RPI vs BCMoore
- Thread starter Kevin7216
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While they are both formulaic RPI is calculated completely off of your record, your opponents records and your opponents opponents records. I don’t know that I have ever seen the BCMoore formula, in fact in may be proprietary, however, based on how it reacts I say it optimizes the ranking based on the scores of the games, not just the win or loss. The nice thing about BCMoore is that it projects the spread. Generally teams that beat the spreads move up a bit and those that don’t cover the spreads drop in the rankings. Again, the program modifies the rank each week after the results are in and tries to optimize the point variations.
I think bcmoore factors is different class wins n losses n also home n away games. Not 100 percent on this but seems it does
I have no idea what all metrics factor into BC Moore rankings. He used to post on here a fair amount back in the day. But I am pretty sure there is a strength of schedule component that goes into his rankings. Just not sure how far that gets carried out? Does it include just opponents record or opponents-opponents record to use the RPI terms? Or is his SOS just based on who your team has played in his ranking system. I'm fairly certain he has a "fudge " factor for teams playing up a class, or classes. And uses his "spread" to determine good wins/ bad losses etc that factor in.
And it looks like he has used a couple different formulae of the years. This years switch to "modified" . Again, not sure what the mathemetical difference of the two would be but it looks like he was testing out the modified rankings for several years before he switched to that?
No formula will ever be perfect, but BCM does have a pretty high track record of eventual state champions being ranked in his top 5 by week 5 or 6 (or something like that?). Time will tell whether RPI from IAHSAA is better or worse, but guessing either one will have problems...
Bcmoore would be far and away a better system to qualify teams for the playoffs.
Bcmoore's track record at the top of their rankings has been proven. I don't remember which article I read a few years back, but someone broke it down and in all classes, the top 5 by week 5 in Bcmoore had yielded a champion something like 86% of the time, that's unreal. And the top 10 by week 5 had yielded the final 4 like 78% of the time. The impressive part about that stat is that it was done by week 5, the program was that accurate. It's the first year of the RPI so who knows how accurate that ranking system is but one flaw I see already, as it stands constructed, a 1 point win is equal to a 50 point win, and a 1 point loss is equal to a 50 point loss, playing up or down a class has no weight either way, and head to head carries no weight. The best example of this is in class 3A right now. LC routes sergeant-bluff 42-14 and is undefeated, yet sergeant-bluff is rated #1 in RPI. Meaning that if the 2 rematch in the playoffs (a very likely scenario) an unbeaten LC will have to travel to sergeant-bluff, no easy task.
I know this is not the 3A forum, but the fact that RPI has Xavier (who is clearly #1 by a longshot) ranked 4 in 3A should make everyone go hmmm.
And I know that isnt likely to be a big deal at the end of the day for Xavier. But if we have to rely solely on RPI to determine wild cards, home field advantage, etc, at all levels, then mistakes will be made.
And I know that isnt likely to be a big deal at the end of the day for Xavier. But if we have to rely solely on RPI to determine wild cards, home field advantage, etc, at all levels, then mistakes will be made.
Sev but then you look at BCMoore and Hudson is number 4 and Garrigan is 9 and they are in arugably the 2 toughest districts in class A
Then you look closer and Britt who Garrigan beat by 2 TDS is 3 spots ahead in 6 I guess head to head means nothing it’s just covering predicted spread in which Garrigan covered in that game!
Then you look closer and Britt who Garrigan beat by 2 TDS is 3 spots ahead in 6 I guess head to head means nothing it’s just covering predicted spread in which Garrigan covered in that game!
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agree totally. Any computer system or RPI is going to have some flaws. Unfortunately when IAHSAA decided to increase number of districts and go to more ND games, it increases the reliance on some sort of ratings system. I said from the start, that this is highly unlikely to impact overall state champion, but I do worry about a young team, district runner up, who could benefit from playoff experience for the next year ( im thinking wapsie or one of the other d7 teams this year) that might not make a wild card spot .
But maybe i'm over -estimating the playoff experience factor?
I can agree with that gooanthers23 but injuries happen and that game was not the game to play injured players.
I get that but what I don’t get and we both know is that there is no way when head to head comes into play that the losing team is considered better then the winning team in any poll I don’t care which one it is... So with that being said do you agree with BCMoore? I just wish there was a common sense factor that is what makes those rankings flawed.
I'd like to wish that playing the games matter, but computer and even the eye test sometimes come to different conclusions even when head to head is involved. The 93 NCAA championship went to FSU over Notre Dame when everyone felt Charlie Ward's seminoles were the better team , even though they had the same record and the Irish had beat FSU .
Well Kevin clearly Britt is a very good team. But the eye test, head to head, and common sense factor is Garrigan is better. Britt lost to garner who is a pretty bad 2A team. And then in there head to head Garrigan spanked them by 20 but Britt scored with 1 second left to go making the score look better. I’m glad I got to attend that game. Garrigan is a top 3 team and Britt top 8. Injuries must have really hurt that squad because the team I saw when they played west Hancock would have beat NU by 50. Let’s not sleep on belmond. Even tho Garrigan beat them head to head, I doubt they’d want to play them in the playoffs. Belmond May very well have the best overall player in class A. I live in north central Iowa so I can’t speak for other parts of the state but Garrigan, Belmond, and West Hancock are really really good. Obviously i know about Hudson but I hear North Tama is pretty legit too. And I’ve heard good things about Wapsie as well
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I actually do agree with bcmoore majority of the time honestly. Once enough games get in the system it seems to round out right. There are a few times when I look n go this team should be way higher n a team should be lower but for the most part it’s good.
Lol u brag Britt a top 8 team but yet then point out they lost to a bad 1a team, that makes your case for them being a top 8 very strong not. I have not saw Britt play this year but traditionally they r a top level team so don’t know how good this exact year they r but I’d be surprised if they weren’t a top 16. That loss to garner does look bad on them especially not even putting any points up. 7-0 game n at home.
GOPANTHERS, while losing to a bad 1A team does hurt there case, that’s also week 1. I’m still holding that against them and that’s why I don’t think there a too 6 team but when I saw them play they still were very talented. They just got out coached and out muscled up front by a senior dominated team. If they beat belmond, which they very well may do, I would not want to be in the same quadrant as them. I saw that the gazette did an article on playoff predictions. They had them going west which to me makes no sense? They’d have one of the lowest RPIs why would they not go to Hudson’s quadrant
Great win for Wapsie tonight. Wow talk about a dominating performance from Hudson... does anyone have information on the game? Did injuries play apart in this? And great performance from Garrigan as well. Newman also killed st ansger tonight by 15 which surprised me
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Newman beat st ansgar by 15, 41-26. And 7 of newman's points came at the very end of the game.
East buc was a lot more impressive than I thought they would be tonight. I figured wapsie would win but after wapsie got up 21-6 east buc didn’t fold and made a run at it but wapsie finally finished a game off unlike the games against North Tama n Hudson. This young team is growing!
Yeah, not going to lie, with a minute and a half left I thought “hear we go again”, but the young men bunkered down and closed the deal. Hopefully a sign of growth. We did have a couple of big plays that took us inside the 10 yard line and then we couldn’t get it in. Our starting RB and S went down with a shoulder injury early in 3rd Qtr which did hurt us a bit (hoping a week or two recovery) although Fox for East Buc was out most of first half but came in after half. Hard fought win. Proud of the boys!
I heard GC young QB went down early in the game and got taken to the hospital :-( Never like see that happen. Guessing that may have taken wind out of GC’s sales a bit. Hope the young man is ok.
And I was shocked at Central Springs win over South Winn 29-30. Anyone have low down on that?
I heard GC young QB went down early in the game and got taken to the hospital :-( Never like see that happen. Guessing that may have taken wind out of GC’s sales a bit. Hope the young man is ok.
And I was shocked at Central Springs win over South Winn 29-30. Anyone have low down on that?
Grundy Center killed themsellves with turnovers. It killed their momentun every time they got something going. i don't think the QB being out had much to do with it , the backup looked better to me, Hudson showed a lot of new looks. The offense shifted away from running Seres on 70 per cent of the plays. I think he stopped playing offense when the continuous clock started
Just so you know, Garner is a Class 2A team, not 1A. West Hancock handily beat Osage, a class 1A team that wrapped up their district title last night with the best passing quarterback in Class 1A. Yes, West Hancock lost to Garrigan, a senior laded team, but it wasn't a spanking as you seem to refer to. It was a very tough hitting game and Garrigan was able to take advantage of their opportunities when they had them, while West Hancock didn't. When
West Hancock started passing, they moved the ball much better. West Hancock is playing a lot of underclassmen this year, while still having the best running game in Class A and the 6th best out of all classes. They return their entire backfield next year and have some very good talent coming up through the program. They will be a very good team for the next couple of seasons.
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