So, what happens first....
- Thread starter dhetiger
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That’s a tough one, but I like China taking Taiwan first. Little doubt both will happen on pudding brains watch.
If I was Russia I would not want the Ukraine. Nothing but long term trouble to them. I bet on China. They probably don’t care that much about Taiwan but their presence is offensive to them and their prestige. But it will really be bloody for China.
Agree. China will win in their scenario but it will cost them. The human toll doesn't phase them, however.
Russia would lose and lose bigly.
I'm worried about the US Naval presence near Taiwan and what an invasion by China causes.
I'm curious as to why you think Russia would lose. When they invaded the Donbass and the Crimea NATO didn't lift a finger.
They aren't dealing with the same Ukraine first and foremost. They are better equipped and the geography is a MFer this time.
We lose a carrier (sunk or severely damaged) along with several surface ships and untold aircraft.
Likely thousands of American lives lost. And we accomplish almost nothing...or actually nothing.
Pudding brain better have at least 6 nuclear missile subs parked off of their coastline then. I don't trust that he'll go against his handlers, but my comment before launch would be "this is for Covid, fvckers".
PLA will die in droves if they invade Taiwan. Zero F's will be given, of course.
Zero fvcks given by me, too. If they want to fight for that regime, fvck them.
I probably worded that poorly. Russia can certainly defeat Ukraine in any military contest.
What i meant was that they would lose way more than they seem to be willing to lose, for very little gain, and they would pay BIG on the back end through intensified sanctions. The juice isn't worth the squeeze.
I wouldn't shed a tear for the PLA either but those little bastards in the PLA don't have much of a choice.
To your point, fuggem all the same.
I think the bigger question is who is going to win the civil war here...
This one is easy ! Trumpskys bromance partner would slowly occupy Ukraine. No one really GAF. Doesn’t affect anyone outside those two countries. Putin’s only card is gas and oil. That can be replaced
Conversely, China invading Taiwan would result in immediate economic suicide. 35-50% of GDP is trade based. Most UN countries would instantly shut down trade , expel diplomats and embargo China. This includes cutting off financial ties and asset seizure ( bank of China , trademarks and real estate deals - harmful to Trumpsky family mafia).
China Trade to GDP Ratio 1960-2023
Trade is the sum of exports and imports of goods and services measured as a share of gross domestic product.
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Trump isn't POTUS, dickhead. Do you think Harris can keep Putin from possibly starting a world war? I'd mention Biden, but he might be the only person in this country dumber than you.This one is easy ! Trumpskys bromance partner would slowly occupy Ukraine. No one really GAF. Doesn’t affect anyone outside those two countries. Putin’s only card is gas and oil. That can be replaced
Conversely, China invading Taiwan would result in immediate economic suicide. 35-50% of GDP is trade based. Most UN countries would instantly shut down trade , expel diplomats and embargo China. This includes cutting off financial ties and asset seizure ( bank of China , trademarks and real estate deals - harmful to Trumpsky family mafia).
There could be a few military skirmishes but a nuclear exchange has generational effect of fallout on both sides, millions of lives snuffed out is not worth upsetting the status quo.China Trade to GDP Ratio 1960-2023
Trade is the sum of exports and imports of goods and services measured as a share of gross domestic product.www.macrotrends.net
My first guess would be China.
Civil war?? Not sure how ok’d you are but what’s happening now pales to the division in the 60s with the protests and riots of civil rights and Vietnam war opposition. There was constant fear of global thermonuclear war... we came within a few seconds of near extinction 2-3 times.
the political tantrums of the Trump militants and Big Lie isn’t jack shit and will fade to a small insignificant cult as the truth is exposed and the economy roars back ( it’s happening now)
The only difference now and then is the presence of a pandemic and the organized disinformation campaign on internet - on both sides.
Capitalism wins out.
It's always going to be about Trump for him. I wonder if they're working on a vaccine for that?
Of course he isn’t you goober mowron... I mention that only to remind the audience that Putin and Russia are globally insignificant now... excepting that the Trumpsky loyalists cover for his disregard of intelligence, incompetence and treason in allowing Putin to manipulate US politics in exchange for their personal bromance.
I meant for you. I don't think Otisville or Atlanta, no matter how unlikely they might be, would cure your TDS.
In no way is this about Trump for anyone else. But no one doubted that it would be all about him for you.
Excellent point...kind of makes membership in that little club about as useful as flood insurance in the Sahara.
You're stupid. I hope this helps. Globally insignificant? Lol. They supply Europe with oil and natural gas and have as many nukes as we do. Nice call, dickhead.
Oh, did I mention they are allied with China as it pertains to the US? Shutup.
No you’re stupid because you disregarded the previous post - stating specifically that the only card they have to play is gas and oil- which can easily be replaced by OPEC .
Nuclear warheads only play a part if a country is willing to lose half of its population in 30 minutes. It’s not happening.
Therefore- what really matters is strength of global trade. Russia doesn’t produce shit. They are buyers .
Well, not entirely true, they make some drinkable vodka... and mediocre weapons systems but on the whole, nothing to write home about.
Nations are less willing to have skirmishes with nuclear armed nations...for obvious reasons. I think it's fair to say that this line of thinking is also weighted by the size of said nuclear arsenal.
China will wait until after the Olympics in Beijing. Russia has massive troop movement already. Seems like it’ll be them first.
5-6 nukes in the 60 megaton range is all that is needed to end a country for 100 yrs..... Beyond that -Think of the impact from global fallout and nuclear winter. It’s a game no ones going to play .
That's just not true. And it's not only the size of its nuclear inventory, but its ability to deliver it upon its enemy.
Not sure what or why you are arguing here. That Russia isn't a legitimate military threat? That's absurd. Is China a greater threat? Absolutely but that doesn't mean that Russia isn't one as well.
Unless Biden permits it China will not invade Taiwan anytime soon. In fact the whole world will have to send a signal. China is trying to become the leading economic power in the world. A war with Taiwan would put a big kink in that. China would be better to reverse the war strategy and use a peace strategy and eventually annex them.
That would certainly minimize the economic ramifications but if China wanted to flex its military muscle, nobody would stop them. We won’t stop an unarmed invasion of our own country, why would we stop an armed one of someone else?
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