Boy howdy, did a LOT of questions get cleared up with the results from last Friday. By my count, 11 of the 16 playoff spots are filled (although in some cases we're still deciding between district champion and second place). That includes one of the four at-large spots, as by my thinking there's no way all three of Indianola/Bondurant-Farrar/Norwalk don't get in, by RPI if not by district finish (that's a bit of an assumption on my part, hopefully I'll have a better guess tomorrow when the new RPIs come out).
Let's dig in!
This one is easy. Webster City has won the district. Spencer has locked down second.
This one is also pretty easy. The winner of Waverly-Shell Rock and Decorah wins the district. The loser will be second.
North Scott has won the district title.
Burlington takes second by beating Fort Madison. A Fort Madison win plus an Iowa City Liberty loss gives second place to Fort Madison. If both Fort Madison and Liberty win, it's a three-way tie decided by RPI (which probably gives the spot to Fort Madison).
Xavier has won the district championship.
Pella takes second with a win over Cedar Rapids Washington.
If Cedar Rapids Washington beats Pella plus a Clear Creek Amana loss to Newton, Washington takes second place. Newton is definitely in the running for an at-large spot with a win.
A Clear Creek Amana win plus a Pella loss creates a three-way tie, decided by RPI. That almost certainly would go to CCA.
As mentioned above, I think all three of Indianola/Bondurant-Farrar/Norwalk get in, two by district finish and the other by RPI - unless things changed a lot from last week's results.
A Norwalk win over Bondurant-Farrar gives them the district title. Even with a loss, they'll finish second if both Indianola and Carlisle lose.
Indianola and Bondurant-Farrar are guaranteed playoff spots with wins. If they both win, Indianola takes the district title and Bondurant-Farrar is second.
A Bondurant-Farrar win plus an Indianola loss gives Bondurant-Farrar the district crown.
The tricky outcome - Bondurant-Farrar beats Norwalk, Boone defeats Indianola, and Carlisle wins over Perry. That gives B/F the district title and creates a tie for second between Indianola, Norwalk, and Carlisle, decided by RPI.
Another easy one: the winner of the Winterset vs Lewis Central game takes the district title. The loser is second.
So, here's last week's RPIs for the teams that aren't guaranteed a playoff spot yet, but may have a chance. For my guess for the four at-large spots:
Let's dig in!
DISTRICT 1
This one is easy. Webster City has won the district. Spencer has locked down second.
DISTRICT 2
This one is also pretty easy. The winner of Waverly-Shell Rock and Decorah wins the district. The loser will be second.
DISTRICT 3
North Scott has won the district title.
Burlington takes second by beating Fort Madison. A Fort Madison win plus an Iowa City Liberty loss gives second place to Fort Madison. If both Fort Madison and Liberty win, it's a three-way tie decided by RPI (which probably gives the spot to Fort Madison).
DISTRICT 4
Xavier has won the district championship.
Pella takes second with a win over Cedar Rapids Washington.
If Cedar Rapids Washington beats Pella plus a Clear Creek Amana loss to Newton, Washington takes second place. Newton is definitely in the running for an at-large spot with a win.
A Clear Creek Amana win plus a Pella loss creates a three-way tie, decided by RPI. That almost certainly would go to CCA.
DISTRICT 5
As mentioned above, I think all three of Indianola/Bondurant-Farrar/Norwalk get in, two by district finish and the other by RPI - unless things changed a lot from last week's results.
A Norwalk win over Bondurant-Farrar gives them the district title. Even with a loss, they'll finish second if both Indianola and Carlisle lose.
Indianola and Bondurant-Farrar are guaranteed playoff spots with wins. If they both win, Indianola takes the district title and Bondurant-Farrar is second.
A Bondurant-Farrar win plus an Indianola loss gives Bondurant-Farrar the district crown.
The tricky outcome - Bondurant-Farrar beats Norwalk, Boone defeats Indianola, and Carlisle wins over Perry. That gives B/F the district title and creates a tie for second between Indianola, Norwalk, and Carlisle, decided by RPI.
DISTRICT 6
Another easy one: the winner of the Winterset vs Lewis Central game takes the district title. The loser is second.
So, here's last week's RPIs for the teams that aren't guaranteed a playoff spot yet, but may have a chance. For my guess for the four at-large spots:
- One of the D-5 teams
- Clear Creek Amana with a win plus a Pella win (CCA takes second if Pella loses); Newton with a win over CCA
- Fort Dodge, probably, with a win
- Then I don't know ... how far does Fort Madison drop with a loss to Burlington, how far does Oskaloosa climb with an upset of Xavier, does Newton drop out if they lose, where does Western Dubuque fit in? A lot of questions and RPI can be complicated if you don't set up a spreadsheet ahead of time (which I haven't).
- North Scott (in)
- Xavier (in)
- 3rd overall: Bondurant-Farrar .6596 (lost to Indianola, so only a small hit; play Norwalk next)
- 4th overall: Indianola .6411 (beat B/F, so they'll probably move into 3rd; play Boone next)
- 5th overall: Norwalk .6376 (lost to Carlisle, so they'll drop some; play Bondurant-Farrar next)
- Waverly-Shell Rock (in)
- Winterset (in)
- 8th overall: Clear Creek Amana .6032 (lost to Pella, a little hit; play Newton next)
- 9th overall: Fort Madison .5904 (lost to North Scott, a small hit; play Burlington next)
- Lewis Central (in)
- Webster City (in)
- Decorah (in)
- 13th overall: Newton .5696 (lost to Xavier, a small hit; play Clear Creek Amana next)
- Spencer (in)
- 15th overall: Fort Dodge .5496 (beat Denison-Schleswig; play LeMars next)
- 16th overall: Pella .5487 (beat Clear Creek Amana, probably moving above Fort Dodge; play CR Wash next)
- 17th overall: Western Dubuque .5456 (lost to Waverly-Shell Rock, so a little drop; play Mason City next)
- 18th overall: Burlington .5441 (moved above W. Dubuque with a win over Liberty; play Fort Madison next)
- 19th overall: Oskaloosa .5291 (lost to CR Washington, probably dropped quite a bit; play Xavier next)
- 20th overall: LeMars .5207 (lost to Spencer; play Fort Dodge next)
