I've been breaking down the playoff situation for 3A over on that board the last couple of weeks. Then I got involved in the talk about Waterloo West in 4A District 5, so I thought, hey, why not knock out a little something for 4A?
Here's what I got:
DISTRICT 1
DISTRICT 2
Here's what I got:
DISTRICT 1
Waukee has won the district.
Johnston can finish second with a win over Sioux City East. Lose, and they can get in a three-way points tiebreaker if Des Moines Roosevelt beats Des Moines East.
Des Moines Roosevelt can get in that tiebreaker with a win and a Johnston loss; they'd have to win by at least 12 and hope Johnston loses big to have any chance.
Sioux City East can finish second with a win over Johnston and a Roosevelt loss; they really have no shot if a Roosevelt win forces a tiebreaker.
Johnston can finish second with a win over Sioux City East. Lose, and they can get in a three-way points tiebreaker if Des Moines Roosevelt beats Des Moines East.
Des Moines Roosevelt can get in that tiebreaker with a win and a Johnston loss; they'd have to win by at least 12 and hope Johnston loses big to have any chance.
Sioux City East can finish second with a win over Johnston and a Roosevelt loss; they really have no shot if a Roosevelt win forces a tiebreaker.
DISTRICT 2
Dowling is in the playoffs and will win the district with a win over Ames. If they end up in a three-way tie, they'll still win the district unless they lose by 12 or more.
Ankeny Centennial will finish second with a Dowling win. With a win over Sioux City West plus a Dowling loss, they'd be in a three-way tiebreak, but if they win by 3 or more, Ames can't catch them. They'd have to hope Dowling loses by 12 or more and they win by enough points to catch the Maroons to win the district.
Ames wins the district if they beat Dowling and Centennial loses. A win plus a Centennial win puts them into a three-way tiebreak, but they can't catch Dowling in points, so they have to hope to beat Dowling by 17 and have Centennial win by 2 or less to edge out Centennial for second.
DISTRICT 3Ankeny Centennial will finish second with a Dowling win. With a win over Sioux City West plus a Dowling loss, they'd be in a three-way tiebreak, but if they win by 3 or more, Ames can't catch them. They'd have to hope Dowling loses by 12 or more and they win by enough points to catch the Maroons to win the district.
Ames wins the district if they beat Dowling and Centennial loses. A win plus a Centennial win puts them into a three-way tiebreak, but they can't catch Dowling in points, so they have to hope to beat Dowling by 17 and have Centennial win by 2 or less to edge out Centennial for second.
Ankeny is in, and can win the district by defeating Urbandale.
Urbandale wins the district with a win over Ankeny. They are in the playoffs if Lewis Central loses, or wins by less than 6 points.
Lewis Central is in with a win plus an Ankeny win plus a CB Thomas Jefferson loss. Should CBTJ win, Lewis Central needs to win by 7 points or more to have a shot in the tiebreaker.
Council Bluffs Thomas Jefferson can get in a tiebreaker, but they have no shot at making the top two via points.
DISTRICT 4Urbandale wins the district with a win over Ankeny. They are in the playoffs if Lewis Central loses, or wins by less than 6 points.
Lewis Central is in with a win plus an Ankeny win plus a CB Thomas Jefferson loss. Should CBTJ win, Lewis Central needs to win by 7 points or more to have a shot in the tiebreaker.
Council Bluffs Thomas Jefferson can get in a tiebreaker, but they have no shot at making the top two via points.
West Des Moines Valley has won the district.
Southeast Polk will finish second.
DISTRICT 5Southeast Polk will finish second.
Waterloo West is in, and wins the district by beating Cedar Rapids Washington.
Cedar Rapids Washington is in with a win. They can win the district by beating Waterloo West by 6 points or more.
Cedar Falls is in with a win over Waterloo East plus a Cedar Rapids Washington loss.
DISTRICT 6Cedar Rapids Washington is in with a win. They can win the district by beating Waterloo West by 6 points or more.
Cedar Falls is in with a win over Waterloo East plus a Cedar Rapids Washington loss.
Western Dubuque is in with a win over Hempstead, and wins the district with a win plus a North Scott loss to Davenport West. They'd still end up in a three- or four-way tie for a playoff spot with a loss.
North Scott wins the district with a win. They finish second with a loss plus a Western Dubuque win. If they both lose, there'd be a four-way tie.
Pleasant Valley can get in a tiebreaker with a win over Dubuque Senior plus a Western Dubuque loss.
Dubuque Senior can get in that tiebreaker with a win over Pleasant Valley plus a Western Dubuque loss.
Dubuque Hempstead is out. While they can get into a tie with a win over Western Dubuque, they are desperately out of the race in points.
DISTRICT 7North Scott wins the district with a win. They finish second with a loss plus a Western Dubuque win. If they both lose, there'd be a four-way tie.
Pleasant Valley can get in a tiebreaker with a win over Dubuque Senior plus a Western Dubuque loss.
Dubuque Senior can get in that tiebreaker with a win over Pleasant Valley plus a Western Dubuque loss.
Dubuque Hempstead is out. While they can get into a tie with a win over Western Dubuque, they are desperately out of the race in points.
Bettendorf has won the district.
Iowa City High will finish second.
DISTRICT 8Iowa City High will finish second.
Cedar Rapids Prairie is in; worst-case scenario is a loss to Cedar Rapids Kennedy plus an Iowa City West win, which brings about a three-way tie, but Prairie cannot end up third in points. They win the district with a win, and finish second with a loss plus an Iowa City West loss.
Cedar Rapids Kennedy can win the district by beating Prairie if Iowa City West loses to Ottumwa - wins by both bring about a tie, but if Kennedy wins by 11 or more, West can't get in the top two.
Iowa City West is in if Prairie beats Kennedy. A win by Kennedy means West has to defeat Ottumwa by at least 7 more points than Kennedy's margin over Prairie.
Cedar Rapids Kennedy can win the district by beating Prairie if Iowa City West loses to Ottumwa - wins by both bring about a tie, but if Kennedy wins by 11 or more, West can't get in the top two.
Iowa City West is in if Prairie beats Kennedy. A win by Kennedy means West has to defeat Ottumwa by at least 7 more points than Kennedy's margin over Prairie.
