Move from 4A to 3A

[loco60]

Two of the three teams have been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The remaining team is 7-3 with losses against a 4A opponent, a 3A opponent and a 1A opponent.

Lots of predictions about playoff dominance that won't come fully true this year. One team can still march deep into the playoffs, but the other two are starting winter sports.

 

[bcmoore87]

Class N Mean Stdev
4A 46 152.61 24.31
3A 56 147.13 18.00
2A 56 135.90 22.15
1A 56 129.95 23.56
A 62 116.91 22.53
8 64 69.30 29.80


Average 3A team is only 5.5 points less than the average 4A team.



However, you will notice that the 4A teams are highest in standard deviation: the best teams in 4A are very, very good and the worst teams in 4A are very, very bad.



Interesting also is the big gap between (3A and 2A) and also between (1A and A).



Standard deviation is lowest in 3A -- best probability overall for competitive games.






Edit: fixed multiple grammar problems.



This post was edited on 10/30 9:02 PM by bcmoore87

 

[EastIowaHawk]

I agree with BC's numbers that suggest an awful lot of 3A teams are just about as good or better than an awful lot of 4A teams. I've watched 4A football for most of my life, and when my alma mater (Dub. Wahlert) went to 3A this year I got a chance to see 3A Solon, West Delaware, CR Xavier, Western Dubuque, Assumption, etc. and for the life of me these 3A teams don't look much different from the teams I'm used to watching in the MVC. Sure- the top of the top 4A schools are mostly stronger because of numbers, but after one omits the half-dozen top powerhouse 4A programs, it's awfully hard for me, for example, to tell a Solon from a Dub. Hempstead or a Waverly from a West Waterloo or a CR Prairie. Kids are kids and team strength often comes down to good coaching, conditioning and school/community support. Like 3A and 4A basketball, in Iowa teams strengths are a lot closer than a lot of people think. Just my opinion.

 

[Vroom_C14]

Originally posted by loco60:
Two of the three teams have been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The remaining team is 7-3 with losses against a 4A opponent, a 3A opponent and a 1A opponent.

Lots of predictions about playoff dominance that won't come fully true this year. One team can still march deep into the playoffs, but the other two are starting winter sports.

Wahlert wasn't predicted to do much in 3A - but yet they had one of their best seasons in years. Xavier is still very much in the hunt (which is THE one everyone clamoured about - even the press...).



By Douglas Miles, The Gazette

October 30, 2014 | 9:25 pm



CEDAR RAPIDS - When it was announced two-time Class 4A state runner-up Cedar Rapids Xavier was dropping down a class, it was widely assumed the Saints would run roughshod through 3A.

One game into the Class 3A playoffs, and the assumption holds.

Still have to play the game, one off night (like CRX vs WDub) and you can get beat.

 

[PNation]

Xavier is going to be an extremely tough out, they lost to Dowling which is the best team in the state overall, Regina which may be 5th or 6th overall if not higher, and then played a terrible game and lost to Western Dubuque which is something that can happen play one terrible game and have a slip up. When Xavier can dress 100 kids and play 3A ball they are going to be tough, just by the look I am sure they are getting in practice. 35-6 over Charles City is a lot more impressive than many people would give credit for. Xavier could have an off night but I really see them in at least the title game.

 

[loco60]

I'll agree that Dubuque Wahlert wasn't the focus of the conversation about 3A playoff domination, but Assumption and Xavier both were. To go out in the first round isn't the type of playoff domination that folks were expecting out of Assumption. As for Xavier, I would not bet against them making a third consecutive trip to the UNIDome.

If Xavier were still in 4A, they would have to be up against the likes of CRW, LM, Bettendorf and PV (the number one seeds). In 2013 they were defeated by CRW and managed wins against LM and Bettendorf. I think Xavier would be a quarterfinal team in 4A, with a chance of how the ball bounces for a return trip to the UNIDome. However, they are in 3A and the prospects are similar.

All in all, I don't think that 3A versus 4A is all that much of a difference with regard to playoff progress.

 

[cruhawk]

Originally posted by EastIowaHawk:
I agree with BC's numbers that suggest an awful lot of 3A teams are just about as good or better than an awful lot of 4A teams. I've watched 4A football for most of my life, and when my alma mater (Dub. Wahlert) went to 3A this year I got a chance to see 3A Solon, West Delaware, CR Xavier, Western Dubuque, Assumption, etc. and for the life of me these 3A teams don't look much different from the teams I'm used to watching in the MVC. Sure- the top of the top 4A schools are mostly stronger because of numbers, but after one omits the half-dozen top powerhouse 4A programs, it's awfully hard for me, for example, to tell a Solon from a Dub. Hempstead or a Waverly from a West Waterloo or a CR Prairie. Kids are kids and team strength often comes down to good coaching, conditioning and school/community support. Like 3A and 4A basketball, in Iowa teams strengths are a lot closer than a lot of people think. Just my opinion.

Great post. And anyone who's seen the top 3A teams (ie the titleists) play knows that they would (most years) have at least a decent shot at the 4A champ. The biggest difference is often numbers & a little depth.

 

[cruhawk]

Originally posted by loco60:
Two of the three teams have been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The remaining team is 7-3 with losses against a 4A opponent, a 3A opponent and a 1A opponent.

Lots of predictions about playoff dominance that won't come fully true this year. One team can still march deep into the playoffs, but the other two are starting winter sports.

One year does not a pattern make.

Heelan's first year in 3A (2006) happened to coincide with their weakest team in many, many years (maybe decades). '06 was also the year that Le Mars & Spencer had perhaps their best teams ever. But look at what's happened since. Don't lament the new 3A schools first year in that class. Like Heelan, those schools have an inherent advantage over all of the rest of 3A....being private schools in larger metropolitan areas gives them access to a different type of athlete than their smaller-town opponents. Informed observers say they look more like upper-level 4A teams most of the time. That's an inherent structural advantage that's not going to change. You'll be seeing Xavier and Assumption (and Wahlert, if they ever decide) in the East regularly vying with Heelan in the West for all the 3A marbles much more often than not.

 

[smallcenter]

So if you can win in 4A, but choose to play in 3A, isn't that like winning a J/V championship?

 

[loco60]

The sequence was:
Western 4A Districts
MAC asked IHSAA to look at Eastern Districts
MVC released Dubuque Wahlert from football membership
Xavier indicated desire to play within its enrollment classification, released from MVC football membership
MVC dissolves football in favor of districts

 

[KidSilverhair]

That's exactly correct, loco. It was several schools in the MAC who raised the topic of districts again last year, after the east side 4A schools managed to stay in conferences in 2012. I clearly remember the very first I heard of this, when a Gazette reporter and the Xavier AD were discussing it at the Xavier-LinnMar game the last week of the 2013 season. They were talking about the MAC asking the state that week to reconsider setting up districts for 4A statewide.

I have heard Assumption was a main driver of that request, but that's only hearsay. I don't know what other MAC schools might have been in favor of that.

If not for that request, most likely the MAC and MVC would have continued. I do know for a fact the 2014-15 MVC football schedules were already drawn up. Now, I've also heard speculation that Assumption might have dropped to 3A on their own, but that's only a rumor. I also know Wahlert was very unhappy playing a 4A schedule (note they were the first to ask for permission to leave MVC football), but I don't know if they might have left without the topic of 4A districts being broached.

The MVC and MAC might have been able to survive even without Assumption, Wahlert and Xavier (Xavier's position was, we'll stay in the MVC if it remains as is, but Wahlert's departure made that moot). That would have required the schools agreeing on cross-conference games, but there were several who refused to do that.

Bottom line: If there's no longer a conference that requires 4A football play, why would any school volunteer to play up in a class with larger schools? It's not a matter of "varsity" and "JV." The state sets classifications based on your enrollment. You don't like that, ask the state to change the rules (and sure, I realize a lot of critics are doing just that. And there are valid arguments being made about adjusting classes due to public/private or general program success). I think it's asking a lot to say, hey, you proved you could be a good team in 4A, even though you're really a 3A school, why are wimping out playing a puny JV 3A schedule? There are really good teams in 3A, and 2A, and 1A, who are in that class because of their enrollment. Calling them "JV" is an insult.

 

[loco60]

The bottom lines are many:
Eastern Iowa Football in 4A had won 4 out 14 titles since 2000. Bettendorf, ICH, CRX and CF represented the east side multiple appearances in the championship game (CRW had 1).
The MAC and MVC didn't do anything to adapt to the potential competition of district football. They could have.
Dubuque Wahlert had to address a non-competitive situation.
Nobody else in the State was playing above their enrollment classification, except DA, DW and CRX.

And after it all happened:
DW continued to play DS and DH. That's good.
DA played Bettendorf. That's good.
CRX played WDMD. That's good.
CRX played ICR. That's good.
CRX and DA both played DW (district game for CRX and DW). That's good.
CR Metro Schools did NOT play CRX, by choice. They preferred 4A competition, there choice.

Seems like DA, DW and CRX acted in accord with the best interests of their respective communities and in alignment with district play dictated by the State. But there is not evidence to suggest that any of these schools attempted to opt for a "JV" schedule. CRX played WDMD and ICR, both of whom may go deep into the playoffs. DA played Bettendorf, a team that remains unbeaten in 4A. DW played both in-town 4A schools.

It would appear that the move from 4A to 3A was logical, was executed well by all three schools and has resulted in fun seasons for their fans, players and schools.

 

[PNation]

Speaking of JV, I was thinking about JV schedules, there is no rule that a 3A school plays any under varsity game with it's district opponents, no curtain raiser, or Thursday or Monday night JV game, most just do it because it is the easiest way to find these game. I wonder if it would be public 3A schools best interest to not play Xavier, Assumption, and Heelan in any JV games and see how their programs do with this, yes this would be a complete Jerk move, but it may force these schools back up to 4A, if they are struggling to get a schedule together for their younger kids.

Just a thought

I didn't mention Wahlert because I heard that they were struggling to put younger teams together

 

[KidSilverhair]

I don't get it. You want the public schools to conspire together to NOT play private schools as far as sophomore/JV/freshman teams go, just in an effort to force the private schools back up a class? That's worse than a jerk move. That's downright classless. Who will these public school JV teams play in their place? Or are you suggesting they just lose a game out of, what? Spite?

As far as Xavier goes, the other schools on their schedule, in District 4 as well as their parochial non-district opponents, all agreed to play sophomore games prior to the varsity game on Friday nights. Xavier's freshman team did have to get games with North Scott and Iowa City West to complete their schedule, as not all the opponents on the varsity schedule had a freshman game available.

Look, I've said this before and I will say it again. Xavier's enrollment makes them a 3A school, just like Assumption, Wahlert and Heelan. If you don't like that, I understand, but it's not those schools' fault. That's the state classification.

Asking these teams to play up is kind of like saying, hey, those SEC teams are always winning national championships. They better move to the NFL, because they obviously don't fit in the NCAA!

 

[loco60]

These are kids playing football. The adults in the room need to step up a bit.

In Cedar Rapids, the 8th graders play amongst all the schools in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, except Cedar Valley Christian (8-man). In 9th grade, the schedule begins to align with districts somewhat, but used to be the CRANDIC league, and still could be. At the sophomore level, the games have been twinned with the varsity contests, except in the case where there are concerns about field conditions. And the playoffs don't feature sophomore contests.

The schools in this post played 4A for 14 years. Those schools weren't responsible for the demise of the MVC or MAC.

What is the problem with just letting the kids play?

 

[loco60]

Excuse me...for beyond 14 years. Xavier was from 1998 through 2013 and the others longer.

 

[Vroom_C14]

Originally posted by KidSilverhair:
I don't get it. You want the public schools to conspire together to NOT play private schools as far as sophomore/JV/freshman teams go, just in an effort to force the private schools back up a class? That's worse than a jerk move. That's downright classless. Who will these public school JV teams play in their place? Or are you suggesting they just lose a game out of, what? Spite?

As far as Xavier goes, the other schools on their schedule, in District 4 as well as their parochial non-district opponents, all agreed to play sophomore games prior to the varsity game on Friday nights. Xavier's freshman team did have to get games with North Scott and Iowa City West to complete their schedule, as not all the opponents on the varsity schedule had a freshman game available.

Look, I've said this before and I will say it again. Xavier's enrollment makes them a 3A school, just like Assumption, Wahlert and Heelan. If you don't like that, I understand, but it's not those schools' fault. That's the state classification.

Asking these teams to play up is kind of like saying, hey, those SEC teams are always winning national championships. They better move to the NFL, because they obviously don't fit in the NCAA!

They weren't asked to play up - they did that all on their own. Then they all suddenly had an epiphany that they should be playing at their "BEDS" level.

Didn't the Metro schools snub Xavier for non-conference games this year? I wonder how long that will last?

 

[KidSilverhair]

Sigh. This is the deal, folks.

Xavier and Wahlert played 4A football so they could be members of the MVC in all sports. Assumption did the same so they could be in the MAC. Yes, it was a choice - but it was predicated on full conference membership.

As stated multiple times here, if the MVC had remained in its 14-team configuration, Xavier would still be a member playing a 4A schedule. That's regardless of what the MAC decided to do when they brought up districts last October. Unfortunately (at least in my opinion), that opened the door for Wahlert to request leaving the MVC in football only. Once that changed, Xavier also made their request.

The final result was the dissolution of the MVC and MAC, as far as football goes. Xavier and Wahlert only chose to play up to be a conference member. Without a conference left to belong to, why not play in your specified class?

I don't know if you can see it, but I recognize a difference in choosing to play up a class in order to be a member of a conference, as opposed to choosing to play up a class so you can be in 4A District 5.

 

[Vroom_C14]

Originally posted by KidSilverhair:
Sigh. This is the deal, folks.

Xavier and Wahlert played 4A football so they could be members of the MVC in all sports. Assumption did the same so they could be in the MAC. Yes, it was a choice - but it was predicated on full conference membership.

As stated multiple times here, if the MVC had remained in its 14-team configuration, Xavier would still be a member playing a 4A schedule. That's regardless of what the MAC decided to do when they brought up districts last October. Unfortunately (at least in my opinion), that opened the door for Wahlert to request leaving the MVC in football only. Once that changed, Xavier also made their request.

The final result was the dissolution of the MVC and MAC, as far as football goes. Xavier and Wahlert only chose to play up to be a conference member. Without a conference left to belong to, why not play in your specified class?

I don't know if you can see it, but I recognize a difference in choosing to play up a class in order to be a member of a conference, as opposed to choosing to play up a class so you can be in 4A District 5.

If they chose to play up to be in a conference what is the difference then in staying 4A and playing in a district? Still mostly the same teams, travel would be about the same as them being in 3A District play - the question I have heard over and over - why all of sudden now "choose to play at your enrollment"?

Heck even Schulte is on record saying "it's been great to have this success at the highest level". If that is the case then why not keep going for the brass ring at that level? To simply say "well this is where our BEDS puts us" doesn't jive with what he was quoted with saying (and with what several of the CRX community I have talked with feel).

I could care less - I'll keep cheering for my team whether it be against Public or Private.

Best of luck to all tonight!

 

[KidSilverhair]

If you can't see the difference between conference membership and being in a district, I don't know what else to say.

 

[loco60]

The rules for Class 4A used to dictate that members of the Mississippi Valley Conference participate in 4A, as well as other named conferences and schools with BEDS of 700 or above.

The choice made was to participate in the MVC in all of its sports. That changed this past year, as football changed to districts.

Hmmm, CRX made a competitive choice (lots of losing seasons in the beginning) and played in the MVC in all sports. The rules then change and CRX follows the rules. Mysterious stuff? No. CRX remains in the MVC for other sanctioned sports and participates in the associated class for most tournament play.

 

[Vroom_C14]

Originally posted by loco60:
The rules for Class 4A used to dictate that members of the Mississippi Valley Conference participate in 4A, as well as other named conferences and schools with BEDS of 700 or above.

The choice made was to participate in the MVC in all of its sports. That changed this past year, as football changed to districts.

Hmmm, CRX made a competitive choice (lots of losing seasons in the beginning) and played in the MVC in all sports. The rules then change and CRX follows the rules. Mysterious stuff? No. CRX remains in the MVC for other sanctioned sports and participates in the associated class for most tournament play.

Xavier plays 4A conf basketball, competes in 3A state basketball. Xavier competes in 3A conf soccer, competes in 2A state soccer, xavier competes in 4A\5A conf baseball\softball, then state 3A baseball and 4A softball. if you are playing the big boys and girls in conference play why not stay at that level for state? So Xavier is willing to play all of their other sports vs the largest class but now not football.

KidSilver - please explain the difference between Conference vs district football for me.I am seriousas well, i would like to understand it better.

 

[cidhawkeye]

I think Loco explained the district vs. conference thing. I am not real sure where the confusion is coming from. You play in the conference you play in and then play in at the level the state says you should play at. Back in the day our conference ranged in size from Regina to Linn Mar, Prairie, Beckman, LaSalle, Benton.

 

[loco60]

Conference football has been supplanted by district football. There used to be an IHSAA handbook rule for football which defined 4A as above 700 BEDS, as well as those schools who participated in named conferences. DA, DW and CRX participated in those conferences, thus became 4A.

The Western side of the state went to 4A district football, citing travel costs as amongst their reasons. The Eastern side did not, originally, go to 4A district football. The MVC had 14 teams and the MAC had 10 teams, and those 24 teams were put into a point system for playoff seeding. When the Eastern side went to districts, the IHSAA rules for districts then applied and are being used today.

At the time, many opined that Davenport Assumption and Cedar Rapids Xavier would battle for the championship slot each year. Perhaps CRX will, but DA is now out of the playoffs. My original post was that things were "pretty ordinary" for this given year.

As to choices, the big choices were made at the conference and district level; thereafter, schools adapted to the new guidance. Scheduling choices followed, with non-district games belying the preferences of the involved schools. The schedule is a two year duration, so for this year and next, the choices for scheduling are set. CRX approached some 4A schools about scheduling games, but only West Des Moines Dowling agreed to play. Davenport Assumption arranged a game with Bettendorf. Dubuque Wahlert arranged games with Dubuque Senior and Dubuque Hempstead.

In other sports, the MVC and MAC remain, interlaced with district tournament play at the appropriate classification. Seems to work out.

If the MVC and MAC wished to remain as conferences, they could've done so but they would've had to adapt to district schedules in some part, thus making it nigh impossible to recognize a conference champion/division champion. Practically won through.

This unfolding was predicted by many, opposed by many, speculated by many. As it turns out, it has gone okay. In the 3A district games tonight, I don't think there is a losing record amongst the remaining participants, with Webster City pulling even with a playoff win. In the 4A district games tonight, I think CRK is the only remaining losing record.

 

[KidSilverhair]

Originally posted by Vroom_C14:

Xavier plays 4A conf basketball, competes in 3A state basketball. Xavier competes in 3A conf soccer, competes in 2A state soccer, xavier competes in 4A\5A conf baseball\softball, then state 3A baseball and 4A softball. if you are playing the big boys and girls in conference play why not stay at that level for state? So Xavier is willing to play all of their other sports vs the largest class but now not football.

KidSilver - please explain the difference between Conference vs district football for me.I am seriousas well, i would like to understand it better.

Firstly, football doesn't allow you to enter the playoffs as your class, if you're playing in a different class for the regular season. I'm sure if the rules allowed it, Xavier would have played 3A football playoffs even as a member of the MVC - just as they did with all their other sports. But that's never how it worked.

Secondly, I don't know exactly how long the MVC had been around before the football part of it went kaplooie this year. I do know Xavier was a member ever since the school opened in 1998. Conferences have traditions, long-standing records, rivalries, history. You could look back in time and see which teams won division titles in the MVC, which players set individual records, which teams consistently beat or had trouble with other teams.

Districts change every two years. You think anybody remembers (or cares) who led 3A District 4 in rushing in 2008? Or who the all-time passing leader in District 5 is (which doesn't matter anyway, as I said, districts change every two years)?

Just like I said before, if you can't see the difference, I don't know what else to say.

 

[cruhawk]

Originally posted by smallcenter:
So if you can win in 4A, but choose to play in 3A, isn't that like winning a J/V championship?

Maybe. That's what many Heelan people thought of their move. The alums who were against the move to 3A were a significant majority. Didn't matter.

 

[Vroom_C14]

Thanks - I revisited Loco and your posts. I have a better grasp on the two.