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RPI Through Week 5

Charles86

Freshman
Aug 6, 2018
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Here are the top 16 teams in the RPI

1. I-35, Truro
2. Van Meter
3. South Central Calhoun
4. Bellevue
5. Mediapolis
6. Sumner-Fredericksburg
7. Dike-New Hartford
8. Pella Christian
9. West Branch
10. Mount Ayr
11. Colfax-Mingo
12. South Hamilton
13. Wilton
14. West Lyon
15. West Sioux
16. Woodward-Granger

Just outside looking in...

17. Treynor
18. Underwood
19. Cascade, Western Dubuque
20. Sigourney-Keota

Thoughts?
 
Colfax Mingo and South Hamilton will have tough matchups this week. I can see both falling from current position.
 
Colfax Mingo and South Hamilton will have tough matchups this week. I can see both falling from current position.

South Hamilton may put up a little fight against SSC, but the Titans will take care of business. The Hawks will fall for sure. Colfax-Mingo will also all from their current spot with a loss at I-35. West Lyon and West Sioux will both move up going into their game next week.
 
Updated with district number at the left to give an idea of where the wildcards may stack up. Teams with a * lost their first district game, so will need some help to win their district. Obviously going to be hard for District 9 to get a wildcard. District 7 sitting good with 4 teams in the top 16.

D7- 1. I-35, Truro
D8 - 2. Van Meter
D2 - 3. South Central Calhoun
D4- 4. Bellevue
D5- 5. Mediapolis
D3- 6. Sumner-Fredericksburg
D6- 7. Dike-New Hartford
D7- 8. Pella Christian
D4- 9. West Branch*
D8- 10. Mount Ayr
D7- 11. Colfax-Mingo
D2- 12. South Hamilton
D5- 13. Wilton
D1- 14. West Lyon
D1- 15. West Sioux
D7- 16. Woodward-Granger*

Just outside looking in...
D9- 17. Treynor
D9- 18. Underwood
D4- 19. Cascade, Western Dubuque
D5- 20. Sigourney-Keota*
 
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Updated with district number at the left to give an idea of where the wildcards may stack up. Teams with a * lost their first district game, so will need some help to win their district. Obviously going to be hard for District 9 to get a wildcard. District 7 sitting good with 4 teams in the top 16.

D7- 1. I-35, Truro
D8 - 2. Van Meter
D2 - 3. South Central Calhoun
D4- 4. Bellevue
D5- 5. Mediapolis
D3- 6. Sumner-Fredericksburg
D6- 7. Dike-New Hartford
D7- 8. Pella Christian
D4- 9. West Branch*
D8- 10. Mount Ayr
D7- 11. Colfax-Mingo
D2- 12. South Hamilton
D5- 13. Wilton
D1- 14. West Lyon
D1- 15. West Sioux
D7- 16. Woodward-Granger*

Just outside looking in...
D9- 17. Treynor
D9- 18. Underwood
D4- 19. Cascade, Western Dubuque
D5- 20. Sigourney-Keota*

I think PC and I-35 will get two in from district 7. District 9 will absorb a spot, and I am still not going to sleep on AP to take down Sumner-Fred which would steal another spot as I think that would be SF's only loss
 
Keep in mind.....there could be districts with co champions. This will reduce the number of wild cards. I remember a few years back...there was a 3 way tie for first place in one district. We could be right back where we started. A weaker district sending co champions and a strong district with teams missing out.
 
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While I understand the desire to take a look at RPI, keep in mind the majority of the formula is based on winning percentage and most of the tougher, district determining match-ups are typically the last few weeks. So there is going to be a lot of major shifting in this.

Also, FYI generally speaking the Opponents Opponents records end up being very close to .500, just with the law of large numbers and the fact that the more games that are played the more it will trend toward .500, and since this is only 25% of the formula, its pretty insignificant. On the other hand, the difference between 7-2 and 6-3 is equivalent to a 9 game swing in Opponents Records (out of 81 total games for the year). For instance, a 6-3 team would have to have an opponents record of 50-31 to actually rank ahead of a 7-2 team that has an opponents record of 40-41. (49-32 would be the same - and then the Opponents Opponents Record would come into play). Could happen, but is relatively unlikely. 8-1 will make it, 7-2 most likely will make it, 6-3 outside chance to make it.
 
I don't really know a lot about district 9, but does that district have a chance at a 3-way tie? Other than that, I don't see any others coming down to that. Possibly district 4 if Cascade is able to take down Bellevue and WB beats Cascade. District 4 and 9 are the only ones in my opinion of having a possible 3-way tie.
 
Maybe not a 3 way tie isn't likely. You could have 2 districts with co champions....that would eliminate 2 wild card spots. I'm not saying it is going to happen....just something to keep in mind. My point is....we could still have controversy.
 
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Maybe not a 3 way tie isn't likely. You could have 2 districts with co champions....that would eliminate 2 wild card spots. I'm not saying it is going to happen....just something to keep in mind. My point is....we could still have controversy.
Do we know what the tie-breaker is for District Champs? There has to be a head-to-head, so that could determine the champ and the other tied record team would have to qualify on RPI.
 
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Do we know what the tie-breaker is for District Champs? There has to be a head-to-head, so that could determine the champ and the other tied record team would have to qualify on RPI.

I'm sure the tiebreaker for co-champs would be head to head with winner getting the automatic spot. The other co-champ would be based on their RPI I suppose.
 
I'm sure the tiebreaker for co-champs would be head to head with winner getting the automatic spot. The other co-champ would be based on their RPI I suppose.
That's what I was thinking, adds pressure to a team like Regina, who appears to have no hope of qualifying via RPI (I'm not a great math guy and I know there's a lot than can change between now and week 9, but is there any mathematical hope they could even climb into the top 16? I guess you'd have to extend some pretty far fetched scenarios like previously unbeaten teams losing out the next 4 games...not much point in going through that exercise)? So they'd have to be DNH and win the district leaving DNH to qualify wildcard (and not get a home field.) It seems to me that the previous suggestion to throw out two non-district games out of the RPI
 
That's what I was thinking, adds pressure to a team like Regina, who appears to have no hope of qualifying via RPI (I'm not a great math guy and I know there's a lot than can change between now and week 9, but is there any mathematical hope they could even climb into the top 16? I guess you'd have to extend some pretty far fetched scenarios like previously unbeaten teams losing out the next 4 games...not much point in going through that exercise)? So they'd have to be DNH and win the district leaving DNH to qualify wildcard (and not get a home field.) It seems to me that the previous suggestion to throw out two non-district games out of the RPI

Boy if DNH got in as a wildcard, I would not want to be the team to host them. That would be a fun consolation for winning your district lol
 
For what it is worth, I was bored and tried to play out the season using BCMoore's predictions (I know not perfect but best I could come up with). Based on that I took the winner of each district and the next 7 highest RPI teams. And here's what that hypothetical looks like ...
District Winners
West Sioux
South Central Calhoun
Sumner Fred
Bellevue
Wilton
DNH
PC
Van Meter
Underwood

At Large based on RPI:
West Branch (8-1 OppRec 42-39)
I 35 (8-1 OppRec 38-43)
Mount Ayr (8-1 OppRec 38-43)
Woodward-Granger (6-3 OppRec 49-33)
Mediapolis (8-1 OppRec 31-50)
West Lyon (7-2 OppRec 38-43)
One of the next three with the Opponents Opponents record the tie-breaker
Treynor (7-2 OppRec 34-47)
South Hamilton (7-2 OppRec 34-47)
Sigourney Keota (6-3 OppRec 43-38)
 
Damn, see I already screwed up Mount Ayr's record :) They would be 7 - 2 with predicted loss to Van Meter. That loss would move them to RPI spot 6.
 
For what it is worth, I was bored and tried to play out the season using BCMoore's predictions (I know not perfect but best I could come up with). Based on that I took the winner of each district and the next 7 highest RPI teams. And here's what that hypothetical looks like ...
District Winners
West Sioux
South Central Calhoun
Sumner Fred
Bellevue
Wilton
DNH
PC
Van Meter
Underwood

At Large based on RPI:
West Branch (8-1 OppRec 42-39)
I 35 (8-1 OppRec 38-43)
Mount Ayr (8-1 OppRec 38-43)
Woodward-Granger (6-3 OppRec 49-33)
Mediapolis (8-1 OppRec 31-50)
West Lyon (7-2 OppRec 38-43)
One of the next three with the Opponents Opponents record the tie-breaker
Treynor (7-2 OppRec 34-47)
South Hamilton (7-2 OppRec 34-47)
Sigourney Keota (6-3 OppRec 43-38)


Interesting....Mine was the same from the cuff....and I picked Treynor out of your group of remaining 3. I'll be disappointed if we both aren't right.


West
Ogden @Van Meter
Mt Ayr @west lyon
I35 @ Treynor
W Sioux @ SCC

East
Woodward Granger @ WB (I know it's a geographic stretch)
Wilton @ DNH
Bellevue @ Sumner F'burg
PC @ MEPO
 
Interesting....Mine was the same from the cuff....and I picked Treynor out of your group of remaining 3. I'll be disappointed if we both aren't right.


West
Ogden @Van Meter
Mt Ayr @west lyon
I35 @ Treynor
W Sioux @ SCC

East
Woodward Granger @ WB (I know it's a geographic stretch)
Wilton @ DNH
Bellevue @ Sumner F'burg
PC @ MEPO

Bellevue on the road? They will most likely win the district with their win over WB.
 
Bellevue on the road? They will most likely win the district with their win over WB.
There will be 9 district champions and 7 at large. 1 District Champion will have to play on the road. I doubt it will be Bellevue though. I’m guessing the District 9 (Treynor/Underwood) winner will have the lowest RPI and be on the road. Will be better explained once the post season manual is available from the geniuses in Boone.
 
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There will be 9 district champions and 7 at large. 1 District Champion will have to play on the road. I doubt it will be Bellevue though. I’m guessing the District 9 (Treynor/Underwood) winner will have the lowest RPI and be on the road. Will be better explained once the post season manual is available from the geniuses in Boone.

Yeah, one would think with only 4 weeks remaining in the regular season that the IHSAA would get the post-season manual posted. It just might be of some importance to teams fighting for playoff births.

And while it has been pointed out by several, I believe that all district champions are automatic qualifiers. I believe the IHSAA made this point when they released the RPI would be the new playoff qualification tool. The IHSAA will not "break" any ties for a district championship. Again, I could be wrong as the IHSAA has been known to just change the rules on the fly, but I seem to remember this. So if there is a 2-way tie, both teams will get in as district champions even though obviously one team would've beaten the other head-to-head. If it is a 3-way tie for a district championship, all 3 teams get in even if 1 team beat the other 2.

So every tie for a district championship obviously reduces the number of at-large qualifiers...which will make things very, very interesting.
 
Yeah, one would think with only 4 weeks remaining in the regular season that the IHSAA would get the post-season manual posted. It just might be of some importance to teams fighting for playoff births.
Would anyone really change anything they are doing based on any clarification that could come out of Boone? I mean for the teams on the bubble, all they can do about their fate is win. For the teams seemingly out of the running, they need to focus on winning their districts, so again, the name of the game is "win."

It's interesting stuff for those of us watching and I'm sure coaches are nervous about BS that would send a lesser team to the playoffs over a better team, but that's always been the worry, with district automatic bids, it's always a risk and we're not likely to find a system that's ever going to fix it perfectly. But, yes I would think the post season manual would be out. It does seem only fair to know the rules sometime before the end of the season.
 
And while it has been pointed out by several, I believe that all district champions are automatic qualifiers. I believe the IHSAA made this point when they released the RPI would be the new playoff qualification tool.

yeah they did make it pretty clear in the January letter about playoff format:

"1. Only the district champion or teams tying for a district championship receive automatic qualification."
 
I am not complaining about the new system, simply offering an observation based on current format and past format. Feel free to shoot holes in this and run it through the meat grinder. Lets say there was a 3 way tie and a two way tie in the same year in 2 of the 9 districts. So instead of having 9 winners and 7 at large you would have 12 winners and 4 at large. Lets say the 3 way tie was in the least talented district.(I don't care how you determine that, RPI, obviousness, smell test, usually everyone knows what district is down) So, now, you have 3 teams or potentially 4 or 5 left out of the playoffs that could beat the co champions. Instead, lets have a system that allows more teams in like the 32 team format. Yes, there will be 2-7 teams in on occasion that have no chance of making a run. Probably some #1 team will lose a key player in a game like that at some point. Or a #2 team playing a #3 team from a down/struggling district and blowing them out first round takes a key injury. That is a tough scenario for a deserving playoff team. but that's football and they would rather take that chance than be the 17th team under the current format when its obvious they would beat the 16,15,14,13 and maybe more seeded teams, all because of co champion rules. I don't believe that less is more under the current system. If an injury happens in the playoffs you just have to adjust and try to advance. That is true no matter what system we have. If an injury happens to a key player(s) under the current system during or before a critical game of the regular season and it costs them a playoff berth, that is a shame. In a nutshell, a 32 team playoff gives teams a chance late in the year to get healthy and allows the highest probability of not excluding a team that could've made a deep run.

ps- I know the wed mon Friday sat....too many playoff games in two weeks argument will come up....start the season a week earlier or have it go a week later. Thanksgiving is on Thursday, not Friday and Saturday.
 
My first gut reaction was "no no no" I hated the 32 team bracket, it's evil and pointless. None of those lower 16 ever made it to a final (not sure if that's true, it's my gut) I also thought this whole notion of a 3 team co-champ is too far-fetched to really consider, let alone having a 2 team co champ in one district and a 4 team in another in the same year...but it is possible. 3 pretty good teams all beat up on the 3 doormats and then take turns beating each other - voila you have a 3 team tie.

SO

I agree, if you're going to have a system that is so narrow and allows for co-champs regardless of quality, then you probably need to accommodate more teams in the playoffs.

So, in order to have a wide enough field to bring in those quality teams who get pushed out because co-champs are taking their spots (i.e. they would have qualified on RPI had it not been for co-champs) what a compromise, one that allows the teams who are probably have a legit shot at the dome, to not risk injury. Instead of a full 32 team bracket, how about a 24? Where the 9-12 seeds on each half of the bracket play in against the 5-8 seeds, while the 1-4 get a bye. Yes, the road to the dome is harder for the bottom of the bracket, but it is anyway, they get pared against the top seeds. Giving them a play-in option means they get an opportunity to advance and the fans get a quality game that seems worth having added to the schedule. (e.g. a 5 seed vs 10).

Not sure if we can start the season earlier due to start of school year rules and the whole state fair argument.

We could extend later, the weather on the weekend that is currently the semi-final week could be dodgy for an outdoor game, but as you said, "It's football."

While I don't generally like widening the field past those who could logically compete. I more hate the thought of a quality team getting left out because of co-champs. So, I agree, a wider field if we're going to have co-champs.
 
My first gut reaction was "no no no" I hated the 32 team bracket, it's evil and pointless. None of those lower 16 ever made it to a final (not sure if that's true, it's my gut) I also thought this whole notion of a 3 team co-champ is too far-fetched to really consider, let alone having a 2 team co champ in one district and a 4 team in another in the same year...but it is possible. 3 pretty good teams all beat up on the 3 doormats and then take turns beating each other - voila you have a 3 team tie.

SO

I agree, if you're going to have a system that is so narrow and allows for co-champs regardless of quality, then you probably need to accommodate more teams in the playoffs.

So, in order to have a wide enough field to bring in those quality teams who get pushed out because co-champs are taking their spots (i.e. they would have qualified on RPI had it not been for co-champs) what a compromise, one that allows the teams who are probably have a legit shot at the dome, to not risk injury. Instead of a full 32 team bracket, how about a 24? Where the 9-12 seeds on each half of the bracket play in against the 5-8 seeds, while the 1-4 get a bye. Yes, the road to the dome is harder for the bottom of the bracket, but it is anyway, they get pared against the top seeds. Giving them a play-in option means they get an opportunity to advance and the fans get a quality game that seems worth having added to the schedule. (e.g. a 5 seed vs 10).

Not sure if we can start the season earlier due to start of school year rules and the whole state fair argument.

We could extend later, the weather on the weekend that is currently the semi-final week could be dodgy for an outdoor game, but as you said, "It's football."

While I don't generally like widening the field past those who could logically compete. I more hate the thought of a quality team getting left out because of co-champs. So, I agree, a wider field if we're going to have co-champs.
Why not go to an 8 game schedule, do we really need 4 non District games? Take the top 2 in each district add 14 more based on current RPI. State could match up the bottom 22 teams. So 32 teams in the playoffs on week 9 and 22 teams getting matched up to their level for the week 9 game.
 
Why not go to an 8 game schedule, do we really need 4 non District games? Take the top 2 in each district add 14 more based on current RPI. State could match up the bottom 22 teams. So 32 teams in the playoffs on week 9 and 22 teams getting matched up to their level for the week 9 game.
The problem there is the kids in teams below the 32 lose a game - somehow that doesn't seem fair - Maybe there could be a consolation bracket, so at least some of the teams from the bottom half would have some kind of playoff type experience.
 
The problem there is the kids in teams below the 32 lose a game - somehow that doesn't seem fair - Maybe there could be a consolation bracket, so at least some of the teams from the bottom half would have some kind of playoff type experience.
I may have not been very clear, but the teams who do not make the playoffs are matched up by the IAHSAA to a similar team for week 9. Everyone gets at least 9 games!
 
See..... I knew ya’ll would come up with even more options and ideas. Awesome! I like the 8 game with optional additional game for non playoff teams. This 32 team field virtually ensures no quality team is left out because of a Co champ situation. It would be especially sad if 3 cochamps got in from a weak district and 2 quality teams were left outside of the playoffs. The state will argue that if those teams have no common opponents how do u really know who’s quality and who isn’t. I would argue that the current RPI struggles with that same debate. Furthermore, the current system has a greater risk of not rewarding quality teams with a playoff berth. That scenario will happen.... just a matter of time.
 
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See..... I knew ya’ll would come up with even more options and ideas. Awesome! I like the 8 game with optional additional game for non playoff teams. This 32 team field virtually ensures no quality team is left out because of a Co champ situation. It would be especially sad if 3 cochamps got in from a weak district and 2 quality teams were left outside of the playoffs. The state will argue that if those teams have no common opponents how do u really know who’s quality and who isn’t. I would argue that the current RPI struggles with that same debate. Furthermore, the current system has a greater risk of not rewarding quality teams with a playoff berth. That scenario will happen.... just a matter of time.
I already argue that if Regina or Pella Christian do not make the playoffs, which is possible, we do not have the best 16 teams in the playoffs. Regina vs Woodward-Granger or Mount Ayr would be a Regina victory by 28 points at least. But they could be outed by the best 3A Team, a good 2A Team, and 2 of this best 1A teams.
 
And that could easily happen..... that said.... under the new system it doesn’t make sense for Regina to play Xavier or Williamsburg. They could’ve beat PC and probly should have. Prime example of a team without their starting QB early in season in game(s) where he would’ve helped them. But now it may cost them a playoff berth. Under a 32 team system with 8 regular season games they are in. Plus, if there’s any argument about safety then less is more..... 12 is better than 13 for the championship teams anyway. RPI is too tough to measure quality state wide IMO.
 
A three way tie in a very tough district doesn’t seem to hurt playoff quality as much as a 3 way tie in a poor district. Exceptions to everything but 32 team ensures basically all quality teams get in..... and throws a carrot to the bottom teams. But it also enables teams that would be quality but had injuries to show their true colors come playoff time.
 
I may have not been very clear, but the teams who do not make the playoffs are matched up by the IAHSAA to a similar team for week 9. Everyone gets at least 9 games!
Back in the 80's, if you qualified for the playoffs, your last game was dropped as you entered the playoffs. Teams that didn't make the playoffs then began to schedule other teams who also lost game 9 to the playoffs. That would leave 16 teams looking for a game. It would seem that there would be one obvious choice for each team to schedule. Not a terrible idea. Not sure how realistic it would be teams to get that final game bit it could work.
 
See..... I knew ya’ll would come up with even more options and ideas. …

...The state will argue that if those teams have no common opponents how do u really know who’s quality and who isn’t. I would argue that the current RPI struggles with that same debate. ....
Now the question is, is anybody in Boone watching?

I know we're just a bunch of armchair analysts, but I'm willing to bet with whatever process they have to get input from coaches and ADs at the end of the season, many of the same concerns will be raised and who knows if they'd come up with the same potential resolutions or if so, when.

If I were sitting in Boone, I think I'd be looking for potential solutions like here where others have already done the work, but I have no idea if they even know this exists or are willing to give ideas here the time of day. I'm guessing they'd give even less credibility to ideas here than they do to the pile of email they must receive from coaches and parents around the state.
 
What if, all district champs get a first round bye. Take the next 14 ranked RPI teams for first round games. Winners play districts champs in round 2.

You would obviously have to have criteria for true district champ, but 7 more teams get into the playoffs and the state still gets to use its fancy RPI system.

Two district champs would have to face each other in round two.
 
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Wow.....has I-35 ever been a top 5 team? I see they are 1-6 alltime in the playoffs.....so I am thinking not.


Updated with district number at the left to give an idea of where the wildcards may stack up. Teams with a * lost their first district game, so will need some help to win their district. Obviously going to be hard for District 9 to get a wildcard. District 7 sitting good with 4 teams in the top 16.

D7- 1. I-35, Truro
D8 - 2. Van Meter
D2 - 3. South Central Calhoun
D4- 4. Bellevue
D5- 5. Mediapolis
D3- 6. Sumner-Fredericksburg
D6- 7. Dike-New Hartford
D7- 8. Pella Christian
D4- 9. West Branch*
D8- 10. Mount Ayr
D7- 11. Colfax-Mingo
D2- 12. South Hamilton
D5- 13. Wilton
D1- 14. West Lyon
D1- 15. West Sioux
D7- 16. Woodward-Granger*

Just outside looking in...
D9- 17. Treynor
D9- 18. Underwood
D4- 19. Cascade, Western Dubuque
D5- 20. Sigourney-Keota*
 
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