Projecting the prep football playoff fields, Week 7 edition --- CR Gazette

[WSH0455]

I was reading the Cedar Rapids Gazette today and they had an article on predicting the playoffs. I am interested to know how Mr. Linder came up to his choices as some seem off. Below is the article and his Class 2A predictions......


The high-school football season has reached its two-thirds mark, which makes this as good a time as any to begin playing with playoff projections.

As you know, the postseason field has been carved in half this season, from 32 teams in each class to 16, in an effort to spread out the rounds of playoffs to seven days. It is becoming abundantly clear that this will cause some very good teams to be sitting out when the first round is played Oct. 28.

I am projecting the playoff field, with all future results (Weeks 7, 8, 9) determined by the BC Moore computer.

After determining the 16 teams, I tried to place the teams in bracket order based on seeding and geography, with every effort made to separate district opponents so they would not play until the semifinals.

CLASS 2A
West Bracket

Central Lyon/George-Little Rock (7-2, D-1 runner-up) at Roland-Story (8-1, D-3 champion)

Centerville (5-4, wild card) at Carroll Kuemper (8-1, D-7 champion)

Southeast Valley (6-3, wild card) at Monroe PCM (8-1, D-6 champion)

South Central Calhoun (7-2, D-7 runner-up) at Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley (8-1, D-1 champion)

East Bracket

New Hampton (8-1, D-2 runner-up) at North Fayette Valley (8-1, D-3 runner-up)

Central Lee (7-2, D-6 runner-up) at Williamsburg (8-1, D-5 champion)

Mount Vernon (6-3, D-5 runner-up) at Crestwood (7-2, D-2 champion)

Dike-New Hartford (6-3, D-3 runner-up) at Union (9-0, D-4 champion)

 

[PNation]

DNH won't lose to Roland Story for 2nd, and I can't say I agree at all with there wild cards.

 

[WSH0455]

I was trying to figure out how a 5-4 Centerville would make it in as a wildcard over a 6-3 Waukon (according to his records)? Unless he thinks centerville will be in a 3-way tie for district champs??? Also I dont know if Crestwood can win out.

 

[PNation]

Crestwood and New Hampton are the best two teams in that district, I would suspect that they will.

 

[QB69]

Having Mt. Vernon play at Crestwood makes the least geographical sense.

 

[ISUChip]

I was trying to figure out how a 5-4 Centerville would make it in as a wildcard over a 6-3 Waukon (according to his records)?

Points. (Disregard the overall record -- which doesn't matter -- and look at the district record.)

Centerville is 3-1/+34 right now, which puts them as the top 3-1 team in the at-large pool. The assumption is probably that C'Ville gets max wins over Albia and EBF, and loses to Central Lee. They'd be +68 not counting the C.Lee loss.

Waukon is 4-0/+57. The projection has them winning one (likely Oelwein, probably by the max) and losing two (NFV and Union). That's +74, not counting two losses.

 

[jen44]

Does anyone know if they will have a legitimate bracket or will the match-ups be picked prior to each round?

 

[PNation]

Centerville could easily lose all three of those games, and yes I believe they are creating a set bracket.

 

[jen44]

Centerville could easily lose all three of those games, and yes I believe they are creating a set bracket.

Do you know the criteria for determining the 2 wild card teams?

 

[PNation]

A three way 1st way tie is the first criteria I know, so if there are two districts with 3 way champions it goes to them, then it is overall district record, then head to head, either in district or out of district, then the 17 point rule, the alphabetical starting with K.

Right now the only districts I really seeing having a chance at a 3 way tie is district 4 and maybe 7, and even then I don't know that could happen.

Assuming no 3 way ties, it'll come down to the 17 point rule and that is way too difficult to predict. If the district 4 games are close then I would assume that they would get 3 in, if the 3rd place team takes it on the chin then it'll be tough. Other teams with a good chance are West Liberty (even with 2 loses left on the schedule), SE Valley, and if Centerville could take care of business them as well, I am just not sure I see it.

 

[RoundMound1]

I think what we will come to find is that the Wild Card selections will be a farce if there aren't 3-way ties. You will probably end up with the 3rd best teams from weak districts (D5, D6, and D7) rather than the teams that will truly deserve the playoff spots from tougher districts (like taking Centerville and SE Valey over GHV/New Hampton or Waukon/Union/NFV) due to the point differential. If you're going to use point differential as a criteria, why not use a much better math algorithm like BC Moore's. It's not perfect, but definitely a better indicator than just point differential in district play.

BTW, this is the exact reason the State went to 4 playoff teams how ever many years ago (around 10 if memory serves). Better teams were out of the playoffs because they played in better districts. I think we'll be right back to 4 playoff teams per district in the next cycle.

 

[PNation]

I agree completely with this, other than I don't think GHV will even finish 3rd in that district with a loss already to CGD-Cal and games with New Hampton and Crestwood remaining. I am not sure BC's method is the best either though, it doesn't take into account injuries or suspended players being back, I know that there are at least 20 examples of teams who beat a team being behind them in the BC Moore rankings.

I hope they go back to 4 teams in 2 years, the only problem I see is that they may have to overhaul the entire years calendar to do it if they want to keep the week in between break, and if history tells us anything the boys in Boone don't like to do more work then necessary they just like to collect their big paychecks.

 

[walkingstick24]

If Union or NFV or Waukon don't make the playoffs then it will be a sad day for 2a football.

 

[UnionFootballFan]

If Union or NFV or Waukon don't make the playoffs then it will be a sad day for 2a football.

And Cascade could be thrown into that mix too.

 

[jen44]

A three way 1st way tie is the first criteria I know, so if there are two districts with 3 way champions it goes to them, then it is overall district record, then head to head, either in district or out of district, then the 17 point rule, the alphabetical starting with K.

Right now the only districts I really seeing having a chance at a 3 way tie is district 4 and maybe 7, and even then I don't know that could happen.

Assuming no 3 way ties, it'll come down to the 17 point rule and that is way too difficult to predict. If the district 4 games are close then I would assume that they would get 3 in, if the 3rd place team takes it on the chin then it'll be tough. Other teams with a good chance are West Liberty (even with 2 loses left on the schedule), SE Valley, and if Centerville could take care of business them as well, I am just not sure I see it.

Does the 17 point rule apply to only district games or all games (including non-district)?

 

[PNation]

Just district games

 

[RoundMound1]

If Union or NFV or Waukon don't make the playoffs then it will be a sad day for 2a football.

Yep, but unless there is a 3-way tie, I don't see it happening.

Not saying it won't, but the #3 teams in D7 and D6 have a much better chance of padding their point differential for the remainder of the season.