Most overrated remaining team?

[CP84]

Last week I predicted SCC in an upset over Saint Ansgar and have been saying for weeks that SA is the most overrated undefeated team. With SA eliminated, I will now go to IKM Manning as the most overrated. I wouldn't call a West Lyon win an upset as many believe West Lyon to be the better team but I believe IKM is the most overrated remaining team according to the Register and BCMoore polls. Just going back to the 10/29 BCMoore poll, he had IKM as the 3rd best team in 1A. The problem is IKM has played a relatively weak schedule and they don't look great in head to head comparisons with remaining teams. Compare their ability to stop the run against FDSE using common opponents:

Rushing yards against vs Madrid:
IKM: 367 at 8.34 ypc
FDSE: 168 at 3.11 yypc

Against Manson:
IKM: 234 at 4.5
FDSE: 81 at 2.38

Against Avoca:
IKM: 118 at 3.27
FDSE: 82 at 2.83

If IKM struggled to contain the run to that degree they will have a very difficult time going deeper into the playoffs against two solid rushing teams in the Qtrs and semis should they make it that far.


Feel free to weigh in.BCMoore projects IKM as a slight favorite. I'll take WL tonight.

This post was edited on 11/7 7:03 PM by CP84

 

[bcmoore87]

facts, strong opinions, nice narrative -- what is not to like?

you definitely have me interested

 

[CP84]

If I had to pick every game throughout the season you would probably have a better success rate. I may get you this time but I certainly use your statistical analysis as a baseline for my projections.

 

[bcmoore87]

No criticism from me -- I thoroughly enjoy good insights.

You're certainly on track with this prediction so far.

Looking forward to your insights for the remaining part of the playoffs.

 

[CP84]

Originally posted by bcmoore87:
No criticism from me -- I thoroughly enjoy good insights.

You're certainly on track with this prediction so far.

Looking forward to your insights for the remaining part of the playoffs.

I see this as more of a matchup problem than anything else. If you take the 3 FDSE-IKM common opponents the margin of victory is fairly similar. FDSE beat those three by an average margin of 34 while IKM's was 28. That would certainly lead most to believe the teams would be fairly similar. I looked at defense vs the rush and noticed the large variance for each. FDSE shut down those teams running the ball while IKM gave up substantial yards but still managed to keep the opponents off the scoreboard.

Not stopping the run well in those games would make it quite a challenge to overcome a team like WL that does it very well and unlike Madrid, actually plays run defense at a high rate. Both Manson and Madrid surpassed their season ypc averages against IKM so it's easy to predict WL would have success there. I'm a little shocked by the score after 1 Qtr but I assumed this would be a game where WL would continue to have many mistake free sustained scoring drives while wearing out IKM's defense.


This post was edited on 11/7 8:12 PM by CP84

 

[80wolves]

Wind was the story of the 1st quarter. Two short IKMM punts and a fumble gave West Lyon short fields and momentum. Fairly even game after that, but that's a moot point. The better team won. Good luck to the semifinalists. Wish we were going to the Dome, but it was not to be.