (shifting Nevada to try to keep the top 4 RPIs split):
SBL at Harlan, Hampton-Dumont at MOC-Floyd Valley
Grinnell at ADM, Creston at Humboldt

(Okay, right away I admit this is unlikely because it guarantees a non-district winner makes the semis … but if Humboldt finishes 2nd in the district with a top-four RPI, then … what do you do?)

Potential pairings, East side:
Benton at Nevada, Davenport Assumption at Solon
West Delaware at Mount Vernon, Central DeWitt at Indee
 
  • Like
Reactions: JB Football

PNation

Varsity
Aug 15, 2010
2,475
451
83
Here is what I have

Nevada vs Grinnell
Independence vs Benton

Mount Vernon vs. West Delaware
Solon vs. Central DeWitt

Harlan vs. Sioux Center
MOC FV vs North Polk

Humboldt vs Creston
ADM vs Hampton Dumont CAL
 
  • Like
Reactions: JB Football

KidSilverhair

Varsity
Aug 31, 2008
1,686
295
83
www.thirdandamile.blogspot.com
Yeah, it's tough to come up with a bracket that doesn't end up with a non-district-winner making it to the semifinals, isn't it? :D

If Humboldt ends up finishing second in the district, yet with a top-four RPI, that really throws a wrench in the seedings.
 

PNation

Varsity
Aug 15, 2010
2,475
451
83
I will say that of my groupings

Nevada is the favorite, but Indee or Benton do have a chance.
Mount Vernon is the favorite but West Delaware and Solon do have a chance.
Harlan is going to win a state championship as long as there isn't an freak happening.
Humboldt and ADM are co favorites there.
 
Nov 10, 2017
10
5
3
Lots of twists last night (at least to me). I didn't expect:

Sioux Center over MOC
SBL losing to Carroll
Benton losing to DeWitt
Atlantic beating Creston

The actual groupings will be announced soon enough, but I feel like taking a crack since I've been looking at this (thanks to KidSIlver for making it a lot easier to figure out).

I was trying to predict what RPI would do, but just saw they actually released it last night. Only surprise for me was the way it appears that the top of D2 worked out with North Polk getting a bump over Nevada for the #2 in the district spot (even though their actual RPI number is lower), probably due to the head-to-head. I think this means Nevada will not be hosting round 1.

Assumption and Atlantic didn't get the help they needed last night with big wins by DeWitt, Hampton Dumont, and Sioux Center, so those two will be out of the playoffs.

Here are my pod predictions or more like how I would do it while trying to follow all the rules (home team in bold):

Pod 1
MOC (D1 #2) vs Harlan (D6 #1)
Nevada (WC #1) vs Sioux Center (D1 #1)

Pod 2
Hampton Dumont CAL (WC $4) vs Humboldt (D2 #1)
Grinnell (D5 #2) vs ADM (D6 #2)

Pod 3
DeWitt (WC#3) vs Solon (D5 #1)
Creston (WC #2) vs North Polk (D2 #2)

This one might be a bit of a stretch -- lots of driving if there is an upset.

Pod 4
West Delaware (D3 #2) vs Mount Vernon (D4 #1)
Benton (D4 #2) vs Independence (D3 #1)

We will see...
 
  • Like
Reactions: JB Football

Latest posts