Postseason 2022

[rc1963]

I'll jump in with bracket by bracket talk for 1A - Anyone else can chime in on the other classes, I haven't been following them very closely (but wow Pleasant Valley has a commanding style of play - Out of the Eastern Teams I'd say they are odds on favorites - Interesting to see them against the Des Moines competition.)

So, here goes with Class 1A - 1 - Can't really see anyone but Western Christian and Sioux Center in the final here. Western Christian's only Loss was to 2A Spencer. Sioux Center also lost to Spencer - both matches determined by a one goal diff each. Western Christian has a regular season, one goal win over Sioux Center - So if this is the final, it should be a good one, on paper about as close to a toss-up as you can have. I pick Western Christian to advance.

1A - 2 Assuming everyone wins their first round matches - the interesting one here to me is the Semi of Garner Hayfield vs Postville. Garner Hayfield Split home and away matches with 2A #20 Iowa Falls, the home game, a really lopsided win - Otherwise they've dropped two to 2a #1 Humboldt and North Fayette Valley (ranked above them) and a lopsided 0-5 loss (their likely opponent in a substate final should they get that far. 3 Seed Postville could be the dark horse here - 11-4, all one goal losses to W'loo Columbus, North Fayette Valley (twice) and 2A Decorah - If they can get by Graner Hayfield it sets up an exciting grudge match far a final with North Fayette Valley - I'll go with NFV heading to State.

1A - 3 - I think everyone wins their 1 round matches subbing deep into their rosters. After that most anything can happen Regina had a PK shootout win over Columbus - Beckman had a one goal win over Regina but lost to Columbus 2-1. So these teams are pretty evenly matched. Add into the mix that Beckman should have the upper hand on VS, but only won their regular season matchup 2-0. On paper Beckman should have a slight advantage in this group. I'm sticking with my pick of Regina to advance to state based on my allegiance (full disclosure of a partisan bias here) and what I thought was pretty impressive play at Muscatine as well as some impressive play against PV (don't get me wrong PV controlled that match start to finish, but frankly that loss could have been worse - Regals are controlling possession pretty well - really need to get the ball in the back of the net.) So, I'm sticking with my pick. but I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL if either Beckman or Columbus advance. I WOULD be surprised to see VS get there.

1A - 4 Assumption walks, if not waltzes into state - IF the seedings hold our and they meet West Branch in the final, I'll predict a 5-0 Assumption win.

1A - 5 This bracket will go precisely as seeded. ND skips to state on an 8-0 final win over Mepo

1A - 6 Williamsburg and Mid Prairie want to be the spoilers in this bracket. But MidPrairie is hearing footsteps ever since their weak schedule and a couple losses sent them into freefall from their computer generated #1 High. Williamsburg wants to beat WL - Their lopsided loss to Beckman probably indicates they don't have enough gas to get the job done. So, West Liberty and GC-GR in the final. A pair of wins over Columbus , including an early season lopsided 6-2 win and one of their only loss was a close one to NFV. A slightly tougher schedule for WL, I think is enough to drive them to state - but that could be a really entertaining final (at GC-GR BTW...)

1A - 7 Assume this one will follow the seeding - Just don't think Van Meter or Des Moines Christian have quite enough to play spoiler. Nevada and Greene County look pretty evenly matched on paper, with Greene County taking a win over the Cubs at their own tournament, but I tend to value strength of schedule a little more and think Nevada will avenge that loss and move on to state.

1A- 8 I think this one will come down to Treynor and West Central Valley, with Underwood and AHSTW both having some success but notable losses. Treynor took WCV 4-0 in their regular season matchup I don't think this one will end any differently - Treynor goes to state.

 

[Pinehawk]

Pretty disappointed in the number of rematches in these brackets. Part of what makes the post season fun, is seeing and playing new teams.
In many cases the likely substate finals will be rematches. BND basically got the same conference tournament in their bracket, that they just played last weekend.
Could have mixed the top teams up a bit better I think.

 

[rc1963]

I was thinking about this this morning. Funny how some of the sports have "Substate" and others have "Sectionals/Districts" Without any research it seems like the difference is that Sectionals/Districts are more geographically organized whereas "Substate" should be a seeded tournament - Therefore less consideration for geography, more on a seeded tournament before "state." So, if you maintain that philosophy, you should be able to seed a better tournament that the replay of conference schedules. Especially with increased emphasis on regular season conference scheduling.

 

[rc1963]

So, I think the question in the other thread was if I wanted to change anything on my way too early predications. Since I revised to put in NFV instead of Postville, and re-did the math on the state seedings, here are the pairings I come up with and my predictions

First Round

NFV
Regina

Assumption
Nevada

Western Christian
ND

Treynor
WestLiberty





Semi Final
Assumption
Regina

ND
Treynor


Final
Assumption v ND

Assumption - Champion

 

[JMSBFD]

Good stuff. I wanna believe in Regina but have just seen too much inconsistency. Having said that, I think that bracket is wide open. Other than DA and BN I don't think there is a true lock in any other bracket.

I'm excited to watch all the classes play out. Some outstanding match-ups will happen that probably should have been state tournament games.

And I think @Pinehawk mentioned it but way too many regular season rematches for my liking.

Can't wait to see 1A substate 6 play out. Is GR for real?

 

[rc1963]

Good stuff. I wanna believe in Regina but have just seen too much inconsistency. Having said that, I think that bracket is wide open. Other than DA and BN I don't think there is a true lock in any other bracket.

I'm excited to watch all the classes play out. Some outstanding match-ups will happen that probably should have been state tournament games.

And I think @Pinehawk mentioned it but way too many regular season rematches for my liking.

Can't wait to see 1A substate 6 play out. Is GR for real?

There are 3 teams I'm eager to see play out, GR, NFV and Postville. They seem to have records to indicate ability, but not sure which of them can close out the deal in substates.

Totally agree on the "lock" brackets - A first round upset rarely happens, but it would be really interesting to see. I don't expect much out of tonight's matches, some of the semi's will be really interesting.

As for number of regular season matches, what are your thoughts on too many regular season matches? It seems like partially an issue of the quality of the matches. You can get a higher seed if you play some additional "Softer" matches, but what's the impact of playing fewer? Out of my state bracket, The team with the least, played 13, the most 19. There were two 18s and two 16s and a 14. The top seed played 14, the bottom seed 19. So, mostly based on math, it seems like success with fewer matches gets you rewarded. On paper the difference between 19 and 13 seems little, but 6 matches is significant especially when you consider that accounts for 1/3 of your schedule. So, there is ranking/seeding impact, but what other reasons would you say that 18 or 19 is way too many? Is there a sweet spot? Not disagreeing, just wondering your thoughts on why fewer would be better? As a fan, I like having more matches to watch, but maybe that's selfish of me.

 

[privateer13]

It really comes down to your team and program. A team that is not very deep, may want to play fewer games to keep them fresh. A younger team may want to play an easier schedule for confidence. Playing a tougher schedule doesn't always lead to making the team better. If your end goal is to get a better post season spot and home games then playing fewer games and and a weaker schedule could help. If you want to win state then playing a challenging schedule with a deep talented team, would make more sense. If your somewhere in between then I guess you have some sort of mix. I don't know how the current ranking system works, if someone could enlighten us on those details.

 

[privateer13]

1a

District

1-- WC
2--NFV
3--Beckman
4--DA
5--ND
6--GCGR
7--Nevada
8--Treynor

 

[rc1963]

Looks like last night went pretty much by script - only a handful or 5 over 4 and 3 over 6 "upsets."

Here's a look at the semifinal Round:

1A-1 - Western Christian (1) v. West Sioux (4) -Rematch of a regular season match where WC won 6-0
Sioux Center (2) v Unity Christian (3) - Sioux Center has won two previous matches this year, 4-2 and 5-0

1A -2 - North Fayette Valley (1) v. Clear Lake (4) - No previous matchup , but against common opponent Garner Hayfield NFV won 5-0 and CLear Lake lost 0-5
Garner Hayfield (2) v. Hampton Dumont CAL (6) These two have met twice this year - GH winning both (4-2 and 1-3)

1A -3 - Beckman (1) v Vinton Shellsburg (4) - Beckman has beaten VS once this season 2-0
Regina (2) v Columbus Catholic (3) - Regina beat Columbus earlier this year in a PK shootout

1A -4 - Assumption (1) v Wahlert (5) - Assumption beat Wahlert 5-0 previously this year
West Branch (2) v Prince of Peace (3) WB won a previous mtg 5-3

1A -5 - Notre Dame (1) v. Albia (5) - No prior mtg - didn't find a common opponent
Mediapolis (2) v Columbus Comm (3) - Mepo won both previous meetings (3-1, 5-1) Yup folks, this substate could bracket could easily end up with a final with two teams that have already played twice this season, one of them winning both 8-0 and 10-0

1A -6 - GC-GR (1) v. Pella Christian (5) No head to head history, they both Beat Sigourney Keota (PC 6-1, GCGR 10-0)

1A -7 - Nevada (1) v. Clarke (5) - No previous mtgs
DSM Christian (2) v. Greene County (3) - Their Reg season matchup was cancelled, they both beat common opponent Panorama (DCM 6-1, Green County 8-1) - This one could be a fight. If Greene County wins this one, it could set up a rematch with Nevada won they lost to 2-3) earlier)

1A -8 - Treynor (1) v AHSTW (4) - Treynor has beaten AHSTW 9-1 previously this year
West Ventral Valley (2) v. St Alberts (6) No head to head, 4 teams as common opponents, with REALLY mixed results, WDV looks a little better on paper, St Alberts has a tougher schedule overall - does that give them the experience to win this one?

 

[hawkeyetillidie]

Good stuff. I wanna believe in Regina but have just seen too much inconsistency. Having said that, I think that bracket is wide open. Other than DA and BN I don't think there is a true lock in any other bracket.

I'm excited to watch all the classes play out. Some outstanding match-ups will happen that probably should have been state tournament games.

And I think @Pinehawk mentioned it but way too many regular season rematches for my liking.

Can't wait to see 1A substate 6 play out. Is GR for real?

Not sure GR is real or not. The competition hasn't been great. They are very fast on both sides of the field. They don't play much of a possession game. Which will probably burn them vs a good defensive team.

Anyone have any idea what happened in the North Fayette v Belmond game? NF should have 10 goaled them, only won 5-0

 

[JMSBFD]

Not sure GR is real or not. The competition hasn't been great. They are very fast on both sides of the field. They don't play much of a possession game. Which will probably burn them vs a good defensive team.

Anyone have any idea what happened in the North Fayette v Belmond game? NF should have 10 goaled them, only won 5-0

Dual sport athletes at state track, maybe?

 

[rc1963]

Not sure GR is real or not. The competition hasn't been great. They are very fast on both sides of the field. They don't play much of a possession game. Which will probably burn them vs a good defensive team.

Anyone have any idea what happened in the North Fayette v Belmond game? NF should have 10 goaled them, only won 5-0

Sub deep to get some players some experience? If winning is already locked in, maybe coach had other goals to accomplish? Things to try?

 

[JMSBFD]

There are 3 teams I'm eager to see play out, GR, NFV and Postville. They seem to have records to indicate ability, but not sure which of them can close out the deal in substates.

Totally agree on the "lock" brackets - A first round upset rarely happens, but it would be really interesting to see. I don't expect much out of tonight's matches, some of the semi's will be really interesting.

As for number of regular season matches, what are your thoughts on too many regular season matches? It seems like partially an issue of the quality of the matches. You can get a higher seed if you play some additional "Softer" matches, but what's the impact of playing fewer? Out of my state bracket, The team with the least, played 13, the most 19. There were two 18s and two 16s and a 14. The top seed played 14, the bottom seed 19. So, mostly based on math, it seems like success with fewer matches gets you rewarded. On paper the difference between 19 and 13 seems little, but 6 matches is significant especially when you consider that accounts for 1/3 of your schedule. So, there is ranking/seeding impact, but what other reasons would you say that 18 or 19 is way too many? Is there a sweet spot? Not disagreeing, just wondering your thoughts on why fewer would be better? As a fan, I like having more matches to watch, but maybe that's selfish of me.

My comment was about rematches.

 

[rc1963]

My comment was about rematches.

Ohhh, I read too fast - gotcha, yes, seems like having rematches should be rarer. Maybe as more play transitions to conference schedules, it'll be easier to mix up substates?

 

[JMSBFD]

How did they seed the state tournament brackets; too lazy to look it up in the manual. Seems like some goofy shit.

 

[rc1963]

How did they seed the state tournament brackets; too lazy to look it up in the manual. Seems like some goofy shit.

They are seeded on a Point formula that gives you 3 points for a 3A win, 2 points for each 2A win and 1 point for each 1A win, totaled abs divided by the number of games played. So, you end up getting penalized for playing up and not winning.
Western Christian v. ND should not happen first round, and West Central Valley the number 2?

 

[JMSBFD]

So they went back to the old formula for state after using the new formula for the rest of the post season. Damn, the boone boys continue to be a comedy of errors.

 

[rc1963]

So they went back to the old formula for state after using the new formula for the rest of the post season. Damn, the boone boys continue to be a comedy of errors.

That’s what it says in the manual. It’s always possible that it’s out of date. I didn’t test out the results on my own. I did do my own, based on that formula, I didn’t do it with the actual brackets.

with the change in ranking methods I would think the Bound power rankings would be better for seeding, they aren’t perfect, but at this point in the season they’re better

 

[JMSBFD]

Totally agree.

 

[Pinehawk]

The rankings were a joke all year and the state should not use the computer rankings as they are now.
They had Mid Prairie as the #1 team in the state just a couple weeks ago. And, it turns out they were maybe the 4th best team in their own conference.
The formula they used needs some serious work if they plan to continue using it.
The coaches should be voting on the rankings.

 

[UCKights87]

The rankings were a joke all year and the state should not use the computer rankings as they are now.
They had Mid Prairie as the #1 team in the state just a couple weeks ago. And, it turns out they were maybe the 4th best team in their own conference.
The formula they used needs some serious work if they plan to continue using it.
The coaches should be voting on the rankings.

Well considering all 1A teams that made it to state are currently in the computer ranking top 10 I’d say they aren’t a joke. Sure a couple weeks ago Mid Prairie was #1 but they were the only undefeated team and they ended up probably where they belong at 22 after their losses. I understand if you don’t like the rankings as they don’t reward Regina for losing to 3A teams though.

I also understand getting away from coach voting polls as that could have bias, but I don’t understand why the state makes a big deal of varsity bound rankings while neglecting them for state parings. As of now the #1 ranked is playing #2 and #3 the #4 in the first round.

 

[Pinehawk]

They set the districts using those faulty rankings 3 weeks ago.
The computer rankings today likely take into account the result of yesterday’s games, so of course the remaining teams got a ranking boost.
I know West Liberty wasn’t a top 10 team prior to the substate final yesterday.

 

[UCKights87]

Last Sunday the last iahscca ranking, which bases it’s ranking off the the computer model, had all the state teams still in the top 10 bar West Liberty which you were correct was 13th. The model is not perfect but I fail to see how it is completely faulty.

I see that Mid prarie was #1 when districts parings we’re announced but they were undefeated and it’s not like they got an easy group. They also dropped to 16 after their first loss which I think was a correct placement for them at the time. Maybe the model overinflated undefeated teams.

I am kinda curious where you think they got the district parings wrong?

 

[Pinehawk]

Well, Mid Prairie absolutely got an easy group. I called that right when the brackets were released. Turns out GR, as suspected, was overrated and untested, due to an inflated record as the #1 seed. A #13 ranked team won that group. Mid Prairie as well, who were undefeated due to one of the worst schedules in 1A. West Branch got a #2 seed with an inflated record due to a weak schedule and then got blown out at home by Prince of Peace. A few districts offered no real challenge for the top seed.

The district pairings set up numerous rematches, often conference rematches. Some that weren't even close the 1st time. My point is that the current computer formula is not a good one. The results bear that out. And, that the coaches should be ranking the teams, just like they did for years.

 

[JMSBFD]

Well, Mid Prairie absolutely got an easy group. I called that right when the brackets were released. Turns out GR, as suspected, was overrated and untested, due to an inflated record as the #1 seed. A #13 ranked team won that group. Mid Prairie as well, who were undefeated due to one of the worst schedules in 1A. West Branch got a #2 seed with an inflated record due to a weak schedule and then got blown out at home by Prince of Peace. A few districts offered no real challenge for the top seed.

The district pairings set up numerous rematches, often conference rematches. Some that weren't even close the 1st time. My point is that the current computer formula is not a good one. The results bear that out. And, that the coaches should be ranking the teams, just like they did for years.

Until there is parity across the state, I agree. Western Christian snuck into the state tournament finals last year but other than that and a few random CBSA appearances, eastern Iowa has dominated state soccer.

If Columbus catholic or regina were in five of the other brackets they would likely be at state. A crime that 3 of the legit top six teams in the state were in the same bracket. Maybe the state tournament will prove me wrong but I see Assumption, BND, WL, and Beckman all advancing. Having said that, this is really another down year for the quality of 1A soccer.

just off the top of my head, thinking that Assumption, Columbus, and regina are next years favorites based on returning players. (Yes I know regina best player is transferring to west) Beckman loses a ton, as does BND. WL lives on Galvin and he's gone. Maybe Cady has some secret weapons waiting in the wings down at mid prairie. 🤔 funny that their coaching staff said that they would beat regina 9 out of 10 after they played them and blamed the field conditions for the loss....was standing water. @Pinehawk Kaeding actually going to get QC to maintain the fields like they used to be? They all look like shit. Gets the gig and then wants even more money???

 

[Pinehawk]

Agree with most of that post, as well as the condition of the fields, but the weather was tough this spring. But, I don’t know enough about the maintenance contracts to offer any input there. I’d like to see them improve to where they were though.

Does anyone know if they are bringing back the 3rd place game this year? I really hope so, it was great to offer one extra game to those teams, and it fit well in the schedule.

 

[cidhawkeye]

Agree with most of that post, as well as the condition of the fields, but the weather was tough this spring. But, I don’t know enough about the maintenance contracts to offer any input there. I’d like to see them improve to where they were though.

Does anyone know if they are bringing back the 3rd place game this year? I really hope so, it was great to offer one extra game to those teams, and it fit well in the schedule.

This isn’t the first time I have heard of issues with the Regina fields. They have had poor weather previously and didn’t have these issues. As far as the contracts go… sounds interesting.

 

[JMSBFD]

Agree with most of that post, as well as the condition of the fields, but the weather was tough this spring. But, I don’t know enough about the maintenance contracts to offer any input there. I’d like to see them improve to where they were though.

Does anyone know if they are bringing back the 3rd place game this year? I really hope so, it was great to offer one extra game to those teams, and it fit well in the schedule.

Agreed, I miss the 3rd place games.

 

[Pinehawk]

Agreed, I miss the 3rd place games.

They had to help attendance and the gate revenue. With no real extra expense to the IHSAA except for another set of refs. Which also gave the best refs additional valuable experience and pay. Would love to see those games brought back and played at the same time as the Championship games. Would even help get the top players back on site at Cownie on the final day for the all tournament team awards.

 

[JMSBFD]

Yep and a final game for seniors to go out after reflecting and realizing it really is their last game on the pitch.

 

[hawkeyetillidie]

GR is returning a strong group from this years "overrated" team. Lose a good scorer in Gienger, 1 mid, 1 defenseman, with a good group of athletes coming up. Should be another fun year.

 

[cidhawkeye]

They had to help attendance and the gate revenue. With no real extra expense to the IHSAA except for another set of refs. Which also gave the best refs additional valuable experience and pay. Would love to see those games brought back and played at the same time as the Championship games. Would even help get the top players back on site at Cownie on the final day for the all tournament team awards.

Were the players excited about the game? Were they good, competitive games?
Some may struggle with motivation after missing their goal of a championship. Still always better to end on an odd number.

 

[JMSBFD]

My oldest cherished his third place game as a senior. Who doesn't want to go out with a win?

 

[Pinehawk]

Are the games today broadcast? Or, are just the Finals being broadcast? Anyone know?

 

[UCKights87]

Only the final. What a pathetic display from the association. The girls had all their games streamed.

 

[rc1963]

Are the games today broadcast? Or, are just the Finals being broadcast? Anyone know?

Supposedly here: https://www.ihssn.com/soccer

and supposedly the final is free - getting around this site is awkward at best.

 

[Pinehawk]

Only the final. What a pathetic display from the association. The girls had all their games streamed.

Perhaps that's what I should have expected from an organization that couldn't even get the state banners to the substate final games on time this year.

 

[UCKights87]

Western Christian takes down BND 1-0 in the rematch from last years final.

 

[rc1963]

Western Christian takes down BND 1-0 in the rematch from last years final.

Wow,

And WL dives into the semis. Worst call ever

 

[Pinehawk]

I couldn't find video of the foul resulting in the West Liberty OT PK. Anyone have it?
It takes a great ref to do a WL game, because they will put refs in a tough spot every game in regards to PK calls...

Decided to check the varsity bound PK stats on the final four teams:
PK's made:
West Liberty - 11
Western Christian -6
Assumption - 4
Beckman - -2 (-2? well, this is wrong, I know they have at least 1).

Yep, so WL has almost double the amount of PK's as the next closest team. 11 PK's in 17 games.,