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Playoff Predictions Heading into Week 9

UnionFootballFan

Freshman
Oct 16, 2010
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Let me know if I missed anything...

District #1

#1 - BHRV
#2 - Sioux Center
Bubble - Sheldon; Pt. Differential ~+8

District #2
#1 - Clear Lake
#2 - New Hampton
Note - New Hampton @ Clear Lake for D2 title. If New Hampton loses, a three way tie for second. Giving the point tiebreaker to New Hampton.
Bubble - Cresco & Osage, edge to Cresco w/ pt. differential ~+4-5.

District #3
#1 - A-P
#2 - Dike
Bubble - West Marshall and Rolland Story who will play each other in Week 9. Giving edge to West Marshall w/ pt. differential ~5-6.

District #4
#1 - Cascade
#2 - Waukon
Bubble - Union. Union can force a 3-way tie with a win against Cascade in Week 9, letting all three teams into the playoffs. With a loss, Union has a chance at a wildcard with a pt. differential of about +~7-9.

District #5
#1 - Mt. Vernon
#2 - West Liberty
Bubble - Williamsburg. Very interesting district. Williamsburg has to play at Mt. Vernon, and I like Mt. Vernon in that game. That creates a two way tie for 2nd, with West Liberty holding the tiebreaker. Williamsburg will be in a good position for a wildcard spot with a pt. differential of ~+9-11.

District #6
#1 - PCM
#2 - Centerville
Bubble - Central Lee, w/ a point differential of ~+5-6.

District #7
#1 - South Central Calhoun
#2 - Kuemper
Bubble - East Sac plays at South Central Calhoun. If East Sac wins, it creates a 3-way tie for 1st and ensures all three takes make the playoffs. I don't see that happening as SCC should beat East Sac. East Sac becomes a bubble team with a pt. differential of ~+6-8.

WILD CARDS
1st Wildcard - Williamsburg (est. pt. differential of +9-11).
2nd Wildcard - Sheldon (est. pt. differential of +8).
First Out - Union (est. pt. differential of ~+7-9). Union needs to either win, hope for a close loss, or hope for Sheldon to get upset/win by single digits.
Second Out - East Sac (est. pt. differential of ~+6-8). East Sac. needs to either win, hope for a close loss, hope for a significant Union loss, etc.
 
Great work! Thanks. Only addition I have to add is if Williamsburg could beat Mount Vernon, West Liberty would top out at 7.15 or so in points. If Sheldon gets in and Clear Lake wins it gives 6 teams in the West.
Kuemper at Boyden Hull
Sioux Center at South Central Calhoun
Sheldon at Clear Lake.
Now the only question is who are the other 2 teams that will be in the West Bracket? It gets tricky because the state will take into consideration potential 2nd round match ups. For example they won’t have a potential matchup of Centerville vs Boyden-Hull. If Sheldon gets in that will in my opinion move Centerville and Prairie City Monroe to the East.
 
Southeast valley plays at kuemper and if Scc beats east sac and SV beats Kuemper then it would be a 3 way tie for 2nd. pts would be used i believe with sv out and kuemper would get in with win over east sac!
 
Let me know if I missed anything...

District #1

#1 - BHRV
#2 - Sioux Center
Bubble - Sheldon; Pt. Differential ~+8

District #2
#1 - Clear Lake
#2 - New Hampton
Note - New Hampton @ Clear Lake for D2 title. If New Hampton loses, a three way tie for second. Giving the point tiebreaker to New Hampton.
Bubble - Cresco & Osage, edge to Cresco w/ pt. differential ~+4-5.

District #3
#1 - A-P
#2 - Dike
Bubble - West Marshall and Rolland Story who will play each other in Week 9. Giving edge to West Marshall w/ pt. differential ~5-6.

District #4
#1 - Cascade
#2 - Waukon
Bubble - Union. Union can force a 3-way tie with a win against Cascade in Week 9, letting all three teams into the playoffs. With a loss, Union has a chance at a wildcard with a pt. differential of about +~7-9.

District #5
#1 - Mt. Vernon
#2 - West Liberty
Bubble - Williamsburg. Very interesting district. Williamsburg has to play at Mt. Vernon, and I like Mt. Vernon in that game. That creates a two way tie for 2nd, with West Liberty holding the tiebreaker. Williamsburg will be in a good position for a wildcard spot with a pt. differential of ~+9-11.

District #6
#1 - PCM
#2 - Centerville
Bubble - Central Lee, w/ a point differential of ~+5-6.

District #7
#1 - South Central Calhoun
#2 - Kuemper
Bubble - East Sac plays at South Central Calhoun. If East Sac wins, it creates a 3-way tie for 1st and ensures all three takes make the playoffs. I don't see that happening as SCC should beat East Sac. East Sac becomes a bubble team with a pt. differential of ~+6-8.

WILD CARDS
1st Wildcard - Williamsburg (est. pt. differential of +9-11).
2nd Wildcard - Sheldon (est. pt. differential of +8).
First Out - Union (est. pt. differential of ~+7-9). Union needs to either win, hope for a close loss, or hope for Sheldon to get upset/win by single digits.
Second Out - East Sac (est. pt. differential of ~+6-8). East Sac. needs to either win, hope for a close loss, hope for a significant Union loss, etc.
District 1 - BHRV and Sioux Center are set 1-2 in this district barring some unforeseen upset next Friday.
District 2 - Lot up for grabs but gets cleared up when Clear Lake beats New Hampton to set 1-2 in this district with New Hampton winning second place tiebreakers over Osage and Crestwood who will both win Friday.
District 3 - AP and DNH, this district is also pretty much set.
District 4 - Cascade will beat Union to finish first, Waukon beats N Fayette to finish second.
District 5 - Williamsburg beats Mt Vernon, they finish 1-2 in district.
District 6 - This district is set with PCM and Centerville 1-2.
District 7 - SC Calhoun beats East Sac to finish 1st, Kuemper Cath 2nd.

Wildcards #1 will be Sheldon, who should be able to defeat Cherokee by 17+ points Friday, giving them an avg pt diff of 8.00.
Wildcard #2 will go to West Liberty who should also win by 17+ points on Friday, putting them right behind Sheldon with a avg pt diff of just over 7.00.

Union (4.5ish), East Sac (5.3ish), Crestwood (4.5ish), and Central Lee (5.3ish) all come up just short on avg pt diff and miss the playoffs this season.
 
A question for you guys. In 2A District 3 If East Marshall beat DNH and West Marshall beats Roland Story. That would create a 3 way tie. Is the tiebreaker only point differential or does head to head matter. East Marshall and Dike both beat West Marshall
 
If East Marshall beats DNH & West Marshall beats Roland-Story then East Marshall would qualify as the runner-up because they would've beaten both DNH & WM head to head.
If a tie exists between 3 or more schools for the district runner-up, and one school defeated the others head to head, they will be the district runner-up
 
If East Marshall beats DNH & West Marshall beats Roland-Story then East Marshall would qualify as the runner-up because they would've beaten both DNH & WM head to head.
If a tie exists between 3 or more schools for the district runner-up, and one school defeated the others head to head, they will be the district runner-up

Yeah I wasn’t thinking, thanks
 
How does this work for the wild card team. Who would they have to face in the first round?

Geography drives it. It depends on where the wild card teams are and who around them made the playoffs. They really create match ups that limit travel and keep each part of the state represented as much as possible.
 
In district #2 if Osage loses to GHV which is a real possibility then Crestwood would get the #2 spot with their win over New Hampton.
 
In district #2 if Osage loses to GHV which is a real possibility then Crestwood would get the #2 spot with their win over New Hampton.
If that happens then New Hampton will be in the running for the Wild Card if they can keep it close with Clear Lake.
 
Does anyone know if they are doing that playoff pairings show again this year on Saturday morning? I know before last year the IHSAA would release it at like midnight. I haven't heard or seen anything yet so I thought I would ask if anyone else has. Thanks!
 
No show this year, they will be posted by 2:00 am online, so apparently the boys in Boone do their work in a bar.

As for Doc's prediction about NH beating Clear Lake I am not sure that I see it, but if there is a team in that district that could do it, it would be them, as they tend to be the most fundamentally sound team year after year.
 
No show this year, they will be posted by 2:00 am online, so apparently the boys in Boone do their work in a bar.

If there was a rule that non-varsity games weren't allowed on the Friday of Week 9, then all the varsity games could kick at 7:00 or 7:30. The eastern 4A schools have sophomore games that push the varsity back an hour or more. So the varsity game doesn't get over until 11:15, and then maybe the coach/AD calls it in quickly (or maybe not).
 
So Williamsburg is in as the 1st Wildcard with a 9 ot differential it looks like. Sheldon and Union both have the exact same point differential. How is that tiebreaker decided?
 
Unless someone has the secret we might have to wait until 2 to find out. Imagine if they go alphabetically.
 
What makes you so confident?

Williamsburg got the first WC, then Union and Sheldon tied for the second. Tiebreaker this year comes down to reverse alphabetical, with U before S. Unless my math is off for point differential or my understanding of tiebreaker rules is off, I think the nod goes to Union.
 
Wow. Coming down to alphabetical is a tough way to go out.

Yeah, that's why I'm a fan of the previous playoff format (more teams). Would rather let a few extra teams in than stop a deserving team from getting in. If Union was left out that would be tough to swallow since both losses were close and to top 5 teams.
 
Sheldon (+8.0 pt diff) looking back at that first district game in September vs MOCFV. Won by 6 points and that was only other game/win where they could have picked up additional point differential. All other wins were by 17+, losses to BHRV -17 pt diff and Sioux Center -1 pt diff. Sure, a win over Sioux Center would have put the Orabs in and Sioux Center out (Sioux Center pt diff of just over +5 btw...). Great season but tough for anyone to go out on alpha tie breaker. Coaching 101--- if you aren't up by 17+ points in a game, you want to be. And in a losing situation, if you can score to get the point diff under 17, you should. Just goes to show that every game, every quarter, every minute, every point matters. Playoffs should be fun, just not for Sheldon this year.
 
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Sheldon was up 40-27 in the 4th against Sioux Center, and gave up 2 TDs. No one to blame but themselves.
 
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